autumn Autumn 2016

[damianslaw]

SST values across much of northern atlantic are significantly above average especially off the eastern USA seaboard and around Greenland, and the cold pool to our NW has evaporated somewhat. Would be good to match up the current SST profile with other years. Not sure how this might affect things, but I think its quite a different set up to the last 3 autumns, perhaps we may see a weaker jetstream and a propensity for stronger heights over east atlantic, with a resultant amplified flow - following on from the summer pattern, with flips between mild and cold.

[Summer Sun]

 

[B87]

First 9 days of September looks good, more like what you'd expect in late July or early August! Maybe the summer will be redeemed after all, with September being warmer and sunnier than June (not difficult).

[Dangerous55019]

Well, Gavin over at 'Gavs Weather Vids' has just issued his autumn 2016 forecast, and he's going for an Atlantic driven, but dryer than average autumn ... And also a slightly milder than average autumn. 
I just hope that the slightly milder than average part doesn't come from cloud cover 
But with it forecast to be drier than average, does this hopefully mean higher than average pressure, so that we can get the mellow mists and fogs, and sunny spells throughout a big chunk of this autumn before we get the the business end in November?
Time will tell as always 

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/
 

 

[damianslaw]

Autumn 2016 looks like starting on a fairly benign note, with a generally mild SW flow taking hold and a fairly weak ineffectual atlantic, all par for the course it seems nowadays, early September year after year seems to bring generally the most 'quiet' weather of the year.. I find early-mid September the most trying time of the year weather watching wise, the only point of interest tends to be the sudden development of hurricanes, but we've had very little such activity since 2005, hence why our Septembers since then in the main have started on such a quiet note.

Looking at some of the long range forecasts, it does seem we may see more in the way of anticyclonic conditions dominating at least during the first half of the autumn, mid atlantic heights putting a break on the atlantic in the main, but with some temporary breakdown weak attacks from the NW, but we should expect more pronounced attacks as the autumn wears on as you would expect which could bring down some cold shots.

Purely speculative, but my hunch for the 3 months is (similiar to GP forecast):

September - a dry mild month especially in the SE, brief wetter interludes in the NW keeping it more nearer average in Scotland, N Ireland and most probably here, but still nothing especially wet or windy or cool.

October - a similar theme to September, heights strong to the SW ridging into southern parts on occasion to give dry mild conditions, but the north more prone to atlantic attacks again, perhaps a storm or two before the month is out.

November - quite unsettled more so in the north, strong mid atlantic heights with a NW-SE tracking jet, colder interludes for the north, some frosty weather at times.

Not expecting much in the way of continental airstreams invading the UK this autumn, due to the propensity for mid atlantic heights and the trough to invade over the top and into the N Sea/scandi. Thankfully neither expecting those awful long drawn moist SW airstreams and there copious rainfall, setting the ground work for winter flooding - last November was terrible here - happy to see a mid atlantic ridge in this respect!

[Walsall Wood Snow]

11 hours ago, Dangerous55019 said:

Well, Gavin over at 'Gavs Weather Vids' has just issued his autumn 2016 forecast, and he's going for an Atlantic driven, but dryer than average autumn ... And also a slightly milder than average autumn. 
I just hope that the slightly milder than average part doesn't come from cloud cover 
But with it forecast to be drier than average, does this hopefully mean higher than average pressure, so that we can get the mellow mists and fogs, and sunny spells throughout a big chunk of this autumn before we get the the business end in November?
Time will tell as always 

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/
 

 

He's also done a Winter 2016/17 sneak peak aswell using four different models. Overall it doesn't look too brilliant for cold and snow lovers at present with above average temperatures been the main theme. However he is going to be doing  more detailed weekly updates starting next Sunday until he releases his own Winter forecast at the end of November/ beginning of December so something to keep an eye on for those interested. Plus I don't know how much or little we can rely on the models to paint a trusted picture from this far out. Though the CFS v2 has been hinting at higher than average heights to our north east though the temperature charts are stubbornly suggesting above average temperatures despite this. Though he does say that is possibly a flaw in the model failing to respond properly to the pressure anomalies. Anyway I suppose (or at least hope) that these early predictions from the models in general are off the mark here (after all a fourth mild Winter on the trot isn't what many of us hope for, though time will tell of course) and hopefully more tasty scenarios come to fruition as time wears on into the Autumn with aspects of that season coming into play which haven't yet come into play, such as Eurasian snow cover, ice formation and others. And what with weekly video updates from Gavin there should be many twists and turns to keep our attention as we approach Winter, so worth keeping an eye on his videos at least. Also as we get closer speculation will intensify from a myriad of voices, professional and amateur alike. 

