Summer 2016 is so awful because...................

[sarah1953]

Hi,

 

Is anyone able to explain what has happened to our weather this summer? Is the lack of sunshine and awful torrential rain due to something not budging from the Atlantic? I don't really understand this in meteorological terms so if you know why would you please write  "in simple form" lol

 

Thank you in anticipation,

 

Sarah

[weatherguru14]

Recently its not been very windy and felt rather muggy thats because we have been under a low thats just been sat out to west and done nothing.. Nothing shifted it..Now the past 2/3 days we had the jet more active and like any time of  the year. its been bringing in low after low off the atlantic.

[Woollymummy]

 

The problem is the jetstream, cold polar air coming near to us and meeting warm air either right over us or just south of us, so we either get wet and windy, or cold. Or warm/damp. Every few days might be a bit of change between the cold, and the wet and windy. Or just persistently one or the other.

[Woollymummy]

No idea if this is on of the reasons, but it seems interesting:

https://robertscribbler.com/2016/06/28/gigantic-gravity-waves-to-mix-winter-with-summer-wrecked-jet-stream-now-runs-from-pole-to-pole/

 

[B87]

It's been record cloudy.  Infact, to equal our current cloudiest June on record (2012), we will need to record 20.4 hours of sun tomorrow...

We might not even make the 3 figures, currently on 98.1 hours.

Here's the list of our top 10 cloudiest Junes.  There's going to be a huge gap from 1st to 2nd, and from 2nd to 3rd.

June 2012: 118.5 hrs
June 1990: 132.5 hrs
June 1987: 132.9 hrs
June 1977: 134.8 hrs
June 1991: 135.0 hrs
June 2007: 139.7 hrs
June 1979: 140.3 hrs
June 1971: 145.4 hrs
June 1997: 151.6 hrs
June 1981: 152.1 hrs
 

[sarah1953]

41 minutes ago, Woollymummy said:

 

The problem is the jetstream, cold polar air coming near to us and meeting warm air either right over us or just south of us, so we either get wet and windy, or cold. Or warm/damp. Every few days might be a bit of change between the cold, and the wet and windy. Or just persistently one or the other.

Thank you for the maps, yes I understand this but could the jetstream actually stay like this for our whole summer? I've never known a summer like this. I moved to the coast last year to East Anglia to enjoy the sun and beach but so far this year I've not sat on it!

[sarah1953]

33 minutes ago, B87 said:

It's been record cloudy.  Infact, to equal our current cloudiest June on record (2012), we will need to record 20.4 hours of sun tomorrow...

We might not even make the 3 figures, currently on 98.1 hours.

Here's the list of our top 10 cloudiest Junes.  There's going to be a huge gap from 1st to 2nd, and from 2nd to 3rd.

June 2012: 118.5 hrs
June 1990: 132.5 hrs
June 1987: 132.9 hrs
June 1977: 134.8 hrs
June 1991: 135.0 hrs
June 2007: 139.7 hrs
June 1979: 140.3 hrs
June 1971: 145.4 hrs
June 1997: 151.6 hrs
June 1981: 152.1 hrs
 

Thanks but how depressing. And it's not just cloudy here it's windy and chilly too

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

Isn't there a theory that a warmer atmosphere = more moisture held aloft = more cloud, especially at certain latitudes ? Added to that the theory that a warmer Arctic relative to mid-latitudes is affecting the jet stream in summer, i.e. keeping it more active and further south ? Put the two together and it doesn't make for good reading if you're a UK dweller who enjoys sunshine and long hot summers................

Edited June 30, 2016 by Pennine Ten Foot Drifts

[sarah1953]

1 minute ago, Pennine Ten Foot Drifts said:

Isn't there a theory that a warmer atmosphere = more moisture held aloft = more cloud, especially at certain latitudes ? Added to that the theory that a warmer Arctic relative to mid-latitudes is affecting the jet stream in summer, i.e. keeping more active and further south ? Put the two together and it doesn't make for good reading if you're a UK dweller who enjoys sunshine and long hot summers................

No it doesn't, I will definitely keep on trying to win the lottery!!!

[Costa Del Fal]

9 hours ago, Pennine Ten Foot Drifts said:

Isn't there a theory that a warmer atmosphere = more moisture held aloft = more cloud, especially at certain latitudes ? Added to that the theory that a warmer Arctic relative to mid-latitudes is affecting the jet stream in summer, i.e. keeping it more active and further south ? Put the two together and it doesn't make for good reading if you're a UK dweller who enjoys sunshine and long hot summers................

Looking at the charts posted a few posts above and what has happened so much in recent times is that in the W Atlantic, the Jet stream is running at a position that at our longitude on Earth, many would have good summer weather but time after time a kink develops and the jet suddenly dives south just before it reaches the UK, bringing us back on the cool, wet side of things. Fed up of it.  I really think Arctic ice melt has a lot to answer for. If so, our summers will not get better for a long time yet.

Edited June 30, 2016 by Costa Del Fal

[B87]

So it sounds like we are doomed to suffer 21c Julys, with 80mm precip and 160-170 hrs of sun for the next few decades then.

 

[stainesbloke]

32 minutes ago, B87 said:

So it sounds like we are doomed to suffer 21c Julys, with 80mm precip and 160-170 hrs of sun for the next few decades then.

