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UK & EU Economies post Brexit

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2 hours ago, coldcomfort said:

Sounds like that is rather unlikely to happen, but who am I to crush your dreams....:D http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/26/theresa-may-will-trigger-brexit-negotiations-without-commons-vot/

You believe everything you read in the newspapers then?

Dreams not crushed - I suspect that TM is playing a canny game, playing two sides at once - she is only just back from holiday and there is a lot to go into and consider and I expect it will be sometime before she makes any definitive decisions, plus some court cases are due to be heard this autumn which may put a different complexion on the situation, there is the question of whether or not Scotland and/or Northern Ireland will make moves to come out of the Union, in fact there is a whole lot of things which could happen between now and next Spring which could upset the cattle cart and nothing is laid in stone yet and the result of the referendum is only one part of the picture, there are many more things to take into consideration, most importantly, what would really be in the best interests of our country's future?

If I were you I'd be inclined to wait patiently with the rest of us to see what happens, or are you getting just that little bit twitchy that things are not going as expected - did you really expect article 50 to be triggered by DC on 24.06.2016?

 

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27 minutes ago, coldcomfort said:

 So I'm now more than happy to let the Brexit negotiators formulate a plan on my behalf, but the one thing I want to see at the centre of it is an end to free, unfettered movement of people from the EU, with some sort of points based system introduced to replace it. 

A strong majority of people either like freedom of movement or are willing to accept it as part of the new UK-EU deal according to polling. 

Given the EU won't back down over it in terms of free access to the EU market, it's highly unlikely the UK government will end freedom of movement. Not when there's no mandate for that specifically and the public is ok with it.

The referendum was about the EU, not leaving the EEA; the latter would have meant no freedom of movement. If it had been about leaving the EEA, that would have been on the ballot. Dave may have been arrogant, but he wasn't that stupid.

This is why I'm puzzled by leavers being so against a second referendum on whether the deal is acceptable. I mean what if the deal keeps freedom of movement and say accepts loads of refugees? Leavers don't want a say on that?

Edited by scottish skier

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2 hours ago, coldcomfort said:

Again, who is to blame for that? 

Farage and that lot who were controlling the leave campaign though distributing lies and deceit wholesale, cynically manipulating the masses into voting for them.

As much as you try to deny it the referendum is on dodgy ground and in my view insane to go forward on the result of that.

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25 minutes ago, coldcomfort said:

Calm down dear! What do you want me to do, I'm not in a position to influence anything, but thankfully I did take the one and only chance to do so when offered on Jun 23rd....as did 17 million others. So I'm now more than happy to let the Brexit negotiators formulate a plan on my behalf, but the one thing I want to see at the centre of it is an end to free, unfettered movement of people from the EU, with some sort of points based system introduced to replace it. Beyond that I'm happy to consider all options, of which I'm sure there will be many.  

There is an article in this weeks Economist:

Raising the drawbridge

Hopes of a cost-free cut in European Union migration are illusory

Obviously I cannot post the article so a couple of snippets

Quote

Next is the question of what sort of controls to have for new arrivals. Most Brexiteers favour an “Australian” points system similar to that applied to non-EU migrants, which lets in only the skilled and educated. Yet Australia is no longer satisfied with the way its points system works.

According to the Social Market Foundation, another think-tank, only 12% of EU migrants would qualify under the current rules for non-EU migrants. But slashing the number of unskilledcould be costly. The food-processing, farming and hospitality industries rely on low-cost labour from eastern Europe. Cutting it off would create labour shortages that would force firms to adapt their business models: more automation, higher wages or just closing down. Employers may also demand a scheme to admit temporary low-skilled workers.

And

Quote

The supposed economic gains from cutting EU migration are also doubtful. Brexiteers have argued that migrants push down wages, increase pressure on health and education services, take jobs from Britons and make it harder for young people to afford housing. Yet researchers at the Resolution Foundation, another think-tank, dismiss most of these claims.

They argue that there may have been a small downward impact on wages in some industries, but it is dwarfed by the impact of recession. Far from stealing jobs, EU migrants take ones that natives spurn; Britain’s employment rate is at a record high. Since they tend to be young, employed and taxpaying, migrants are net contributors to the state. For that reason they should ease, not raise, pressure on public services and housing—though there is a case for a “migrant impact fund” to channel their taxes towards more local public spending.

