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UK & EU Economies post Brexit

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7 hours ago, alexisj9 said:

Yep, however I still think relying on Germany to get us what we want, is rather arrogant, they do not hold all the power. I may be proved wrong, and hope I am for the Economies sake, but I really can't see us getting what we want, just because Germany needs us.

No, there's 26 other states which wield a veto, including Spain who want Gibraltar in the EU or any deal could be vetoed.

http://chronicle.gi/2016/07/spain-could-veto-brexit-talks-margallo-says/

There's been some interesting spin on the story below in the UK press.

But once again we hear how there'll be no special concessions for the UK. If anything, the EU must be really tough to ensure other member states don't behave like petulant, spoiled brats demanding special treatment or they'll take their ball away.

Quote

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/europe-could-go-down-the-drain-after-brexit-a7213976.html

Germany warns UK ‘you can’t keep the nice things’ after Brexit

"Brexit is bad but it won't hurt us as much economically as some fear.... we need to make sure that we don't allow Britain to keep the nice things, so to speak, related to Europe while taking no responsibility," he added.

Mr Gabriel said negotiations would be "very difficult" and that Britain would not be able to have both full access to the single market and limits on the freedom of movement of workers.

 

Edited by scottish skier

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40 minutes ago, scottish skier said:

freedom of movement of workers.

The bold is something that people don't seem to get when complaining about people coming here for our benefits, people come here to work, when ever freedom of movement is mentioned, the of workers bit is always left out. 

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9 hours ago, skifreak said:

 

 

Scottish Home Rule was far from a Blair and Brown project - Blair had only total disdain for the 1998 Scotland Act, but knew he had no option. Labour had spent two parliamentary terms prior to the 97 election working with the Lib Dems and various civic bodies, local government, trade unions etc. in the Constitutional Convention - the basic blueprint for the Scotland Act of 1998 was pretty much in place in the early 1990s. Delivery of the convention's blueprint via a referendum was pretty much the top manifesto commitment of the Lib Dems and Labour in the 1992 and 1997 UK General Elections. Had Blair blocked the referendum or blocked the progress of the Scotland Bill, the Labour Party would have split asunder, and the SNP would almost certainly have won the 2001 General Election in Scotland, indeed had Labour jettisoned the Scottish Parliament post the 97 election, there might even have been enough Labour MPs willing to back the Lib Dems and SNP in withdrawing from Westminster to give the majority of Scottish MPs needed to annul the Treaty of Union.

SF..

Thanks, for the info... (I had forgotten the details)

Interesting then that Scotland received its 'freedoms' based upon an attempt by Labor to keep political control.

Deja-vous?

It will be strange if Scotland does become independent baaed upon 2 unintended consequence actions, but failed in its own attempt more recently?..

Law of unintended consequences again.. Some can be good, some can be bad.

MIA...

Edited by Midlands Ice Age

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25 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

The bold is something that people don't seem to get when complaining about people coming here for our benefits, people come here to work, when ever freedom of movement is mentioned, the of workers bit is always left out. 

That's because they then can't simultaneously complain that they're coming for benefits. The leave argument was based on lies and riddled with inconsistencies.

Even now, we had a poster state that German car manufacturers would suffer a 20% drop in sales, and used this to bring out the "they need us more" fantasy. They won't of course, prices will rise, but let's face it BMW and Merc sales are less price sensitive than Dacia! 

All the time, they skirt around the financial services passporting question, because quite simply, they have no answer. It's distraction politics, something Brexiteers have no peers in.

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Bank holiday sales have taken quite a hit.

Quote

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37212179

Bank holiday shopper footfall 'down 4%'

The number of people out shopping in the UK on Saturday and Sunday fell by 4.1% compared with last year's August bank holiday, retail researchers say.

Analysis firm Springboard had predicted a 6.5% increase in footfall at shopping centres, retail parks and high streets.

Springboard's Diane Wehrle told the BBC it was "quite a surprise to see the magnitude of drop", and said it could not be explained solely by bad weather.

