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UK & EU Economies post Brexit

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2 minutes ago, kar999 said:

I get the impression the EFTA don't want us either!

Norway may block UK return to European Free Trade Association

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/aug/09/norway-may-block-uk-return-to-european-free-trade-association

.

 

Would not surprise me, why would anyone want to be part of anything with the moaniest, fussiest nation that I know of, England.

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18 minutes ago, mike Meehan said:

Currently three of the potential candidates, Sarkozy, Juppé and Le Penn, for the French Presidency next spring appear to making noises in relation to getting the Sandgate Treaty abolished.

Although this treaty is separate to the EU I suspect that if it were not for the brexit vote business as usual would have remained, so there is a further possible headache to consider with the possibility of the vote making things worse rather than better.

So if le penn got in  the only reason the Sandgate treaty could  be abolished will be because of Brexit?  Really?  I thing its more to do with the fact that the right wing and nationalism is rising in Europe  and at the moment most of the candidates will do anything to appease the right. Regardless of a Brexit  this would have still been on the agenda 

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4 minutes ago, weirpig said:

So if le penn got in  the only reason the Sandgate treaty could  be abolished will be because of Brexit?  Really?  I thing its more to do with the fact that the right wing and nationalism is rising in Europe  and at the moment most of the candidates will do anything to appease the right. Regardless of a Brexit  this would have still been on the agenda 

I agree, our very own brexit happened for the same reasons. What's happening in all of Europe right now is not good.

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27 minutes ago, mike Meehan said:

Currently three of the potential candidates, Sarkozy, Juppé and Le Penn[...]

With a choice like that...Time for French folks to read-up on Oriental suicide techniques?:shok:

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10 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

I agree, our very own brexit happened for the same reasons. What's happening in all of Europe right now is not good.

There's much less support for right-wing nationalism in Europe than the British press make out.

It's strongest in the UK. After all, the UK is the only country that has voted to leave, with a dislike of foreigners central to this. Support for the EU is growing everywhere else based on recent polling.

The UK parties / media are just projecting, i.e. denying the rise of the UK right and projecting that negative trait onto Europe.

Quote

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychological_projection

Psychological projection is a theory in psychology in which humans defend themselves against their own unconscious impulses or qualities (both positive and negative) by denying their existence in themselves while attributing them to others.

The UN have made their views clear on this matter.

Quote

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-37193140

UN blames UK politicians for Brexit hate crime spike

"Divisive" and "anti-immigrant" rhetoric by UK politicians during the EU referendum helped to fuel a spike in race hate crimes in the weeks before and after the vote, a UN body has said.

It said prominent political figures had "failed to condemn" racist abuse and created prejudices during the campaign.

Some 3,198 hate crimes were reported from 16-30 June - a 42% rise on 2015.

 

Edited by scottish skier

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1 minute ago, scottish skier said:

There's much less support for right-wing nationalism in Europe than the British press make out.

It's strongest in the UK. After all, the UK is the only country that has voted to leave. Support for the EU is growing everywhere else based on recent polling.

The UK parties / media are just projecting, i.e. denying the rise of its own right and projecting that onto Europe.

 

Just to clarify.  you dont think their is a rise of the right in Europe?

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6 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Just to clarify.  you dont think their is a rise of the right in Europe?

Yes, but it's strongest in the UK. 

Apart from Austria, support for the right is pretty weak.

That's why the UK is heading out of the EU and nobody else is.

_89772470_eu_far_right_23052016_624map.p

It's a big reason I want Scotland out of the UK; because the EU is more centre left.

Hell, there's not even a centre-left UK party to vote for, they are all centre right (Corbyns failing efforts excluded). Just the lonely SNP and a few greens.

