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UK & EU Economies post Brexit


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9 minutes ago, ciel said:

So do you consider that this outcome is the result of a winning ploy?

"In the EU case, there are at least 27 other parties involved, each with a veto. The Bloomberg survey makes clear that post-Brexit negotiations will be a game of 27-dimensional chess. Theresa May won’t be able simply to stitch together a deal with Angela Merkel. She’ll have to accommodate, say, Spain’s wish for joint sovereignty over Gibraltar or Denmark’s desire for reciprocal fishing access. The eastern European states will demand that Britain make a financial contribution to the EU in return for privileged single market access. And on it will go, times 27.

The irony is that, once this process begins in earnest, once the horsetrading and haggling gets under way, we’ll begin to see what the best possible deal would look like. We’ll have a sense of the ideal arrangement, one that would give us free access to the single market, a say over the rules and a sharply reduced membership fee. We’ll cross our fingers and hope our European neighbours are generous enough to grant it. What arrangement will it be? Why, the one we had in our hands", right up until 23 June 2016.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/aug/10/europe-brexit-negotiations-eu-leave

Who knows, who cares now? At the end of the day the ref is done and dusted - the people have spoken and it is now the job of politicians to carry out their will, that I'm afraid is where the whole issue begins and ends in reality, whether you, I or anyone else likes it is irrelevant. Constant attacks on those who voted Out along with constant whinging an whining about negative campaigns, lies, posters, buses, borders, immigrants and cheese prices will not change anything imo, others however still think it might, so let them continue to whinge and whine if it makes them feel better.

The Brexit team are now hard at work formulating their initial proposals, the EU no doubt are crunching the possibilities involved and preparing a raft of responses based on what Westminster initially say. I totally agree that this negotiations are going to be extremely difficult, in fact torturous probably looks more apt, but as the end of the day it is absolutely no ones interest to let this drag on indefinitely as many countries remaining in the EU still need to trade with us.

Clearly this is not about Westminster dealing directly with Berlin, but I think we all know where the real power in Europe lies and if the Germans like what they are hearing all the problems and concerns of the smaller satellite nations will fairly quickly fade away imo. 

 

 

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I do wonder if those attacking the judges in this case (and the Mail headline is particularly ludicrous and borderline dangerous for those judges) realise that had the government legal team, itself ma

Good Morning everyone from a horrible drizzly Essex. Yesterday my elderly uncle came to visit us for dinner and brought with him the Sunday Express. As I read through it I found it farcial in it'

And I am ashamed of how xenophobia and arrogance has developed in our country - what has happened since the days when we could rightfully hold ourselves up as an example to the rest of the world?

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3 minutes ago, coldcomfort said:

Who knows, who cares now? At the end of the day the ref is done and dusted - the people have spoken and it is now the job of politicians to carry out their will, that I'm afraid is where the whole issue begins and ends in reality, whether you, I or anyone else likes it is irrelevant.

 

The matter is not done and dusted as far as Scotland is concerned.

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17 minutes ago, ciel said:

The matter is not done and dusted as far as Scotland is concerned.

I don't care about Scotland, wanted to see them given their independence in 2014 and if it weren't for some very dirty dealings they would have got it. So if they get the chance of a 2nd ref I again hope they go, but they won't get one imo, so in reality it is done and dusted for them too....for now anyway!

Note you took minutes to answer me here, yet you haven't replied to my response to your question in the Lowell Goddard thread for days, is that because you agree with me but can't bring yourself to say so?

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3 minutes ago, coldcomfort said:

Note you took minutes to answer me here, yet you haven't replied to my response to your question in the Lowell Goddard thread for days, is that because you agree with me but can't bring yourself to say so?

I didn't see the point of answering as you consider yourself to definitively have all the answers. I'll answer further in the appropriate thread later - leaving to catch a train just now.

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1 hour ago, coldcomfort said:

Each family may be worse off by 2020 to some degree (or many be better off), but the point is Alexis £4300 per annum was a completely arbitrary figure plucked out of thin air....and we all know how Remaineers loved to cry about arbitrary figures plucked out of thin air don't we, especially when on the side of a bus...:yahoo:  

Not altogether plucked out of thin air exactly - it was the forecasted reduction in GPD divided by the number of households in the country to arrive at that figure which was obviously an approximation.

