autumn Autumn 2016

[iapennell]

On 7/25/2016 at 10:09, summer blizzard said:

Nov 05 is perhaps the best November as a whole (obviously 2010 had an utterly brilliant end). As soon as the cold front passed on the 7th, it was frigid, frosty and stupidly sunny for the rest of the month.

Some of the Novembers we had in the 1980s and early 1990s had some quite dramatic conditions. On 20th November 1983 a Greenland High brought icy northerly winds after which skies cleared and winds fell light. At my home near Nenthead in the North Pennines the temperature fell to -7C overnight 20th/21st November followed by a sunny cold day. Then overnight 21st/22nd November the air temperature plunged to -10C with a bright full moon and the ground was iron hard next morning.

November 1985 was bitterly cold with frequent northerly winds bringing snowfalls, after which skies would clear to bring freezing sunny days and bitterly cold nights down to -7C. Mild spells were short-lived and the average temperature for that month was an icy 0.1C. Snow lay on the ground on 14 days during November 1985.

In November 1993 I recorded the most severe weather I have ever recorded in November: Icy NW winds brought three inches of snow on the 14th then with clear skies overnight 14th/15th November 1993 the air temperature fell to -8C but that was just  taste of what was to come. After a thaw from the south on the 16th the wind backed south-easterly as strong high-pressure built over northern Scandinavia and the night frosts became progressively more severe, then on the 20th November the winds came in from the north-east and extremely cold air arrived from Russia. On the 21st and 22nd November the temperature did not exceed freezing point in the Nenthead area by day whilst dropping to -5C at night, heavy snow-showers led to a covering of nine inches of powdery snow by the evening of the 22nd November. Then the skies cleared and winds fell very light and the temperature plummeted overnight 22nd/23rd November to a minimum of -13C and a thin freezing fog formed over the snow-cover. Extremely low temperatures in early winter are actually rare where I live on a hillside because the very cold air formed by radiative heat loss tends to drain into the valley below; however on this occasion the layer of freezing fog led to the direct radiative cooling of a thin layer of air near the ground from the fog-top leading to a deeper layer of extremely cold air that could not escape so easily- and this helps to explain the dramatic 13C plunge in temperature from the maximum temperature the previous day (0C on 22nd November). This air-temperature of -13C stands today as the all-time record cold I have ever recorded in November! On 23rd November with weak winter sunshine reflected off lingering freezing fog and deep powdery snow-cover the air temperature did not exceed -3C making this the coldest November day in my records. Then overnight 23rd/24th November continued clear skies and light winds led to a minimum air-temperature of -12C. Milder south-westerlies arrived on the 25th November.

I need not elaborate, but this bitterly cold weather in mid-late November 1993 followed a cold October; in mid-October 1993 northerly winds from the Arctic brought some exceptional cold for so early in the season. Northerly winds brought sleet showers on the 13th October then skies cleared: Overnight 13th/14th October the air temperature fell to -4C and this was followed by a cold sunny day on the 14th with a maximum air temperature of just 6C. Then clear skies with calm conditions led to the air-temperature falling to -8C overnight 14th/15th October; after another sunny day of just 6C a minimum of -8C occurred the following night too (complete with ground-frost of -14C). The ground was rock hard and this was mid-October!! the 16th October was milder with the sun helping raise the air-temperature to 9C whilst the supply of Arctic air was cut off. Even so, clear skies under the high-pressure system ensured that overnight 16th/17th October the air temperature fell to -5C and another (less severe) frost occurred the next night. On 19th October 1993 milder Atlantic air arrived to terminate this early wintry spell, by which time all the trees were entirely bare!

We sure don't seem to get anything like such conditions in these Novembers, even where I live at over 400 metres above sea-level.