 

Edited by scottish skier

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9 hours ago, kar999 said:

Many far east imports will be 15-20 % higher as a great deal of what we buy from the Far East is US$ denominated.

I used to work for a firm with imported Chinese castings that were even priced in Euros.

Expect to see all those shiny tech goods we import going up.

My biggest fear is the GDP, jobs and billions of taxes that our financial services sector generates. Loss of EU financial passporting is a very huge and real threat and would damage our economy immensely.

Kar...

Care to explain you mathematics on the dollar exchande rate?

Thanks, but my comment that the prices of Far East goods  will be about the same,  is correct. -   Whereas prices of goods from the EC will go up by 11% plus the exchange rate differences.

Do not believe all SS's figures. It is not 20%, it is actually just over 10% based upon an average of the first 6 months of this year and the current rate. As I explained in a previous post cherry picking can produce a number of 15- 20%. (by using figures for the lowest rate of 1.28 and the highest figure of 1.54 in the last year), but the average is much lower..

Do not forget that currently goods from China  have a non EU tariff attached, and that currently based upon the average dollar rate for the first 6 months (currently 1.3185 cf 1.45) is only 10%. All  goods have a tariff of 11% applied . If we have a deal with China it is likely to be neutral, if not a tariff of 4% will probably apply (under world trade rules)..

As regards passeporting. One of the insurance companies (Alliance?) and Wells Fargo are saying that it is not the issue that was at first thought. Wells Fargo completely dismissed it in their decision to move their European HQ's to London recently.  The insurance company said that they did not need staff in Europe in the modern age of electronics. I am not an expert, but the fact that companies have come out and said it is not a problem (reversing a previous statement), makes me wonder if it is an issue.

Do you know anything in detail about passporting?  If you do I will stand to be corrected. Otherwise I will believe it is still neutral (or only slightly negative) to our prospects .I understand the basics of it, but was it only used to get people in to set up the European companies in London?.. Now that they are here will it have any effect?.   The Americans seem happy enough that it will not affect them.

.Apparently the Treasury have been having a series of meetings with the heads of the Finance sector. According to media reports some say that passporting  may impact them and others say it will not. So I am sure that it will be included in any discussions to the extent that it warrants.

I suspect that it will not be the showstopper that many people would like to believe?

MIA

.

Edited by Midlands Ice Age

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14 hours ago, coldcomfort said:

No, unlike you, who choses to disbelieve everything that does not make the SNP out to be the best thing since sliced bread. 

I'm perfectly comfortable with where we are right now, we are leaving the EU and irrespective of what Turgid might claim we will be taking you with us imo....which is probably why it's you who is getting twitchy.

CC, I am struggling to make sense of this post for various reasons.

First of all I cannot understand why you should get the impression that I should think the SNP is the best thing since sliced bread - for myself, I have always been comfortable with Scotland as a part of the UK and would prefer them to remain so. Yet at the same time I recognise the unique culture they have which strangely enough differentiates from England, yet at the same time compliments the raison d'etre of the UK and for fairly long periods of history we have fitted in well and achieved much together, the differences enriching the UK as a whole.

Yet at the same time I can feel sympathy for their current plight. Unfortunately in England there does appear to be a certain arrogance which I suspect to be hangover from the days of empire.

For over two centuries now there appears to have been this attitude that London knows best, which at times has worked to our detriment.

Then it starts off with the people in the American Colonies claiming 'no taxation without representation', which to me sounds a pretty fair point of view, yet the British Crown was intransigent to this view. No doubt the Crown needed to taxation to bolster its squabbles with France and there would have been expenses involved with protecting the Colonies making the demand justified but at the same time the Colonies wished to take part in the decision making instead of being treated like a 'milche cow' with no say in the matter, in effect being treated like second rate British subjects.

