Has this Summer gone to pot because of the transition from El Nino towards La Nina?

[Lake District Blizzards]

i know it was being mentioned as a potential indicator for a rapidly deteriorating Summer.

What is the current situation with La Nina?

May was brilliant, 3/4 of June good here and since then it has been woeful 

[B87]

It started going downhill here in the last week of May, when we were still in El Nino.  June was a complete disaster apart from a few days (the cloudiest on record), and July has started badly, though some average temperatures are on the way.

I thought we might finally see a year with average sunshine, as up until the last week of May we were spot on the average.  As is usual in the current blip, sunshine levels and temperatures nosedived just as summer began.

Edited July 4, 2016 by B87

[Mapantz]

La Nina is currently at 'Watch' status, and if it does slowly develop, it will only start to have effects on land around the Pacific, later this year. The MetO believe that it would have little to no effect on the UK's weather this Summer, and that's something I've always believed for any La Nina event.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

 

Matt Hugo mentions it here with his early thoughts on Winter 2016/17

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=hpnews&id=3300&title=Winter+2016/17

[weatherguru14]

I take Matt Hugo with a pinch of salt...

It could be just  very wet winter rather than very cold. No one knows. Just like Matt tried to predict this summer and had  6 different outcomes each time..

 

[joggs]

I truly believe that the bad run of summers 2007 onwards?, could be due to low solar cycles(even if we're on our way out of a max). Southerly tracking jet.IF that's the case,we're knackt for the next 30,40years or so.

Edited July 6, 2016 by joggs

[Optimus Prime]

Fact is...summers haven't been bad since 2007. I can name plenty of summer months since 2007 that have been great. Ok not on the scale of July 2006 but that shouldn't happen every other year.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Something amiss with the plume activity. Since that sun has gone blank, we aren't even seeing a sniff of any potential of a plume. Certainly nothing like last year anyway. 

[cheese]

I very much doubt it. Neither El Nino or La Nina have much if any impact on Europe's weather.

More than likely, we've just been unlucky with the position of the jet stream.

46 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

Fact is...summers haven't been bad since 2007. I can name plenty of summer months since 2007 that have been great. Ok not on the scale of July 2006 but that shouldn't happen every other year.

Fact is, they have. Every August since 2006 has been cloudier than average. The overwhelming majority of summer months since 2007 have been cloudier than average. For England, the two dullest June's on record have occurred in the past 4 years.

Summers in the UK have never been great, but they've gotten worse. No escaping that.

Edited July 6, 2016 by cheese

[B87]

1 hour ago, cheese said:

I very much doubt it. Neither El Nino or La Nina have much if any impact on Europe's weather.

More than likely, we've just been unlucky with the position of the jet stream.

Fact is, they have. Every August since 2006 has been cloudier than average. The overwhelming majority of summer months since 2007 have been cloudier than average. For England, the two dullest June's on record have occurred in the past 4 years.

Summers in the UK have never been great, but they've gotten worse. No escaping that.

Since 2006, we have seen the 1st and 2nd cloudiest Junes on record, the 9th cloudiest July on record, and 5 of the top 10 cloudiest Augusts on record.

Average summer sunshine values are running about 50-60 hrs below normal, per month.  The last August to record average or above average sunshine was in 2005!

 

Nowadays, months like July/August 1996, July 1997 or July/August 2005 would be seen as great, when in fact they had average temperatures.

[weatherguru14]

1 hour ago, Optimus Prime said:

Fact is...summers haven't been bad since 2007. I can name plenty of summer months since 2007 that have been great. Ok not on the scale of July 2006 but that shouldn't happen every other year.

You must be the only one who thinks summers have been great  in the last 10 years then..we have 1 summer month a year if lucky.  thats VERY  SHORT  in terms of a year,. just 4/5 weeks..

 

[Frost HoIIow]

For as long as I can remember Summers in this country and especially in this part of the UK have been a load of dog turd. Sometimes we do get a nationwide good Summer like some in the 90's and some in the 00's, however the key is in the word "sometimes". They don't happen year in year out, Apart from 83 and 84 Summers in the 80's for the most part were rubbish and most were not great in the 60's & 70's too minus 1976. 