[iapennell]

Cold frosty weather in the Autumn and the cold north and north-east airstreams (with clear skies) that help deliver such conditions depend on a number of factors that are (increasingly) very rare in these globally-warmed times:

Firstly, for high-pressure to form in the right place (i.e to the north and north-west of Britain) you need colder-than-normal conditions at the surface over those regions- i.e. over the far North Atlantic. There is a patch of colder-than-normal water in the North Atlantic to the west of Britain but it is positioned too far south and, importantly, sea-surface temperatures in the Arctic North Atlantic remain (and look like they will remain) well above the seasonal norm going into Autumn. This is the opposite of what you need for high-pressure to occur locally. Surface high-pressure tends to occur where there is colder (and therefore) denser air near the surface and where the passage of upper Westerlies over such cooler regions encourage "anticyclonic curvature" in the upper winds which also encourages high-pressure to form beneath it.

Secondly, the higher-latitude Westerlies are likely to be further north than normal because the deep depressions will (as is normally the case) follow the strong baroclinic zone that forms between warmer-than-usual sub-arctic waters and the rapidly-cooling air over the Arctic Ice. The polar ice-cover looks like it will be much-reduced in extent. Furthermore, the further north the Westerlies blow the stronger and more extensive they must be to counter tropical and polar easterlies in order to satisfy the Law of Conservation of Angular Momentum because these winds blow closer to the axis of the Earth's rotation. Strong Westerlies are conducive to high zonal-index macro scale wind and pressure patterns with high pressure in the subtropics and even lower pressure in the sub-arctic. This is quite the opposite of what you need for high-pressure to persist north of Britain in autumn to deliver cold dry frosty spells of weather.

Thirdly, hurricane activity in the tropical North Atlantic looks set to increase as we head towards autumn. Sea-surface temperatures off West Africa are now marginally above-normal. Higher hurricane activity (and typhoon activity in the Pacific) tends to preclude high-latitude blocking in the autumn months; partly because some hurricanes drift north and deliver an energy boost to higher-latitude depressions over the North Atlantic and partly because of the atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) implications of zones of strong easterly winds just north of the ITCZ caused by hurricanes and typhoons. These lead to a corresponding need for stronger Westerlies at higher latitudes to counter-balance them; this again precludes the development of high-latitude blocks.

Fourthly; an early Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) high-up over the Central Arctic would help aid the formation of high-latitude blocks but these are rare in autumn because the strong upper Westerlies are too far north. SSW events tend to follow a major disruption to the Circumpolar Vortex caused by very strong westerly jet-streams impacting on very high mountain areas such as the Himalayas and the Pamirs of Central Asia. The strong atmospheric temperature and pressure gradients are seldom so far south in the autumn months; in recent years- with the retreat of Arctic ice extent and the delayed onset of cold and snow-cover over most of Eurasia and North America this is even less likely. When strong upper westerlies hit lower-latitude mountain ranges it means these strong westerlies counter much of the need for a sink for atmospheric westerly momentum caused by extensive tropical and polar easterlies, so as to satisfy Conservation of Angular Momentum laws. This means the westerlies coming across the North Atlantic can (and do) weaken to the extent that high-pressure can readily form over the cooling land-masses of Scandinavia and Greenland. However, this situation is extremely unlikely to occur before late November.

Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) are due to the warming of the upper-atmosphere high up over the Arctic; these tend to arise when the upper Circumpolar Vortex is weakened to the extent that much warmer upper-level air over much lower latitudes penetrates the Arctic upper-atmosphere in a big way. For this to happen there needs to be a serious disturbance in strong upper Westerlies that encircle the Arctic. It is conceivable that the northernmost part of the Rockies (Mount Logan at over 5900 metres elevation in western Canada and Mt McKinley at over 6000 metres' elevation in Alaska) are high enough to provide this disruption but the higher (and more extensive) Himalayas and Pamirs are also further from the axis of the Earth's rotation and thus act as a much bigger sink for AAM when 100 mph westerly (or north-westerly) winds slam into them. The upper westerlies northwards are then greatly weakened and (with the help of gravity waves caused by strong winds over these mountains) a big upper ridge can build northwards pushing high-up subtropical air far to the north- and into the Arctic. When that happens, surface pressure rises over the Arctic and the storm-tracks get pushed into lower latitudes. Then the westerlies to the south of the storm-tracks blow further from the axis of the Earth's rotation and because, as a result, their frictional impact on AAM is stronger they can be less strong and less extensive vis-á-vis Conservation of Angular Momentum laws. This then increases the scope for cold northerly or easterly winds to reach Britain due to high-latitude blocking. However, as I have already made clear, the circumstances needed for a SSW are not likely to arise until the beginning of the winter.