 

 

[syed2878]

no red holly berrys here but there allot of black berries and most of them turned black.

[NorthYorksWeather]

Temps really plummeting under any clear/calm nights at the moment, last couple of mornings we've fallen to 8.9c and a few known frost hollows have seen 6/7c. May see single figures again this evening. 

[Summer Sun]

September outlook from weather online
 

Quote

 

Valid from 03/12 to 30/12 2015

Mixed overall

Issued: Monday 29th August 2016
Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling

Mixed overall but some dry spells too, especially in the east

September is going to be a mixed month. There will be spells of drier weather, but some wetter conditions too. We expect most of the rain fall during the month to be to the west of the UK and Ireland, with more eastern areas tending to see rainfall totals lower than average. Temperatures remaining warm, although nearer average in the west.

*3/9/16 - 9/9/16*

September opens with mainly fair weather across much of the UK and Ireland. As the week progresses rain arrives in Scotland and gradually drifts south. Probably becoming more mixed or unsettled for all but the far southeast by the end of the week. Temperatures starting mild then slipping later.

*10/9/16 - 16/9/16*

Hints of the weather remaining mixed to unsettled through the week. Most rain tending to be in western areas, but drier overall in the east and southeast. Warm in the east and south too, but nearer average west.

*17/9/16 - 23/9/16*

The jet stream is likely to be breaking through during this week bringing more unsettled weather to all. Once again most of the rain will be to the west, with more eastern areas tending to see lighter rain. Mild for all.

*24/9/16 - 30/9/16*

Staying unsettled, especially in the west where there will be more rain. Eastern areas may become a little drier, and the dry weather may well affect southern areas too.

**ends**

Simon Keeling

 

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=monthahead&DAY=20160829

Edited August 29, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

October and November outlook from weather online
 

Quote

 

Higher pressure

Dry spells

Issued: Monday 29th August 2016
Duty forecasters: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob

*October*

Forecasting models are consistently showing October as being dominated by high pressure. However, we believe that this is overstated. Our current expectations are that the early part of October may well be dominated by higher pressure and drier conditions. This could bring some fine, warm weather, although cooler nights. By mid-month conditions will begin to change and there will be a slip to a more unsettled second half of the month. It will become cooler, wetter and windy at times.

*November*

Once again, higher than average pressure is the theme for November, although this time tending to mostly affect the south of the UK and Ireland.
After an unsettled, often wet and windy start to the month, things will likely settle down with higher pressure bringing some drier days. Cooler nights are likely, as is frost. A tendency for days to become foggier as the month progresses. Turning more unsettled again by the month's end.

Simon Keeling

 

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=206&FILE=sea&DAY=20160829

[Turnedoutniceagain]

3 hours ago, syed2878 said:

no red holly berrys here but there allot of black berries and most of them turned black.

Same here, I had a look around the gardens for some earlier. A few going to slight orange, so give them another week !!

[Summer Sun]

The weather outlook have got some thoughts on Autumn and winter the summary of it is;

"Some of the third party data is pointing towards a warmer and wetter than average autumn and a milder than average winter."

An autumn forecast will be released tomorrow

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/latest.aspx?type=buzz&id=3398&title=Autumn+and+winter

[March]

The MetO indicating a warmer than average Autumn with probably wetter than average conditions. 

Temps

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/5/2/Forecast-temp-SON-v1.pdf

Precipitation

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/5/a/Forecast-precip-SON-v1.pdf

[Turnedoutniceagain]

13 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

The weather outlook have got some thoughts on Autumn and winter the summary of it is;

"Some of the third party data is pointing towards a warmer and wetter than average autumn and a milder than average winter."

An autumn forecast will be released tomorrow

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/latest.aspx?type=buzz&id=3398&title=Autumn+and+winter

I hope not. Though, to be fair, last Autumn's storms were rather exciting. Just glad I don't live on the Western coasts

[Summer Sun]

 

[Captain Shortwave]

It is interesting to see such agreement from different organisations about how this Autumn will pan out, especially as at the moment September looks to start on a pretty dry note, this could suggest a very zonal or potentially stormy second half of the Autumn which to my eye looks pretty reasonable. I am not seeing a lot of cold weather on the horizon but then again it is best left until we reach December anyway and things might look more promising then anyway.