Hence why many people started to book holiday's in Spain, Portugal, Italy, Greece & Turkey - when package holiday's started to become popular rather than holiday here as you just couldn't rely on the Summer weather in the UK to bring sunshine and blue sky - you still can't! Sure people go to the Med for the different culture and food but mostly people go for the sun and heat which is so often in short supply here.

It's like today - it was warmish but dull for the most part. A bit pointless really for people who want proper Summery weather, today sort of reminded me of September, just the obvious difference of more daylight in July. There is still plenty of time for heat, but the further you get past the 2nd week of August it becomes increasingly difficult to get a long lasting one, I don't really count the very warm spell at the end of September 2011 as that was a freak spell, probably a once in 50 year event or something like that. But there is still the potential for heat in the next 5+ weeks. In meteorological terms that is a long while.

Edited July 6, 2016 by Frost HoIIow

[B87]

I'm not even expecting a June 1976, July 2006 or August 1995, I'd be happy with an average summer; 21c June, 24c July, 23c August with 200-220 hrs of sun in each month, and a handful of 30c days scattered around. Something like 1996 or 2005.

Seems impossible these days, we get stuck with highs of 20-21c and 150-170 hrs of sun each month!

Edited July 6, 2016 by B87

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 hours ago, cheese said:

I very much doubt it. Neither El Nino or La Nina have much if any impact on Europe's weather.

More than likely, we've just been unlucky with the position of the jet stream.

I await your research paper on that subject with interest 

I love how you can say that with such confidence given none of the major meteorological agencies world over can categorically deny a link. Never mind the myriad of actual research papers on the issue that you've just disregarded in about half a sentence.

[cheese]

9 hours ago, CreweCold said:

I await your research paper on that subject with interest 

I love how you can say that with such confidence given none of the major meteorological agencies world over can categorically deny a link. Never mind the myriad of actual research papers on the issue that you've just disregarded in about half a sentence.

Oh, you're back - what have we done to deserve this? 

The major meteorological agencies cannot categorically deny a link, because it isn't fully understood how it affects European weather - but it certainly appears that El Nino and La Nina, if they do have any impact on our weather at all, are not major drivers. I suppose it's premature to say that it has no impact on our weather at all, but it's equally premature to say that the transition from El Nino to La Nina is the cause for the poor weather this summer (so far at least).

Edited July 7, 2016 by cheese

[Optimus Prime]

19 hours ago, weatherguru14 said:

You must be the only one who thinks summers have been great  in the last 10 years then..we have 1 summer month a year if lucky.  thats VERY  SHORT  in terms of a year,. just 4/5 weeks..

 

I didn't say the summers have been great, I said summer months. These years all had very respectable warm weather for long periods for my region;

June 2010; 10th warmest on record by mean maximum (20.3c)

July 2013; 5th warmest by mean maximum (23.6c)

July 2014; 10th warmest by mean maximum (22.7c)

June 2010 was the 8th sunniest (262.5 hrs)

July 2013 2nd sunniest on record (291.9 hrs)

July 2014 10th sunniest on record (269.2 hrs)

There have been other decent summer months that have been statistically better than the 81-10 average but outside the top 10. Outside of summer we have April 2010, 2011 and 2014, September and October 2014 and October 2011, March 2012 and 2014 which were all unusually warm and pleasant months.

August is really the only month that has been disappointing.

 

[hillbilly]

19 hours ago, Frost HoIIow said:

For as long as I can remember Summers in this country and especially in this part of the UK have been a load of dog turd. Sometimes we do get a nationwide good Summer like some in the 90's and some in the 00's, however the key is in the word "sometimes". They don't happen year in year out, Apart from 83 and 84 Summers in the 80's for the most part were rubbish and most were not great in the 60's & 70's too minus 1976. 

Hence why many people started to book holiday's in Spain, Portugal, Italy, Greece & Turkey - when package holiday's started to become popular rather than holiday here as you just couldn't rely on the Summer weather in the UK to bring sunshine and blue sky - you still can't! Sure people go to the Med for the different culture and food but mostly people go for the sun and heat which is so often in short supply here.

