autumn Autumn 2016

[AderynCoch]

Parts of the UK have been even hotter than Budapest, which is where I've been for the past few days. It was thirsty work doing all that walking around but well worth it.

Now starting a new job in the Carpathian foothills of northern Slovakia. Can't wait for winter.

[hillbilly]

No sea fret here but some hazy sunshine but mainly cloudy 19 deg,an eternity off the 32 deg in the south !

[Frost HoIIow]

39 minutes ago, AderynCoch said:

Parts of the UK have been even hotter than Budapest, which is where I've been for the past few days. It was thirsty work doing all that walking around but well worth it.

Now starting a new job in the Carpathian foothills of northern Slovakia. Can't wait for winter.

350m in Slovakia you should get buried in snow. When you get those bitter east winds give us a share please. Post some pics if you can 

[Scorcher]

51 minutes ago, hillbilly said:

No sea fret here but some hazy sunshine but mainly cloudy 19 deg,an eternity off the 32 deg in the south !

Again amazing contrasts across small distances in the north- 26C in Manchester this afternoon with sunshine virtually all afternoon.

[Scorcher]

8 hours ago, cheese said:

Low cloud only burnt away in the past hour, and still only 19C as now we have some high level cloud moving up from the south so today is very much a case of 'we can't win'.. BBC's forecast of 23C doesn't look likely to be reached at this point let alone higher. I am a little disappointed. The North Sea is so useless - they should just fill it with concrete. 

That echoes my disappointment yesterday- seems like the roles were reversed somewhat today as you suggested might happen with the wind veering NE. We managed 26C in the afternoon and there was very little in the way of cloud all day. Frustrating when you know warm sunshine is so close.

[Scorcher]

1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

Beautiful day

 

Wow great video there, there were some stunning high clouds around this evening as well as the sun went down.

[iapennell]

1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

Beautiful day

 

It was lovely where I was further north -in Carlisle today. Bright with warm sunshine near the west coast, plenty of low cloud and patchy fog for the North East, and the North Pennines (where I live) it was grey and misty early and late with some warm sunshine in the afternoon.

The time lapse confirms east/south-easterly winds to a considerable height up into the atmosphere, judging by the manner in which the clouds seem to be moving. This shows the effect of a ridge of high-pressure just north of Scotland so warmth and sun will be sticking round for a day or two yet, but with more low cloud and cooler conditions for the North East.  

[iapennell]

On 9/13/2016 at 16:18, Nouska said:

Can I take it you are sceptical of the warm Arctic, cold continents theory?

Winter 12/13 was extremely cold in Europe and that followed the record low ice of September 2012.

Personally, I think solar activity is probably the overriding factor but I'm also sure that there is a connection there too with the ice loss. So much going on that is unprecedented for the records we have, it is difficult to make assumptions about what any season will be like.

I would like to think that the reduced ice-extent over the Arctic can help produce a cold winter. The sea-ice would have to be well-diminished in winter with open water keeping the far north of Canada and Greenland much warmer in the winter months before we can consider that the atmospheric temperature and pressure gradients between the cold of the Arctic interior and relatively warm North Atlantic waters to the south (i.e. the baroclinicity)  is so reduced so as to encourage weaker depressions over the sub-Arctic and weaker Westerlies crossing the North Atlantic in the latitudes of Britain and NW Europe, so as to permit blocking over Scandinavia and cold easterlies off Russia.

I don't think, even with some of the wildest predictions of global warming in the next 50 years suggest that almost the whole of the Arctic will be ice-free not just in summer and autumn but into winter too. That being so, the Arctic interior will still get very cold whilst seas on the fringe of the Arctic Basin such as the Greenland and Barents Seas will be rather warmer seasonally than they have been in the past. Indeed as I write sea-surface temperatures are up to 6C above the seasonal norm in a few of these sub-arctic seas. This encourages stronger and more northerly-displaced baroclinic zones, deeper depressions and stronger (and more extensive) Westerlies. The northwards-displacement of the Westerlies means that these Westerlies, blowing closer to the axis of the Earth's rotation have to blow stronger to counterbalance tropical and subtropical easterlies (so as to balance the sources and sinks for westerly AAM budgets). This in turn strengthens the Circumpolar Vortex co that the North Pole still gets very cold with frigid air contained over it whilst there is less opportunity for this very cold air to spill into mid-latitudes. This intensifies the Vortex further maintaining even deeper depressions and stronger Westerlies south of them. And this means that unless the storm-tracks are pushed right up to north of 75N there is little chance of the strong Westerlies missing Britain and allowing cold dry high-pressure from northern Europe to push in from the east and even early-winter sea-ice extents are not so reduced in extent to permit that situation to unfold.

