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UK & EU Economies post Brexit

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20 minutes ago, scottish skier said:

It was more you seeming to put words in my mouth. If I'd actually tried to claim the drop in bank holiday footfall was directly brexit related, you'd have a case to argue with me. But I didn't. I just posted what is currently the headline story of the business section on the BBC into a thread on the UK economy.

footfall.jpg

I thought it particularly relevant because there was so much discussion about how July's figure's were apparently a positive brexit sign. I trust you agree we can't conclude that as it's not clear, just as the new bank holiday footfall data is open to interpretation.

This being a Brexit related discussion, I'm thinking most people would expect that anything posted in here is related to that, and to be honest, I'm not entirely sure you'd have been posting a link to that article if it didn't show a negative. Maybe I'm wrong, but I honestly can only come to that conclusion based on the other posts you've made over recent months. That's not a moderation thing, and is purely a personal point of view, but if you're upset that for some reason I 'put words in your mouth' then the only words I've put there are based on the views you've been expressing.

I don't have a problem with you having your views, everyone is entitled to that, but when someone who makes their views abundantly clear, then posts a link which apparently supports those views, even if they don't comment as such, I don't think it's a huge jump to put that link into the context of those views, and comment as such. But I'm sorry you feel like you've been wronged in some way by me doing so.

Moving on from that though. Yes, I absolutely agree that the July retail figures had zilch to do with Brexit, except perhaps in the fact that the negative sentiment in June around the time of the vote, may have lead to spending being put off, with that 'surplus' spent then. 

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14 minutes ago, Paul said:

This being a Brexit related discussion, I'm thinking most people would expect that anything posted in here is related to that, and to be honest, I'm not entirely sure you'd have been posting a link to that article if it didn't show a negative. Maybe I'm wrong, but I honestly can only come to that conclusion based on the other posts you've made over recent months. That's not a moderation thing, and is purely a personal point of view, but if you're upset that for some reason I 'put words in your mouth' then the only words I've put there are based on the views you've been expressing.

Do we have a UK economy that isn't post brexit? Everything that happens in the UK economy is now post brexit. Even if it could be proven beyond doubt that the drop in bank holiday footfall was not due to brexit, it would still be relevant to a UK economy thread, if only to prove that brexit was not having a bad impact.

I just think that people should debate what people actually say, not place words in people's mouths and then argue with them about these words that they haven't said.

I did go on to explain my belief that it could not be proven that the bank holiday footfall data could not be directly proven to be a result of brexit, hence I didn't try to say the two were linked. So, you made an assumption about me that was wrong; hence why it's better to only debate what people are actually posting.

And I'm not upset; it's not me that was wrong. 

Right now I am watching things closely. As long  as confidence remains, things will probably be better than predicted, at least until article 50 is triggered and the doo doo hits the fan big style.

What people should hope for is the consumer confidence to look better than the disastrous results last month. If it continues to fall, the markets will panic and it will become a self fulfilling prophecy.

Edited by scottish skier

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3 minutes ago, scottish skier said:

I did go on to explain my belief that it could not be proven that the bank holiday footfall data could not be directly proven to be a result of brexit, hence I didn't try to say the two were linked. So, you made an assumption about me that was wrong; hence why it's better to only debate what people are actually posting.

And I'm not upset; it's not me that was wrong.

Only after you were challenged though, which kind of makes the point really - if that was your view, and considering how relevant that view is to the discussion and the link you posted, I think the answer would be to share it at the time, and not just post a link and expect people to figure out what point you were trying to make. 

But anyway, if it makes you feel better SS, I'm sorry I was wrong about your intentions when posting the link.

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15 minutes ago, Paul said:

I think the answer would be to share it at the time, and not just post a link and expect people to figure out what point you were trying to make. 

But anyway, if it makes you feel better SS, I'm sorry I was wrong about your intentions when posting the link.

Given I could not conclude either way, I didn't, and just posted it as 'news' for folks to add to the evidence in front of them. The more that's added, the clearer the picture becomes.