Edited by scottish skier

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Apart from Austria?  Danish peoples party  results 2015  they won 21percent    Finns party  (finland) 18 percent  Nf  In france  28percent in 2015     Hungary 45 percent KDNP   Poland  law and justice party 38 percent    Swiss peoples party  29 percent   Romanians peoples party 14 percent    Thats just a small sample    UKIP Got  13 percent in 2015    its not just the uk  were the right is on the march

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7 minutes ago, scottish skier said:

Yes, but it's strongest in the UK. 

Apart from Austria, support for the right is pretty weak.

That's why the UK is heading out of the EU and nobody else is.

_89772470_eu_far_right_23052016_624map.p

It's a big reason I want Scotland out of the UK; because the EU is more centre left.

Hell, there's not even a centre-left UK party to vote for, they are all centre right (Corbyns failing efforts excluded). Just the lonely SNP and a few greens.

True...And if it weren't for our right-wing press (that has supported fascist movements since the 1930s?), the fabrications might have had less of an impact on the recent referendum...Who, might one ask, were supposed to be swayed by Farage's obscene poster?

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15 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Apart from Austria?  Danish peoples party  results 2015  they won 21percent    Finns party  (finland) 18 percent  Nf  In france  28percent in 2015     Hungary 45 percent KDNP   Poland  law and justice party 38 percent    Swiss peoples party  29 percent   Romanians peoples party 14 percent    Thats just a small sample    UKIP Got  13 percent in 2015    its not just the uk  were the right is on the march

But what you haven't factored in is how many voted for the right of right of center conservatives, they have moved further right than UKIP, you can see the in the political charts. The ones everyone seems to think are wrong.

Edited by alexisj9

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17 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Apart from Austria?  Danish peoples party  results 2015  they won 21percent    Finns party  (finland) 18 percent  Nf  In france  28percent in 2015     Hungary 45 percent KDNP   Poland  law and justice party 38 percent    Swiss peoples party  29 percent   Romanians peoples party 14 percent    Thats just a small sample    UKIP Got  13 percent in 2015    its not just the uk  were the right is on the march

20% or less is rubbish. You'll not get anywhere near government with that. That's minor party status; hell 80% against you. Jeez, one third of brits openly admit to racial prejudice....

And it's typical BBC cherry picking going on. NF do not have 28% of seats in the French parliament; they've picked out a protest vote in the regional elections. NF didn't win a single region. French always vote NF when protesting about the crapness of the two main parties.

Poland Law and Justice party are not really different to the UK Tories.

Switzerland is not in the EU because it's quite right-wing. It's why the Brexiters like it.

Call me when the right form the government of another country and lead it to an EU exit with immigration as the main campaigning issue, like England and Wales.

The UK is overall the most right-wing country outside of some eastern European nations like Hungary. It doesn't even have a left wing part of significance, much as Corybn is trying (and being shot to hell for it)..

I agree it's an issue in the EU, but Britain is right up there at the top of the list. It's why we had Labour mugs with 'immigration' on them for example.

Edited by scottish skier

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6 minutes ago, Paul said:

I'd also add that in terms of the UK voting to leave the EU, it wasn't just the 'right' which voted for it - 30% plus of labour, snp, libdem voters also voted for it, along with 25% of greens.

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/

Agreed... as I post a few days ago people of all political colours voted for all sorts of various reasons.

 

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Jeez chill out you won't see an independent Scotland at this rate  and I so want that to happen soon 

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So brexit is a left / social democratic liberal led movement?

Wow. Who new.

I shall rest easy knowing freedom of movement shall be maintained, the human rights act will be strengthened, the welfare state expanded, taxes raised for the wealthy etc, there will be no anti-immigrant rhetoric used by mainstream politicians, hate crime will fall away...

I know people of all parties voted for it in varying numbers, but that ashcroft link shows a direct linear correlation between how right a party is and increasing support for brexit.

(Left liberal / least leave) Greens-SNP-Lib-Lab-Con-UKIP (Right / most leave)

LR-by-party-768x558.jpg

Edited by scottish skier

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While i tend to agree that the 'european earthquake' is a bit overdone, it's interesting that SS excluded pro-EU but broadly anti-immigrant parties. By that logic a federal EU which went all Trump could never be nationalist. 