This season, I have to say a couple of factors are pushing the balance against high-pressure building up over northern Europe. Firstly the Quasi Biennial Oscillation (that wind-pattern high up over the Equator) has done an about-turn and decided to remain Westerly by as much as 10 metres per second at the 30 mb level and after the strongest El Nino for years in the Equatorial Pacific the return to the cooler La Nina pattern is dragging its heels. There is also the sharp uptick in hurricane/typhoon activity in the tropical North Atlantic and North Pacific respectively. None of this is conducive to cold-dry weather from the east from late autumn onwards.

Yes, the Sun has gone quiet, but its effect is more than outweighed by the macro-scale influences mentioned above.   

[Polar Maritime]

A lovely Autumnal morning here.

Edited September 15, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[Evening thunder]

Hmm, cooler southerly wind all day yesterday so only reached 21.2C here, lower than forecast again. There was just today left but that has been downgraded to struggling to reach 20C according to the Met Office map!  Notable temps Dorset eastwards yet again then.. another spell without notable daytime temperatures here.

Theme of the summer, really. This summer has not been in the slightest bit notable for high maxima in this area, even though there has been a lot of pleasantly warm days. Only 2 >25C days this year! (in comparison 1976, 1983 and 1989 had 37, 35 and 32 days at Exeter Airport, with several other years well into the 20s).

Edited September 15, 2016 by Evening thunder

[cheeky_monkey]

2 minutes ago, Evening thunder said:

Hmm, cooler southerly wind all day yesterday so only reached 21.2C here, lower than forecast again. There was just today left but that has been downgraded to struggling to reach 20C according to the Met Office map!  Notable temps Dorset eastwards yet again then.. another spell without notable daytime temperatures here.

Theme of the summer, really. This summer has not been in the slightest bit notable for high maxima in this area, even though there has been a lot of pleasantly warm days. Only 2 >25C days this year! (in comparison 1976, 1983 and 1989 had 37, 35 and 32 at Exeter Airport, with several other years well into the 20s).

How many in 1995 & 2003 ??

[Summer Sun]

 

[Turnedoutniceagain]

First dense Autumn fog of the year here. Lovely stuff, just another day of heat to soldier on through and we can start looking for a chill in the air in deep FI

[Evening thunder]

1 hour ago, cheeky_monkey said:

How many in 1995 & 2003 ??

27 and 22 at or above 25C days, while 1975 and 2006 had 25 such days.
 

But yeah this summer summer has still been relatively pleasant/decent here, just not 'interesting' temperature or weather wise.

Edited September 15, 2016 by Evening thunder

[summer blizzard]

Plenty of fog around today which makes a pleasant change (reminding us that Autumn is not so far away).

[Weather-history]

On 13 September 2016 at 03:34, CreweCold said:

Stop press....

September Glosea update is out and it's a stonker- cold late autumn and winter with quite extensive N blocking and -NAO

This now backs up what we've heard RE EC Seasonal

I wonder what the sound bite or the fad for this coming winter season is going to be? For 2014-15, it was the OPI, what happened to that? In early January, it was the torpedo nonsense.

 

[Methuselah]

Having no real interest in what this-or-that model, person-of-great-wisdom, or whatever has to say about next January, it's the ongoing threat of potential thunderiness I'm concentrating on:

Despite this being the last day of the current (too?) hot spell, there will still be a plentiful supply of hot, humid air on the near Continent, for perhaps another five or six weeks - at a stretch(?). So, IMO, upcoming interaction between cooler Atlantic and Continental air masses, could go on for some time yet - big storms in October are hardly unheard of?

He said, rose-tinted spectacles firmly in place!

[Walsall Wood Snow]

12 hours ago, iapennell said:

I would like to think that the reduced ice-extent over the Arctic can help produce a cold winter. The sea-ice would have to be well-diminished in winter with open water keeping the far north of Canada and Greenland much warmer in the winter months before we can consider that the atmospheric temperature and pressure gradients between the cold of the Arctic interior and relatively warm North Atlantic waters to the south (i.e. the baroclinicity)  is so reduced so as to encourage weaker depressions over the sub-Arctic and weaker Westerlies crossing the North Atlantic in the latitudes of Britain and NW Europe, so as to permit blocking over Scandinavia and cold easterlies off Russia.