It doesn't make me feel better as I didn't feel bad. However, thanks for the acknowledgement. I will endeavour in the future to make it clearer when I post an article neutrally / i.e. just think it might be important to discussions.

I should add that the problem brexiters have now is any bad news economically is going to be attributed to brexit, even if links are tenuous. It's because we are now post brexit, so UK economic performance responsibility had shifted from the pro-EU side to the brexiters entirely. Certainly how the public will see things and that's crucial to what happens next. Will make the brexiters very defensive over any negative news.

Edited by scottish skier

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9 minutes ago, scottish skier said:

I should add that the problem brexiters have now is any bad news economically is going to be attributed to brexit, even if links are tenuous. It's because we are now post brexit, so economic performance responsibility had shifted from the pro-EU side to the brexiters entirely.

Hmm, well I can't agree with that. Economic performance is down to everyone (metaphorically speaking). It's no good those firmly on the opposing side of the fence to where we've ended up washing their hands of it, or worse still, just continually talking down the economy, as that clearly helps nothing and no-one. We are where we are in terms of the Brexit vote now, albeit that we're far from settled in terms of how post-Brexit Britain / England / Scotland / Wales / Northern Ireland / Gibraltar will look, and we've all got to crack on with it for our own, our businesses, our employees, our families, etc's benefit. There's nothing to be gained by wallowing in misery, cutting off noses to spite faces, or absolving responsibility due to being on the wrong side of outcome of the vote.

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10 minutes ago, Paul said:

Hmm, well I can't agree with that. Economic performance is down to everyone (metaphorically speaking). It's no good those firmly on the opposing side of the fence to where we've ended up washing their hands of it, or worse still, just continually talking down the economy, as that clearly helps nothing and no-one. We are where we are in terms of the Brexit vote now, albeit that we're far from settled in terms of how post-Brexit Britain / England / Scotland / Wales / Northern Ireland / Gibraltar will look, and we've all got to crack on with it for our own, our businesses, our employees, our families, etc's benefit. There's nothing to be gained by wallowing in misery, cutting off noses to spite faces, or absolving responsibility due to being on the wrong side of outcome of the vote.

I agree, but that's what happens when you are 'in control'. When you are the 'opposition', you can attack all the time without responsibility. When you become the government, you are then on the defensive.

So, before, the anti-EU side could just attack, blaming the EU etc, saying things would be much better if we leave. Well, now they have won so they must now defend while the pro-EU side get to attack.

The rights and wrongs of this matter little; it's just what happens.

And note I'm talking about the debate in general rather than specifically on here. 

--

As for wallowing in misery... Well, you can't tell people how to feel. Brexit is terrible for some to the point of genuine fear, tears, deep worry for the future. People face being stripped of an identity/citizenship they've had from birth for example. My family is a European family so I know this feeling. As mike says, there is much more to this than the economy. However, the economy is intimately linked to confidence and confidence to how happy / sad / worried people are.

It is up to brexiters to give people confidence; it's on their shoulders now. They can't just demand people cheer up; they need to do things to actually cheer people up and give them confidence. Guaranteeing all Europeans in the UK permanent right to residency would be a start.

Edited by scottish skier

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17 minutes ago, scottish skier said:

As for wallowing in misery... Well, you can't tell people how to feel. Brexit is terrible for some to the point of genuine fear, tears, deep worry for the future. People face being stripped of an identity/citizenship they've had from birth for example. My family is a European family so I know this feeling. As mike says, there is much more to this than the economy. However, the economy is intimately linked to confidence and confidence to how happy / sad / worried people are.

This is a discussion regarding the economic side though. I certainly don't disagree with either your or Mike's view, but I'm commenting on the economic side of things. Maybe it'd be a plan to start a fresh thread, as while there's clearly a link, the two things are quite different and worthy of their own discussion?