Result: Rebellion and the roots of the USA were laid down - had the people been treated with more respect there was the possibility that the Colonies would have remained part of the British Empire and ultimately the Commonwealth, as Canada is today.

Ireland had been a possession of the English Crown since Norman times, used by a number of the English aristocracy developed the country into landed estates whilst the greater part of the indigenous people were reduced to serfdom, Irish farmers not being able to hold land in their own right but required to rent it off the English derived family in 'the big house'. The Reformation never took hold amongst the ordinary people in Ireland as it did in England, so we had religion dividing people as well as social injustice. Not unsurprisingly the ordinary people were unhappy and a movement for Home Rule developed and such claims for this made in the London parliament on several occasions only to be defeated by the establishment.

Result: Rebellion and the Irish Republic was formed - again had the people been treated with more respect there was the possibility that Ireland would have had independence but remained as a British Dominion.

There were many wars between Scotland and England with Scotland being forcibly taken and occupied in the first instance but a stage was reached were Scotland did gain autonomy and in order to establish financial support attempted to establish a 'colony' in Central America which failed bankrupting the nation. In order to survive the Scots were forced to come cap in hand to London and a treaty of unification was born.

Again the people were not treated well, there were the 'clearances' from the Highlands forcibly removing tenant farmers from what were becoming profitable sheep farming areas to the outer edges.

However the Scots did not rebel but developed into an integral part of the UK but that did not stop Maggie Thatcher from having her test run  of the doomed poll tax by trying it out in Scotland first, probably doing much towards souring the current relationship between Scotland and London. They were no doubt peeved by being in effect ruled by an English majority government at Westminster.

They have now devolved to an extent with some degree of 'home rule' but on being told that when a UK referendum where a small majority the vote, mostly in England is for leave, whilst in Scotland it is for remain with a somewhat bigger majority they are again peeved at the prospect of their future being taken out of their hands by what is mostly the English.

The same also applies to Northern Ireland.

Now, despite what the tabloids have said, the UK has not lost any substantial sovereignty through being a member of the European Union. It has the same democratic rights as any other nation within that union (indeed the EU has bent over backwards to allow the UK 'opt outs' on a number of different issues) and EU citizens have equal standing throughout, you cannot say that the EU is treating its individual states in the same high handed manner in which the UK has treated what it considers to be its subordinate states through history.

The object of the EU is to develop strength through co-operation, to allow democracy to flourish and to allow freedom of choice and self determination for all the people. To achieve this some bureaucracy is a necessary evil but it has not been understood that the UK has been an instigator in reducing this down towards the levels which are necessary and was well respected by the other members, well at least until this anti EU silliness reached its peak just of late.

So if you disregard what is obviously anti EU crap in the tabloid newspapers which go on about such silly items as bent bananas, why is there this clamour on the part of some to leave this organisation?

Is it because we still think we are superior to everybody else and that western oriental gentlemen still start at Calais? Or is that not being king of the castle in this organisation upsets our sensitive sensibilities? When there are so many different people in the world, does London still know best? It seems to me that from our cock ups of history we never did, we just thought we did and never really got around to treating other people as equal, wherein lies our Achilles heel.   

Although the EU is negotiating a trough in its current fortunes, part brought on by external events and part brought by the inertial thinking of the commission I simply can't understand why we should wish to leave without first doing our utmost to put right what we perceive to be in need of reform for what is really a leap into the unknown where nothing is guaranteed.

With effort and cooperation the EU will recover from what many of the leavers describe as a terminally ill organisation, climb out of the trough to reach the crests of the waves.

I still believe as do a great many others that our future should be with Europe and sincerely hope that the leavers, many of whom were genuinely misguided in the ref, do not take us out. And that is not just for myself but for the benefit of our country, the EU and its future generations.

It may be that some leavers are unsure whether such a leaving will come to pass, especially when considering how devious politicians can be and that ultimately they could consider that to leave will not be in the best interests of our country despite what the vote said.

To say the people have spoken and it will happen is somewhat naïve don't you think?

