July 2016 C.E.T. Forecasts

[William Grimsley]

Going for 17.0°C here.

[Summer Sun]

15.6c to the 1st

0.1c above the 61 to 90 average

0.3c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today of 8.9C, while maxima look like hitting about 17C, so an increase to around the low 14s is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

14.3C to the 3rd (14.4: -1.5)
14.2C to the 4th (14.1: -1.9)
14.7C to the 5th (16.6: +0.2)
14.7C to the 6th (14.6: -1.7)
15.0C to the 7th (17: +0.7)
15.2C to the 8th (16.8: +0.2)
15.3C to the 9th (15.9: -0.4)
15.3C to the 10th (15.6: -1.0)
15.3C to the 11th (14.8: -1.9)

A cool start to July looks likely, with the relatively mild minima preventing a very cool start.

[Matthew.]

Has anyone ever won this CET competition twice(2 years) in all the years it's been running?

Edited July 2, 2016 by Matthew Wilson

[March Blizzard]

6 hours ago, Matthew Wilson said:

Has anyone ever won this CET competition twice(2 years) in all the years it's been running?

Not sure, my attempts at a second title have proved futile

[Matthew.]

3 minutes ago, March Blizzard said:

Not sure, my attempts at a second title have proved futile

 Welldone on winning a year. I wondered about this. Might prove more is in this than just pure guesswork if similar people are usually at the top

[DAVID SNOW]

50 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

 Welldone on winning a year. I wondered about this. Might prove more is in this than just pure guesswork if similar people are usually at the top

Last year was the first time I played the comp properly, and finished 3rd, with the best accuracy score, this year, I will probably win it

[Matthew.]

11 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Last year was the first time I played the comp properly, and finished 3rd, with the best accuracy score, this year, I will probably win it

Have you ever thought of working at the MetO im sure they would appreciate that level of accuracy. On another site theres somebody on an anomaly of 1.76 for the first 6 months! An average of under 0.3 error each month. That has to be more than guesswork!

Edited July 3, 2016 by Matthew Wilson

[BornFromTheVoid]

2 hours ago, Matthew Wilson said:

Have you ever thought of working at the MetO im sure they would appreciate that level of accuracy. On another site theres somebody on an anomaly of 1.76 for the first 6 months! An average of under 0.3 error each month. That has to be more than guesswork!

I won last year and will probably be into the top 5 after the latest results are up (was 7th overall after May, but got June spot on), but I can assure you there is little skill involved! Evening Thunder had an average error of just 0.16C for the first 5 months this year, but being a good sport, missed last month and had a few late entries to give the rest of us a chance!

[Summer Sun]

14.4c to the 2nd

0.9c below the 61 to 90 average

1.5c below the 81 to 10 average

[Matthew.]

1 hour ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

I won last year and will probably be into the top 5 after the latest results are up (was 7th overall after May, but got June spot on), but I can assure you there is little skill involved! Evening Thunder had an average error of just 0.16C for the first 5 months this year, but being a good sport, missed last month and had a few late entries to give the rest of us a chance!

 Evening Thunder's anomaly is insane. He must have been on for a record with them sort of figures. 

[Relativistic]

I won the seasonal competition in Spring 2013 going on hunches alone. Nowadays I tend to do really badly because I always go with my heart and punt for really low CET values (I'm normally in the lowest 5 guesses).

Edited July 3, 2016 by Relativistic

[DAVID SNOW]

6 hours ago, Matthew Wilson said:

Have you ever thought of working at the MetO im sure they would appreciate that level of accuracy. On another site theres somebody on an anomaly of 1.76 for the first 6 months! An average of under 0.3 error each month. That has to be more than guesswork!

The Meto, no, but I do provide seasonal forecasts for a retail chain, that has a number of stores.

I would agree, that if someone is consistently close, over a period of time, then that, imo, rules out guesswork

[Daniel*]

Am I too late? If not 15.3C please.

[Duncan McAlister]

Sorry, a very late 16.2 prediction from me (been on holiday and forgot!)

[Don]

Sorry, have been away and forgot!  A very late 16.1C from me please.

[Summer Sun]

14.5c to the 3rd

0.8c below the 61 to 90 average

1.4c below the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today is 8.8 while maxima look like reaching the high 19s, so drop to 14.4C is possible on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

14.9C to the 5th (16.8: +0.4)
14.8C to the 6th (14.0: -2.3)
15.0C to the 7th (16.2: -0.1)
15.2C to the 8th (17.0: +0.4)
15.5C to the 9th (17.8: +1.5)
15.7C to the 10th (17.3: +0.7)
15.7C to the 11th (15.8: -0.9)
15.6C to the 12th (15.0: -1.5)
15.6C to the 13th (15.4: -1.2)

Close to average conditions set to prevail overall for the next 10 days, with a CET in the mid 15s by the first 3rd of the month

[Summer Sun]

14.4c to the 4th

1.1c below the 61 to 90 average

1.5c below the 81 to 10 average

[Summer Sun]

14.7c to the 5th

0.8c below the 61 to 90 average

1.3c below the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today is 9.1C, while maxima look like being close to 19C, so a drop to 14.6C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

14.8C to the 7th (16.5: +0.2)
15.2C to the 8th (18.0: +1.4)
15.6C to the 9th (18.3: +2.0)
15.8C to the 10th (18.0: +1.4)
15.9C to the 11th (16.2: -0.5)
15.7C to the 12th (14.4: -2.1)
15.6C to the 13th (13.4: -3.2)
15.4C to the 14th (12.8: -4.0)
15.2C to the 15th (13.5: -3.5)

Some very cool values for the time of year appearing toward the end of the high res section. For example, that 12.8C on the 14th is just 1.1C off the record low average for the day, so something to keep an eye on.

[Summer Sun]

14.6 to the 6th

1.0c below the 61 to 90 average

1.5c below the 81 to 10 average

[Summer Sun]

14.9 to the 7th

0.8c below the 61 to 90 average

1.2c below the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today of 14.5C, while maxima look like being in the low 20s, so an increase to 15.2C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

15.5C to the 9th (18.1: +1.8)
15.9C to the 10th (18.8: +2.2)
16.0C to the 11th (17.0: +0.3)
15.8C to the 12th (14.3: -2.2)
15.6C to the 13th (12.9: -3.7)
15.4C to the 14th (12.8: -4.0)
15.3C to the 15th (13.9: -3.1)
15.4C to the 16th (16.9: +0.1)
15.6C to the 17th (18.5: +2.2) 

Some warm CET values over the next few days, thanks to some very high minima. After that, very cool conditions seem likely toward the end of week 2. Overall though, the current outlook has the CET about 1C below the 81-10 average by mid month.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield 14.5C expecting another rise today as well