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'PM will order a second referendum': Expert claims Britain will NEVER leave the EU because Brexit process is 'too complex' for ministers to see through

Professor Thom Brooks said: 'I do not think Article 50 will be invoked'

Told MailOnline ministers would ignore vote to avoid 'massive' task

He dismissed 'Brexit means Brexit' as 'gobbledygook is gobbledygook'

Former civil service chief Gus O'Donnell recently said UK would not leave

By Rory Tingle For Mailonline

Published: 09:39, 29 August 2016  | Updated: 12:18, 29 August 2016

Britain will never actually leave the EU because Boris Johnson and other leading Brexiteers did not realise how ‘massively complex’ the process would be, a leading expert has said.

Professor Thom Brooks warned Article 50 – the formal process of leaving the European Union – is unlikely to ever be invoked.

The head of Durham University Law School said Brexit-supporting ministers would decide unpicking nearly half a century of European law was too difficult and row back on their commitment to leaving.

And he dismissed Prime Minister Theresa May’s ‘Brexit means Brexit’ pledge as similar to saying 'gobbledygook is gobbledygook' as it did not necessarily mean exiting the EU.

Professor Brooks, who advised the Electoral Commission on the wording of the referendum question, told MailOnline: ‘I do not think Article 50 will be invoked.

‘The closer the government looks at what is actually involved in leaving then the less likely they are going to be jumping ship.

‘There is a 42 year evolving legal relationship that is not so easy to unpick. It is an absolutely massive task.’

The immigration expert, whose research has been quoted in the House of Lords, predicted Brexit ministers would row back on their commitment to Leave and call for a second referendum.

And he dismissed Prime Minister Theresa May’s ‘Brexit means Brexit’ pledge as similar to saying 'gobbledygook is gobbledygook' as it did not necessarily mean exiting the EU.

Professor Brooks, who advised the Electoral Commission on the wording of the referendum question, told MailOnline: ‘I do not think Article 50 will be invoked.

‘The closer the government looks at what is actually involved in leaving then the less likely they are going to be jumping ship.

‘There is a 42 year evolving legal relationship that is not so easy to unpick. It is an absolutely massive task.’

The immigration expert, whose research has been quoted in the House of Lords, predicted Brexit ministers would row back on their commitment to Leave and call for a second referendum.

This second referendum will either see Britain changing its mind on Brexit or voting for something other than a full withdrawal.’

 

Professor Brook's intervention comes after former cabinet secretary Gus O'Donnell said angered Eurosceptics by saying Britain could stay in a 'broader, more loosely aligned group'.

He told The Times that whatever happens the UK would have to keep some EU laws, prompting UKIP MP Dominic Carswell to accuse him of having a 'contempt of democracy'.

The lecturer's claims were firmly denied by both the Foreign Office and the Department for Exiting the European Union, which insisted Article 50 would be invoked.

A Foreign Office spokesman said: ‘The Prime Minister has been very clear on this issue. Brexit means Brexit.’

The Department for Exiting the European Union said: ‘I would refer you to the Prime Minister’s previous comments.

'Brexit means Brexit. We will be invoking Article 50.’

Professor Brook’s intervention comes after Iain Duncan Smith called on Article 50 to be triggered ‘as soon as possible’ to avoid a 'neverendum'.

Despite pressure from European leaders, Mrs May has insisted she will not look at starting the process – which begins two years of formal negotiations for an exit settlement  – until early next year.

Earlier this month, a Tory peer suggested the Lords could withhold support for invoking Article 50, despite 52 per cent of Britons backing Leave in the June 24 referendum.

Baroness Wheatcroft, who backed Remain, suggested there were dozens of peers who want to stop, delay or 'revisit' the result.

Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has also vowed to block Brexit alongside Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron.

Labour leadership candidate Owen Smith has pledged to call a second referendum on the issue.