  

Edited by mike Meehan

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58 minutes ago, scottish skier said:

Bank holiday sales have taken quite a hit.

 

I'm thinking you've either not read beyond the headline, or perhaps the rest of the article didn't match what you were trying to portray there SS, as the expert opinion in there was that it was nothing untoward, and that August had been pretty strong already, with the expectation that the upcoming week would be fairly strong due to many schools going back a bit later than previously. 

Quote

Tom Nathan, general manager at Brent Cross shopping centre in north London, said he was not concerned as trading in July and August had been quite resilient.

"Some of the schools are going back a bit later this year, which could have been partly responsible, so I anticipate a busy week ahead as people shop for back to school items," he told the BBC. "It certainly looked very busy yesterday - the restaurants were rammed."

Mr Nathan also said that fluctuations in shopping patterns might depend on the weather.

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6 minutes ago, Paul said:

I'm thinking you've either not read beyond the headline, or perhaps the rest of the article didn't match what you were trying to portray there SS, as the expert opinion in there was that it was nothing untoward, and that August had been pretty strong already, with the expectation that the upcoming week would be fairly strong due to many schools going back a bit later than previously. 

I just reported what the BBC article said. I didn't add anything to it at all.

Edited by scottish skier

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Just now, scottish skier said:

I just reported what the BBC article said. I didn't add anything to it at all.

In which case, I'm wondering why you felt it was relevant to, or adding anything to this particular discussion?

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6 minutes ago, Paul said:

In which case, I'm wondering why you felt it was relevant to, or adding anything to this particular discussion?

Because this is a discussion on the UK economy, and the article is about the UK economy; retail being a major part of this. It's filed under 'business' by the BBC.

Nobody complained / suggested this issue was off topic when articles about July's good sales figures were posted.

Edited by scottish skier

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3 minutes ago, scottish skier said:

Because this is a discussion on the UK economy, and the article is about the UK economy; retail being a major part of this. It's filed under 'business' by the BBC.

Nobody complained when articles about July's good sales figures were posted.

I'm not complaining, but lets be frank, with your frequent use of terms like #Brecession, it's quite clear what your views are, regardless of whether you posted them with the link or not. So with that in mind, I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that was your reasoning for posting the link, and therefore challenge them in that context. 

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5 minutes ago, Paul said:

I'm not complaining, but lets be frank, with your frequent use of terms like #Brecession, it's quite clear what your views are, regardless of whether you posted them with the link or not. So with that in mind, I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that was your reasoning for posting the link, and therefore challenge them in that context. 

If there was evidence the fall was directly brexit related, I'd have put that forward. I didn't so there's nothing to challenge. 

Bank holiday retail sales were much lower than expected, and showed a big drop compared to last year. It's not obvious why and the usual suspect 'bad weather' doesn't seen to explain it. It may be a blip or may be due to the huge fall in consumer confidence we saw in July. There is normally a clear lag between falling confidence and falling sales. Only time will tell as July's figures were not bad, yet they are too soon to gauge the situation.

Edited by scottish skier

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Since this is primarily a weather forum; what was the weather like on the two BH weekends? I reckon it would be a major factor in whether consumers were in indoor malls or busy making use of fine conditions in other outdoor pursuits.

You'll only see real differences once schools are back and the main summer tourist season has finished. Autumn will likely give a better look at figures.

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28 minutes ago, Paul said:

I'm thinking you've either not read beyond the headline, or perhaps the rest of the article didn't match what you were trying to portray there SS, as the expert opinion in there was that it was nothing untoward, and that August had been pretty strong already, with the expectation that the upcoming week would be fairly strong due to many schools going back a bit later than previously. 

Bank holiday sales have taken quite a hit.

  Quote

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37212179

Bank holiday shopper footfall 'down 4%'

The number of people out shopping in the UK on Saturday and Sunday fell by 4.1% compared with last year's August bank holiday, retail researchers say.

