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Roger J Smith

July 2016 C.E.T. Forecasts

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15.2c to the 8th

0.5c below the 61 to 90 average

1.0c below the 81 to 10 average

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15.8°C here, 0.1°C below The MO regional average (81 - '10)

chart.png

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16.5C here.

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Big bump in average temp for Sunny Sheffield now up to 15.1C another bump today as well by the looks of things.

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15.5c to the 9th

0.2c below the 61 to 90 average

0.7c below the 81 to 10 average

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Another rise today I reckon with minima being so high- surprising that it is looking quite close to the long term average despite what has seemed like a very poor first third of the month.

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Sunny Sheffield up to 15.3C -1.4C below normal

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I'm curious where today's models would have us end up given the capitulation to the Atlantic. 

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15.8c to the 10th

Bang on the 61 to 90 average

0.4c below the 81 to 10 average

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Minimum today of 14.4C, while maxima look like being around 19C, so an increase to 15.9C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

15.8C to the 12th (14.6: -1.9)
15.6C to the 13th (13.3: -3.3)
15.4C to the 14th (14.0: -2.9)
15.4C to the 15th (14.9: -2.1)
15.5C to the 16th (16.3: -0.5)
15.5C to the 17th (15.6: -0.7)
15.5C to the 18th (15.8: -0.7)
15.5C to the 19th (15.3: -1.6)
15.5C to the 20th (15.9: -1.3)

Quite a cool mid month period coming up. No daily records under thread, but one or two may drop into the bottom 25.

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14.1c mean so far here in the Howardian Hills for July, which is around 1.5c below average, carrying on the below average theme so far this year.

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10 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Minimum today of 14.4C, while maxima look like being around 19C, so an increase to 15.9C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

15.8C to the 12th (14.6: -1.9)
15.6C to the 13th (13.3: -3.3)
15.4C to the 14th (14.0: -2.9)
15.4C to the 15th (14.9: -2.1)
15.5C to the 16th (16.3: -0.5)
15.5C to the 17th (15.6: -0.7)
15.5C to the 18th (15.8: -0.7)
15.5C to the 19th (15.3: -1.6)
15.5C to the 20th (15.9: -1.3)

Quite a cool mid month period coming up. No daily records under thread, but one or two may drop into the bottom 25.

That's a shocker. We'll need a pretty decent last third just to get above 16C. 

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15.9c to the 11th

Bang on the 61 to 90 average

0.4c below the 81 to 10 average

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No change in Sunny Sheffield mild night countered acted a cool day so still at 15.3C. If skies clear tonight it maybe fairly chilly looking at the dew point.

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15.7c to the 12th

0.2c below the 61 to 90 average

0.6c below the 81 to 10 average

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Minimum today is 8.8C, while maxima look like reaching the mid 17s, so a drop to 15.5C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

15.4C to the 14th (14.3: -2.5)
15.4C to the 15th (15.1: -1.9)
15.5C to the 16th (18.0: +1.2)
15.6C to the 17th (16.7: +0.4)
15.7C to the 18th (17.1: +0.6)
15.9C to the 19th (19.6: +2.7)
16.0C to the 20th (18.7: +1.5)
16.2C to the 21st (18.8: +1.9)
16.2C to the 22nd (16.5: -0.4)

A mild/warm third week is now forecast, which could have the CET within 0.5C of the 81-10 average going into the final third of the month.

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Down to 15.1C once more

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On ‎11‎/‎07‎/‎2016 at 23:13, Man With Beard said:

That's a shocker. We'll need a pretty decent last third just to get above 16C. 

Compared to an infamous July exactly 200 years ago we are in a heatwave now.

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15.5c to the 13th

0.4c below the 61 to 90 average

0.8c below the 81 to 10 average

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6 hours ago, Lettucing Gutted said:

Compared to an infamous July exactly 200 years ago we are in a heatwave now.

I'd love to have experienced July 1816. The coldest July on record, with a CET of just 13.4C, recorded, rather staggeringly, just two days with CET values of 15C and above (20th and 21st, recording 18.5C and 15.2C respectively).

A few more statistics:

The first half (defined as 1st-15th) recorded a CET of 13.3C, making it the 11th coldest such period on record.

The second half (defined as 16th-31st) recorded a CET of 13.5C, making it the 3rd coldest such period on record.
Had it not been for the 18.5C on the 20th, this period would have been the coldest on record.

The coldest 7-day period in July 1816 was the period 1st-7th, which recorded 12.9C. This is some way off the record for the coldest ever 7-day period recorded in July, which was the period 1st-7th in 1907, at 11.6C. July 1907 however warmed up later on, and ended up with a final CET of 14.1C.

It was 1816's persistence of well below average temperatures that makes it stand out. Many of the July months that had very cold first halves dropped down the rankings for cold second halves. 1948 was an extreme example (13.2C first half, 18.2C second half).

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The 12z GFS would suggest a warming trend after today for about five days, perhaps reaching 16.3-16.5 mid-week then falling back to about the current position from 22nd to 30th. 

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8 hours ago, Relativistic said:

I'd love to have experienced July 1816. The coldest July on record, with a CET of just 13.4C, recorded, rather staggeringly, just two days with CET values of 15C and above (20th and 21st, recording 18.5C and 15.2C respectively).

A few more statistics:

The first half (defined as 1st-15th) recorded a CET of 13.3C, making it the 11th coldest such period on record.

The second half (defined as 16th-31st) recorded a CET of 13.5C, making it the 3rd coldest such period on record.
Had it not been for the 18.5C on the 20th, this period would have been the coldest on record.

The coldest 7-day period in July 1816 was the period 1st-7th, which recorded 12.9C. This is some way off the record for the coldest ever 7-day period recorded in July, which was the period 1st-7th in 1907, at 11.6C. July 1907 however warmed up later on, and ended up with a final CET of 14.1C.

It was 1816's persistence of well below average temperatures that makes it stand out. Many of the July months that had very cold first halves dropped down the rankings for cold second halves. 1948 was an extreme example (13.2C first half, 18.2C second half).

Given how bad the Augusts of 2011 and 2014 were, it's hard to imagine just how you'd get a sub 14 summer month. 

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15.5c to the 14th

0.5c below the 61 to 90 average

0.8c below the 81 to 10 average

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Minimum today is 10.6C, while maxima look like reaching the mid 19s, so remaining on 15.4C on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

15.6C to the 16th (18.2: +1.4)
15.7C to the 17th (18.4: +2.1)
15.9C to the 18th (18.4: +1.9)
16.2C to the 19th (21.5: +4.6)
16.4C to the 20th (21.1: +3.9)
16.4C to the 21st (16.4: -0.5)
16.4C to the 22nd (15.5: -1.4)
16.4C to the 23rd (16.4: -0.5)
16.4C to the 24th (17.0: +0.4)

Some very warm days now forecast in the near term, but not yet warm enough to threaten any record.

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15.4c to the 15th

0.6c below the 61 to 90 average

1.0c below the 81 to 10 average

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