 

 

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19 minutes ago, Paul said:

Hmm, well I can't agree with that. Economic performance is down to everyone (metaphorically speaking). It's no good those firmly on the opposing side of the fence to where we've ended up washing their hands of it, or worse still, just continually talking down the economy, as that clearly helps nothing and no-one. We are where we are in terms of the Brexit vote now, albeit that we're far from settled in terms of how post-Brexit Britain / England / Scotland / Wales / Northern Ireland / Gibraltar will look, and we've all got to crack on with it for our own, our businesses, our employees, our families, etc's benefit. There's nothing to be gained by wallowing in misery, cutting off noses to spite faces, or absolving responsibility due to being on the wrong side of outcome of the vote.

Surely it will be the reality of what is in our wallets/purses that speak of the economy rather than what people are discussing on a private section of a weather forum. You can be as upbeat as you like, if the reality is affecting your personal spending power it will bite.

It is somewhat reflective of the overall balance of the UK economy, so much importance is attached to retail spending and house prices.

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The poisoned dwarf Sarkozy now calling for the UK border to be moved out of Calais and back to Kent.  He's also gone into full populist mode with his backing for a French wide ban on the burkini. I fear the French elections are going to be a race to see which politician can deliver the most meat to the baying mob.

Hollande has no chance so it's going to be a case of the Republicains versus the Front Nationale, Marine Le Pen will likely get to the final round of voting but will get beaten by someone just slightly less horrid .

I really think May should delay triggering article 50 until after the French and German elections otherwise the UKs negotiating position is going to be used as a political football. 

 

Edited by nick sussex

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15 minutes ago, scottish skier said:

I agree, but that's what happens when you are 'in control'. When you are the 'opposition', you can attack all the time without responsibility. When you become the government, you are then on the defensive.

So, before, the anti-EU side could just attack, blaming the EU etc, saying things would be much better if we leave. Well, now they have won so they must now defend while the pro-EU side get to attack.

The rights and wrongs of this matter little; it's just what happens.

And note I'm talking about the debate in general rather than specifically on here. 

--

As for wallowing in misery... Well, you can't tell people how to feel. Brexit is terrible for some to the point of genuine fear, tears, deep worry for the future. People face being stripped of an identity/citizenship they've had from birth for example. My family is a European family so I know this feeling. As mike says, there is much more to this than the economy. However, the economy is intimately linked to confidence and confidence to how happy / sad / worried people are.

It is up to brexiters to give people confidence; it's on their shoulders now. They can't just demand people cheer up; they need to do things to actually cheer people up and give them confidence. Guaranteeing all Europeans in the UK permanent right to residency would be a start.

It is not and never has been up to Brexiters as you call them to give people confidence and it is in no way on their shoulders. Both those things are now down to government and I suspect after Weds brainstorming meeting at No10 you will hear a very different and much more cohesive message being decimated. May has made it perfectly clear that the UK will be leaving the EU and I suspect those in cabinet who continue to whinge and whine about the validity of her mandate will very quickly find themselves as ex cabinet members. 

I suspect Article 50 might well be triggered before the end of 2016 now, especially in light of the increased chatter from the Germans, because as far as the EU is concerned when they say jump the rest just ask how high.....thankfully that will no longer include us.

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3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The poisoned dwarf Sarkozy now calling for the UK border to be moved out of Calais and back to Kent.  He's also gone into full populist mode with his backing for a French wide ban on the burkini. I fear the French elections are going to be a race to see which politician can deliver the most meat to the baying mob.

Hollande has no chance so it's going to be a case of the Republicains versus the Front Nationale, Marine Le Pen will likely get to the final round of voting but will get beaten by someone just slightly less horrid .

I really think May should delay triggering article 50 until after the French and German elections otherwise the UKs negotiating position is going to be used as a political football. 

 

What is wrong exactly with moving the UK border back to Kent?

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11 minutes ago, coldcomfort said:

It is not and never has been up to Brexiters as you call them to give people confidence and it is in no way on their shoulders. Both those things are now down to government and I suspect after Weds brainstorming meeting at No10 you will hear a very different and much more cohesive message being decimated. May has made it perfectly clear that the UK will be leaving the EU and I suspect those in cabinet who continue to whinge and whine about the validity of her mandate will very quickly find themselves as ex cabinet members. 

