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UK & EU Economies post Brexit

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3 hours ago, mike Meehan said:

You believe everything you read in the newspapers then?

Dreams not crushed - I suspect that TM is playing a canny game, playing two sides at once - she is only just back from holiday and there is a lot to go into and consider and I expect it will be sometime before she makes any definitive decisions, plus some court cases are due to be heard this autumn which may put a different complexion on the situation, there is the question of whether or not Scotland and/or Northern Ireland will make moves to come out of the Union, in fact there is a whole lot of things which could happen between now and next Spring which could upset the cattle cart and nothing is laid in stone yet and the result of the referendum is only one part of the picture, there are many more things to take into consideration, most importantly, what would really be in the best interests of our country's future?

If I were you I'd be inclined to wait patiently with the rest of us to see what happens, or are you getting just that little bit twitchy that things are not going as expected - did you really expect article 50 to be triggered by DC on 24.06.2016?

 

No, unlike you, who choses to disbelieve everything that does not make the SNP out to be the best thing since sliced bread. 

I'm perfectly comfortable with where we are right now, we are leaving the EU and irrespective of what Turgid might claim we will be taking you with us imo....which is probably why it's you who is getting twitchy.

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24 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

So from SS's  conspiracy theories to what I think is likely to happen.

You trust one of David Cameron's Remain team to head up brexit negotiations?

Right oh.

Might work out. Maybe. Like I said, I'd not put faith in a UK unionist to negotiate independence for Scotland. Maybe that's just me.

Edited by scottish skier

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MIA I think you're overplaying the strength of the UK negotiating  position especially given the differences in the importance of trade. If the UK doesn't secure a deal and just falls out of the EU then that hurts the UK much more than the EU.

Once Article 50 is triggered then the EU is in the driving seat , the article was never meant to be used because it loads the dice against the departing nation.

If the UK wants a good deal then it's going to have to pay for that, the sooner the UK government gets the public onside on this matter the better, the problem is that the Leave campaign placed a lot on the UK getting something for nothing when the reality is that the EU needs to be able to sell any deal to its own electorate . It's not just about the UK and what it wants .

 

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15 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

If you say so?? Otherwise, why not give it a rest?

Agh right - so when I made a perfectly valid point on Friday your response was to call me a troll, for no other reason than holding an opposing view to you, now I again make a perfectly valid point you tell me to give it a rest.....democracy in action eh? 

For the record we were told this earlier by ciel and you 'liked' it.  

Quote

Well 48% of voters were capable of exercising reasoned judgement on the information available.  I would add that had their been genuine interest or concern as to the consequences of brexit, there was a mountain of material available apart from the official campaign nonsense or tabloid newspapers.

Ergo the other 52% which included me and the family members you alluded too clearly were not capable of exercising reasoned judgement on the information available....so did you just like her post for the sake of it? Perish the thought eh? 

Edited by coldcomfort

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16 minutes ago, scottish skier said:

You trust one of David Cameron's Remain team to head up brexit negotiations?

Right oh.

Might work out. Maybe. Like I said, I'd not put faith in a UK unionist to negotiate independence for Scotland. Maybe that's just me.

I think it depends on what price you are willing to pay for brexit / Indy. If you want it so bad it hurts you're more vulnerable to being hoodwinked into a rotten deal....possibly, and a soured relationship would follow. A unionist / remainer would have the future relationship of the two parties in mind during negotiations - as long as they had been convinced that the union itself was finished.

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1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

If Leave voters care about the UK staying together then they need to compromise, given that Scottish voters were told stay in the UK and remain in the EU during the Indy ref and now find themselves being dragged out then I think many people especially Remainers can completely understand why this vote was the last straw.

Those 2 groups, Scots and remainers would of course agree - they voted how they wanted to, and both wanted the same result LOL

I don't however see the need for compromise. As I keep saying we all voted how we wanted to, not in a way that would suit somebody else, and at least the Scots have the 2nd option of leaving the union, if they really don't agree with the outcome of the EU ref.