A final reason why cold dry north and east winds (bringing clear night skies and frosts) are unlikely to reach Britain in the autumn months these years is due to the very locations of the jet-stream and low-level Westerlies themselves: The likely temperature and pressure-patterns going into autumn are not ever likely to favour prevailing winds from those quarters. High-pressure is likely to be persistent at 35N along the subtropical high-pressure belt whilst the storm-tracks are likely to be north of their hitherto normal latitudes for the season owing to the ocean warmth in high latitudes and reduced extent of Arctic ice-cover. This means depressions passing well north of Britain to bring milder west or south-westerly winds; you might get the occasional north-westerly as a depression moves into Scandinavia following which you may get a night or two of ground-frost but that, friends, is likely to be it.

If, and only if, the Circumpolar Vortex was well-expanded would depressions persistently pass south of Britain leading to colder north-east winds: For that to happen (with high-pressure to the north as well) in autumn would require all the North Atlantic from 50 to 65N to be at least 10C colder than in autumn nowadays now along with sea-ice extending to Iceland and northern Norway; such a temperature-pattern over the North Atlantic would shift the main baroclinic zones and thus the storm tracks southwards to 50N. Such cold conditions to the north would then cause the north-easterlies to deliver especially cold dry and frosty conditions in the autumn. However since such a pattern of sea-surface temperatures and sea-ice never happens even in mid-winter these years (and has not since the 1970s) it ain't going to happen in October and November.      

For all these reasons, high-pressure- bringing fine weather- is going to come in from the south when and if it does happen. The winds coming round such high-pressure will be from the west and therefore the air it brings will be too warm (and too moist) to permit night temperatures to drop either to or below freezing point over most of the country until late October or November.      

Edited July 31, 2016 by iapennell
add point, correct spelling mistakes

[damianslaw]

Interesting reading above, we did see very cold conditions late November 2010 which can't be discounted mind, and I've mentioned late Oct 2008, and late Nov 2008 and 2012 saw cold conditions, so we have seen cold weather in recent autumns, its just been more rare than mild autumns, the depth of cold in late Nov 2010 was very extreme though..

Is there a reason why warmer seas over the arctic aren't conducive to high pressure in Autumn, but not so come winter?

 

It would be good to know what SST values over the far north atlantic were like in 2008 in particular which did deliver some cold incursions, 2012 also.. 

1991, 1992 and 1993 delivered three preety chilly autumns, and I think this was down to colder SST's to our north, which backs up your theory, the winters thereafter mind apart from Feb 1994 and a spell in Dec 1992 were very mild...

[iapennell]

6 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Interesting reading above, we did see very cold conditions late November 2010 which can't be discounted mind, and I've mentioned late Oct 2008, and late Nov 2008 and 2012 saw cold conditions, so we have seen cold weather in recent autumns, its just been more rare than mild autumns, the depth of cold in late Nov 2010 was very extreme though..

Is there a reason why warmer seas over the arctic aren't conducive to high pressure in Autumn, but not so come winter?

 

It would be good to know what SST values over the far north atlantic were like in 2008 in particular which did deliver some cold incursions, 2012 also.. 

1991, 1992 and 1993 delivered three preety chilly autumns, and I think this was down to colder SST's to our north, which backs up your theory, the winters thereafter mind apart from Feb 1994 and a spell in Dec 1992 were very mild...

@damianslaw Late November 2010 was indeed very cold with us (-8C was recorded) though the first three weeks of November were relatively mild and very very wet! The extreme cold of late November through December 2010 was exceptional and this was largely due to a SSW event over the central Arctic. The cause of that was an expanded Circumpolar Vortex during November 2010 that led to interaction of strong upper Westerlies against the high mountain ranges of Central Southern Asia and the consequent "uplifting" of atmospheric thickness heights created the conditions for relatively warm upper air to penetrate high over the Arctic. Eurasian snow-cover was unusually extensive early in the season in autumn 2010 and that probably explains the unusual southwards displacement of strong upper Westerlies towards the Pamirs and Himalayas. A similar development with extensive Eurasian (and North American) snow-cover  and expanded Circumpolar Vortex occurred in autumn 2008 though the SST event came later on in the winter.

