autumn Autumn 2016

[sunnijim]

3rd day in a row where 30c has been reached and exceeded.

First time this has happened in September in 85yrs.

[Matthew.]

Hope I see one this time

[Yarmy]

21 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

3rd day in a row where 30c has been reached and exceeded.

First time this has happened in September in 85yrs.

Gravesend again!

[markyo]

Tomorrow is looking so much better,really looking forward to seeing the backend of this awful humid weather go,so tired of it,can't wait for the Autumn freshness to roll in,not a minute to soon. No idea how anybody could wish this to hang around,sorry.

[Weather-history]

Took time for cloud to burn off

 

[Nick L]

By far the most uncomfortable evening of the year, so close and muggy. Hurry up cold front!

[Methuselah]

6 minutes ago, Nick L said:

By far the most uncomfortable evening of the year, so close and muggy. Hurry up cold front!

I'm glad I'm not the only one: sweat, sweat, sweat, sweat!

[cheese]

12 minutes ago, Nick L said:

By far the most uncomfortable evening of the year, so close and muggy. Hurry up cold front!

ugh god no, tomorrow looks potentially awful - rain rain rain.

[Nick L]

3 minutes ago, cheese said:

ugh god no, tomorrow looks potentially awful - rain rain rain.

Followed by fresh, fresh, fresh

[cheese]

4 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Followed by fresh, fresh, fresh

Not worth it if it's cloudy, cloudy, cloudy!! 

If it's cloud all the time I'm going to be seriously annoyed. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

11 minutes ago, cheese said:

ugh god no, tomorrow looks potentially awful - rain rain rain.

yes, does look wet here tomorrow, would like weather of last 4 days!

[Summer Sun]

 

[Walsall Wood Snow]

10 hours ago, Gael_Force said:

Obviously you have not read the more recent research on the warm arctic leading to cold winters at mid latitudes or you wouldn't be making the quoted statement. It is not about the arctic being ice free in winter but about the changes to atmosphere patterns the lack of ice in autumn causes.

https://www.sheffield.ac.uk/geography/phd/projects/warmarctic

A brief summary but lots of research papers about the subject.

 

Hi Gael_Force. For some reason your quote from iappennel has appeared as a quote from me. I'm sure you know you have quoted him and not me though. Probably just because you quoted him from my post which had his post quoted in it (all a bit confusing I know), in which I asked whether he had any reason or not to have any faith in the September Glosea update, posted on here by CreweCold, which shows a blocked Winter pattern. He hasn't as yet answered, though I take it from his insistence that the odds are stacked against a cold Winter 2016/17 that he doesn't (not yet at least anyway). 

Though I do find the report you linked to interesting. There does seem to be contradictory speculation though on what a warmer Arctic means for our future Winter climate. Though as you say iappennell is basing his opinions on 13 year old research though, when other alternative opinions have since come forward. So who knows in all honestly. Though I do think the opinion of a warmer Arctic causing colder mid latitude Winters has come about mostly as an attempt to explain some of the colder Winters which have occurred in the populous regions of the mid latitudes since the late 00s, both here and in eastern North America.

As for what I think may happen (which has no scientific basis, so to be taken with a pinch of salt) is that due to relatively recent periods in the past when we have had 3 mild to very mild Winters in the past following a cold one, we have ended up with another colder or quite cold Winter following them. This happened after the cold Winter of 1986/87, which was followed by 3 very mild Winters, which in turn were followed by the cold Winter of 1990/91. Again a decade later we had the coldish Winter of 1996/97 which again was followed by 3 consecutive mild Winters which were followed by the coldish Winter of 2000/01. And being as Winter 2012/13 was a cold one which was also immediately followed by a very cold Spring and the 3 Winters which have so far succeeded it have been mild to very mild, maybe just maybe we'll get another cold one now at last. Then again what happened back then was probably nothing more than a coincidence and we'll end up with a fourth or more mild Winter this time. Though it's something which is giving me just a little hope and comfort at least. 

 

 

[damianslaw]

Gravesend is a law to itself, I'm surprised temps there can be 2 degrees warmer than anywhere else.. what is it with the place? 

Back to the hear and now, today marks the end of the recent hot weather. Have to say it feels very continental at the moment, like it does on a summer evening in the Med - all thanks to the dark skies, quite strange for mid September. 

Generally benign autumnal conditions for the foreseeable, gosh I find September a mind numbling dull month..

