July 2016 C.E.T. Forecasts

[DeepSnow]

I'll go with 16.4C

[B87]

A woeful 15.5c

[CongletonHeat]

17.1

[mark4]

16.8C please

[weatherguru14]

15.5

[BornFromTheVoid]

Below is the July CET from 1659-2015 in blue, the 30 year average in red and the linear trend in black.

The CET this month is likely to finish somewhere between 15.1C and 15.6C. The average July following June in that range is 16.3C

The linear trend for the whole July record is +0.14C per century. Following this trend gives a July CET of 16.2C.
The linear trend for July since 1850 is +0.52C per century. Following this trend gives a July CET of 16.5C.
The linear trend for July since 1950 is +1.80C per century. Following this trend gives a July CET of 16.9C.
The linear trend for July over the last 50 years is +1.74C per century. Following this trend gives a July CET of 16.9C.
The linear trend for July over the last 30 years is +0.68C per century. Following this trend gives a July CET of 16.7C.

The 30 year average peaked in the 81-2010 period at 16.71C and currently sits at 16.64C. A CET of 17.9C or higher is required to at least equal it.
It's been 27 years since we last had a CET below 15C. This isn't the longest spell without such a cool July though. That record is 31 years, set between 1923 and 1953.

Edited June 29, 2016 by BornFromTheVoid

[pegg24]

16.1c

[Mr Maunder]

15.9c for me please.

MM

[summer blizzard]

Given the poor modelling, what do we have to work with for sub-15C values to the 10th in terms of year.

[reef]

A rather disappointing

15.8C

[syed2878]

for July i'm going for 16.5c thanks.

[jonboy]

16.2 for me please

[The PIT]

Going for 16.6C

[coldest winter]

14.5 for me please. Cool and unsettled, I'm afraid.

[Terminal Moraine]

Haven't done this for months and on my return I'll forecast with my heart rather than my head and go for 14.6c

[BornFromTheVoid]

9 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Given the poor modelling, what do we have to work with for sub-15C values to the 10th in terms of year.

Currently looks like low to mid 15s to the 8th/9th, going by the last few GFS runs.

In terms of recent years that web under 15C to the 10th, 2007 is the most recent (14.8C), before that, 2004 (14.1C) and 2002 (14.3C) both managed it. Since 1950, 15 out of 66 years have been sub 15C to the 10th, which is about 1 in 4.4 years. In the last 30 years, it's been 1 in 5.

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

16.8C

[BornFromTheVoid]

16.8C for me, thanks

[DR Hosking]

It will be 16.5c guaranteed.

[Mark Bayley]

17.1c please 

[seaside 60]

I will try to be a tad optimistic and go for just above average at 16.9c

[Midlands Ice Age]

i am feeling optimistic too..

15.9C please

[Roger J Smith]

15.7.

[Costa Del Fal]

16.1c please. Terrible summer charts. Only cloudy nights managing to keep the temperature up.

[Stationary Front]

I'll have a 16.5 please