autumn Autumn 2016

[Joseph Hudson]

I would like a repeat of last years Autumn . 

[Frosty.]

55 minutes ago, Joseph Hudson said:

I would like a repeat of last years Autumn . 

I wouldn't like a repeat of last year's / early this year's winter..

[Matthew.]

http://www.itv.com/news/anglia/2015-09-07/why-this-weeks-weather-is-often-the-best-of-the-year/

September weather/Indian Summer/Travelling Anticyclone

Edited July 25, 2016 by Matthew Wilson

[Spikey M]

All this talk of crisp mornings. Pah.

Bring me gales, torrential downpours, rough seas and inside out brollies. Oh yes.

Edited July 25, 2016 by Spikey M

[damianslaw]

On 24/07/2016 at 21:21, iapennell said:

Where I live near Nenthead, high up in the North Pennines, we used to get air frosts in August. The last time that happened was in 1999!

Certainly frost used to be more frequent (and more severe) in autumns gone by. I have recorded -3C in late September in 1995 and in October I have recorded -8C (in 1983 and 1993). However in the last 13 years I have recorded nothing below -3C in October and there have been seasons where not a single air-frost has occurred until November. That would have been unthinkable at over 400 metres up in the North Pennines at one time. We also used to have early snowfalls, there was an October evening in the mid 1970s (1974, I believe) when my parents rushed out to get the cows in on our farm (where I still live) because it was snowing hard and the poor cows had four inches of thick snow on their backs!! Yes, this was mid-October! We have now had no October snowfall for eight years. At another extreme we also used to get more severe gales- in early autumn. We would get gales in August and September and severe ones too,- on 27th September 1982 a really severe gale uprooted a tree in the little paddock nest to our home- severe gales are now rare before November.

The autumn storm tracks have shifted northwards to the Arctic and though the westerlies associated with them have become a bit stronger they miss all but NW Scotland until late in the autumn- so we don't get the autumnal equinox gales we once did. Instead these Westerlies- to the north- form a barrier preventing the penetration of very cold Arctic air over Britain for most of the autumn. Also the Arctic has also become a bit less cold in recent autumns.  All of which means less early snowfalls and less early sharp frosts. I suspect that a similar theme will unfold this autumn too.

Autumn 2008, 2010 and 2012 were fairly cold and dry overall with some decent frosts. We got down to -3 degrees in late September 2012 and there was snow in many low lying parts of NE England in late October 2012 - places such as Barnard Castle at least. Late October 2008 delivered low level snowfall to many places in England.

So despite a number of very mild and very wet frostless snowless autumns in the last 10 years, there have been 3 exceptions at least. I've noticed we have seen very few northerly airstreams in recent autumns, many of the colder spells of the 80's and 90's autumns came courtesy of northerly outbreaks and the classic cold ridge thereafter - usually a one or two day affair mind.. It seems are autumn weather has settled into one of two camps, anticyclonic or strong westerly/southwesterly, the NW and N airstreams have been very elusive. My hunch is a drier autumn beckons and there will be some cold frosty weather at times.

[iapennell]

@damianslaw I'd like to think there is a real prospect of high-pressure coming down from Greenland in October to bring the crackly hard frosts at night and crisp sunny days like the autumns of yore. Sadly the Arctic seems to be too warm with not enough ice around and this situation is not likely to change much before mid-October given there is at least six weeks before Arctic ice reaches it's minimum extent. Arctic Ice is at near record lows for the season. It is not conducive to the rapid cooling needed in early autumn to encourage high-latitude blocking-highs to develop.  Sea surface temperatures over a swathe of sub-arctic waters are over 3C above normal which is much more likely to encourage deep depressions to move from Iceland to Arctic Norway ; this is the opposite of what you want in order to have cold dry north or north-east winds that would bring crackly hard frosts in October or November. 

[iapennell]

@damianslaw You mention in your reply the Octobers of 2008 and 2012: Yes I did record snow (just a little) along with some air frosts late in each of these months. However these conditions only occurred during the last week of the month and I recorded extreme minima of -3C in October 2008 and just -2C in October 2012.

However I have recorded much more severe (and persistent) cold in Octobers past. In October 1992 there was air-frost on almost half the nights and there was significant snowfall on the 25th and overnight 30th/31st a minimum temperature of -6C was recorded. The average temperature for the entire month of October 1992 was a chilly 4.4C.