It's like today - it was warmish but dull for the most part. A bit pointless really for people who want proper Summery weather, today sort of reminded me of September, just the obvious difference of more daylight in July. There is still plenty of time for heat, but the further you get past the 2nd week of August it becomes increasingly difficult to get a long lasting one, I don't really count the very warm spell at the end of September 2011 as that was a freak spell, probably a once in 50 year event or something like that. But there is still the potential for heat in the next 5+ weeks. In meteorological terms that is a long while.

You only live over the hill from here and weather here is worse than yours as we are sat in the hills but I think your statement is  illthought and incorrect .I was brought up on a farm and I judge my summers on Haymaking not sunshine stats,you need warm days and sunshine preferably a few together.Yes we have had poor summers but have had more very good ones than poor with the majority average .ie at least 3 weeks of warm sunny weather scattered across the summer.All the years since I was a kid in the early 70s fit this bill with only 1977 and 1980 being less than average in my early years.There were 85,86,87 and 88 all practically poor but had at least some days good for hay but more than made up by 1983,84 and 89[you missed that one]The 90s were all better than average or amazing except 1998 then 2000.01 good,a poor 2002 a decent 04 and 05 with thevery good 03 and 06.I never remember haymaking in September,and 90% is usually done by the end of July but since 2007 it has been completely different being cooler cloudier and wet.We have had to go into September on 4 occasions with 2008 summer starting half way through that month.There has been a severe shortage of warm sunny days clustered together with Julys and Augusts being shockers except for July 2013.Even after all these indifferent years we still have not started this year,something practically unheard of before 2007 !

[Frost HoIIow]

29 minutes ago, hillbilly said:

You only live over the hill from here and weather here is worse than yours as we are sat in the hills but I think your statement is  illthought and incorrect .I was brought up on a farm and I judge my summers on Haymaking not sunshine stats,you need warm days and sunshine preferably a few together.Yes we have had poor summers but have had more very good ones than poor with the majority average .ie at least 3 weeks of warm sunny weather scattered across the summer.All the years since I was a kid in the early 70s fit this bill with only 1977 and 1980 being less than average in my early years.There were 85,86,87 and 88 all practically poor but had at least some days good for hay but more than made up by 1983,84 and 89[you missed that one]The 90s were all better than average or amazing except 1998 then 2000.01 good,a poor 2002 a decent 04 and 05 with thevery good 03 and 06.I never remember haymaking in September,and 90% is usually done by the end of July but since 2007 it has been completely different being cooler cloudier and wet.We have had to go into September on 4 occasions with 2008 summer starting half way through that month.There has been a severe shortage of warm sunny days clustered together with Julys and Augusts being shockers except for July 2013.Even after all these indifferent years we still have not started this year,something practically unheard of before 2007 !

I don't think my comment is "ill thought and incorrect" at all. It's purely from what I have experienced over the years. Look our Summers have never been great or reliable at least not where I live. We have a maritime climate all year round & that means plentiful rain even in Summer. Like I say even years ago people didn't book holidays in the Med for nowt. It was because of the bloody rain in this country. I think as soon as you get over the M62 summit into Yorkshire things become a lot drier than here even with height. Been many times I have driven over and it's dry as a bone even at 300m in Yorkshire but soaking wet a lot lower than that on the Lancashire/Gtr Manchester side because of the rain shadow effect. The differences over just a couple of miles can be unbelievable.

Edited July 7, 2016 by Frost HoIIow

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

On ‎04‎/‎07‎/‎2016 at 20:24, Lake District Blizzards said:

i know it was being mentioned as a potential indicator for a rapidly deteriorating Summer.

What is the current situation with La Nina?

May was brilliant, 3/4 of June good here and since then it has been woeful 

There was a lot of hype from these big "weather boffins" that this summer would be a decent one and I think this just drove our expectations too high.  Yes id say its el nino/la nina related. We were told in January that due to the strong el nino that weather records will be broken well into the year, people were thinking because its summer it will be record breaking heat and sunshine all round... the records broken so far are June being the miserable and cloudiest according to the met office and August is set to be the windiest and wettest.