It will not be my fault if the Scots vote to leave,  because they will also vote how they want in an Indyref2, no compromises asked of them. They get an in/out option and the majority will win.

The only reason that the majority who voted for Brexit are told that they have to compromise  is simply because the result wasn't what Remainers expected.

 

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I don't think anyone knows how important the Union is to Theresa May,  her initial comments made one think that she certainly didn't want the break up of the UK on her watch and as a legacy that would probably look worse than Cameron's.

Is she willing to gamble the Union on an EU deal that Scotland and Northern Ireland are against . 

I do wonder whether leavers have really thought through what it would mean if the UK broke up.

The rhetoric during the campaign of a Britain returning to some golden age would look rather bizarre because if anything is likely to diminish the standing and how people view the country it would be the break up of the UK.

Indeed there's an interesting thing here, Scotland has the power to put itself on the world stage, to come out from the shadows whilst at the same time diminishing it's bigger neighbour.

Scotlands standing in the world can only get greater , the rUKs less. Perhaps some leavers don't care and are happy to see the UK end, but it does seem strange that especially older people who one would have thought would be more wedded to the UK were so happy to vote out given the likely consequences.

 

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1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

MIA I think you're overplaying the strength of the UK negotiating  position especially given the differences in the importance of trade. If the UK doesn't secure a deal and just falls out of the EU then that hurts the UK much more than the EU.

Once Article 50 is triggered then the EU is in the driving seat , the article was never meant to be used because it loads the dice against the departing nation.

If the UK wants a good deal then it's going to have to pay for that, the sooner the UK government gets the public onside on this matter the better, the problem is that the Leave campaign placed a lot on the UK getting something for nothing when the reality is that the EU needs to be able to sell any deal to its own electorate . It's not just about the UK and what it wants .

 

It depends Nick..

The Germans will go into a near recession if we leave (and fairly quickly)  as their car industry would be hit by about 20%..

As I say it depends upon how much the EU wants us to stay.

If they do not offer us better terms,,   then I believe we should just leave.

It will not be as dramatic as you are making out.       Do I detect the start of Project Fear Phase 2?:D

80% of our GDP is generated internally or with non-european countries.. Only about 40% of our import/export  trade will be at risk (and this is reducing as our manufacturing economy dies in the EC). This will not just disappear overnight and will take at least a further 5 years to really make a difference. Our goods will actually be cheaper in Europe and any fall-off of trade will be slow.   BMW' and Audis and EU white goods will become 20% more expensive overnight though -   In my opinion no bad thing!  However goods from the FarEast will be cheaper or just about the same. Our goods will actually become cheaper than before the ref took place over there in Europe.

Industry is more driven by prices than political idealogy!      Despite what many on here would like to happen.

Meanwhile we will be able to increase our worldwide export trade, due to our 20-25% price reduction with the rest of the world .

As I say, we are not in a totally negative position from an economic point of view.

I can see an initial stall in any negotiations as one of our red lines will clearly be a control of our own borders. People on here forget that Theresa  May was the one saying it was a definite requirement about a year ago during the elections. She has repeated that opinion since. I think we will end up with an Australian style of control over the skills allowed into the UK..

As for disastrous for the UK... Why has 500 billion been 'invested' in the UK by world-wide companies,  (Including some in the EEA), if they thought we would stay in the EU?  No they invested in the UK companies and stocks on the assumption that we would be leaving the EU. Any poor  agreement for the UK would result in a lot of this money leaving the UK.

As I say , in order to make a success from where we now stand, we must stress the positives and not the negatives.

MIA

Edited by Midlands Ice Age

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MIA you seem to be suggesting that the UK could still remain in the EU. I just can't see that happening even if the EU made some big compromises on freedom of movement. 

