autumn Autumn 2016

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Scorcher said:

And there were definitely more brown leaves in SE England 2 weekends ago than there were in NW England at that time- explain that to me.

The trees I'm talking about aren't brown or going brown. They're starting to just turn a golden hue in places. It's subtle at first and the average person probably wouldn't even think much of it until another week or two has passed!

[Nouska]

6 minutes ago, iapennell said:

However, that does not mean that we will have a cold winter this year. The extents of Arctic sea-ice are not a patch on what they were in the 1970s and seasonal sea-surface temperatures in the North Atlantic and towards the Arctic are roughly 3C warmer over most of these areas than they were at a similar time of year in 1978. That makes a big difference! 

Can I take it you are sceptical of the warm Arctic, cold continents theory?

Winter 12/13 was extremely cold in Europe and that followed the record low ice of September 2012.

Personally, I think solar activity is probably the overriding factor but I'm also sure that there is a connection there too with the ice loss. So much going on that is unprecedented for the records we have, it is difficult to make assumptions about what any season will be like.

[Relativistic]

1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

34.4C now in Gravesend

https://twitter.com/metoffice?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

#whatisgoingon

This says that temperatures only maxed out at 32C?

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observation/u10k8kx5v

[Scorcher]

Just now, CreweCold said:

No, I meant you can set your watch by which trees will start to turn first. It's the same every year without fail. They're definitely on the turn here though right now. I'd walk and take pics but can't be bothered 

Okay so you're still saying that those trees, despite being the first to turn, turn at different times every year? Drought stress can be and is a factor at times- but hardly ever in the NW as we don't get many dry periods even when they do in the south. It's even been talked about on the BBC.

[Man With Beard]

2 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

This says that temperatures only maxed out at 32C?

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observation/u10k8kx5v

It's the Met Office twitter feed that said 34.4C ... unless someone hacked it  

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Scorcher said:

Okay so you're still saying that those trees, despite being the first to turn, turn at different times every year? Drought stress can be and is a factor at times- but hardly ever in the NW as we don't get many dry periods even when they do in the south. It's even been talked about on the BBC.

Definitely no drought or heat stress. It's simple- they're starting to slowly withdraw their chlorophyll. It's the equivalent of Mid ish March remember in the deciduous plant life cycle. I.e growth would be starting mid march but ending mid September.

[Mapantz]

1 minute ago, Scorcher said:

And there were definitely more brown leaves in SE England 2 weekends ago than there were in NW England at that time- explain that to me.

Absolutely stress and lack of rainfall. They have been talking about it on gardening programmes.
The plum trees in my garden started turning colour, and shedding in the early part of August, that is due to lack or rainfall. The same goes for my Acer tree. The leaves are red all through Summer, in to early Autumn, when normal Autumn conditions are in situe, they turn a brighter red, and become slightly transparent. They have turned green very early this year, and are starting to drop off. It looks like a normal Autumn scenario, but it is not, it is down to very dry conditions.

[Scorcher]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Definitely no drought or heat stress. It's simple- they're starting to slowly withdraw their chlorophyll. It's the equivalent of Mid ish March remember in the deciduous plant life cycle. I.e growth would be starting mid march but ending mid September.

Nature has no calendar like we do...if it's not warm enough the leaves won't appear in March (think 2013, nothing til mid April, 1996 had very little even in mid May), if it's warm enough in September, the leaf drop will be delayed. If you can set your watch by it as you say you can then why in mild autumns do the leaves hang on well into November? Last year some areas had plenty of leaves on trees into December.

Therefore if there was clearly more browning of the leaves in London than in Manchester 2 weeks ago- drought must be a factor as it certainly hasn't been cooler there.

Edited September 13, 2016 by Scorcher

[Singularity]

If we did hit 34 today... I wonder how well the heat can develop in situ with the day about an hour longer than the night?

Tomorrow will depend on to what extent the low to the south extends a lobe through western parts of the U.K., turning the winds to the south and - ironically - importing slightly fresher air.

GFS is particularly keen on this, ECM and ARPEGE not so much - freshening limited to coastal counties Solent westward.

I'm in the freshening zone and won't mind at all if it brings back a lot of sunshine having had today turn out pretty grotty (but very warm anyway) after the midday storm.

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Scorcher said:

Nature has no calendar like we do...if it's not warm enough the leaves won't appear in March (think 2013, nothing til mid April, 1996 had very little even in mid May), if it's warm enough in September, the leaf drop will be delayed. If you can set your watch by it as you say you can then why in mild autumns do the leaves hang on well into November? Last year some areas had plenty of leaves on trees into December.

Therefore if there was clearly more browning of the leaves in London than in Manchester 2 weeks ago- drought must be a factor as it certainly hasn't been cooler there.

Predominant tree species differ between N & S too and that plays a roll

[MP-R]

15 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

It's nothing to do with stress. It's the same time frame each year. You can set your watch by which trees start to turn first. 

We've not had a shortage of rain here and nor has it been overly hot.

It's as much to do with stress as what trees change earlier than others. If trees do not get enough water - the leaves will go brown regardless, ergo, London has had less rain than many places further north hence more brown trees. That's just simple science.

Such was the case when I was living in Madrid. Trees were browning in August!

[Scorcher]

2 minutes ago, MP-R said:

It's as much to do with stress as what trees change earlier than others. If trees do not get enough water - the leaves will go brown regardless, ergo, London has had less rain than many places further north hence more brown trees. That's just simple science.

