autumn Autumn 2016

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Still searching for my first red holly berry, thousands in the garden, but all green. Anyone got any?

[wishfulwinter]

1 hour ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Still searching for my first red holly berry, thousands in the garden, but all green. Anyone got any?

Been on a very long country walk today (pokemon hunting with the kids). Didn't see any at all. Not long to go for the conkers though!

[Frost HoIIow]

16 minutes ago, wishfulwinter said:

Been on a very long country walk today (pokemon hunting with the kids). Didn't see any at all. Not long to go for the conkers though!

Yes the conker pods on the trees are getting large now around here, a sure sign Autumn is nearly here.

[Evening thunder]

On 19/08/2016 at 20:27, Dangerous55019 said:

Evening, Evening Thunder 
As long as the stormy bits can hold off until the business end of autumn then I won't complain, I seem to recall a big wind storm in November 2010, but I wasn't well at the time, so my recollection is a tad foggy (excuse the pun).

 

Haha, I have this name as I love evening thunderstorms.. e.g. watching an elevated storm drift in with sunset colours and twilight revealing the lightning (sorry off topic lol)

That would be alright I guess. Looking at my station data we had a few windy days though nothing too exceptional, may have been worse up north. I liked November 2010, started with near record warm maxima here, then ended with near record cold, with some pretty changeable and active weather in between.

[stainesbloke]

13 hours ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Still searching for my first red holly berry, thousands in the garden, but all green. Anyone got any?

Bit early isn't it? Lots of green ones....portent of a harsh winter, apparently!

[Norrona2015]

August 11th brought a very early taste of Autumn to parts of NE Scotland with an unusually chilly start to the day. The temperature indicator on the car was showing 1*C on the commute to work. I noticed quite a few drivers using ice scrapers to clear windscreens while passing through the more sheltered spots. I've never seen ice on windscreens during August during my 12 years of living in the area.

Edited August 21, 2016 by Norrona2015

[Turnedoutniceagain]

1 hour ago, Norrona2015 said:

August 11th brought a very early taste of Autumn to parts of NE Scotland with an unusually chilly start to the day. The temperature indicator on the car was showing 1*C on the commute to work. I noticed quite a few drivers using ice scrapers to clear windscreens while passing through the more sheltered spots. I've never seen ice on windscreens during August during my 12 years of living in the area.

Wow !! I suppose we are only a month away from the equinox

[Summer Sun]

Gavin P has had the ECMWF seasonal models for winter sent to him and this is his interpretation of it

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/ecmwf-seasonal-model-forecast-interpretation.php

When's the next ECMWF update due for the Autumn?

Gav's last look at the seasonal models before the final Autumn forecast next week - current thought's are Atlantic driven autumn so milder than normal and quite a bit of rain north perhaps less so in the south

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/autumn-2016-forecast.php

Edited August 22, 2016 by Summer Sun

[sundog]

so a very stong signal from the seasonal models for a warmer then average autumn. A real sickner,our autumns really are getting beyond a joke now.

Autumn? Whats that? We dont get proper bloody autumns anymore.

[Dangerous55019]

Just let the dog out, and there are Daddy Longlegs all over the windows and walls outside this morning... Hello autumn 2016 

[MP-R]

10 hours ago, sundog said:

so a very stong signal from the seasonal models for a warmer then average autumn. A real sickner,our autumns really are getting beyond a joke now.

Autumn? Whats that? We dont get proper bloody autumns anymore.

Anticyclonic warmth with cool mornings with mist/fog then sunny days I'm sure will be welcome. We just don't want warmth from relentless SWerlies!

If the Atlantic kicks in in October, it would be nice to get as much Pm out of it as possible like December 2014.

[sundog]

6 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Anticyclonic warmth with cool mornings with mist/fog then sunny days I'm sure will be welcome. 

Well I wouldn't mind that at at least up until the latter half of Oct.

7 minutes ago, MP-R said:

We just don't want warmth from relentless SWerlies!

 

But that is what I'm fearing.

[snowtimenow]

On ‎29‎/‎07‎/‎2016 at 02:00, moorlander said:

 

ignore

Edited August 23, 2016 by snowtimenow

[stainesbloke]

12 hours ago, sundog said:

so a very stong signal from the seasonal models for a warmer then average autumn. A real sickner,our autumns really are getting beyond a joke now.

Autumn? Whats that? We dont get proper bloody autumns anymore.

Sounds good to me, especially if sunny and dry. The longer I can keep the heating off the better. Though I did read somewhere that winter (more the 2nd half) could be rather cold....

[Turnedoutniceagain]

6 hours ago, Dangerous55019 said:

Just let the dog out, and there are Daddy Longlegs all over the windows and walls outside this morning... Hello autumn 2016 

Always the harbingers for me. Haven't seen one yet !!

[MP-R]

2 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

Sounds good to me, especially if sunny and dry. The longer I can keep the heating off the better. Though I did read somewhere that winter (more the 2nd half) could be rather cold....

Isn't that what last years forecast was haha? Yes the second half was cold relative to the first half but, for the most part, was rather average.