Unfortunately the UKs biggest export is services not manufacturing and devaluation just means higher inflation. The UK simply doesn't produce enough goods that the rest of the world wants. In terms of percentage of goods to the EU that might have gone down but in terms of value has gone up. 

It shouldn't be an either or scenario, the UK cannot afford to burn it's bridges with the EU. The biggest problem for UK exports worldwide hasn't been the EU but successive governments with inept industrial policies, Germany has no problems exporting .

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2 hours ago, knocker said:

I see Theresa has called an emergency cabinet meeting for Weds. to discuss Brexit

%C3%9Altima_Cena_-_Juan_de_Juanes.jpg

The caption being "I couldn't care less about who did'nt have a desert, it's still £20.00 quid apiece " 

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56 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I don't think anyone knows how important the Union is to Theresa May,  her initial comments made one think that she certainly didn't want the break up of the UK on her watch and as a legacy that would probably look worse than Cameron's.

Is she willing to gamble the Union on an EU deal that Scotland and Northern Ireland are against . 

I do wonder whether leavers have really thought through what it would mean if the UK broke up.

The rhetoric during the campaign of a Britain returning to some golden age would look rather bizarre because if anything is likely to diminish the standing and how people view the country it would be the break up of the UK.

Indeed there's an interesting thing here, Scotland has the power to put itself on the world stage, to come out from the shadows whilst at the same time diminishing it's bigger neighbour.

Scotlands standing in the world can only get greater , the rUKs less. Perhaps some leavers don't care and are happy to see the UK end, but it does seem strange that especially older people who one would have thought would be more wedded to the UK were so happy to vote out given the likely consequences.

 

Northern Ireland, I am pretty certain. would vote to remain in the UK, if it held an iref.         In the same way as the Welsh would do.

It is only the Scots who think they would be stronger without the rest of the UK!

By voting to leave the UK (in a future Iref), Scotland will have its own chance to 'shine in the world', in exactly the same way as the people in England have voted to do.

The Scottish political position had nothing to do whatsoever with the way the English people voted (nor the Welsh, nor the N Irelanders)..

The SNP have tried to maneuver the situation to their own ends. If anyone is to blame it is the SNP, who should accept responsibility and if THEY decide to leave the UK then that is not the fault of Theresa May, but the 'fault' (if it can be regarded a fault) of Blair and Brown who set up the chance for Scotland to determine their own future. I am very worried that many people are trying to use England as a scapegoat, and to use it as a discussion item  for the EU debate.  You cannot blame Theresa May for what has happened prior to her taking on the challenge of negotiating the UK exit.   It should  not be a consideration in our discussions with the EU. It is a totally different discussion.

Scotland can just as easily re-enter the Eu, if it turns out to be the bright shining star you infer and  believe it will.

Most people in England want the UK to stay united.  It is the SNP themselves, (and they alone ) who want to leave the UK.

That is where the 'blame'  must lie, if a breakup of the UK occurs  by the SNP taking them out of the UK.

MIA

Edited by Midlands Ice Age

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17 minutes ago, 78/79 said:

The caption being "I couldn't care less about who did'nt have a desert, it's still £20.00 quid apiece " 

The problem is there is more than one Judas.

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5 minutes ago, knocker said:

The problem is there is more than one Judas.

You're probably right Knocker, most politicians could have that as their middle name. The main prerequisite for a successful politician is to be a first class liar.:D 

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58 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

MIA you seem to be suggesting that the UK could still remain in the EU. I just can't see that happening even if the EU made some big compromises on freedom of movement. 

Unfortunately the UKs biggest export is services not manufacturing and devaluation just means higher inflation. The UK simply doesn't produce enough goods that the rest of the world wants. In terms of percentage of goods to the EU that might have gone down but in terms of value has gone up. 

It shouldn't be an either or scenario, the UK cannot afford to burn it's bridges with the EU. The biggest problem for UK exports worldwide hasn't been the EU but successive governments with inept industrial policies, Germany has no problems exporting .