Add to that the administrative burden on any new policies would be huge.

In short post Brexit curbs on EU migration would inflict untold damage to the UK economy.

The article

http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21705870-hopes-cost-free-cut-european-union-migration-are-illusory-raising-drawbridge

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3 minutes ago, mike Meehan said:

Farage and that lot who were controlling the leave campaign though distributing lies and deceit wholesale, cynically manipulating the masses into voting for them.

As much as you try to deny it the referendum is on dodgy ground and in my view insane to go forward on the result of that.

Couldn't agree more, Mike...Everything that emanated from the Leave campaign was lies...Lies, lies and more lies. In a way, it's similar to footballers diving in the box. How can you claim a 'righteous' victory when you know full-well that you've cheated?

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2 hours ago, coldcomfort said:

Incorrect yet again....It was Cameron who created this in an attempt to unify his party, but since he has chosen to take the cowards way out it is now down to his predecessor to clear up the mess, which means honouring the majority vote of the electorate and leaving the EU. 

Apart from Cameron creating the mess as a ploy by calling a referendum to unify his party it brings in the question of whether it was legal to call for such a referendum in the place  - referendums are supposed to be for settling questions of importance to the general public and not for settling squabbles within political parties.

If the referendum was not legal in the first place it follows that any result from it will also be illegal, therefore the question of honouring the majority vote will not arise, so we will all be back to square one.  

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And why Leave are happy to have a Remainer as PM is beyond me.

I imagine the first thing May said to Merkel was 'Don't worry, I'm in charge of stopping Brexit. The whole 'Brexit means Brexit' thing is a ruse. Please play along. We need to negotiate a deal that is just totally unacceptable. With that, we can reverse brexit'.

It's like me trusting Ruth Davidson to lead Scottish indy negotiations.

Are leavers not a bit suspicious that someone from Dave's central cabinet sat quietly through the campaign, only to save the day when the worst happened? Do people not think May was always lined up as PM as a back up plan should leave win? Hell, she was crowned without even a leadership competition; that screams 'she was Remain's back up plan'.

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2 hours ago, coldcomfort said:

So are you suggesting that all 48% who voted Remain did so because they exercised reasoned judgement on the information available?

Well yes, we were still a member of the EU and are still yet - Cameron cames back from his European tour with proposals ready to make into law which would have ameliorated the EU immigration situation to an extent.

We had already been with the EU for some 40 years, we knew the benefits of being in the EU, we knew what it was trying to achieve and its raison d'etre, we knew of its current problems, so I think you could say that we had a pretty fair idea of what we were voting for, probably all 48.1% of us - in other words we voted with our eyes wide open.

It was really the leavers who were told so many lies and given so many promises which could not be kept mixed in with a bit of 'we will make Britain great again', scaring people by ramping up the immigration question and, oh yes, 'we agree you have been treated badly over the years, this is your chance to have a pop at the establishment in Whitehall' that many who did leave were absolutely confused. many believed the lies and the false promises, many were scared silly by the prospects of hordes of Turks due to come over and settle here, many were scared by the sex attacks on the continent expecting them here the next week, many believed that the EU ruled us with a rod or iron, some really believed Messrs Gove, Johnson and Farage to be nice people, they had the patter and were able to charm the pants off them, and many succumbed to the nostalgia of yesteryear.  

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28 minutes ago, mike Meehan said:

Apart from Cameron creating the mess as a ploy by calling a referendum to unify his party it brings in the question of whether it was legal to call for such a referendum in the place  - referendums are supposed to be for settling questions of importance to the general public and not for settling squabbles within political parties.

If the referendum was not legal in the first place it follows that any result from it will also be illegal, therefore the question of honouring the majority vote will not arise, so we will all be back to square one.  

The calling of the referendum was never going to be illegal. It had been in labour and tory manifestos for years in some guise or other although Blair/Brown never pursued it. The question in the referendum was even changed after recommendations from the electoral commission.

The only issue of legality is that the referendum is deemed advisory and not legally binding. 