[stainesbloke]

29 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Isn't that what last years forecast was haha? Yes the second half was cold relative to the first half but, for the most part, was rather average.

Yes, very similar! Didn't really get cold at all last winter though. What I read seemed to suggest a chance of a very cold second half of winter. But might as well read the tea leaves!

[Nick L]

36 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Isn't that what last years forecast was haha? Yes the second half was cold relative to the first half but, for the most part, was rather average.

The second half was still comfortably above average, it just wasn't as ridiculously warm as December.

Edited August 23, 2016 by Nick L

[reef]

Last year into this year was just about the worst combination of weather going in the UK: An Autumn that started below average and got warmer relative to the mean as it went on leading to that awful December. It felt like the temperatures didn't change for four months. That then lead onto another poor (and snowless here) Jan/Feb before snow arrived in Mar/Apr when it was too late. It was just the worst of all worlds.

[Summer Sun]

If last nights CFS is near the mark we might not see much rain away from the far north during September the south especially would be favoured for some longer spells of warmer drier weather

[MP-R]

2 hours ago, Nick L said:

The second half was still comfortably above average, it just wasn't as ridiculously warm as December.

There we are then. We need a vast improvement this year!

interestingly my average minimum for Feb was not far off the average given the cool nights, it was just offset by the sunny days with higher maxima. Don't want any of that nonsense into the new season.

[Frost HoIIow]

2 hours ago, reef said:

Last year into this year was just about the worst combination of weather going in the UK: An Autumn that started below average and got warmer relative to the mean as it went on leading to that awful December. It felt like the temperatures didn't change for four months. That then lead onto another poor (and snowless here) Jan/Feb before snow arrived in Mar/Apr when it was too late. It was just the worst of all worlds.

Indeed. I do feel we are having more extremes of dryness and wetness and also since July 2013 it seems to be more in favour of static warmer conditions & unusual situations, like this Summer we've had some notably warm nights even though there hasn't been day time heat like 2003, 2006, just brief plumes. Then there was the extremely mild December that we had. Think it's safe to say the run of colder Winters ended in 2013 after some memorable events around here. However having said all that I do think with the quietening sun (of course other factors come into play not just the sun) we will have a run of colder than normal Winters soon - probably not a 46-47 or 62-63 but more like 2009-2013. Which would suit me fine.

Edited August 23, 2016 by Frost HoIIow

[Walsall Wood Snow]

Probably not worth (and I'm trying to tell myself this as much as anyone else) getting too hung up about what Winter may turn out like just yet, as it's probably still too far away for any confident predictions, and I don't think there's any final forecasts for then yet either, just the odd murmuring at best. This also probably applies to much of Autumn, especially late October and November (even  much of September and early October is pretty speculative in reality I would imagine. Not that I'm saying long range predictions are worthless mind just that obviously the further away from the present a forecast tries to predict the greater the room for error. This would also apply if forecasts were predicting anomalously cold conditions, even though it would be exciting for many of us. But as ever no matter what a forecast says, it's what ends up really happening above our heads in any given moment that matters and which we remember.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

I didn't see a single Swallow out last night, just a solitary Swift. Have I missed them? Have they gone already?

[Summer Sun]

WSI's Autumn forecast
 

Quote

 

For the aggregate September-November period, The Weather Company, is forecasting slightly below-normal temperatures across the UK, France, and Iberia, with above-normal temperatures across the rest of Europe.

“The old familiar pattern of cooler-west and warmer-east has generally been in place since early July across Europe, and we expect that general pattern to continue well into autumn,” said Dr. Todd Crawford, Chief Meteorologist at The Weather Company. He continued:

“This pattern has been driven by another summer of North Atlantic blocking, which may be driven by historically-low values of Arctic sea ice. As we look ahead to winter, there are some indications to suggest that this winter may be a bit colder than the previous three. While it is early, the expected large-scale northern hemispheric forcing suggests a more normal winter this year, with less of the strong westerly flow across the North Atlantic that has led to the recent warm and wet winters.”

For the September to November 2016 time period, The Weather Company is forecasting the following conditions:

September:

Nordic Region*- Warmer than normal, except southern coastal Norway

UK* - Slightly cooler than normal

Northern Mainland* - Warmer than normal, except northern France and Benelux

Southern Mainland* - Warmer than normal, except Iberia and western France

October:

Nordic Region – Warmer than normal

UK – Slightly cooler than normal

Northern Mainland - Warmer than normal east, cooler than normal west

Southern Mainland - Warmer than normal east, cooler than normal west

November:

Nordic Region – Warmer than normal

UK – Warmer than normal

Northern Mainland - Warmer than normal

Southern Mainland - Warmer than normal, except Iberia

 

 

 

https://business.weather.com/blog/the-weather-company-pattern-of-cool-west-and-warm-east-likely-to-continue-into-autumn

Across the pond hints of a cold winter are beginning to emerge https://business.weather.com/blog/us-seasonal-outlook-warmth-continues-into-fall-but-hints-of-cold-winter-emerging

Edited August 25, 2016 by Summer Sun