I suspect Article 50 might well be triggered before the end of 2016 now, especially in light of the increased chatter from the Germans, because as far as the EU is concerned when they say jump the rest just ask how high.....thankfully that will no longer include us.

It patently isn't a case of whingeing and whining nor about the validity of the mandate. The government is duty bound to formulate a Brexit strategy that will have the least economic and social impact on the UK and which will form the basis of the forthcoming negotiations. The referendum result was a vote to leave, it wasn't a mandate to do so whatever the cost. 

Edited by knocker

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3 minutes ago, coldcomfort said:

What is wrong exactly with moving the UK border back to Kent?

Nothing the French have every right to do that and the current Treaty arrangement was bound to come under strain once the UK voted to leave the EU. I was more criticizing Sarkozy because he's running around France now jumping on any bandwagon that he thinks might get him some votes . 

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19 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

Surely it will be the reality of what is in our wallets/purses that speak of the economy rather than what people are discussing on a private section of a weather forum. You can be as upbeat as you like, if the reality is affecting your personal spending power it will bite.

It is somewhat reflective of the overall balance of the UK economy, so much importance is attached to retail spending and house prices.

I think, to be fair, it was pretty apparent that I wasn't suggesting that posts on this forum had anything to do with the workings or indeed confidence in the economy. 

When it comes to money in wallets, of course that'll be an over-riding factor, and since the vote that's not really changed. So what we're talking about at this point in time is confidence and sentiment, which as has already been discussed is something of a self-fulfilling prophecy - low confidence can / does affect spending (business and personal) down the line, which in turn then has an impact on jobs, livelihoods and money in wallets etc.

Time will tell how the dip in confidence around the vote lasts, and how much of an affect it has. But my point was that there's zilch to be gained by people (and by that I don't mean in here or other small discussions, I mean businesses, politicians, media etc), just talking down the economy on the basis of being peeved about the outcome of the brexit vote, as at this point in time there's nothing tangible we can glean in terms of how things will play out.

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6 minutes ago, Paul said:

This is a discussion regarding the economic side though. I certainly don't disagree with either your or Mike's view, but I'm commenting on the economic side of things. Maybe it'd be a plan to start a fresh thread, as while there's clearly a link, the two things are quite different and worthy of their own discussion?

I thought the two aspects were quite closely interlinked.

22 minutes ago, Paul said:

Hmm, well I can't agree with that. Economic performance is down to everyone (metaphorically speaking). It's no good those firmly on the opposing side of the fence to where we've ended up washing their hands of it, or worse still, just continually talking down the economy, as that clearly helps nothing and no-one. We are where we are in terms of the Brexit vote now, albeit that we're far from settled in terms of how post-Brexit Britain / England / Scotland / Wales / Northern Ireland / Gibraltar will look, and we've all got to crack on with it for our own, our businesses, our employees, our families, etc's benefit. There's nothing to be gained by wallowing in misery, cutting off noses to spite faces, or absolving responsibility due to being on the wrong side of outcome of the vote.

I wonder if you really realise how much many of us on the remain side were absolutely stunned by the result of the referendum which as far we were concerned has far reaching effects for the economy, the future of our country, the future of the EU and Europe and a potential threat to the balance of world power if that nice Mr Putin decides on Crimean type tactics in respect of the Baltic states for example.

First of all we were absolutely aghast at the outrageous tactics of the leave side during their campaign, which in my view was fundamentally flawed. We are appalled at the 'we won, just get on with remarks' from the brexiteers. 

We are not wallowing in misery, cutting off our noses to spite our faces or absolving responsibility but what we are fighting for is that, despite the 'flawed vote' for the UK to remain a member of the EU.