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And now would be the time to dispel the nonsense (a straw-man hypothesis put-forward by Brexiteers) that all those who support a Brexit are de facto racists...What a pile of cack: many in my own family voted 'leave', and they are not racists!

They didn't, not one of them, proudly stand in front of a digitally remastered Nazi propaganda poster and grin like a Cheshire cat...That was, unless I'm mistaken, His Holiness St Nigel of Thanet??

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I'm not sure why Theresa May is determined to trigger Article 50 by Royal perogative when she can get some cover by sharing the responsibility with the Commons.

I don't see MPs voting against that but can see a host of problems as the negotiations with the EU are played out in the full glare of the media .

Any sign that a future deal won't include full access to the single market will likely see mayhem breaking out in the Commons with some pro EU Tories threatening a rebellion and the markets giving their verdict with a big thumbs down.

As much as the political carnage played out during July is unlikely to be replicated I can still see lots of drama over the next year.

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V true Pete. Many people voted remain and leave for all sorts of reasons outside the stereotypical type casts that now fill the media. Some very stupid people voted one way or the other for very clever reasons and some very clever people voted for some really stupid reasons...my favourite being the upset SNP activist who voted leave because he didn't like Cameron's austerity. (That was on Radio 4 Any Questions on June 25th)

Edited by kar999

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It seems that the EU trade options that include freedom of movement, have already been put aside, when Theresa May  said she wanted a Brexit deal that suited the UK and not an off the shelf option.

"We had a very clear message from the British people in the Brexit vote that they want us to bring in some control on free movement, they don't want free movement rules for movement of people from the European Union member states into the UK to operate as they have done in the past. And we will deliver on that.

........ EU citizens living in the UK I want to be able to guarantee their rights in the UK. I expect to be able to do that, I intend to be able to do that.

The only circumstances in which that would not be possible would be if the rights of British citizens living in other EU member states were not guaranteed. But I hope that this is an issue that we can address early on.

– Theresa May

http://www.itv.com/news/2016-07-27/may-we-will-deliver-controls-on-freedom-of-movement/

 

 

 

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I don't recall any vote on freedom of movement, only on EU membership.

I think those who want an end to freedom of movement need to start a party with this aim and look to push for a referendum on it.

There's no mandate for ending it right now.

Edited by scottish skier

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14 minutes ago, kar999 said:

V true Pete. Many people voted remain and leave for all sorts of reasons outside the stereotypical type casts that now fill the media. Some very stupid people voted one way or the other for very clever reasons and some very clever people voted for some really stupid reasons...my favourite being the upset SNP activist who voted leave because he didn't like Cameron's austerity. (That was on Radio 4 Any Questions on June 25th)

I heard one person say Cameron only imposed austerity because the EU told him to. Then used Greece as an example.

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10 minutes ago, interested & confused said:

It seems that the EU trade options that include freedom of movement, have already been put aside, when Theresa May  said she wanted a Brexit deal that suited the UK and not an off the shelf option.

"We had a very clear message from the British people in the Brexit vote that they want us to bring in some control on free movement, they don't want free movement rules for movement of people from the European Union member states into the UK to operate as they have done in the past. And we will deliver on that.

........ EU citizens living in the UK I want to be able to guarantee their rights in the UK. I expect to be able to do that, I intend to be able to do that.

The only circumstances in which that would not be possible would be if the rights of British citizens living in other EU member states were not guaranteed. But I hope that this is an issue that we can address early on.

– Theresa May

http://www.itv.com/news/2016-07-27/may-we-will-deliver-controls-on-freedom-of-movement/

 

 

 

Why on earth would the UK government want to get landed with an influx of expat pensioners putting a further burden on the NHS? It suits the UK to keep older expats in the rest of the EU whilst the Treasury coffers get tax revenues from the younger EU migrants.  The vague language being used by the government can mean lots of different outcomes re freedom of movement . And the referendum was a simple remain or leave vote, the government can honour the Brexit vote and have a Norway style deal, Leavers might moan but the UK would still be leaving the EU so thats still Brexit.

At this point the only thing I can see having any hope of keeping the UK intact is the Norway option with some minor window dressing on freedom of movement. If May really believes in the Union then she needs to find a compromise which is acceptable to Scotland and Northern Ireland .