Not one of the brightest ideas of the campaign and it backfired badly - whether this will eventually turn out to be fact we do not know, only time will tell.

The figures on the side of the bus were an obvious lie, like other lies told by the leave campaign such as Turkey joining the EU with the prospect of 70 million Turks migrating to the UK - there is no getting away from this.

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4 minutes ago, ciel said:

I didn't see the point of answering as you consider yourself to definitively have all the answers. I'll answer further in the appropriate thread later - leaving to catch a train just now.

I think that is rather rude and condescending to be honest. I do not profess to have any answers, let alone all of them, but what I do have is opinions and the courage of my convictions. 

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2 minutes ago, mike Meehan said:

Not altogether plucked out of thin air exactly - it was the forecasted reduction in GPD divided by the number of households in the country to arrive at that figure which was obviously an approximation.

Not one of the brightest ideas of the campaign and it backfired badly - whether this will eventually turn out to be fact we do not know, only time will tell.

The figures on the side of the bus were an obvious lie, like other lies told by the leave campaign such as Turkey joining the EU with the prospect of 70 million Turks migrating to the UK - there is no getting away from this.

The headline read 'will be £4300 per annum worse off' so stop trying to suggests this was all a one way street Mike, because you know it wasn't.

Anyway as I've said it's all water under the bridge now, if you can't accept that then so be it.....it's your choice at the end of the day.

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1 hour ago, coldcomfort said:

Must be some sort of trade deal in place with the US already then.

I really hope not - a big reason I threw my lot in with Europe back in 1975 was because with Europe we would have remained an equal partner and not subject to being the poodle of the USA where they would gain the ultimate of benefit at our expense.

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18 hours ago, scottish skier said:

Not good news.

 

The bad thing here is that the BOE forced the price up and yeild curve down by creating artificial demand when the market clearly wanted the reverse. Lower bond yields are exactly what QE is designed to do. 

I thought you'd have been a supporter of QE?

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4 minutes ago, mike Meehan said:

I really hope not - a big reason I threw my lot in with Europe back in 1975 was because with Europe we would have remained an equal partner and not subject to being the poodle of the USA where they would gain the ultimate of benefit at our expense.

So how do you explain that one then, because those are really big numbers....IF correct of course!

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1 hour ago, coldcomfort said:

Because that report is nothing more than further pointless scaremongering designed to keep Remaineers buoyed up and ready to fight on in a battle that can't and won't win. Mind you just like winning, losing can also become a habit, so crack on. 

It didn't look like scaremongering to me CC and if you looked at what was happening around you with a clear open mind you should realise that this is not the case.

The fact is that you have become blinkered, adamantly refusing to accept anything which disagrees with your own pre-conceived ideas.

 

 

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1 hour ago, coldcomfort said:

Must be some sort of trade deal in place with the US already then.

Oh if it we're so simple.

MOD procurement doesn't work like that. It's high level individual complicated deals tendered and negotiated over many prevoius years often at ministerial level. I cant think of many places in the high street selling fighter jets and air to air 2000 lb bombs.

 

Edited by kar999
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4 minutes ago, kar999 said:

Oh if it we're so simple.

MOD procurement doesn't work like that. It's high level individual complicated deals tendered and negotiated over many prevoius years often at ministerial level. I cant think of many places in the high street selling fighter jets and air to air 2000 lb bombs.

 

We still source the stuff from the States and pay them for it....doesn't matter how the process differs from importing Betty Crockers cake mix, it's still trade imo. 

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10 minutes ago, coldcomfort said:

We still source the stuff from the States and pay them for it....doesn't matter how the process differs from importing Betty Crockers cake mix, it's still trade imo. 

Yes of course we do but every cob of sweetcorn or fighter jet is now 10+℅ more expensive and that is gonna come of the UK overdrawn coffers or Jo Publics back pocket.

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14 minutes ago, mike Meehan said:

It didn't look like scaremongering to me CC and if you looked at what was happening around you with a clear open mind you should realise that this is not the case.

The fact is that you have become blinkered, adamantly refusing to accept anything which disagrees with your own pre-conceived ideas.

