Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 11/06/16 onwards

[Azazel]

absolute yawn-fest so far IMBY this year, somehow rivaling last year.

 

Some amazing pics in this thread. Slightly jealous to be honest:( Forgotten what a surface based storm looks like.

[Windblade]

Yesterday turned out to be a bust for me. The initial signs were all good but unfortuately nothing became of it despite it trying. Copue of pics I snapped in the stop-start traffic on the way home. You can see its really trying but alas no dice...

[Windblade]

It's about time we had some long lived multi cell beasts!

 

Currently light rain and overcast in brixton where I'm working today.

Edited June 16, 2016 by Windblade

[MrNooo]

Complete cloud cover here, no sign of any breaks yet but am sure it'll clear. Hope to have a decent one today after being on the edge of a couple of storms this week. Good luck to all.

[Delka]

After yesterday with constant rumbles 3-7pm and overhead lightning with biblical rain lasting nearly an hour I don't think today will live up to it, but saying that the local forecast said nothing about thunder or heavy rain yesterday but today we are forecasted for thunder constantly between 3-6 this afternoon! I hope it pulls off, but I don't mind if it doesn't anymore because of yesterday's show.

EDIT: Clouds breaking up, feeling humid aswell. I think my chances are lookin good again!

Edited June 16, 2016 by Delka

[Windblade]

Hmm, the only chance I'm going to have today is if this light rain buggers off and takes the cloud layer with it. 

[Darren Bown]

Broken sunshine, temp already at 18c and a humid feel again. Let's see what this 'last chance' day will bring?

[Stormyking]

Beautiful little cell just of to my east coast, stuck right in the little convergencse zone and not barely moving, got a few piccies from the seafront

[Azazel]

here is my rather amateur forecast map for today. Red boxes where I think anything potentially severe could occur.

 

Haven't bothered including the almost inevitable supercell over Lincolnshire.

 

 

[Windblade]

This surface heating only seems to be able to produce pulse storms, so what ingredients do we need to get a decent multi cell storm? Is it just higher cape and shear or am I missing something?

[ancientsolar]

More sun today across the valleys, a little more power in the showers may'be

looking towards Newport is this beauty

[Nick F]

Storm & Convective Forecast

Issued 2016-06-16 09:09:38

Valid: 16/06/2016 06z to 17/06/2016 06z

CONVECTIVE / STORM FORECAST - THURS 16TH-JUNE-2016

Synopsis

A long-wave upper trough extends across western Europe as far south as Morocco. An area of low pressure will be centred over S England on Thursday, with a deeply unstable showery flow circulating around this low across England and Wales.

… S ENGLAND, E ANGLIA, MIDLANDS, WALES, NW ENGLAND and ERN EIRE …

Cool mid-level temperatures in association with upper trough atop of moist surface airmass heated in sunny spells will create steep lapse rates which will yield around 300-900 j/kg CAPE across the above areas this afternoon. As a result of this instability, low pressure and surface convergence – heavy showers and thunderstorms will develop widely across the above areas.

Storms will tend to focus near a slowly SE-ward shifting wind convergence zone separating Sly winds to the south and NEly winds to the north. Currently lying between Severn Estuary and The Wash it will drift further SE through the day. Here will see the greatest severe threat from flash-flooding and treacherous driving conditions – so have, like recent days, issued a MARGINAL risk near the convergence where storms will be most numerous. Funnel clouds or even a brief/weak tornado can’t be ruled out beneath storms that form along the convergence zone.

Otherwise thunderstorms will be scattered pulse-type downpours elsewhere in above areas, but may pose a local/isolated risk of flash-flooding.

Storms will tend to fade after dark, as diurnal heating wanes, though some showers will continue through the night

Issued by: Nick Finnis

[Barbmac]

Torrential rain on the Malverns right now. Really hammering down.

[andymusic]

23 minutes ago, Azazel said:

here is my rather amateur forecast map for today. Red boxes where I think anything potentially severe could occur.

 

Haven't bothered including the almost inevitable supercell over Lincolnshire.

 

 

looking good as we only ended up with heavy rain yesterday

 

5 minutes ago, ancientsolar said:

More sun today across the valleys, a little more power in the showers may'be

looking towards Newport is this beauty

Think we could be in a good spot today for the "goods" lol

 

5 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Storm & Convective Forecast

Issued 2016-06-16 09:09:38

Valid: 16/06/2016 06z to 17/06/2016 06z

CONVECTIVE / STORM FORECAST - THURS 16TH-JUNE-2016

Synopsis

A long-wave upper trough extends across western Europe as far south as Morocco. An area of low pressure will be centred over S England on Thursday, with a deeply unstable showery flow circulating around this low across England and Wales.

… S ENGLAND, E ANGLIA, MIDLANDS, WALES, NW ENGLAND and ERN EIRE …

Cool mid-level temperatures in association with upper trough atop of moist surface airmass heated in sunny spells will create steep lapse rates which will yield around 300-900 j/kg CAPE across the above areas this afternoon. As a result of this instability, low pressure and surface convergence – heavy showers and thunderstorms will develop widely across the above areas.