Such was the case when I was living in Madrid. Trees were browning in August!

They are also pretty brown in Barcelona too- I was there last weekend. Clearly related to drought stress. The sun is still strong and high there and they still consider it very much summer.

Edited September 13, 2016 by Scorcher

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, MP-R said:

It's as much to do with stress as what trees change earlier than others. If trees do not get enough water - the leaves will go brown regardless, ergo, London has had less rain than many places further north hence more brown trees. That's just simple science.

Such was the case when I was living in Madrid. Trees were browning in August!

The trees turning here has nothing to do with stress. We had a 4 day deluge at end of August where it rained heavily every day! There is no shortage of ground water! May as well be talking to my living room wall 

[MP-R]

On another note, how's this for a cold front crossing Spain:

 

[Scorcher]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The trees turning here has nothing to do with stress. We had a 4 day deluge at end of August where it rained heavily every day! There is no shortage of ground water! May as well be talking to my living room wall 

I feel like I am too...you actually quoted me and disputed my point about London trees being influenced by drought stress...and now you're saying you were just referring to the north? I'm confused...

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Scorcher said:

I feel like I am too...you actually quoted me and disputed my point about London trees being influenced by drought stress...and now you're saying you were just referring to the north? I'm confused...

I was never talking about London trees, I didn't bring them up....*confused* I was specifically talking about round here. Of course London trees are going to be suffering...they've had far more heat and dry weather to contend with!

[Nick L]

The Gravesend temperature is a nonsense. No reason for it to suddenly spike like that at that time of day...

[MP-R]

Sounds like we're going round in circles here. I think we can agree that heat stress/drought and natural change both affect the changing colours of trees. The former is probably most prevalent in the south and east. Autumn may turn earlier in the north and west. Overriding this, different species of tree will respond differently to certain conditions.

Moving on slightly, I do look forward to some clear days, whether warm or cool in October to enjoy the best of the colours. They really do come out nicely in the sunshine.

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Sounds like we're going round in circles here. I think we can agree that heat stress/drought and natural change both affect the changing colours of trees. The former is probably most prevalent in the south and east. Autumn may turn earlier in the north and west. Overriding this, different species of tree will respond differently to certain conditions.

Moving on slightly, I do look forward to some clear days, whether warm or cool in October to enjoy the best of the colours. They really do come out nicely in the sunshine.

At last! A pragmatic post!

[Summer Sun]

Hottest day of the year and the warmest September day since 1911

Amazing

[Dangerous55019]

I'm pleased to report that the autumn colours are coming along at a fair ole pace here in North East Wales, as you can see from this picture that I took last night 
... But even I'm shocked at how warm and sticky this September is turning out!! Hottest September day since 1911 today!! ... I wonder if this autumn will turn into a sort of repeat of autumn 1911? I know what the models are showing, but this is Mother Nature that we're dealing with here. Lol 

Edit: I've just noticed some of the posts about trees changing colour... I posted this before I had a read back through the tread... Please don't accuse me trolling  

Edited September 13, 2016 by Dangerous55019
Adding a footnote

[markyo]

Oh lord am I dreading getting my Leccy bill,comfort comes with a price in this hot weather!! Now I won't sleep for dreading that aircon running cost!!

[Singularity]

Keeping an eye on Thursday's potential for high temps to affect my area (western New Forest) as the very warm air mass wafts back west (having been eroded a bit from the S on Wed afternoon) and then the wind turns to a gentle northerly, which is ideal for creating 'dead heat' in these parts (near-zero wind), though not usually in September!

Cloud cover will of course be critical in such a setup, and there's also some disagreement between the models with respect to how effectively the very warm airmass is able to progress westward across the UK and how much modification it undergoes along the way.

The ARPEGE 06z solution is truly extreme here as it produces an 18*C overnight low followed by a 30*C high, which gives a 24 hour mean some 9.5*C above the LTA for 14th September. That would be the third greatest positive anomaly in my records, beating even the scattering of extraordinarily mild days last December (among countless exceedingly warm ones...).

GFS is so much cooler that it defies belief; a 14*C minimum and a 27*C maximum. This seems to be a knock-on affect of it importing a greater amount of fresher air from the south tomorrow afternoon, followed by the development of heavy showers and thunderstorms across CS England on Thursday afternoon, which ARPEGE is not interested in. Seems there's a convergence line which GFS is keen on but ARPEGE not. Looking at HIRLAM at the limits of its range (+48 hours), there's little sign of the convergence line. So GFS seems to be out on a limb there. HIRLAM is also showing the potential for 30*C in this area based on the 12:00 prediction. 

  

Certainly a good chance of seeing 30*C exceeded three days in a row somewhere in Southeast England, which is seriously amazing for mid-September.

[sunnijim]

24 minutes ago, Nick L said:

The Gravesend temperature is a nonsense. No reason for it to suddenly spike like that at that time of day...

The Met office have issued it as a fact to all media agencies.33c at London City airport seems to be the other closest high.

Do you think the M.O will backtrack on 34.4c then? I would assume it was an official station with such an early call.

The more amateur stations tend to call in their readings from 5pm,they are then subject to 'quality control' before going live.

[Mapantz]

The Gravesend station has come under scrutiny many times in the past. It does seem a bit suspicious?!