 

 

That sounds like a perfect appraisal of yourself to me Mike, but as I keep saying we are where we are and the only way forward from here is errrrr.....forward.

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22 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

I thought you'd have been a supporter of QE?

No, I'm a supporter of direct investment in infrastructure in a 'new deal' type approach.

Pumping money into the banks with the aim of increasing loans and debt isn't the solution IMO. 

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1 hour ago, coldcomfort said:

Who knows, who cares now? At the end of the day the ref is done and dusted - the people have spoken and it is now the job of politicians to carry out their will, that I'm afraid is where the whole issue begins and ends in reality, whether you, I or anyone else likes it is irrelevant. Constant attacks on those who voted Out along with constant whinging an whining about negative campaigns, lies, posters, buses, borders, immigrants and cheese prices will not change anything imo, others however still think it might, so let them continue to whinge and whine if it makes them feel better.

The Brexit team are now hard at work formulating their initial proposals, the EU no doubt are crunching the possibilities involved and preparing a raft of responses based on what Westminster initially say. I totally agree that this negotiations are going to be extremely difficult, in fact torturous probably looks more apt, but as the end of the day it is absolutely no ones interest to let this drag on indefinitely as many countries remaining in the EU still need to trade with us.

Clearly this is not about Westminster dealing directly with Berlin, but I think we all know where the real power in Europe lies and if the Germans like what they are hearing all the problems and concerns of the smaller satellite nations will fairly quickly fade away imo. 

 

 

Not all the people CC, the difference between the leavers and the remainers was 3.8% and those voting to leave was only some 37% of the electorate - not a strong mandate upon which to base the future of our country especially when you consider that a sizable number of your side variously did not know what they were voting for, voted as a protest rather than the question in hand and were tricked into a leave vote through lies, deceit and propaganda.

An extremely dangerous concept on which to base our future fortunes. Don't forget also that had the ex pats of more than 15 years standing been allowed to vote as they wished the result could well have been different.

All in all dodgy ground but for some reason you still appear determined to browbeat us into accepting that the correct decision was taken.

The sensible way out of this would be for parliament to kick the result into touch, then if by any chance things really do go tits up with the EU you will always be in the position of having a second bash, so all would not be lost on your side, whereas if brexit did go ahead the chances of re-joining would be exceedingly slim and certainly not under the conditions we currently enjoy.

Or the alternative is thought I am coming to now is that you do not really believe half the things you are saying - it is just you getting some kind of satisfaction in trying to wind the rest of us up. 

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9 minutes ago, mike Meehan said:

Not all the people CC, the difference between the leavers and the remainers was 3.8% and those voting to leave was only some 37% of the electorate - not a strong mandate upon which to base the future of our country especially when you consider that a sizable number of your side variously did not know what they were voting for, voted as a protest rather than the question in hand and were tricked into a leave vote through lies, deceit and propaganda.

An extremely dangerous concept on which to base our future fortunes. Don't forget also that had the ex pats of more than 15 years standing been allowed to vote as they wished the result could well have been different.

All in all dodgy ground but for some reason you still appear determined to browbeat us into accepting that the correct decision was taken.

The sensible way out of this would be for parliament to kick the result into touch, then if by any chance things really do go tits up with the EU you will always be in the position of having a second bash, so all would not be lost on your side, whereas if brexit did go ahead the chances of re-joining would be exceedingly slim and certainly not under the conditions we currently enjoy.

Or the alternative is thought I am coming to now is that you do not really believe half the things you are saying - it is just you getting some kind of satisfaction in trying to wind the rest of us up. 

You clearly are not going to let it go Mike, just like you were clearly unwilling to listen to the genuine concerns being voiced pre vote, in fact you were often very keen to totally dismiss them.

I get your passion, I even get your frustrations/anger, but imo we will be leaving the EU as per the will of the British electorate....so go on banging the drum by all means, but from a personal perspective I really can't be bothered to go around in ever decreasing circles with you on this. 

All the best. 

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11 minutes ago, coldcomfort said:

That sounds like a perfect appraisal of yourself to me Mike, but as I keep saying we are where we are and the only way forward from here is errrrr.....forward.

Well it would it sound like that to you but with every post you submit you show yourself to be completely intractable in your thinking and do not consider any alternative ideas at all.

