Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 11/06/16 onwards

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Such a knife edge this one is, as most of them are though! 

I just fear this may be a classic case of the French storms taking a last minute abrupt swerve NE and most of us miss out. 19th June 2013 was a classic example as was 27th July 2013, late August last year, 9th June 2014, 28th June 2011! All were forecasted pretty much the same as this today. We look bang on for storms as they are crossing the channel and then they all scurry off sharply up the Strait of Dover. 12 hours later we end up watching corkers over the likes of Antwerp, Bremen, Amsterdam and Hamburg. 

I know if it doesn't happen, I won't be too disappointed. As much as I hope I'm proven very wrong! 

[stainesbloke]

1 hour ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

I can see where mesoscale is coming from entirely myself. I've lost count of how many times I've seen the real fun and games only unfold the other side of the channel when we have been forecast storms in this setup. Pretty much the whole time between 2007 and 2012 we saw nothing and the likes of Benelux hit gold. Only the last few years have we got very lucky on some occasions. 

The forecast to me clearly implies only a slight possibility that we may see some proper fun. If I could get the train to somewhere like Lille in the next 24 hours over staying in Kent, I'd be over there in a heartbeat. The steering winds to me look unfavourable, and would favour a big eastward shift as the event unfolds. 

Would not be at all surprised if we only see a usual Kent clipper scenario. Sorry to come across as a pessimist myself and a bit conservative of the forecast later, but it would be wishing on a triumph of hope over experience to think that we are going to be slammed by MCS of the decade. I've watched ad nauseum now the amount of times we've been disappointed over this type of setup! 

Why apologise? It's an amateur weather forum, people give their opinions, many are very intelligent and reasoned, granted, but none of us work for the Met Office, do we? It's always better to be if not pessimistic then cautious in the UK. I still think a Kent clipper at best tomorrow, sweet spot NE France. Unless you're a farmer of course! 

[Nouska]

The 00Z Arome has the evening clipper scenario but nothing clipped about what is shown for overnight.

  4am UK time  

[Farmer Dave]

I agree! I enjoy all this anticipation!

[weather09]

I don't think some understand how reasoning should be played out.  If all models indicate and actually show storms affecting SE and EA but one still wants to conclude that storms will not affect those regions, then you need to back that up.  Otherwise we could say just about anything in here. I could say 'nah, Scotland looks more at risk of severe storms'. 'Potential for tornadoes over the Midlands' Just complete nonsense.  

Optimism or pessimism shouldn't come into if you're actually trying to gauge the likelihood of storms occurring. And it also doesn't matter whether you're an amateur or a professional. If you say something is more or less likely, explain why that is so.

 

[Harry]

23 minutes ago, weather09 said:

I don't think some understand how reasoning should be played out.  If all models indicate and actually show storms affecting SE and EA but one still wants to conclude that storms will not affect those regions, then you need to back that up.  Otherwise we could say just about anything in here. I could say 'nah, Scotland looks more at risk of severe storms'. 'Potential for tornadoes over the Midlands' Just complete nonsense.  

Optimism or pessimism shouldn't come into if you're actually trying to gauge the likelihood of storms occurring. And it also doesn't matter whether you're an amateur or a professional. If you say something is more or less likely, explain why that is so.

 

Agree with this wholeheartedly W09 - it's about playing the odds. In the very unlikely event nothing occurs tonight, then that is a point of intrigue to try and work out why the models got it wrong. A number of models now are falling in line with the MetO amber warning and so expectations should coincide with this. To simply say nah it wont happen is nonsense!!!

[Hodgheg]

25 minutes ago, weather09 said:

I don't think some understand how reasoning should be played out.  If all models indicate and actually show storms affecting SE and EA but one still wants to conclude that storms will not affect those regions, then you need to back that up.  Otherwise we could say just about anything in here. I could say 'nah, Scotland looks more at risk of severe storms'. 'Potential for tornadoes over the Midlands' Just complete nonsense.  

Optimism or pessimism shouldn't come into if you're actually trying to gauge the likelihood of storms occurring. And it also doesn't matter whether you're an amateur or a professional. If you say something is more or less likely, explain why that is so.

 

This is a common problem with perceptions of many sciences! Brining emotions and wild guesses into things doesn't help one bit! Evidence is key. 

Heres a forecast I've found on twitter, puts me smack bang in the middle of it. Of course another problem than can riddle this is confirmation bias. This map agrees with what i want to happen therefore its the one i will believe. 

Seriously any thoughts on this one? It seem to agree with the consensus going on with other forecasts. 

[Mesoscale]

Would people not say that the models are guessing? 

Also I think past experiences play out hugely in cases such as this one, how often have past model runs actually verified to the extent predicted? I think scepticism is healthy and helps scientists to not be bias as @John Hodgson stated. Also I don't see how anyone can rule out past experiences because they are fact and that is what science is based on. 

Was this much cloud predicted?

[Harry]

40 minutes ago, John Hodgson said:

This is a common problem with perceptions of many sciences! Brining emotions and wild guesses into things doesn't help one bit! Evidence is key. 

Heres a forecast I've found on twitter, puts me smack bang in the middle of it. Of course another problem than can riddle this is confirmation bias. This map agrees with what i want to happen therefore its the one i will believe. 