In the UK we're obviously more nationalist than people thought but the Tories are pretty tame.

In France i suspect the EPP will win at both a parliamentary and presidential level but the National Front is pretty strong. 

Austria will probably see a far right president though a bit powerless. 

Hungary and Poland have both elected governments from the same European Parliament block as the Tories and their attitude to non-U immigrants is pretty extreme. 

Edited by summer blizzard

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8 minutes ago, kar999 said:

Agreed... as I post a few days ago people of all political colours voted for all sorts of various reasons.

 

Yep, and the Left were always likely to vote exit anyway, like corbyn himself they have always been anti EU but for other reasons. Not because of red tape or workers right or the freedom of movement.

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-I think the old right vs authoritarian confusion is coming into play.

The authoritarian left back brexit as do the authoritarian centre and right. Hell, the BNP are quite socialist; as long as you are white british that is.

So, the militant socialist left types are often brexiters. 

The liberal left like the Greens are much more likely to be pro-EU.

However, I don't think anyone can seriously argue that the UK faces a centre-left liberal future outside the EU. Brexit was very much led by the authoritarian right, with the odd Marxist turkey voting for Christmas.

--

EDIT

On the EU itself...

The EU parliament is very well balanced; roughly split between left and right; left has the edge excluding the independents / unaligned.

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/elections2014-results/en/election-results-2014.html

Certainly not dominated by the right.

Edited by scottish skier

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26 minutes ago, scottish skier said:

 

LR-by-party-768x558.jpg

I think the 4% UKIP who voted remain firmly fall into the very stupid people voting for very stupid reasons category I alluded to earlier. :nea:

Edited by kar999

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32 minutes ago, scottish skier said:

So brexit is a left / social democratic liberal led movement?

Wow. Who new.

Nobody said that. But on the same hand, I think it's entirely fair to say that a reasonable proportion of those who voted for left of centre parties at the last election did vote for it, so it certainly wasn't entirely 'right wing' driven. 

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20 minutes ago, Paul said:

Nobody said that. But on the same hand, I think it's entirely fair to say that a reasonable proportion of those who voted for left of centre parties at the last election did vote for it, so it certainly wasn't entirely 'right wing' driven. 

By driven, I mean 'led by'. Sure some left of centre were passengers. I don't know why they thought handing the keys to the right was wise, but there you go.

Note the only main GB parties that stood at the last election on clear centre left policy platforms were the Greens and the SNP. 

uk2015.png

However, plenty of left wing voters in England voted Lab or lib dem through lack of options.

On this topic...

Self described political positions. Yougov August 2016.

Leave voters
14% Left
22% Centre
33% Right

Remain voters
44% Left
21% Centre
19% Right

Remain much more centre-left / Leave notably more centre-right. The bulk of 'right' remain voters (14 of the 19%) described themselves as 'just right of centre'.

Edited by scottish skier

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14 minutes ago, scottish skier said:

By driven, I mean 'led by'. Sure some left of centre were passengers. I don't know why they thought handing the keys to the right was wise, but there you go.

 

It's all semantics tbh, I'm not entirely sure what point it is you're wanting to make now, as we're off on a tangent here, and if I'm honest I can't imagine Ed Milliband would agree the labour party was right of centre at the last election, and I don't know that UKIP could be considered less right of centre than the cons, but that's equally not on topic as well I think, and I may be misreading the diagram in any case.

Looking at the main points of disagreement this pm - was it just the right who voted for brexit? I think we can safely say no it wasn't. 

Is the rise of the right in Europe just limited to the UK? No I think we can also say it's not. 

Did the right lead the Brexit push? Yes I think we can all agree on that too. 

So what exactly are we disagreeing about? :D 

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I don't think we're really arguing / disagreeing, only discussing finer points.