If Leave voters care about the UK staying together then they need to compromise, given that Scottish voters were told stay in the UK and remain in the EU during the Indy ref and now find themselves being dragged out then I think many people especially Remainers can completely understand why this vote was the last straw.

 

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1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

Any sign that a future deal won't include full access to the single market will likely see mayhem breaking out in the Commons with some pro EU Tories threatening a rebellion and the markets giving their verdict with a big thumbs down.

As much as the political carnage played out during July is unlikely to be replicated I can still see lots of drama over the next year.

Yes, everyone's looking at the mess Labour are in and the potential split coming there.

They are overlooking the pressure cooker primed for explosion that is the Tory party.

Could be a three way split here; the Remainers, the EEAers and anti-immigrant isolationists.

When it comes to the EU, leading the Tories is like herding cats. The Brexit vote has made things worse here, not better.

It almost blew up in the leadership election, but cooler heads managed to get control and put May in place as planned for this outcome.

However, plenty of people lined up with knives for May the moment Brexit goes wrong in any way; that or not what they demand for brexit.

The UK is disintegrating politically as it enters the last days of Rome stage. The Tories are just keeping a better lid on their problems for now, but it won't last.

Edited by scottish skier

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1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

 

As much as the political carnage played out during July is unlikely to be replicated I can still see lots of drama over the next year.

A GE resulting in an increased Tory majority could well have happened by this time next year.

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I see Theresa has called an emergency cabinet meeting for Weds. to discuss Brexit

%C3%9Altima_Cena_-_Juan_de_Juanes.jpg

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4 minutes ago, Dougal said:

A GE resulting in an increased Tory majority could well have happened by this time next year.

They need to hold a vote of no confidence in themselves first under the fixed term parliament act.

That's a distinct possibility given how badly split they are over brexit.

May will so not be looking forward to coming back to the office after the summer holiday.

There's a reason she didn't cancel holidays due to the crisis that is brexit; everyone knows a crapstorm is coming. Putting it off as long as possible.

Edited by scottish skier

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8 minutes ago, scottish skier said:

They need to hold a vote of no confidence in themselves first under the fixed term parliament act.

That's a distinct possibility given how badly split they are over brexit.

May will so not be looking forward to coming back to the office after the summer holiday.

There's a reason she didn't cancel holidays due to the crisis that is brexit; everyone knows a crapstorm is coming. Putting it off as long as possible.

Maybe that's why Bojo is at the Foreign Office. Use him as a scapegoat for initial brexit volatility after he's repeatedly shunned in Yerp. Trigger the NC vote and hold the GE. Increase majority and consign Labour to 'also ran' status. May then picks her strongest First XI and negotiates the brexit terms the public needs rather than the terms it thinks it wants.

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1 hour ago, claret047 said:

Hello Alexisj and other posters.

I know that it is difficult for any Government to get the timing right on important matters such as the date for holding a referendum as there are always reasons why they should not be held on a particular date. With hindsight ( a particularly useful commodity) it was not the wisest of dates, 

My reason for saying this is that almost immediately after it was held everyone at Westminster went off for their 6 weeks holidays leaving everything in an enormous political vacuum, especially as Dave Boy resigned and we then had the farce of the Tory leadership contest, only exceeded by the Labour Party's own ongoing leadership/beauty contest farce.

It would have been much better if it had been held when there was a liklihood that Parliament was in session. At least then it would give an appearance of us being open for business.

I agree with Nick S that the referendum will not/ should not be rerun, as enough money has already been wasted on an albeit flawed democratic process. We just have to get on with it and make the best out of a less than rosy situation, which I fear over the months to come will only get worse.

Personally a downturn in the economy will likely have little effect on me, but it will poorer members in society and I take no comfort from this.

It is sad that a large number of relations/friends and acquaintances that I have spoken to that voted for Brexit did so for reasons that were nought to do with EU membership:-

Examples included:-

  • Can't get a doctor's appointment
  • Too many Asians living here
  • The cost of goods here will be cheaper
  • We can become self-sufficient as a nation
  • We have no say in Europe and have to do everything those nasty Europeans tell us to.