Analysis firm Springboard had predicted a 6.5% increase in footfall at shopping centres, retail parks and high streets.

Springboard's Diane Wehrle told the BBC it was "quite a surprise to see the magnitude of drop", and said it could not be explained solely by bad weather.

 

I too think it's pretty obvious why SS posts this kind of stuff, but that aside I'm struggling with the logic anyway. Firstly the BH weekend weather has not been bad, in fact it's been pretty good, but more to the point I'd expect retail parks and more especially shopping centres to actually see increased sales during bad weather. I think the drop is probably down to decent weather getting most people out and about in the fresh air to enjoy the last BH of summer, but irrespective of the facts some will blame fears over Brexit (often without directly saying it however) regardless.  

 

 

 

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8 minutes ago, scottish skier said:

If there was evidence the fall was directly brexit related, I'd have put that forward. I didn't so there's nothing to challenge. 

Bank holiday retail sales were much lower than expected, and showed a big drop compared to last year. It's not obvious why and the usual suspect 'bad weather' doesn't seen to explain it. It may be a blip or may be due to the huge fall in consumer confidence we saw in July. There is normally a clear lag between falling confidence and falling sales. Only time will tell as July's figures were not bad, yet they are too soon to gauge the situation.

Footfall doesn't equal sales. And the bank holiday is still ongoing.

Bad weather / good weather isn't a linear thing when it comes to the retail environment. Different products react to weather in varied ways, not to mention the time of year factor too. Put it this way, if, on a bank holiday weekend the weather is nice, people are maybe more likely to go to beaches/events/tourist type locations, and so on.

There's no simple one size fits all rule with these sorts of things, so making any sort of conclusion about confidence, spending etc, based on some early 1 or 2 day footfall figures is a bit of a stretch.

 

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7 minutes ago, coldcomfort said:

Bank holiday sales have taken quite a hit.

  Quote

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37212179

Bank holiday shopper footfall 'down 4%'

The number of people out shopping in the UK on Saturday and Sunday fell by 4.1% compared with last year's August bank holiday, retail researchers say.

Analysis firm Springboard had predicted a 6.5% increase in footfall at shopping centres, retail parks and high streets.

Springboard's Diane Wehrle told the BBC it was "quite a surprise to see the magnitude of drop", and said it could not be explained solely by bad weather.

 

I too think it's pretty obvious why SS posts this kind of stuff, but that aside I'm struggling with the logic anyway. Firstly the BH weekend weather has not been bad, in fact it's been pretty good, but more to the point I'd expect retail parks and more especially shopping centres to actually see increased sales during bad weather. I think the drop is probably down to decent weather getting most people out and about in the fresh air to enjoy the last BH of summer, but irrespective of the facts some will blame fears over Brexit (often without directly saying it however) regardless.  

 

 

 

I agree, CC. for whatever reason this year's sales 'slump' is, I really can't see how it can have anything whatsoever to do with June's referendum result...:cc_confused:

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1 hour ago, mike Meehan said:

.There were many wars between Scotland and England with Scotland being forcibly taken and occupied in the first instance but a stage was reached were Scotland did gain autonomy and in order to establish financial support attempted to establish a 'colony' in Central America which failed bankrupting the nation. In order to survive the Scots were forced to come cap in hand to London and a treaty of unification was born.

 

I have to say that this phrase is stretching the truth of the matter a fair wee bit.

The Darien scheme was ahead of its time and around a 1/5th of all Scottish Capital was invested in it, however, that wealth was restricted to the landed gentry and mercantile middle classes. The vast majority of Scots were poor and had no money to invest let alone lose. English and Dutch investors were also interested in the scheme but were told they could not invest by the English elite with support from William of Orange.

Whilst the Darien colony was unlikely to survive it was not helped by the English Parliament passing Navigation Acts which restricted English colonies from trading with other than other English colonies or the homeland and therefore despite sharing the same monarch the Darien colony could not possibly survive.