Seriously any thoughts on this one? It seem to agree with the consensus going on with other forecasts. 

Exceptionally dubious about this unless it is based on the same model as NetWx (interestingly having just glimpsed the NMM 2KM model this warning seems to marry with that). I simply struggle to comprehend why most of the E Kent coast is considered low when virtually all models suggest it will more than likely be the focal point of thunderstorms and indeed their associated risks. Hasten to add I'd love it to be right.

Edited June 22, 2016 by Harry

[Harry]

Here's a comparison of the 2KM and 5KM NMM outputs....

[SenlacJack]

10 hours ago, Blake said:

Haven't been on here since relocating to Hastings 3 months ago. I shall spend tomorrow evening from around 4pn under Bottle Alley on the seafront as the storms roll in. Unobstructed views out to sea. One of the reasons I moved here was because this area often gets decent convection.

 

I might see you down there then. I moved down here last year after numerous visits over the years and you are right about this quite often being a favourable location in such set ups.

[Hodgheg]

22 minutes ago, Harry said:

Here's a comparison of the 2KM and 5KM NMM outputs....

Hmm.

I should really just spend my day doing something productive and just see what happens. 

[SnowJoke]

See the forum is full of negativity this morning, I have a feeling some people are going to get hammered overnight. This year storm wise seems to be much more active than the last few years. I've seen 5 thunderstorms in June alone, that is more than I've seen in the previous two years here. One good thing so far this year is the weak jet stream, last few years it's been on a mad one and either rips every storm to pieces or pushes it across into Benelux. This year is different as is tonight, with the Azores high ridging up to our south west it's blocking the cooler Atlantic feed and diverting the jet stream which in theory should allow the Theta plume to become much more established over southern areas. Reminds me of setups from the early to mid 90's.

[Stormyking]

Right even though the Isle of Wight is in the risk, I think me and my friend are on about drivng Eastwards towards the Brighton/Hastings area as we don't wana take any risks,  unless any of the more Knowledgeable guys thinks we should stay put anyways!

[Buckster76]

That eustorm forecast only covers till midnight ??????

50% chance before midnight # really ?

[Mesoscale]

13 minutes ago, Buckster76 said:

That eustorm forecast only covers till midnight ??????

50% chance before midnight # really ?

Might get updated later with a Mesoscale Discussion. 

[paul_montague]

Sick of the reply cock ups on my phone!!! The BBC have just said anywhere from the Isle of Wight eastwards at risk. Personally i would head Brighton way as you better placed if storms pop up either side.

[Speedway Slider]

Where's this stuff coming from? Actually, I mean where is it's birthplace? I have attached a screen grab from Blitzortung which shows some thunderstorm/s activity exiting the Bay of Biscay, is that the focal point of where this potentially severe weather is coming from??

Thanks in advance....

Edited June 22, 2016 by Speedway Slider
An auto corrected word into the wrong word!

[knocker]

The 00x ripwrf

Edited June 22, 2016 by knocker

[Tom Jarvis]

38 minutes ago, Stormyking said:

Right even though the Isle of Wight is in the risk, I think me and my friend are on about drivng Eastwards towards the Brighton/Hastings area as we don't wana take any risks,  unless any of the more Knowledgeable guys thinks we should stay put anyways!

Let me know if you are going our way would like to meet up know a good place with views on the South Downs

[Stormyking]

1 minute ago, Tom Jarvis said:

Let me know if you are going our way would like to meet up know a good place with views on the South Downs

Sure thing mate, we are making our final decisions based on the 12z updates, not over sure where we would go for definite

16 minutes ago, paul_montague said:

Sick of the reply cock ups on my phone!!! The BBC have just said anywhere from the Isle of Wight eastwards at risk. Personally i would head Brighton way as you better placed if storms pop up either side.

This is the problem I have haha as we gotta take into consideration of the ferry cost, however we are thinking of the Brighton area. Saying that though some of the latest High rez updates have made things more awkward, quite a few of them have now put the stuff smack bang over the island! This is givng me a headache!

[Spikecollie]

23 minutes ago, Speedway Slider said:

Where's this stuff coming from? Actually, I mean where is it's birthplace? I have attached a screen grab from Blitzortung which shows some thunderstorm/s activity exiting the Bay of Biscay, is that the focal point of where this potentially severe weather is coming from??

Thanks in advance....

Not an expert, but I think the fact that it's just so hot over here on the mainland - it's 28c in the shade on my thermometer - is one of the growth factors. Estofex have a really good explanation on their forecast.

[Speedway Slider]

Just watched the weather forecast (13:30) on BBC1

They seem confident that the severe weather is going to be confined to the South East corner... Tonight and tomorrow morning....

[Speedway Slider]

2 minutes ago, Spikecollie said:

Not an expert, but I think the fact that it's just so hot over here on the mainland - it's 28c in the shade on my thermometer - is one of the growth factors. Estofex have a really good explanation on their forecast.

Thanks, will go and have a look at Estofex.....

[Odd Spot]

Looks quite dark looking on this cam with some strikes showing, and I assume it is part of what's heading towards the SE later

http://www.viewsurf.com/univers/plage/vue/12824-france-pays-de-la-loire-la-baule-escoublac-live