As SS says:

'As for wallowing in misery... Well, you can't tell people how to feel. Brexit is terrible for some to the point of genuine fear, tears, deep worry for the future. People face being stripped of an identity/citizenship they've had from birth for example. My family is a European family so I know this feeling. As mike says, there is much more to this than the economy. However, the economy is intimately linked to confidence and confidence to how happy / sad / worried people are.'

In this we are quite within our democratic rights and do not see any reason to roll over and acquiesce just because people from the leave side keep telling us that that is what we should do.

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18 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The poisoned dwarf Sarkozy now calling for the UK border to be moved out of Calais and back to Kent.  He's also gone into full populist mode with his backing for a French wide ban on the burkini. I fear the French elections are going to be a race to see which politician can deliver the most meat to the baying mob.

Hollande has no chance so it's going to be a case of the Republicains versus the Front Nationale, Marine Le Pen will likely get to the final round of voting but will get beaten by someone just slightly less horrid .

I really think May should delay triggering article 50 until after the French and German elections otherwise the UKs negotiating position is going to be used as a political football. 

 

Keep your fingers crossed Nick - I did hear that Alain Juppé may be throwing his hat into the ring - the French have already had previous experience of Sarkozy, as you say Hollande is a non runner and I suspect that Le Penn, although she may do well in the first round will fail in the second ,'comme d'habitude' for FN.

So if he does stand, Juppé could be a front runner and make a good president for a change - do you agree?

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36 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

Surely it will be the reality of what is in our wallets/purses that speak of the economy rather than what people are discussing on a private section of a weather forum. You can be as upbeat as you like, if the reality is affecting your personal spending power it will bite.

It is somewhat reflective of the overall balance of the UK economy, so much importance is attached to retail spending and house prices.

Quite.

 

Edited by knocker

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15 minutes ago, Paul said:

I think, to be fair, it was pretty apparent that I wasn't suggesting that posts on this forum had anything to do with the workings or indeed confidence in the economy. 

When it comes to money in wallets, of course that'll be an over-riding factor, and since the vote that's not really changed. So what we're talking about at this point in time is confidence and sentiment, which as has already been discussed is something of a self-fulfilling prophecy - low confidence can / does affect spending (business and personal) down the line, which in turn then has an impact on jobs, livelihoods and money in wallets etc.

Time will tell how the dip in confidence around the vote lasts, and how much of an affect it has. But my point was that there's zilch to be gained by people (and by that I don't mean in here or other small discussions, I mean business, politics, media etc), just doing down the economy on the basis of being peeved about the outcome of the brexit vote, as at this point in time there's nothing tangible we can glean in terms of how things will play out.

The truth is the whole post Brexit discussion has just an extension of the fear filled pre Brexit discussion, with all sorts of wild, unsubstantiated claims being made by those with very obvious agendas. Without question the one crystal clear fact in all of this is uncertainty does no one any favours and there has been an absolute boatload of that since Jun 24th, enough in fact to have caused a complete and utter economic meltdown, if you believed some on the pre vote hype. To this end I think we will start to see a very different approach from HM Govt in the coming days and weeks, strong leadership is required here, along with cool heads and some genuine self confidence that we can and will make this work. 

I think those involved in negotiating our Brexit accept the task ahead will be difficult enough with everyone pulling in the same direction, but if we continue to pull in opposite directions that task becomes impossible and everyone loses.

Edited by coldcomfort

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25 minutes ago, coldcomfort said:

It is not and never has been up to Brexiters as you call them to give people confidence and it is in no way on their shoulders. Both those things are now down to government and I suspect after Weds brainstorming meeting at No10 you will hear a very different and much more cohesive message being decimated. May has made it perfectly clear that the UK will be leaving the EU and I suspect those in cabinet who continue to whinge and whine about the validity of her mandate will very quickly find themselves as ex cabinet members. 

I suspect Article 50 might well be triggered before the end of 2016 now, especially in light of the increased chatter from the Germans, because as far as the EU is concerned when they say jump the rest just ask how high.....thankfully that will no longer include us.