To leave is to contract, go backwards in time and have little influence on outside events which are bound to impact - to stay is to expand and go forwards in time, co-operate with others in having a real say in our future - simple :)

 

As far as the lies were concerned it was pretty well much a one way street - this has been proved, accept it, you won on a bent campaign, we lost on an inept campaign, so the referendum was fundamentally flawed and it would be dangerous to continue on that basis.

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11 minutes ago, mike Meehan said:

Well it would it sound like that to you but with every post you submit you show yourself to be completely intractable in your thinking and do not consider any alternative ideas at all.

There's no point in this circular argument, the vote has been cast and I, you or he will have no influence on the outcome unless there is another chance to vote on something further.

The remainers live in hope .... the leavers try to reinforce, just in case it does get kicked into touch. Reality being the economics and particularly the financial services markets, on which our economy depends so much, will be what decides this.

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8 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

 

Reality being the economics and particularly the financial services markets, on which our economy depends so much, will be what decides this.

Quite.

When I post bad economic news it's not just to be negative for negatives sake. We are where we are and I hope, although it wasn't what I voted for, that we secure a prosperous future.

Being in denial about economic bad news we now find ourselves in isn't going to solve anything. Finding a way out of the holes we've dug ourselves into is the way forward.... and imo that will be long and painful.

Edited by kar999
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17 minutes ago, kar999 said:

Quite.

When I post bad economic news it's not just to be negative for negatives sake. We are where we are and I hope, although it wasn't what I voted for, that we secure a prosperous future.

Being in denial about economic bad news we now find ourselves in isn't going to solve anything. Finding a way out of the holes we've dug ourselves into is the way forward.... and imo that will be long and painful.

Well said Kar :)

 

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During the years of my growing up in the 40's and 50's certain public attitudes were common and I often heard them repeated - 'The only good German was a dead German' - 'the French did not wash and they gave up virtually without a fight', 'the Italians had tanks with two forward gears and 5 reverse'.

Other races were treated as second class citizens but happily we grew beyond that and for the most part growing into a tolerant multi racial society.

However there are indications that, albeit a minority of people are, though probably always have been intolerant of incomers and ideas in our midst to the extent that an ugly right wing sentiment is increasing.

My fear is that as we become more inward looking this will provide ground for the attitudes of intolerance to increase. 

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3 minutes ago, mike Meehan said:

During the years of my growing up in the 40's and 50's certain public attitudes were common and I often heard them repeated - 'The only good German was a dead German' - 'the French did not wash and they gave up virtually without a fight', 'the Italians had tanks with two forward gears and 5 reverse'.

Other races were treated as second class citizens but happily we grew beyond that and for the most part growing into a tolerant multi racial society.

However there are indications that, albeit a minority of people are, though probably always have been intolerant of incomers and ideas in our midst to the extent that an ugly right wing sentiment is increasing.

My fear is that as we become more inward looking this will provide ground for the attitudes of intolerance to increase. 

It's another example of trying to reinforce esteem and is probably a reason why a lot of the older generation voted the way they did. When a generation that fought wars to prevent invasion from Europe are still alive (or their children are) it might seem strange to have the doors to Europe opened wide politically, particularly if it is seen we are being "ruled by Germany".

 

 

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41 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

There's no point in this circular argument, the vote has been cast and I, you or he will have no influence on the outcome unless there is another chance to vote on something further.

The remainers live in hope .... the leavers try to reinforce, just in case it does get kicked into touch. Reality being the economics and particularly the financial services markets, on which our economy depends so much, will be what decides this.

 

I don't altogether agree Gael, though on our own our opinions as individuals will have little influence but as a significant grouping of society they will add weight to what you have already said in relation to the economics and financial services markets and in fact the two are likely to re-inforce each other as and as a result become stronger and it is through these that it is hoped that it may be realised that a brexit may be a step too far.

There are many such groupings adding up to a considerable number of people and it is our ultimate hope that sufficient pressure will be put on the government and parliament to cause them to think twice.

To do nothing brexit really would become a fait accompli and it is not in my nature to take things lying down.

If you think about it the anti EU campaign started from very small beginnings and for many years it was considered a joke and look at what has happened now.

Illegitimi non carborundum :) 

 

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