I live in hope that although the result was based on large numbers of people voting the way they did through ill conceived ideas, the result at the end of the day was the correct one for the long term good of the country, One can only hope and pray that this is the case, as there is very little that Joe Public can do now that the decision has been made.

I have previously rehearsed the notion of too much red tape, but to my recollection other posters have not given me details of what red tape they wish to get rid of, and I am not convinced that leaving the EU will decrease the red tape. If anything, if we have to negotiate trade deals with a multitude of countries the amount could well increase.

Kind Regards

Dave

Thanks  Dave..

After just reading thru  the last pages of total kibosh and conspiracy, I finally found a post worthy of this forum worth considering,

Yes the referendum was taken in too much of a hurry, this was thought to have been for 2 reasons -

1)  DC believed he would catch the Brexiters 'on the hop'

2) It  suited the EU to have the UK 'onboard' as early as possible.

Why? This was because they knew that their ideas of more federalism,  and the the set up of their own army, (this was proved by the documents scheduled for June 27th, which people in the US published on the web), would not be challenged if the UK was on board. That has now been put onto the back boiler. It was scheduled for discussions to start the monday after the referendum.

The other reason was the elections in Germany and France... Merkel and Hollande did not want it to interfere with their march back into power.

We on the other hand had 4 years before anything meaningful could have interfered.  So we had no reason to rush into it - As you point out.

DC obviously thought he had enough in his discussions to make it stick.

Maybe he did, but to not publish a single fact, about what the economic effect on the UK of the  future european problems would be on the UK (when he had the total treasury team working on it), was his undoing... His refusal to allow access for the Brexiters was a fatal loss.  as was the campaign of personal insults to the Brexiters , this had a huge affect on the general public. It was after this event that the polls suddenly started to move in the direction of Brexit. His insistence that the data was not shared with the BRexiters is the reason why we are now so hamstrung.

The real kick off for Brexit will start this week. Looking back, after the shock of the result, it was always  going to be the UK start date for the Brexit work.. May has asked the 3 Brexit ministers responsible for their plans, and has set a meeting for wednesday.

Other ministers will be asked for their opinions. I do not expect that we will see anything of these discussions for a couple of months, whilst the Treasury ' turns the wheels'..

I do not know which model (if any) will be chosen for the negotiations. I think that a series of red lines will be drawn and if the EU refuse to accept them, then we will threaten to  leave.altogether. It has already been published that none of the models (Norwegian, Swiss, Canadian or ,Icelandic) models in existence  today  will be acceptable to the UK government.

So I guess where we end up will depend a lot on the reaction of the EU to the plans we put forward.

If they play 'hardball ' then I can actually see a complete withdrawal being put forward and no agreement being reached.

It really is in the hands of the EU. If they want to keep us in, then they will have to offer us a lot more than was offered to DC.

The cards are  not all in the EU hands. German industry will be hit hard if we exit. It will be a powerful antidote to many of the more extreme views of what they  (and many on here) will be able to force the UK to do.

Any economic  agreement reached will I suspect be a total new one for the UK.

The stronger the UK economy is now the more beneficial will be the final outcome to the UK after the discussions. Isn't that what we all want on here?

So from SS's  conspiracy theories to what I think is likely to happen.

Does anyone notice a difference?

MIA

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Well, whatever DC happens to decide, I'm off to bed...my IRN BRU is no more than an arm's reach away!:D

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2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

And now would be the time to dispel the nonsense (a straw-man hypothesis put-forward by Brexiteers) that all those who support a Brexit are de facto racists...What a pile of cack: many in my own family voted 'leave', and they are not racists!

They didn't, not one of them, proudly stand in front of a digitally remastered Nazi propaganda poster and grin like a Cheshire cat...That was, unless I'm mistaken, His Holiness St Nigel of Thanet??

Like me they may not be racists, but also like me as Leave voters they are obviously intellectually inferior to you and were again like me simply incapable to seeing through the lies and misinformation....or does that kind of thing only apply to 'other' non family Leavers? 

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1 minute ago, coldcomfort said:

Like me they may not be racists, but also like me as Leave voters they are obviously intellectually inferior to you and were again like me simply incapable to seeing through the lies and misinformation....or does that kind of thing only apply to 'other' non family Leavers? 

If you say so?? Otherwise, why not give it a rest?

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