The real nail in the coffin for Scotland's rich however was the English Parliament Alien Act of 1705 which made Scottish nationals Aliens in England and more importantly placed massive tariffs and restriction on Scottish imports into England. In effect, Westminster told Scotland to either accept political Union with England or face being crippled financially. Westminster also heavily bribed many of the few who could actually vote to support the Union.

There were riots on the streets of most of the large towns and cities against Union however "The parcel of rogues" took their English gold and voted accordginly.

Edited by mountain shadow

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19 minutes ago, Paul said:

so making any sort of conclusion about confidence, spending etc, based on some early 1 or 2 day footfall figures is a bit of a stretch.

I didn't make any conclusions nor inferences. I just posted a BBC article about the post brexit UK economy and for some reason you've got a bee in your bonnet about it. I'm not sure why.

Anyway in terms of the bigger picture, even leavers are predicting a significant downturn in the economy; the whole 'short term pain, long term gain' thing. So, I think it's fair to say we are all sitting around just waiting for the bad news to start trickling in, with no real disputes about this happening. It's just the scale of how bad it will be that's not agreed.

Edited by scottish skier

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1 hour ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Kar...

Care to explain you mathematics on the dollar exchande rate?

Thanks, but my comment that the prices of Far East goods  will be about the same,  is correct. -   Whereas prices of goods from the EC will go up by 11% plus the exchange rate differences.

Do not believe all SS's figures. It is not 20%, it is actually just over 10% based upon an average of the first 6 months of this year and the current rate. As I explained in a previous post cherry picking can produce a number of 15- 20%. (by using figures for the lowest rate of 1.28 and the highest figure of 1.54 in the last year), but the average is much lower..

Do not forget that currently goods from China  have a non EU tariff attached, and that currently based upon the average dollar rate for the first 6 months (currently 1.3185 cf 1.45) is only 10%. All  goods have a tariff of 11% applied . If we have a deal with China it is likely to be neutral, if not a tariff of 4% will probably apply (under world trade rules)..

As regards passeporting. One of the insurance companies (Alliance?) and Wells Fargo are saying that it is not the issue that was at first thought. Wells Fargo completely dismissed it in their decision to move their European HQ's to London recently.  The insurance company said that they did not need staff in Europe in the modern age of electronics. I am not an expert, but the fact that companies have come out and said it is not a problem (reversing a previous statement), makes me wonder if it is an issue.

Do you know anything in detail about passporting?  If you do I will stand to be corrected. Otherwise I will believe it is still neutral (or only slightly negative) to our prospects .I understand the basics of it, but was it only used to get people in to set up the European companies in London?.. Now that they are here will it have any effect?.   The Americans seem happy enough that it will not affect them.

.Apparently the Treasury have been having a series of meetings with the heads of the Finance sector. According to media reports some say that passporting  may impact them and others say it will not. So I am sure that it will be included in any discussions to the extent that it warrants.

I suspect that it will not be the showstopper that many people would like to believe?

MIA

.

The dollar exchange rate is broad band based on a range that we have already seen and forward FX rates. Plenty of banks, fund managers forecast the dollar going much further south.

I'll find plenty of heavyweight financial links reference financial sector concerns about moving/losing business when I've finished cutting the lawn. Sale of the LSE was a very early reported concern .

Google if can't wait.

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I expect these will come in handy for headline writers during the next few years.

Brenial  Denial by leavers that the decision to leave was a big mistake.

Brecarcrash Negotiations with the EU go badly.

Brecession Patented by SS.

Bremain Some leave voters realize the whole thing is a monumental disaster and change sides.

Breflation Inflation rockets as the pound collapses .

Bremorse Voter remorse as the polls show a big swing to stay in the EU.

Brevorce Scotland votes for independence and starts divorce proceedings.

 

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23 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I have to say that this phrase is stretching the truth of the matter a fair wee bit.