Storms will tend to focus near a slowly SE-ward shifting wind convergence zone separating Sly winds to the south and NEly winds to the north. Currently lying between Severn Estuary and The Wash it will drift further SE through the day. Here will see the greatest severe threat from flash-flooding and treacherous driving conditions – so have, like recent days, issued a MARGINAL risk near the convergence where storms will be most numerous. Funnel clouds or even a brief/weak tornado can’t be ruled out beneath storms that form along the convergence zone.

Otherwise thunderstorms will be scattered pulse-type downpours elsewhere in above areas, but may pose a local/isolated risk of flash-flooding.

Storms will tend to fade after dark, as diurnal heating wanes, though some showers will continue through the night

Issued by: Nick Finnis

Bring it on

[Darren Bown]

Not sure if the ESTOFEX forecast has been published...

 

Benelux, western Germany, France, and Britain...

Weak shear and weak flow, and rather low CAPE, but moist vertical profiles suggest that a risk of localized heavy rainfall will exist as diurnal convection develops. An isolated non-mesocyclonic tornado cannot be ruled out.
 

[Windblade]

Its stopped raining here and the sun has popped out although there is still extensive cloud cover. The sun is burning through the clouds every now and then.

[SteveB]

42 minutes ago, Azazel said:

here is my rather amateur forecast map for today. Red boxes where I think anything potentially severe could occur.

 

Haven't bothered including the almost inevitable supercell over Lincolnshire.

 

 

I fear you maybe wrong with the red box over Somerset, we have been in the warning zones countless times this year - and yes there have been storms around, but just not along the Bristol channel.

[andymusic]

I don't believe it - the jammy beggars - storms kicking off already again just like yesterday over Swansea and Llanelli

[Marcus_surfer]

Sky looks very angry to the north, but no lightning in the area yet but that shower is still exploding.

[Greeny]

Even though the charts were showing similar temps and dewpoints with maybe some residual cloud being an issue however its been lovely and sunny here and it feels like the hottest day of the convective period and more humid. Towers all around currently in and around Norwich.

[Sainsbo]

50 minutes ago, Windblade said:

This surface heating only seems to be able to produce pulse storms, so what ingredients do we need to get a decent multi cell storm? Is it just higher cape and shear or am I missing something?

If you have a trigger and the instability is there then I think the main ingredient you need for more organized/multi-cellular storms is shear to help separate the updraft from the downdraft.

 

Every now and then it looks like the sun is trying to pop out here, but then it disappears again! Nothing on the radar around here as of yet, but still very early in the day. Haven't been very lucky so far this week so maybe today is the day 

[Summer Sun]

Updated warnings

Today

Issued at: 0957 on Thu 16 Jun 2016

Valid from: 1000 on Thu 16 Jun 2016

Valid to: 2200 on Thu 16 Jun 2016

Scattered heavy showers are expected to develop yet again on Thursday, and will lead to slow-moving downpours. As on preceding days some locations will miss these downpours, but please be aware of possible localised flooding and disruption to travel where they do occur. Lightning could be an additional hazard.

The daily rise in temperature will again trigger slow-moving heavy showers and thunderstorms. Once again, 15-25 mm could fall within an hour in scattered locations, and possibly more very locally,bringing the risk of flooding, especially if across urban areas.

Tomorrow

Issued at: 0941 on Thu 16 Jun 2016

Valid from: 1000 on Fri 17 Jun 2016

Valid to: 2200 on Fri 17 Jun 2016

Heavy showers are expected to redevelop on Friday, organising into slow-moving bands in places, and leading to some torrential downpours. As on preceding days some locations will miss these downpours, but please be aware of possible localised flooding and disruption to travel where they do occur. Lightning could be an additional hazard. This is an update to the existing warning which extends the area a little further west across south Wales.

In addition to the residual, heavy showers overnight, the daily rise in temperature will once again trigger slow-moving heavy showers and thunderstorms. However, unlike preceding days the area affected is expected to recede southwards and eastwards through the day. Once again, 15-25 mm, and very locally in excess of 30 mm could fall within an hour, bringing the risk of flooding, especially if they occur across urban areas.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1466118000&regionName=uk

[MP-R]

Skies look much better today. Very slack and feeling warmer than yesterday with good sunny breaks and towering cumulus clouds. Fingers crossed for something later, though I won't hold my breath.

[William Grimsley]

Looks like I'll be either staying put of chasing in Dorset today, it's already gone bang in Somerset and the convection here is crazy, when the sun is out it feels incredibly humid, I reckon this is going to be an amazing day for Devon, Dorset and Somerset!

[Windblade]

It feels cooler today and the sun has gone in again. It seems to be having difficulty burning through these clouds which are quite dark in places. I think we may be in for another day of sunshine and showers in these parts and not much else. We will see...