[Nick L]

7 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Gravesend is a law to itself, I'm surprised temps there can be 2 degrees warmer than anywhere else.. what is it with the place? 

Back to the hear and now, today marks the end of the recent hot weather. Have to say it feels very continental at the moment, like it does on a summer evening in the Med - all thanks to the dark skies, quite strange for mid September. 

Generally benign autumnal conditions for the foreseeable, gosh I find September a mind numbling dull month..

Bring on some crashing Atlantic storms.

[March]

Yeah, screw you September, I want spending time outside to be as dark and annoying as possible. 

[MP-R]

51 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

 

Generally benign autumnal conditions for the foreseeable, gosh I find September a mind numbling dull month..

You must live in a little biome of your own - so far this month I've had a potent squall, some good sunny days, summer heat, morning fog and a thunderstorm. Hardly mind-numbingly dull...

[William of Walworth]

2 hours ago, Nick L said:

Bring on some crashing Atlantic storms.

After Tuesday 27th September if you don't mind .. anything can happen after that in my book.

Because we're off with The Van next Fri (23rd) to our very last music fest of the season next weekend (Forest of Dean -- tiny festival, more like a large party really)

So because of that, I'm literally desparate that we're able to squeeze just ONE more summerlike weekend out -- that surrounding Saturday 24th Sept. We've been at home for the last three weekends, and here in Swansea has been too far West for most of the heat and sunshine that my brother in Cambridge, and others elsewhere in the S and SE,  have recently been having.

Albeit in midweek mostly!

It would be nice now if the best (or at least driest!) weather next week coincides with the actual weekend for once ....

Some early signs looking OKish (?) for avoiding LP domination in the South anyway, next week and hopefully up to/including next weekend,

But prior to my retirement** I want one last weekend of nice, pleasant, dry, sunny, not too cold conditions. However boring! In fact boring is fine IMO -- sod 'exciting' thunderstorms, I want DRY/SETTLED!

(**Retirement from Netweather forums I mean -- I tend to avoid this site over the October to April period bar the basic home page forecasts. I'm the opposite of all you winter obsessives -- only summer interests me!)

Edited September 15, 2016 by William of Walworth
Typos and whatnot. Plus adding stuff.

[cheese]

2 hours ago, Nick L said:

Bring on some crashing Atlantic storms.

Nooo!!! The wind messes up my hair.

[markyo]

4 hours ago, cheese said:

Nooo!!! The wind messes up my hair.

Wish i had hair for the wind to mess up!

[Matthew.]

9 hours ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

And being as Winter 2012/13 was a cold one which was also immediately followed by a very cold Spring and the 3 Winters which have so far succeeded it have been mild to very mild, maybe just maybe we'll get another cold one now at last. Then again what happened back then was probably nothing more than a coincidence and we'll end up with a fourth or more mild Winter this time. Though it's something which is giving me just a little hope and comfort at least. 

 

 

I agree 2013/14 and 15/16 was mild if not very mild in the latter but I thought 14/15 was average temperature wise with many NW incursions. A sunny winter with milder spells balanced out by colder incursions. Winter 16/17 could of course still be cold and long range models hinting at a more anti-cyclonic winter maybe.

Edited September 16, 2016 by Matthew Wilson

[I remember Atlantic 252]

8 hours ago, Nick L said:

Bring on some crashing Atlantic storms.

no way! bloody 'ell, worst weather imaginable

[iapennell]

@Gael_Force, This article about the results of an Aqua-Planet model of global wind-patterns is interesting :

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI3766.1#

Global cooling results in an equatorwards shift in the Westerlies, they do not become stronger and indeed some of the results discussed in the paper mentioned refer to a weakening of the Westerlies. Meanwhile easterlies become more extensive /stronger with global cooling and there is fairly unanimous agreement in the cooling simulations covered that this is the case.

The converse situation with a modest global warming results in the Westerlies extending polewards and becoming stronger and more extensive. This is not conducive to crisp frosty weather in autumn nor severe cold in winter. It is not to say that there won't be some cold spells in winter but it is clear that,  on balance we can expect plenty of wind, rain and mild temperatures in winters to come (based on global warming continuing). Observation of the autumn and winter months over the last 30 years overall generally agree.

[Nick L]

3 uncomfortably warm nights and I'm utterly shattered.

[Polar Maritime]

Much fresher now here Nick, Hopefully that's the last of it for this year.