 

My  statement says that we will firstly meet a deadlock over immigration (red line). -  Unless the EU backs down from their current stance on migration we will not be staying in the EU.   It is from this starting point that economic debate can take place.

Surely exporting our services will be cheaper for the countries buying our services? Why should exporting our services (including finance) mean that it will cause inflation in this country? I agree that manufacturing industries where we have to buy in raw materials would more likely adversely affect inflation, in this country.           I am not sure why you think it will affect services?

Our manufacturing industries have been 'smashed' by a lot of things. Our services industry  is still growing strongly and we have a unique place in the world. That is why we need to get out of manufacturing (for exports), and into areas where we are competitive.

MIA 

 

 

Edited by Midlands Ice Age

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24 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

 

My  statement says that we will firstly meet a deadlock over immigration (red line). -  Unless the EU backs down from their current stance on migration we will not be staying in the EU.   It is from this starting point that economic debate can take place.

Surely exporting our services will be cheaper for the countries buying our services? Why should exporting our services (including finance) mean that it will cause inflation in this country? I agree that manufacturing industries where we have to buy in raw materials would more likely adversely affect inflation, in this country.           I am not sure why you think it will affect services?

Our manufacturing industries have been 'smashed' by a lot of things. Our services industry  is still growing strongly and we have a unique place in the world. That is why we need to get out of manufacturing (for exports), and into areas where we are competitive.

MIA 

 

 

Still simplistic answers to complicated questions I see & still banging on about data that is freely available & published regularly.

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1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

MIA you seem to be suggesting that the UK could still remain in the EU. I just can't see that happening even if the EU made some big compromises on freedom of movement. 

Unfortunately the UKs biggest export is services not manufacturing and devaluation just means higher inflation. The UK simply doesn't produce enough goods that the rest of the world wants. In terms of percentage of goods to the EU that might have gone down but in terms of value has gone up. 

It shouldn't be an either or scenario, the UK cannot afford to burn it's bridges with the EU. The biggest problem for UK exports worldwide hasn't been the EU but successive governments with inept industrial policies, Germany has no problems exporting .

Agreed, but why? Perhaps the reason lies in the example of a local flooring firm who set up with the intention of supplying stone tiling to the UK and European market. In the end they were simply forced to give in, based on the enormous costs involved in satisfying the red tape emanating out of Brussels, which was 90% greater than that that came from Westminster. You are clearly an intelligent guy Nick, so quite why you continue to deny the EU offers up just as many problems as solutions is a mystery to me.  Is Mike winning you over with his claims of European utopia? 

Edited by coldcomfort

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1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

I don't think anyone knows how important the Union is to Theresa May,  her initial comments made one think that she certainly didn't want the break up of the UK on her watch and as a legacy that would probably look worse than Cameron's.

Is she willing to gamble the Union on an EU deal that Scotland and Northern Ireland are against . 

I do wonder whether leavers have really thought through what it would mean if the UK broke up.

The rhetoric during the campaign of a Britain returning to some golden age would look rather bizarre because if anything is likely to diminish the standing and how people view the country it would be the break up of the UK.

Indeed there's an interesting thing here, Scotland has the power to put itself on the world stage, to come out from the shadows whilst at the same time diminishing it's bigger neighbour.

Scotlands standing in the world can only get greater , the rUKs less. Perhaps some leavers don't care and are happy to see the UK end, but it does seem strange that especially older people who one would have thought would be more wedded to the UK were so happy to vote out given the likely consequences.

 

I care about the Union Nick, but what exactly does Scotland have, as you say, "to put itself on the world stage"

No disrespect here, just a question.

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let's keep the name calling/abusive comments etc off this forum please or else the offenders will quickly find that their ability to post disappears....thanks

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21 hours ago, mike Meehan said:

Wow, that anti EU propaganda has really taken effect - that post could be almost believable except that it isn't. :D

 

The problem is that although you may see the EU as uniting nations, it has in fact split many. The failure to listen to the ordinary people of all EU member states is leading to some extreme nationalism and splits within those states themselves. Far too much time is spent by remainers blaming the delivery men, like Farage and Trump, and the media rather than actually reading the letter.