I would say that surface high-pressure over the Arctic in late November and December 2010 was a result of the SSW event and it occurred despite, not because of reduced surface ice-cover there. By the way, Arctic ice was not that much below normal in late 2008 or late 2010; certainly not as much below normal as in autumn 2007, autumn 2012 or, indeed, last autumn; the SSW combined with slightly more sea-ice in late 2010 to produce stronger Arctic high-pressure which subsequently displaced the storm tracks well south of their normal latitudes. Severe winters in Britain during which blocking highs formed over high-latitudes quite frequently to deliver spells with bitter north or east winds occurred in 1977/78, 1978/79, 1981/82, 1984/85, 1985/86 and in 1986/87 with Arctic sea-ice rather more extensive than the long-term norm in the winter months (in March 1979- a month much-dominated by bitter east winds and heavy snowfalls here- sea-ice encircled Iceland).

High-pressure in high latitudes require two things- cold dense air at the surface and (relatively) warm air with higher "thickness" values overrunning it above. Less sea-ice per-se will therefore never result in higher pressure near the surface in the immediate vicinity although the reduced temperature gradient on the periphery of an ice-free Arctic might well mean weaker storms. On the contrary, if there was no ice in the Arctic at all in winter the upper-air would remain cold with the absence of sunshine and the AAM leading to a tight ring of upper westerlies encircling the Arctic preventing the northwards penetration of warm air; in that situation the ice-free surface and consequently warmer lower atmosphere over an ice-free Arctic Ocean would lead to a persistent broad but deep area of low-pressure centred on or near the North Pole. That would lead to almost continuous storms along the Arctic coastlines of Siberia, Alaska and the Canadian Arctic islands and that (paradoxically) means heavier snowfalls could occur in those regions in winter.  In such a situation the higher-latitude Westerlies would probably become a little stronger still but shift to 55 to 80N leaving much of western Europe under the frequent influence of high-pressure bringing clear skies and colder winter temperatures, but it is extremely improbable that high-pressure could form well to the north of Britain in winter in such circumstances.     

 

[damianslaw]

Thanks for the above, near normal arctic ice levels in 2008 and 2010, helps back up your commentary. It seems Sudden Stratospheric warming events, and mountain torque events have been the main reasons for the colder spells of recent Autumns. Such events are difficult to predict and don't follow regular patterns, and can cause major flips such as occured in Nov 2010. 

The best bet then for colder periods in autumn more likely to come courtesy of anticylonic conditions - more so in terms of night temps, and your comments appear to suggest such conditions will remain slim. However, the Met office update today and your thinking about the first half of autumn, certainly wouldn't result in a particularly warm first half to autumn, indeed I suspect it would feel quite chilly under blustery westerly/northwesterly airstream, which in Sept and first half of Oct would deliver near average mins at the very best and would buck the trend of many recent autumns where high pressure has had a significant presence in the early stages of the autumn. 

If the overall mean pattern of the summer so far continued this autumn, very mild conditions would be fairly fleeting.

 

[Gael_Force]

1 hour ago, iapennell said:

@damianslaw Late November 2010 was indeed very cold with us (-8C was recorded) though the first three weeks of November were relatively mild and very very wet! The extreme cold of late November through December 2010 was exceptional and this was largely due to a SSW event over the central Arctic.

I have followed all the strat threads on here and I dont remember any SSW event in November or December 2010. It is a very specific definition of winds reversing at 10mb and 60 north. If such had happened, it would have been a big talking point on the thread. They were discussing vortex disruption due to very minor warming from wave activity but no SSW.

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/64621-stratosphere-temperature-watch/?page=7

[Relativistic]

7 hours ago, iapennell said:

Cold frosty weather in the Autumn and the cold north and north-east airstreams (with clear skies) that help deliver such conditions depend on a number of factors that are (increasingly) very rare in these globally-warmed times:

...