I don't think, even with some of the wildest predictions of global warming in the next 50 years suggest that almost the whole of the Arctic will be ice-free not just in summer and autumn but into winter too. That being so, the Arctic interior will still get very cold whilst seas on the fringe of the Arctic Basin such as the Greenland and Barents Seas will be rather warmer seasonally than they have been in the past. Indeed as I write sea-surface temperatures are up to 6C above the seasonal norm in a few of these sub-arctic seas. This encourages stronger and more northerly-displaced baroclinic zones, deeper depressions and stronger (and more extensive) Westerlies. The northwards-displacement of the Westerlies means that these Westerlies, blowing closer to the axis of the Earth's rotation have to blow stronger to counterbalance tropical and subtropical easterlies (so as to balance the sources and sinks for westerly AAM budgets). This in turn strengthens the Circumpolar Vortex co that the North Pole still gets very cold with frigid air contained over it whilst there is less opportunity for this very cold air to spill into mid-latitudes. This intensifies the Vortex further maintaining even deeper depressions and stronger Westerlies south of them. And this means that unless the storm-tracks are pushed right up to north of 75N there is little chance of the strong Westerlies missing Britain and allowing cold dry high-pressure from northern Europe to push in from the east and even early-winter sea-ice extents are not so reduced in extent to permit that situation to unfold.

This season, I have to say a couple of factors are pushing the balance against high-pressure building up over northern Europe. Firstly the Quasi Biennial Oscillation (that wind-pattern high up over the Equator) has done an about-turn and decided to remain Westerly by as much as 10 metres per second at the 30 mb level and after the strongest El Nino for years in the Equatorial Pacific the return to the cooler La Nina pattern is dragging its heels. There is also the sharp uptick in hurricane/typhoon activity in the tropical North Atlantic and North Pacific respectively. None of this is conducive to cold-dry weather from the east from late autumn onwards.

Yes, the Sun has gone quiet, but its effect is more than outweighed by the macro-scale influences mentioned above.   

I take it you have little to no confidence of the September Glosea update being anywhere close to the mark then?

[Gael_Force]

39 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

I don't think, even with some of the wildest predictions of global warming in the next 50 years suggest that almost the whole of the Arctic will be ice-free not just in summer and autumn but into winter too.

Obviously you have not read the more recent research on the warm arctic leading to cold winters at mid latitudes or you wouldn't be making the quoted statement. It is not about the arctic being ice free in winter but about the changes to atmosphere patterns the lack of ice in autumn causes.

https://www.sheffield.ac.uk/geography/phd/projects/warmarctic

A brief summary but lots of research papers about the subject.

 

[cheese]

Fog and murk cleared much earlier today I'm happy to say. Nice and warm out. 

[Nick L]

1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

I wonder what the sound bite or the fad for this coming winter season is going to be? For 2014-15, it was the OPI, what happened to that? In early January, it was the torpedo nonsense.

 

Don't forget the Atlantic cold blob.

[Gael_Force]

Just now, Nick L said:

Don't forget the Atlantic cold blob.

Ah, but.... It might be the hot blob or the RRR that bites us in the bum this winter.

ridiculously resistent ridge in the north pacific leading to some unusually hot water leading to a persistent +PNA pattern. How's that for starters?

[iapennell]

39 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

Obviously you have not read the more recent research on the warm arctic leading to cold winters at mid latitudes or you wouldn't be making the quoted statement. It is not about the arctic being ice free in winter but about the changes to atmosphere patterns the lack of ice in autumn causes.

https://www.sheffield.ac.uk/geography/phd/projects/warmarctic

A brief summary but lots of research papers about the subject.

 

Much of the research on global warming that I have seen suggests that it will mean mild wet and windy winters for the UK. Such as here:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/mar/25/climate-change-uk-weather-wet-dry-met-office

And if you read the relevant chapter on climatic change in "Atmosphere,  Weather and Climate"  (eighth edition, Barry & Chorley, 2003), a fairly comprehensive study book covering meteorology at undergraduate level it covers the global warming caused by a doubling of CO2 levels. On of the highlights of expected change is that middle latitudes would get substantially warmer and wetter in the winter months, and this with even stronger winter warming expected in the Arctic. 

 

[iapennell]

42 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Don't forget the Atlantic cold blob.

A bit like the Scarlet Pimpernel, the Cold Blob recently dissappeared and he was hard to pin down!  Now he has re-surfaced much further west and, consequently I have had to modify my weather predictions for the Autumn!

[Gael_Force]

1 hour ago, iapennell said:

Much of the research on global warming that I have seen suggests that it will mean mild wet and windy winters for the UK. Such as here:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/mar/25/climate-change-uk-weather-wet-dry-met-office

And if you read the relevant chapter on climatic change in "Atmosphere,  Weather and Climate"  (eighth edition, Barry & Chorley, 2003), a fairly comprehensive study book covering meteorology at undergraduate level it covers the global warming caused by a doubling of CO2 levels. On of the highlights of expected change is that middle latitudes would get substantially warmer and wetter in the winter months, and this with even stronger winter warming expected in the Arctic. 

 

Ah yes, 2003.

A lot has changed in the last 13 years, especially the realisation that warming may not be uniform and regional differences can exist due to natural drivers taking the lead role.

Edited September 15, 2016 by Gael_Force