The Darien scheme was ahead of its time and around a 1/5th of all Scottish Capital was invested in it, however, that wealth was restricted to the landed gentry and mercantile middle classes. The vast majority of Scots were poor and had no money to invest let alone lose. English and Dutch investors were also interested in the scheme but were told they could not invest by the English elite with support from William of Orange.

Whilst the Darien colony was unlikely to survive it was not helped by the English Parliament passing Navigation Acts which restricted English colonies from trading with other than other English colonies or the homeland and therefore despite sharing the same monarch the Darien colony could not possibly survive.

The real nail in the coffin for Scotland's rich however was the English Parliament Alien Act of 1705 which made Scottish nationals Aliens in England and more importantly placed massive tariffs and restriction on Scottish imports into England. In effect, Westminster told Scotland to either accept political Union with England or face being crippled financially. Westminster also heavily bribed many of the few who could actually vote to support the Union.

There were riots on the streets of most of the large towns and cities against Union however "The parcel of rogues" took their English gold and voted accordginly.

I bow to your greater in depth knowledge of the subject MS and probably as a Sassenach guilty of trying to be too brief on the subject but was trying to indicate that as a whole us English have been less than fair at times having this superiority complex which in the long term did not always do us any good.

I apologise for that but my motives were well intentioned and hope I am forgiven :)

 

Edited by mike Meehan

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24 minutes ago, scottish skier said:

I didn't make any conclusions nor inferences. I just posted a BBC article about the post brexit UK economy and for some reason you've got a bee in your bonnet about it. I'm not sure why.

Anyway in terms of the bigger picture, even leavers are predicting a significant downturn in the economy; the whole 'short term pain, long term gain' thing. So, I think it's fair to say we are all sitting around just waiting for the bad news to start trickling in, with no real disputes about this happening. It's just the scale of how bad it will be that's not agreed.

A bee in my bonnet? I'm simply discussing a link you posted, not entirely sure what the problem is with me doing that.

I don't think may people would disagree with the thinking that Brexit will cause some pain, although I suppose the level of shorter term pain can also be controlled by the actions the BOE and the government have taken/will take. I'm quite sure without the speedy changeover from Cameron to May, and the subsequent moves by the BOE then business and consumer confidence may have stayed lower for instance.

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10 minutes ago, Paul said:

A bee in my bonnet? I'm simply discussing a link you posted with you, not entirely sure what the problem is with me doing that.

I don't think may people would disagree with the thinking that Brexit will cause some pain, although I suppose the level of shorter term pain can also be controlled by the actions the BOE and the government have taken/will take. I'm quite sure without the speedy changeover from Cameron to May, and the subsequent moves by the BOE then business and consumer confidence may have stayed lower for instance.

It was more you seeming to put words in my mouth. If I'd actually tried to claim the drop in bank holiday footfall was directly brexit related, you'd have a case to argue with me. But I didn't. I just posted what is currently the headline story of the business section on the BBC into a thread on the UK economy.

footfall.jpg

I thought it particularly relevant because there was so much discussion about how July's figure's were apparently a positive brexit sign. I trust you agree we can't conclude that as it's not clear, just as the new bank holiday footfall data is open to interpretation.

Edited by scottish skier

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8 minutes ago, Paul said:

A bee in my bonnet? I'm simply discussing a link you posted, not entirely sure what the problem is with me doing that.

I don't think may people would disagree with the thinking that Brexit will cause some pain, although I suppose the level of shorter term pain can also be controlled by the actions the BOE and the government have taken/will take. I'm quite sure without the speedy changeover from Cameron to May, and the subsequent moves by the BOE then business and consumer confidence may have stayed lower for instance.

Paul, your attitude towards Brexit appears somewhat ambivalent which is fully within your rights but at the same time there are those of us on both sides of the fence to whom this subject goes much deeper.

For myself I fully admit that none of us know now what the future will hold and you may be right in your second para but I have my forebodings.

Although the discussion is to a large extent in economic terms to myself and others like me but it also goes much deeper to involve such things as culture. 

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