This has to be the best post ever.

Thanks for taking the time to write such long and informative posts.

Edited July 31, 2016 by Relativistic

[iapennell]

1 hour ago, Gael_Force said:

I have followed all the strat threads on here and I dont remember any SSW event in November or December 2010. It is a very specific definition of winds reversing at 10mb and 60 north. If such had happened, it would have been a big talking point on the thread. They were discussing vortex disruption due to very minor warming from wave activity but no SSW.

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/64621-stratosphere-temperature-watch/?page=7

One thing that does come out of this graph is the fact that SSW events do not occur in the autumn months of October-November, certainly that they have never done so in recent times. This confirms that the Circumpolar Vortex is not expanded to the latitudes whereby strong upper Westerlies interact with the very high mountain-ranges in central Asia to cause a SSW event. But I stand corrected, there is little indication of a major SSW event in November-December 2010 (except for a small spike in December), though I note they occurred both in January 2009 (followed by bitter conditions in early February that year) and January 2010 (a month much punctuated by some very cold weather). That said, I do recall reading an article in the Weather Magazine (from the Royal Met. Society) that I received at that time that this extreme cold in November/December 2010 was due to strong upper westerlies hitting the Himalayas and that this led to high-latitude blocking due to higher atmospheric thickness values being shoved polewards at both the 250 mb and 500 mb levels. One assumes that if that process does not actually extend to the stratosphere it is not a SST.

 

This link below might be of interest, it is an article about SSW events and makes reference to some strong upper-atmospheric warming in high latitudes in mid-November 2010 that preceded the exceptionally cold spell that followed:

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=3&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiTyrPW457OAhViLsAKHY7aCB0QFggxMAI&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.co.uk%2Fblogs%2Fpaulhudson%2Fentries%2Fa1809030-cf7b-3d80-b8c4-b601a0dd4f1b&usg=AFQjCNGwDG1Jen2bMEROf9p8hxnHgkxjvA

Edited July 31, 2016 by iapennell

[Frost HoIIow]

I reckon we will be having some colder Winters again in the next few years - similar to late 2008 onwards. Sun spots are diminishing until at least 2019 if I'm not mistaken. Between late 2008 & 2010 had low sun spots - which as we all know those Winters had some very decent cold and snow. Of course sun spots are not the be all end all for cold Winters, we've had cold snowy Winters without low sunspots but from what I have heard on here by some members low sun spots are one important factor.

Edited July 31, 2016 by Frost HoIIow

[iapennell]

1 minute ago, Frost HoIIow said:

I reckon we will be having some colder Winters again in the next few years - similar to late 2008 onwards. Sun spots are diminishing until at least 2019 if I'm not mistaken. Between late 2008 & 2010 had low sun spots - which as we all know those Winters had some very decent cold and snow. Of course sun spots are not the be all end all for cold Winters, we've had cold snowy Winters without high sunspots but from what I have heard on here by some members low sun spots are one important factor.

Indeed the end of Schwabe Cycle 24 promises to be very quiet. High sunspot activity is correlated with solar flares that impact the atmosphere in such a way so as to increase the strength of higher-latitude Westerlies and in the absence of this happening the Westerlies ought to be weaker, particularly in the autumn and winter months. The quiet Sun will see the Solar Constant dropping by 1 to 2 Watts per square metre which should arrest the decline of Arctic sea-ice levels and offer some scope for recovery compared to long-term norms over the next few years. Since we are discussing Autumn that puts slightly weaker Westerlies crossing the North Atlantic on a somewhat more southerly trajectory, and it increases the scope for incursions of much colder north-westerlies (nothing long-lasting mind you) off the Greenland Ice-cap in coming autumns leading to some early snowfalls and sharp air-frosts such as occurred in Octobers' 2002, 2003 and 2008, particularly across northern Britain.