So according to you CC, the leave campaign were making promises that they could not deliver - I'm not so sure about pro remainers becoming ex cabinet ministers - I suspect that somewhere down the road that is more likely to happen to the three stooges put in charge of the various factions of Brexit.

I expect the Wednesday cabinet meeting is more likely to be a damage limitation exercise as much as anything else.

And as for the timing of the triggering of article 50, if it ever happens, is down entirely to the UK - there is no way the EU or any of its individual nations can force that action until the UK is ready. 

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32 minutes ago, coldcomfort said:

What is wrong exactly with moving the UK border back to Kent?

You must be joking!

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21 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Nothing the French have every right to do that and the current Treaty arrangement was bound to come under strain once the UK voted to leave the EU. I was more criticizing Sarkozy because he's running around France now jumping on any bandwagon that he thinks might get him some votes . 

Well if Sarky thinks moving the border to Kent will mean the Jungle also relocates with it he will be sadly mistaken. If the border returns to Kent we will find it much easier to spot illegal immigrants arriving on our shores. As far as the law is concerned it is incumbent on all nations to ensure those that leave their borders have the required paperwork to enter the country they travel to, otherwise they will be immediately returned and a fine issued to the country from which they departed.  So whilst the french may have the right, they will probably realise quite quickly that exercising it will work against them.

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13 minutes ago, coldcomfort said:

As far as the law is concerned it is incumbent on all nations to ensure those that leave their borders have the required paperwork to enter the country they travel to

No it's not. 

Airlines might ask to see your visa before you board, but only because they can get in trouble with the country of origin for landing you there without one. 

Countries may place controls on who is coming in, but rarely on who is leaving. Well, not unless they're North Korea or something. I could get in a yacht tomorrow to sail to Morocco; I don't have to tell the British authorities I plan to do that.

If a migrant sneaks into France then jumps in a boat heading out of French waters, the French are not obliged to stop them. They're doing so at the moment because we're all EU members and we have a bi-lateral agreement with them.

Edited by scottish skier

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9 minutes ago, coldcomfort said:

The truth is the whole post Brexit discussion has just an extension of the fear filled pre Brexit discussion, with all sorts of wild, unsubstantiated claims being made by those with very obvious agendas. Without question the one crystal clear fact in all of this is uncertainty does no one any favours and there has been an absolute boatload of that since Jun 24th, enough in fact to have caused a complete and utter economic meltdown, if you believed some on the pre vote hype. To this end I think we will start to see a very different approach from HM Govt in the coming days and weeks, strong leadership is required here, along with cool heads and some genuine self confidence that we can and will make this work. 

I think those involved in negotiating our Brexit accept the task ahead will be difficult enough with everyone pulling in the same direction, but if we continue to pull in opposite directions that task becomes impossible and everyone loses.

The truth is the whole post Brexit discussion has just an extension of the fear filled pre Brexit discussion, with all sorts of wild, unsubstantiated claims being made by those with very obvious agendas.

There are good grounds for making these claims and time will tell whether or not they unsubstantiated though the claims currently being made by the brexiteers to the effect that people are queuing up with deals for the UK are designed to buoy up public confidence but in reality not worth anything until they are signed sealed and delivered.

As for our current situation we will see what will happen when the devaluation really kicks in - we have had a number of devaluations in my time and they have only ever acted to give temporary respite without addressing what must be an underlying problem(s). If your economy is efficiency and well run devaluations are not necessary. As it is with this current devaluation I can see the trade balance gap increasing, not decreasing once the foreign currencies in hedge funds run out.

I will point out Knocker's post here:

It patently isn't a case of whingeing and whining nor about the validity of the mandate. The government is duty bound to formulate a Brexit strategy that will have the least economic and social impact on the UK and which will form the basis of the forthcoming negotiations. The referendum result was a vote to leave, it wasn't a mandate to do so whatever the cost. 

I think the last part which has been highlighted is significant.

 

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