Tropical Storm Danielle

[mezzacyclone]

50/50 chance of a TD from this development currently leaving the Yucatan peninsula & headed WNW around 10mph over the bay of campeche.

Recon to investigate 94L  tomorrow although dry air is evident nearby & shear will contine to affect, but sst's are highly favorable & the geography of the BOC helps development,

Texan ridge steers westwards away from mainland southern states but we could see TS Danielle at mexican landfall late monday/early tuesday?

More interest to whats become a volatile start to this years season!

 

Edited June 20, 2016 by Nick L

[summer blizzard]

Been watching it in recent days but development was unsure. 

[mezzacyclone]

9 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Been watching it in recent days but development was unsure. 

Ive not been keeping watch over the ITCZ waves but are their indicators as to why so many or making it thru and/or reforming so early?

will follow the hunters later & see how this does or dont form, i'm in the latters favor despite 20-30kn shear & assume a TD at the least for Mex landfall!

[summer blizzard]

7 hours ago, mezzacyclone said:

Ive not been keeping watch over the ITCZ waves but are their indicators as to why so many or making it thru and/or reforming so early?

will follow the hunters later & see how this does or dont form, i'm in the latters favor despite 20-30kn shear & assume a TD at the least for Mex landfall!

I suspect it's just a bit of luck on the timing in terms of actual development, the B&C storms both formed during the last period of Pacific divergence which in the near Tropics (Atlantic) probably produced a La Nina like signal (lower pressures, more convergence). This one is a bit more weird in that the Pacific is seeing convergence and westerlies so development should be unlikely in the Caribbean.

The better question is why these waves are making it across the Atlantic strong enough to actually develop. So far as we can see the MJO has not been especially active over Indonesia so we are not seeing an especially unusual frequency of waves dropping off Africa and nor should the Atlantic be massively favourable to survival (though it may suggest an enhanced Cape Verde season perhaps?). 

Perhaps one of the boffins who knows more about Kelvin and walker cells and whatever else will be able to give us an answer.

 

[summer blizzard]

We have Tropical Depression 4. Will only be over water another 24-48 hours though so probably a name waster.

[mezzacyclone]

Thanks for your previous sb

well, we have TS DANIELLE

>51kn fl lev winds confirmed TS, (1007mb cent pressure recorded but not confirmed)

the 4th named storm of the season so far, incredible.

ships shear forecast saturday swung it for me with low 5-10kn figures for early monday & the stalling over the BOC gave it time to organise,

currently moving WNW around 5knots & expected to reach mainland eastern mexico a couple of hrs either side of midnight,

Next NHC advisory at 4pm.

Looks like a busy few months ahead? 

Edited June 20, 2016 by mezzacyclone