However, despite the Sun now entering a quiet phase I do not think that patterns of sea-surface temperature, Arctic ice and likely hurricane development in the tropical Atlantic going forward are conducive to any real cold spells in Autumn 2016

[Frost HoIIow]

1 minute ago, iapennell said:

Indeed the end of Schwabe Cycle 24 promises to be very quiet. High sunspot activity is correlated with solar flares that impact the atmosphere in such a way so as to increase the strength of higher-latitude Westerlies and in the absence of this happening the Westerlies ought to be weaker, particularly in the autumn and winter months. The quiet Sun will see the Solar Constant dropping by 1 to 2 Watts per square metre which should arrest the decline of Arctic sea-ice levels and offer some scope for recovery compared to long-term norms over the next few years. Since we are discussing Autumn that puts slightly weaker Westerlies crossing the North Atlantic on a somewhat more southerly trajectory, and it increases the scope for incursions of much colder north-westerlies (nothing long-lasting mind you) off the Greenland Ice-cap in coming autumns leading to some early snowfalls and sharp air-frosts such as occurred in Octobers' 2002, 2003 and 2008, particularly across northern Britain.

However, despite the Sun now entering a quiet phase I do not think that patterns of sea-surface temperature, Arctic ice and likely hurricane development in the tropical Atlantic going forward are conducive to any real cold spells in Autumn 2016

Thanks for the input Ian. Looking forward to your views as we get closer to Winter itself.

[Dangerous55019]

Hopefully a taster of the coming season this morning 
A misty/foggy start to the day here in North East Wales... Once again this lifted my autumnal spirits no end 
As the old weather folk lore says "Observe on what day the first heavy fog occurs, and expect a hard frost on the same day in October."... Time will tell 

[Matthew.]

Would love this in Autumn Even though incredibly strong maybe the cell over the Uk would be better for misty starts.

Edited August 2, 2016 by Matthew Wilson

[Turnedoutniceagain]

It's now full-steam ahead for Autumn. Had a wonderful walk around the Anglesey coastline yesterday - hazelnuts, rowan trees dripping with berries, Lords 'n' Ladies everywhere, Blackberries on the southerly facing hedgerows (very sour), the first red berry on a hawthorn bush, conkers, acorns, wheat harvest in full swing... etc etc

[I remember Atlantic 252]

12 hours ago, Matthew Wilson said:

Would love this in Autumn Even though incredibly strong maybe the cell over the Uk would be better for misty starts.

we don't get those charts anymore, especially not in Feb!

[MP-R]

13 hours ago, Matthew Wilson said:

Would love this in Autumn Even though incredibly strong maybe the cell over the Uk would be better for misty starts.

That's an incredible chart! Haven't had one of those in a few years, I think Feb 2012 was the last time anything close was over the UK?

[Dangerous55019]

Evening all 
I noticed that the Canadian long range Cansips model has been updated again this week, so here is the latest of what its showing...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=global&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2016080100&fh=1&xpos=0&ypos=216

September does look as though low pressure could have more of an influence than normal.

October on the other hand does look to be high pressure dominated!! Not only that (now this is assuming that I'm reading the chart correctly) but the high pressure looks to be centered over us would could 'hopefully' give us the cool (dare I say frosty at this stage??), but hopefully sunny conditions, and possibly the odd bout of misty and fog.

November... Now I've had a look at this closely, and if you do look closely its not quite the Atlantic driven horror story that it first appears... If you zoom in on the image, it shows low pressure to the north and west (sorry Scotland and Northern Ireland) but there does appear to be a very shallow ridge of high pressure over England and Wales!! 

Now I'm no expert, and maybe I'm reading these charts wrongly, likewise, I know long range forecasts are just for fun, and looking for trends, but, but, but, but, I'd say that there is still all to play for at this stage, and hopefully a pleasantly calm, benign, sunny, frosty, foggy autumn could still yet happen... With the odd storm thrown in of course?  
I'll take that with pleasure

Edited August 3, 2016 by Dangerous55019

[Dangerous55019]

Speaking as someone who's been out and about since 05.00 this morning, but something has changed in the night... When I went to bed its was summer (albeit a tad blustery), but today is full on autumn!!
Don't believe me? Just step outside for five minutes and you'll see and feel what I mean 
Personally I've every confidence that summer will make some form of comeback, but autumn has just gained a much stronger foot hold, as the seasons begin to change again 
... But please don't ask me whats changed... I've no idea... But something has 

[Snowologist]

Yes it does feel more autumnal today. I would say it is the blustery wind, but the air is not cold. I like to use the term soft air and therefore it is not unpleasant to be out and about.