 

Ghastly if true!

[lassie23]

24 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Ghastly if true!

I'd relocate if i were you.

[hillbilly]

18 hours ago, sarah1953 said:

Thanks but how depressing. And it's not just cloudy here it's windy and chilly too

Figures for this area

1998....105 hrs

2012       101

1958       98

1982     94

1990      90

1987       79 hrs

[cheese]

3 hours ago, lassie23 said:

I'd relocate if i were you.

Considering it!

[stainesbloke]

18 hours ago, lassie23 said:

I'd relocate if i were you.

Lol.....it's in the pipeline Lassie. No concrete plans but discussions are taking place and options explored. Brexit might change plans a bit, will have to wait and see. 

[B87]

With the below average temps, above average rain and well below average sun hours we've had since 2007, coupled with the possible Brexit, I might move to Brisbane if the situation allows.

 

I'm fed up of the abnormal summers we've had since 2007. They are not typical British summers, no matter what anyone says.

[weatherguru14]

But they are.. we get the odd warm spell now and then. But our weather is not consistently settled..

[B87]

5 minutes ago, weatherguru14 said:

But they are.. we get the odd warm spell now and then. But our weather is not consistently settled..

Our normal summers average 21c in June, July/August average between 23-24c, with around 6-8 hours of sun per day, and 6-8 rainy days per month.  We haven't had anything like that since 2007, especially in August.  We should be getting around 10 days above 25c in July, and 8 in August (with 28 such days over the summer), along with 4-5 30c days per summer.  We aren't getting that either.

 

Our average sun hours are 205 hrs for June, 212 hrs for July and 205 hrs for August.  Since 2007 we've averaged 180 in June and July, and about 150 in August.

Right now it's 15c, about 8c below normal for early July.

Edited July 1, 2016 by B87

[weatherguru14]

But you just mentioned the last 10 years have been poor.. how can you say that, then  expect something different.. This how it works . they take a 20 year period of summer months and get the average from that.. so out of 20 julys the over all average is worked out.. This is where  the likes of July 2013 make a mockery of the over all average.. because that was a very hot July..

so basically you can have 2006 and 2013 and then have  5 poorish Julys and the over all average of 23 in london will remain..

Edited July 1, 2016 by weatherguru14

[B87]

5 minutes ago, weatherguru14 said:

But you just mentioned the last 10 years have been poor.. how can you say that, then  expect something different.. This how it works . they take a 20 year period of summer months and get the average from that.. so out of 20 julys the over all average is worked out.. This is where  the likes of July 2013 make a mockery of the over all average.. because that was a very hot July..

so basically you can have 2006 and 2013 and then have  5 poorish Julys and the over all average of 23 in london will remain..

It's a 30 year average, and the previous 10 years from 1997-2006 had temperatures and sunshine a lot closer to the long term average than from 2007-now. 

Julys averaging 21c are not normal. July 1996, 1997 and 2005 are what I would consider a typical July here.

 

Edited July 1, 2016 by B87

[weatherguru14]

Long term average for that decade.. you don't seem to grasp it do ya..You are cherry picking the previous 10 year period rather than the last 10 years.

[Nouska]

20 hours ago, Costa Del Fal said:

Looking at the charts posted a few posts above and what has happened so much in recent times is that in the W Atlantic, the Jet stream is running at a position that at our longitude on Earth, many would have good summer weather but time after time a kink develops and the jet suddenly dives south just before it reaches the UK, bringing us back on the cool, wet side of things. Fed up of it.  I really think Arctic ice melt has a lot to answer for. If so, our summers will not get better for a long time yet.

The current low solar cycle may be playing a part too.

 On all timescales, flood frequency is higher when
solar activity is reduced. In addition, the configuration of at-
mospheric  circulation  associated  with  periods  of  increased
River  Ammer  flood  frequency  broadly  resembles  that  dur-
ing intervals of reduced solar activity, as expected to be in-
duced by the so-called solar top-down mechanism by model
studies.  Both  atmospheric  patterns  are  characterized  by  an
increase in meridional airflow associated with enhanced at-
mospheric blocking over central Europe. Therefore, the sig-
nificant correlations as well as similar atmospheric circula-
tion patterns might provide empirical support for a solar in-
fluence on hydroclimate extremes in central Europe during
spring and summer by the so-called solar top-down mecha-
nism

http://www.clim-past.net/12/799/2016/cp-12-799-2016.pdf

The top down mechanism is more referred to in winter circulation where the status of the stratosphere is involved in producing colder periods but who knows what influences have been created by all the 'exceptional' events of recent times. The latest is that the QBO is doing something strange or at least not seen in the limited record we have.

[B87]

32 minutes ago, weatherguru14 said:

Long term average for that decade.. you don't seem to grasp it do ya..You are cherry picking the previous 10 year period rather than the last 10 years.

No I'm not, I'm saying that the 1997-2006 period was closer to average than the 2007-2015 period.  I'm not saying that the 1997-2006 period IS the average.

[Azazel]

I would definitely love to re-locate, even to the near continent where they get decent storms and a summer.

 

That green blob on the charts always seems to extend down from the pole and frame the UK in a perfect teardrop.