The next year, October 1993 was also cold with a similar number of air frosts. I recorded two nights mid-month a minimum temperature of -8C. Yes, this was in a Stevenson Screen 1.2 metres off the ground ; the ground temperature both nights fell to -14C. Overnight 28th/29th October 1983 also produced a severe air frost with a minimum temperature of -8C. That day, I watched the leaves which had lingered on the ash trees fall off as if cut off with a knife and all trees in the district were entirely bare by the end of that day 

 

Of course, my home is just over 400 metres above sea-level in the North Pennines, but even so we used to get much colder spells of weather from early in the Autumn onwards.

 

[Weather-history]

14 hours ago, Joseph Hudson said:

I would like a repeat of last years Autumn . 

No thanks, at least not the November part of it. That was a terrible month. 

[sundog]

I like autumn , i used to love it but not anymore due to the fact that for much of the season autumn doesnt feel as autumnal as it used to. It just isnt the same anymore most yrs now.

Around halloween time is one of my fav times of the yr but the last 2 yrs around that time has been much milder then normal,so i couldnt even enjoy that ,in fact it was around halloween last yr that the mild weather that we would endure for many weeks set in. Hopfully late oct this yr wil be more traditional.

[Dangerous55019]

On 24/07/2016 at 20:10, Frost HoIIow said:

Great pics Can't wait for the first frost & the first hint of leaf change. It will be here before we know it as we now approach the final Summer month.

Thanks Frost Hollow 

On 25/07/2016 at 10:09, summer blizzard said:

Nov 05 is perhaps the best November as a whole (obviously 2010 had an utterly brilliant end). As soon as the cold front passed on the 7th, it was frigid, frosty and stupidly sunny for the rest of the month.

Evening Summer Blizzard 
I remember November 2005 and what a lovely sunny and frosty month it was 

On 25/07/2016 at 18:49, Karl. said:

I wouldn't like a repeat of last year's / early this year's winter..

Evening Karl
Seconded, thirded and fourthed!! October seemed to be greyer than average (or at least around here it was), and that gave way to November... November last year was awful.
I'm another one who doesn't want a repeat of autumn 2015. 

11 hours ago, Weather-history said:

No thanks, at least not the November part of it. That was a terrible month. 

Evening Weather-history
I agree... November last year was hideous... There were only two days that I found enjoyable... November 1st with the remains of the Halloween fog, and November the 29th, which was a lovely crisp sunny day... But the rest of November was just... well, no thank you.

[Dangerous55019]

I thought I'd have a look at what the long range Canadian Cansips model is showing for this coming autumn.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips®ion=global&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2016070100&fh=2&xpos=0&ypos=216

From what I can see September looks like getting Atlantic driven westerly's, October looks like it could be quite a settled month (please don't let it be a carry on of this current gloomfest), and November looks like it could be, 'unsettled' shall we say.
Now I know that many people don't rate these long range models, but personally I find that they can be useful in giving you a bit of a guide as to what MAY lie ahead 
As with all of these things, the weather is mother nature, and it'll do what it'll do 

[iapennell]

https://nwf.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/uploads/monthly_2016_07/cansips_mslpa_global_3.png.3476fb12d55e63a0956236671ecfc47a.png

With respect to this outlook Autumn 2016 looks like it could shape up decidedly unsettled just about everywhere. Each of the three months depicts high-pressure over the Azores and a healthy Icelandic Low with strong Westerlies in between making a bee-line for the UK. Doesn't look like there will be any crisp frosty weather, judging by these charts I would be inclined to state that most parts of Britain will be waiting until November until they get their first air-frost! 

However I am not so pessimistic about a good deal of fine dry weather in most of England and Wales during September and early October, Scotland along with Cumbria and Northern Ireland will be wet and windy during this period. However with prevailing winds likely to be Westerly even in the South during this period there is unlikely to be any really crisp frosty weather! 