[snowtimenow]

14 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

The weather outlook have got some thoughts on Autumn and winter the summary of it is;

"Some of the third party data is pointing towards a warmer and wetter than average autumn and a milder than average winter."

An autumn forecast will be released tomorrow

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/latest.aspx?type=buzz&id=3398&title=Autumn+and+winter

I truly hope not, my worst nightmare, I want hard frosts and sunshine, I know its been said over and over again but there are no seasons anymore they all roll into one and there is nothing exciting about that.

 

[Summer Sun]

TWO's Autumn forecast

"Overview Mildish but quite wet

Warmer than average with the possibility of several hot spells of weather. Despite this it is likely to be unsettled at times with rainfall close to average over the season as a whole."

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk-seasonal-weather-forecast

[Walsall Wood Snow]

4 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

TWO's Autumn forecast

"Overview Mildish but quite wet

Warmer than average with the possibility of several hot spells of weather. Despite this it is likely to be unsettled at times with rainfall close to average over the season as a whole."

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk-seasonal-weather-forecast

Although the forecast as a whole punts for above average temperatures, when broken down on a monthly basis only September is forecast as above average, with October predicted to be around average and November as also around average to slightly below. Though of course the last month of any seasonal forecast is always going to be the one with the least confidence, with the first month and particularly the first week been by far much more so. This is something to bear in mind of course when viewing a forecast which extends over such a broad period. Though what can be said is that September is looking likely to be warmer than average with fine weather to start with. In truth this is all we can feel confident of, though after that really anything can happen. So for those wishing for fine frosty weather and perhaps even some early snow later in the Autumn there's really no need to give up hope just yet. Though mild and wet is always more probable of course.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Hello Autumn 2016

"Season of mists and mellow fruitfulness,
        Close bosom-friend of the maturing sun;
    Conspiring with him how to load and bless
        With fruit the vines that round the thatch-eves run;
    To bend with apples the moss'd cottage-trees,
        And fill all fruit with ripeness to the core;
          To swell the gourd, and plump the hazel shells
        With a sweet kernel; to set budding more,
    And still more, later flowers for the bees,
  Until they think warm days will never cease,
          For Summer has o'er-brimm'd their clammy cells.

  Who hath not seen thee oft amid thy store?
      Sometimes whoever seeks abroad may find
  Thee sitting careless on a granary floor,
      Thy hair soft-lifted by the winnowing wind;
  Or on a half-reap'd furrow sound asleep,
      Drows'd with the fume of poppies, while thy hook
          Spares the next swath and all its twined flowers:
  And sometimes like a gleaner thou dost keep
      Steady thy laden head across a brook;
      Or by a cyder-press, with patient look,
          Thou watchest the last oozings hours by hours.

  Where are the songs of Spring? Ay, where are they?
      Think not of them, thou hast thy music too,—
  While barred clouds bloom the soft-dying day,
      And touch the stubble-plains with rosy hue;
  Then in a wailful choir the small gnats mourn
      Among the river sallows, borne aloft
          Or sinking as the light wind lives or dies;
  And full-grown lambs loud bleat from hilly bourn;
      Hedge-crickets sing; and now with treble soft
      The red-breast whistles from a garden-croft;
          And gathering swallows twitter in the skies"

 

 

[Guest]

Tree outside my house is well orange, which is weird since it usually goes orange early October.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

19 minutes ago, BREIFMAN11 said:

Tree outside my house is well orange, which is weird since it usually goes orange early October.

Probably dehydration. August has been rather dry.

Try not watering your houseplants - the same thing will happen

[Captain Shortwave]

Well September has started on a positive note, lots of sunshine, light winds and the temperature has reached 24C. Hopefully September will continue in this vain. There is plenty of time for cold and snow, but not just yet

[markyo]

Looking like a good September weather wise,nothing overly hot,coupled with fresh nights. Suspect those recent charts showing high 20's temps will soon fade for Northern areas,warming up yes but nothing like a heat wave. Just my opinion though,i'm sure many will disagree!

[Matthew.]

Beautiful warm, sunny conditions to start autumn looking likely next week. I wonder if the much warmer sst anomalies around Greenland and steeper temperature gradients to the west are encouraging low pressure to move in that direction? 

Edited September 1, 2016 by Matthew Wilson