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Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 11/06/16 onwards

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looking at the euor 4 areas of interest appear to be the unchanged from convectiveweather.co.uk forecast last night with South Midlands southwards and a line northern England into Lincolnshire

here are their forecast of rain

Estofex not mentioning the UK again

my local met office does forecast possible thundery downpours especially further south again tying in with other data

those in southern England today west of London may get a look in today then again if the cloud proves stubborn you may not

some sunny spells are exped but I think for most it will be cloudy and we know that can inhibit convection 

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Edited by Gordon Webb

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Storm & Convective Forecast

convmap_120616.png

Issued 2016-06-12 06:17:10

Valid: 12/06/2016 06z to 13/06/2016 06z

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE FORECAST - SUN 12TH-JUNE-2016

Synopsis

The UK and EIRE will be under the cyclonic influence on the eastern edge of an upper low out west over the mid-N Atlantic, Thunderstorms are again likely in places on Sunday where pockets of surface heating combine with large scale ascent in vicinity of an upper shortwave trough and surface convergence ahead of fronts moving NE across the UK ahead of upper/surface low to west of Ireland.

... S ENGLAND, E ANGLIA, MIDLANDS, E WALES, N ENGLAND ...

A rather complicated picture once again with regards to where will most likely see thunderstorms develop. Storms will be generally dependent on where instability will be greatest and where forcing for ascent will be strongest - which is not always forecast well in slack flow regimes with alot of cloud cover and rainfall already present from weak frontal systems passing through. Where sunshine does break through expected widespread morning cloudiness, pockets of surface heating of the warm moist airmass still present across central, southern and eastern UK, characterised by dew points of 13-15C, could yield CAPE values in the order of 300-900 j/kg  during the afternoon. 

A number of fronts are indicated to move NE over the UK on Sunday, which are producing a lot of cloud cover and dynamic rainfall this morning - which makes forecasting where cloud breaks occur tricky. Storms will likely develop on Sunday as the combination of instability generated by localised surface heating where sun breaks through, large scale upper ascent ahead of shortwave upper trough edging NE and low-level ascent near surface convergence ahead of frontal boundaries. A broad area has been depicted as having a MARGINAL risk of severe weather - mainly for threat of flash-flooding given moist profiles indicated by models - with up to 20-40mm falling locally from storms. A little more wind veer and increase in speed with height than recent days across the south of UK suggests some loose storm organisation in multicell clusters is possible - which may enhance rainfall totals ... pusle-type storms further north with weaker shear away from convergence zones. Some storms may also be occasionally be quite electrically active too, given CAPE values forecast, with frequent lightning an additional hazard. A few funnel clouds or even a brief/weak tornado can't be ruled with stronger storm updrafts above convergence zones.

Issued by: Nick Finnis

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Morning all. Interesting start to the day as compared to the last 2 or 3, the sun is out this morning.

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Front seems to be moving through quicker and earlier than models predicting which is a good thing allowing more of a chance for the cloud to break up currently had a little rain here but looks like I'm slotting all the way through the main area of rain in a dry slot!

Hopefully we see the back end begin to break up and let some warm sunshine through 

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Interesting clouds this morning, do they signify anything to do with storms?

image.jpg

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I suspect cloud and suppressed temps will again stop any storms forming as per last few days here.

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Significantly less humid here than yesterday was,stronger breeze too so unlikely for thunderstorms today purley from IMBY point of view though.

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7 minutes ago, Paul1968 said:

Significantly less humid here than yesterday was,stronger breeze too so unlikely for thunderstorms today purley from IMBY point of view though.

That's possibly because it's been cloudy for quite a while now. Feels cooler here than yesterday however by this time there had been some sun by now. As soon as the sun comes out I suspect the humid feel will rocket (as it did yesterday). 

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Hmmm already the sun over the west is making little pockets of light showers increasing cloud amounts, front just about to clear here but plenty of cloud behind it 

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Looking at the showers ahead ofg the front over the north midlands these are moving north west. Fits in with the wind flow pattern. They should hit a convergence zone of a sort just north of here if they get this far. Will be interesting if they beef up or not.

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The sun is making small appearances here. It feels pretty fresh despite 89% humidity, I expect that's down to dampness from the rain this morning.. I'm not expecting anything here, it look to be too isolated.

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2 hours ago, Callie said:

Interesting clouds this morning, do they signify anything to do with storms?

image.jpg

Reminds me of the way sand lays when the tide has receded....... What are these clouds called anyone,?

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4 minutes ago, Speedway Slider said:

Reminds me of the way sand lays when the tide has receded....... What are these clouds called anyone,?

Stratocumulus undulatus at a guess,not sure though. 

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Can someone explain this wind at 300hpa chart please, I think I get the directions, but unsure on convergence zones? hpa?

Thanks in advance..

SS.

Screenshot_2016-06-12-11-19-05.png

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We get Vortmax lobes @BrickFielder but I haven't seen a Vortmax ring before..  :D

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18 minutes ago, Speedway Slider said:

Can someone explain this wind at 300hpa chart please, I think I get the directions, but unsure on convergence zones? hpa?

Thanks in advance..

SS.

Screenshot_2016-06-12-11-19-05.png

I usually look at surface winds for convergence. 925HPA which is often around cloud base height. 500hpa  (mid level) for cloud steering direction. 300hpa upper winds for strong winds or divergence.

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Warnings issued for tomorrow

Issued at: 1128 on Sun 12 Jun 2016

Valid from: 1200 on Mon 13 Jun 2016

Valid to: 2100 on Mon 13 Jun 2016

Scattered heavy thundery showers are expected to develop, and will once again lead to slow-moving downpours across the warning area. Some parts will inevitably miss most, or all, of the heavier rain. Please be aware of possible localised flooding and disruption to travel.

Chief Forecaster's assessment

Another day when the June sunshine looks like triggering some heavy and slow-moving downpours. 15-20 mm could fall within an hour in scattered locations, bringing the risk of flooding, especially if across urban areas.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1465772400&regionName=uk

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Very interesting day to come for us storm watchers , probably mid afternoon onwards fir any storms down here in Somerset ,but yesterday afternoon saw a good bit of action [very localised ]which just suddenly flared up from a very small area on the Radar ,best of luck gang .:yahoo:

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Hoping to see something here, but feel might be to far West and to near the coast.

 

Hope I'm wrong

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26 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

Looks like it'll just be another bog standard day for the SW of England today...

too early to say that yet William - just have some patience

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Convection really kicking off here! Just had a torrential downpour and looks like there's more to come! Just shows, when you don't expect it it comes! :)

Edited by William Grimsley

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