[lassie23]

2 minutes ago, iapennell said:

https://nwf.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/uploads/monthly_2016_07/cansips_mslpa_global_3.png.3476fb12d55e63a0956236671ecfc47a.png

With respect to this outlook Autumn 2016 looks like it could shape up decidedly unsettled just about everywhere. Each of the three months depicts high-pressure over the Azores and a healthy Icelandic Low with strong Westerlies in between making a bee-line for the UK. Doesn't look like there will be any crisp frosty weather, judging by these charts I would be inclined to state that most parts of Britain will be waiting until November until they get their first air-frost! 

However I am not so pessimistic about a good deal of fine dry weather in most of England and Wales during September and early October, Scotland along with Cumbria and Northern Ireland will be wet and windy during this period. However with prevailing winds likely to be Westerly even in the South during this period there is unlikely to be any really crisp frosty weather! 

Well if we get westerly gales in October, then we can rule out any snow in the winter, as fog will be limited, I go by how much fog we get in October as an indicated of how cold the winter will be, I know it's weather folk lore but it works for me. Had no fog for three years now and no snow. Had plenty of fog in 2008, 2010.

[Azazel]

I would like some early Autumn warmth and anti-cyclonic conditions. Nothing better than a warm sunny Autumn day with the beautiful reds and oranges.

 

Then it can get progressively colder and foggier to add some atmosphere around halloween/bonfire night before giving way to a cold, atlantic-less winter which would be great.

 

Not long now until i notice the subtle change in light that heralds the approach of autumn.

Edited July 27, 2016 by Azazel

[MP-R]

10 hours ago, lassie23 said:

Well if we get westerly gales in October, then we can rule out any snow in the winter, as fog will be limited, I go by how much fog we get in October as an indicated of how cold the winter will be, I know it's weather folk lore but it works for me. Had no fog for three years now and no snow. Had plenty of fog in 2008, 2010.

One very recent caveat being last year. Fog on a number of occasions in October and b*gger all cold throughout the winter. 

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Looking forward to Autumn, and hoping it will be an autumn of many Atlantic Storms.  

[I remember Atlantic 252]

15 minutes ago, No Balls Like Snow Balls said:

Looking forward to Autumn, and hoping it will be an autumn of many Atlantic Storms.  

I'm hoping for the opposite! warm Sept, 25C, and dry, dry warm Oct, dry Nov, but as we all know it won't happen as high pressure becoming less frequent as years go on

[mountain shadow]

To be honest, the weather up on here on the Atlantic fringes is becoming permanently Autumn with very little variation is weather from one month to the next.

[B87]

Hopefully it'll make up for the awful sunshine hours we've endured this summer.

[snowtimenow]

4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

I'm hoping for the opposite! warm Sept, 25C, and dry, dry warm Oct, dry Nov, but as we all know it won't happen as high pressure becoming less frequent as years go on

I'll take the warm and dry September but definitely NOT warm and dry for October I'd like frosts by then and very cold, and snow come November, it will not happen of course but one can dream.

[lassie23]

3 hours ago, MP-R said:

One very recent caveat being last year. Fog on a number of occasions in October and b*gger all cold throughout the winter. 

I can flush my theory down the toilet then

[B87]

2 minutes ago, snowtimenow said:

I'll take the warm and dry September but definitely NOT warm and dry for October I'd like frosts by then and very cold, and snow come November, it will not happen of course but one can dream.

I'd like a reasonably warm and dry autumn; September average highs around 22c with 180 hrs of sun, October averaging 17c with 150 hrs sun, November can have all the storms and cloud it wants as long as it's mild, around 12-13c.

[snowtimenow]

2 minutes ago, B87 said:

I'd like a reasonably warm and dry autumn; September average highs around 22c with 180 hrs of sun, October averaging 17c with 150 hrs sun, November can have all the storms and cloud it wants as long as it's mild, around 12-13c.

Hate the word mild for Oct and Nov, mild in those two months is not seasonal, not for me anyway.

[Yarmy]

September warm, October stormy, November crisp and cold.

No chance.

[lassie23]

5 minutes ago, B87 said:

I'd like a reasonably warm and dry autumn; September average highs around 22c with 180 hrs of sun, October averaging 17c with 150 hrs sun, November can have all the storms and cloud it wants as long as it's mild, around 12-13c.

Most Novembers are mild these days so you will probably get what you want, I wouldn't mind an early snow fall and i'm assuming snowtimenow wouldn't either, hence her name Mild Novembers....no thank you