There is a very powerful message from millions and millions of ordinary people, who reject the current model of federalism. The idea that some council or committee somewhere knows better than the average person, and laws should be simply delivered to them as a medicine they must take for their own good to make them good citizens, is not being accepted.

I met 2 Bulgarians yesterday, both say that we are better off out of the EU, and that Germany is destroying their country. I met a delivery driver last week from Poland, lives in his car weekdays and goes back home at the weekend.

The great thing about ordinary folk is they live in the real world and see what impact some of these things are having on them and on their children. What makes me angry is the nerve of those remainers or federalists, simply trying to make every excuse in the book to ignore the subject, discredit those who deliver the message, blame the media etc etc. Just maybe the model is flawed and the voice is simply getting ever greater.

The UK was far more united before joining the EU then it is now, and that follows 40 years of ever greater rule and influence from those who don't give a monkeys about our country or our people.       

 

 

   

 

      

 

        

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4 hours ago, knocker said:

I see Theresa has called an emergency cabinet meeting for Weds. to discuss Brexit

%C3%9Altima_Cena_-_Juan_de_Juanes.jpg

About time too.

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3 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

 

80% of our GDP is generated internally or with non-european countries.. Only about 40% of our import/export  trade will be at risk

However goods from the FarEast will be cheaper or just about the same. Our goods will actually become cheaper than before the ref took place over there in Europe.

Many far east imports will be 15-20 % higher as a great deal of what we buy from the Far East is US$ denominated.

I used to work for a firm with imported Chinese castings that were even priced in Euros.

Expect to see all those shiny tech goods we import going up.

My biggest fear is the GDP, jobs and billions of taxes that our financial services sector generates. Loss of EU financial passporting is a very huge and real threat and would damage our economy immensely.

Edited by kar999

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but the 'fault' (if it can be regarded a fault) of Blair and Brown who set up the chance for Scotland to determine their own future.

Scottish Home Rule was far from a Blair and Brown project - Blair had only total disdain for the 1998 Scotland Act, but knew he had no option. Labour had spent two parliamentary terms prior to the 97 election working with the Lib Dems and various civic bodies, local government, trade unions etc. in the Constitutional Convention - the basic blueprint for the Scotland Act of 1998 was pretty much in place in the early 1990s. Delivery of the convention's blueprint via a referendum was pretty much the top manifesto commitment of the Lib Dems and Labour in the 1992 and 1997 UK General Elections. Had Blair blocked the referendum or blocked the progress of the Scotland Bill, the Labour Party would have split asunder, and the SNP would almost certainly have won the 2001 General Election in Scotland, indeed had Labour jettisoned the Scottish Parliament post the 97 election, there might even have been enough Labour MPs willing to back the Lib Dems and SNP in withdrawing from Westminster to give the majority of Scottish MPs needed to annul the Treaty of Union.

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1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

.

The only thing the recent Westminster GERS figures proved was that Scotland is not reliant on oil. How come Norway does so well?

Norway had the good sense to set aside an oil fund of 4% when the going was good. Unlike the UK where successive UK governments both Tory and Labour pished it all up the wall.

I find the Norway/EU relationship interesting.. from the Guardian.

The Norwegians have voted against EU membership in two referendums and current opposition to Europe sits at around 75%. The political dividing lines on Europe would also confound Britain's euro-sceptics. In Norway, it is the right who are pro-Europe.

The ruling coalition of Labour, Socialists and Centrists has been in power for seven years and has shown no desire to alter the status quo. "They might grumble about agreeing to so much Brussels legislation with no representation, but they know what side their bread is buttered on. They get access to the big EU markets and they don't want to upset the equilibrium of the EEA agreements by doing something stupid like using their veto,"

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5 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Thanks  Dave..