The right led brexit in terms of the campaign parties / figure heads / activists / voters etc, although a significant minority of left voters backed it. I can't think of anyone of note on the left that backed brexit apart from few oddballs like George Galloway. That and lefties we are told are very dangerous like Corbyn, although he outwardly backed Remain.

I can think of Tory/ UKIP / BNP / NF etc backing leave though, with lots of faces to go with that.

This is why we've seen a rise in hate crime; the far right think they won even if a good lot of lefties backed it.

If brexit had been led by left liberal figures, that wouldn't have been the case I imagine.

----

Anyway, steering back on topic:

Quote

http://uk.businessinsider.com/pantheon-macroeconomics-research-brexit-is-ruining-the-british-economy-2016-8

The idea that Brexit isn't totally screwing the economy is 'baloney'

Arguing that Britain's decision to leave the European Union will not have a substantial negative impact on the British economy is "baloney" according to economists from Pantheon Macroeconomics.

Since Britain voted to leave the EU in June, economic data has been mixed. In the immediate aftermath, the well-respected PMI surveys compiled by Markit showed that services, manufacturing, and construction all witnessed big drops in activity and sentiment thanks to the vote.

However, since those initial surveys, several data points have suggested that the country is actually managing pretty well in the wake of the historic vote. In the last month UK GDP for the second quarter of 2016 beat expectations, retail sales grew unexpectedly, and unemployment remained at record lows.

All of this has led many of those who backed Brexit to argue that the economic doom and gloom predicted by the likes of Bank of England governor Mark Carney and the International Monetary Fund, is not actually going to materialise.

That is a view Pantheon's Chief UK Economist Samuel Tombs profoundly disagrees with. In a note titled "Reports of the Economy's Resilience are Greatly Exaggerated" circulated to clients on Tuesday, Tombs argues that this suggestion is essentially a fantasy...

...Pantheon does note that it cannot say with any certainty whether or not the economy has taken a substantial hit in the two months since the Brexit vote, but argues that we will get a clearer picture once official ONS data on industrial, construction and services output for July is released.

The research house does conclude that: "From the indicators released so far, however, there is little to support the complacent but popular narrative that the economy has brushed off the referendum result."

It's my problem too. I'm not seeing any good signs to say all is well. At the same time, we don't have enough data to conclude what is really happening.

It's very worrying.

Edited by scottish skier

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7 hours ago, kar999 said:

If I knew what exchange rates were going to be in 2-3 years time I wouldn't be sitting here but lying next to a pool in the Cayman Islands sipping cocktails whilst my man servant types this for me.

In the absence of Mystic Meg fortune telling skills the only data any of us have is forward contract rates. These being c. $1.31-$1.33 for 2017-2018 as at this morning. That represents a 9-10% increase.. As mentioned before many companies will be booking contracts at those rates for their purchases which will feed it's way into price increases and inflation.

The same principle applies to EU goods being more expensive which you already have acknowledged..

Our exporters will be happy as their revenues will be higher but as we are a net importer it's far from a balanced equation. With no manufacturing infrastructure or capacity to speak off I cant see the balance restored anytime soon if at all. When we sourced all our bulk manufacturing off shore we burnt most of our bridges.The foundries and Black Country factories where I worked as a lad are now retail parks and houses. Most of our growth in manufacturing of late has been highly profitable niche non-volume types at which we excel.

Good post Kar..

So can we all work on 10% for the exchange rate differential?

I really do wonder whether the our manufacturing base will continue to function as our primary focus -  whether we are in or out of the EU.

Our 'old' manufacturing base is now providing only  10-15% of our total export market.

I agree that we should consider the move into new technology areas. and I do really wonder whether the 'old' will be able to contribute much in the  future.

My point has always been that this will be the case whether we are in or out. Brexit will only serve to speed up the process.

MIA

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4 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Something should really be done about those non-European nations. 

What are you suggesting SB, eugenics? 

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