[MP-R]

56 minutes ago, Good doing Weather said:

Yes it does feel more autumnal today. I would say it is the blustery wind, but the air is not cold. I like to use the term soft air and therefore it is not unpleasant to be out and about.

Yes I like that term soft air. Definitely applies today. I thought it would be unpleasant hearing the wind outside this morning but left the house and it felt warm. Had been fairly sunny since mid morning too and feeling nice in the sun. 

Now just not happy about this weekends's downgrade in nice weather.

[Wildswimmer Pete]

7 hours ago, Dangerous55019 said:

Speaking as someone who's been out and about since 05.00 this morning, but something has changed in the night... When I went to bed its was summer (albeit a tad blustery), but today is full on autumn!!
Don't believe me? Just step outside for five minutes and you'll see and feel what I mean 
Personally I've every confidence that summer will make some form of comeback, but autumn has just gained a much stronger foot hold, as the seasons begin to change again 
... But please don't ask me whats changed... I've no idea... But something has 

I'm only 20 miles from you and yes, there is a noticeable difference.  Wind direction has changed and I suspect we are now under the influence of Polar Maritime air.  Not particularly chilly overnight, my minimum was 15C however currently I'm seeing only 19C at the warmest part of the day - Liverpool ATIS is reporting 19C with a DP 13C.

[Nick L]

Can we please keep today's weather and summer discussions in the relevant threads? This is to discuss weather prospects for Autumn, thanks.

[StretfordEnd1996]

November 2005 was a cracker and one that has been largely forgotten about, although I must say this heights chart for that month looks very wintry indeed, beats anything we've seen over the last 3 years or so

From what I can remember though it was a very dry affair and one of the reasons it may have been a bit forgotten is it didn't produce any notable snowfall for most of country except from Northern England esp. around Pennines, happily I recorded 10cm or so which lasted a more than a day. 

As for Septembers though, of course we always think of some pleasant and settled weather which is usually mild and very Summer like; on the top of my head though I seem to recall September 2010 as being quite a chilly one? Didn't we get a bit of a Northerly blast? 

 

[Dangerous55019]

6 hours ago, Good doing Weather said:

Yes it does feel more autumnal today. I would say it is the blustery wind, but the air is not cold. I like to use the term soft air and therefore it is not unpleasant to be out and about.

Evening Good Doing Weather 
I also like that term 'Soft Air'. 
Soft autumnal air... I like it 

2 hours ago, SouthPenninesPuppy said:

November 2005 was a cracker and one that has been largely forgotten about, although I must say this heights chart for that month looks very wintry indeed, beats anything we've seen over the last 3 years or so

From what I can remember though it was a very dry affair and one of the reasons it may have been a bit forgotten is it didn't produce any notable snowfall for most of country except from Northern England esp. around Pennines, happily I recorded 10cm or so which lasted a more than a day. 

As for Septembers though, of course we always think of some pleasant and settled weather which is usually mild and very Summer like; on the top of my head though I seem to recall September 2010 as being quite a chilly one? Didn't we get a bit of a Northerly blast? 

 

Evening SPP 
You're right, November 2005 is largely forgotten about, but now you've mentioned it it was a good month... And later on really quite chilly around these parts.
Who knows, hopefully November 2016 could deliver something similar? 
... So if any of the Weather Gods out there are listening (or reading this forum), it would be nice if Autumn 2016 could go out with a November like this 

Edited August 4, 2016 by Dangerous55019
Typo

[MP-R]

A little look at mid September over more recent years... it's not as settled as people make it out to be.

2015

2013

2012

2011

2010

 

The list goes on... Long range forecasts depict similar outcomes for this coming September so nothing unusual there.