After just reading thru  the last pages of total kibosh and conspiracy, I finally found a post worthy of this forum worth considering,

Yes the referendum was taken in too much of a hurry, this was thought to have been for 2 reasons -

1)  DC believed he would catch the Brexiters 'on the hop'

2) It  suited the EU to have the UK 'onboard' as early as possible.

Why? This was because they knew that their ideas of more federalism,  and the the set up of their own army, (this was proved by the documents scheduled for June 27th, which people in the US published on the web), would not be challenged if the UK was on board. That has now been put onto the back boiler. It was scheduled for discussions to start the monday after the referendum.

The other reason was the elections in Germany and France... Merkel and Hollande did not want it to interfere with their march back into power.

We on the other hand had 4 years before anything meaningful could have interfered.  So we had no reason to rush into it - As you point out.

DC obviously thought he had enough in his discussions to make it stick.

Maybe he did, but to not publish a single fact, about what the economic effect on the UK of the  future european problems would be on the UK (when he had the total treasury team working on it), was his undoing... His refusal to allow access for the Brexiters was a fatal loss.  as was the campaign of personal insults to the Brexiters , this had a huge affect on the general public. It was after this event that the polls suddenly started to move in the direction of Brexit. His insistence that the data was not shared with the BRexiters is the reason why we are now so hamstrung.

The real kick off for Brexit will start this week. Looking back, after the shock of the result, it was always  going to be the UK start date for the Brexit work.. May has asked the 3 Brexit ministers responsible for their plans, and has set a meeting for wednesday.

Other ministers will be asked for their opinions. I do not expect that we will see anything of these discussions for a couple of months, whilst the Treasury ' turns the wheels'..

I do not know which model (if any) will be chosen for the negotiations. I think that a series of red lines will be drawn and if the EU refuse to accept them, then we will threaten to  leave.altogether. It has already been published that none of the models (Norwegian, Swiss, Canadian or ,Icelandic) models in existence  today  will be acceptable to the UK government.

So I guess where we end up will depend a lot on the reaction of the EU to the plans we put forward.

If they play 'hardball ' then I can actually see a complete withdrawal being put forward and no agreement being reached.

It really is in the hands of the EU. If they want to keep us in, then they will have to offer us a lot more than was offered to DC.

The cards are  not all in the EU hands. German industry will be hit hard if we exit. It will be a powerful antidote to many of the more extreme views of what they  (and many on here) will be able to force the UK to do.

Any economic  agreement reached will I suspect be a total new one for the UK.

The stronger the UK economy is now the more beneficial will be the final outcome to the UK after the discussions. Isn't that what we all want on here?

So from SS's  conspiracy theories to what I think is likely to happen.

Does anyone notice a difference?

MIA

Yep, however I still think relying on Germany to get us what we want, is rather arrogant, they do not hold all the power. I may be proved wrong, and hope I am for the Economies sake, but I really can't see us getting what we want, just because Germany needs us.

Edited by alexisj9

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9 hours ago, coldcomfort said:

Agreed, but why? Perhaps the reason lies in the example of a local flooring firm who set up with the intention of supplying stone tiling to the UK and European market. In the end they were simply forced to give in, based on the enormous costs involved in satisfying the red tape emanating out of Brussels, which was 90% greater than that that came from Westminster. You are clearly an intelligent guy Nick, so quite why you continue to deny the EU offers up just as many problems as solutions is a mystery to me.  Is Mike winning you over with his claims of European utopia? 

Good Morning CC,

I find your example of a local flooring firm an interesting one. Earlier yesterday I requested details of how EU red tape impacted on our firms. Could you please expand your example by giving details of the additional 90% red tape that caused the company's demise as it will certainly assist us in making a more informed judgement of how the EU affects us.

Many thanks

Kind Regards

Dave

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