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Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 11/06/16 onwards

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Latest ECM and UKMO run showing a very good thunderstorm potential on my birthday, and it's not too far away (20th), that would be a brilliant 18th!

Edited by William Grimsley
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1 hour ago, William Grimsley said:

Latest ECM and UKMO run showing a very good thunderstorm potential on my birthday, and it's not too far away (20th), that would be a brilliant 18th!

That would be lovely - natural fireworks for your 18th!

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Just now, Spikecollie said:

That would be lovely - natural fireworks for your 18th!

There have never been thunderstorms on my birthday, so it would be a first, though I'm not getting my hopes up.

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24 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

There have never been thunderstorms on my birthday, so it would be a first, though I'm not getting my hopes up.

 I'm away camping in Holyhead  next week so that could be fun. 

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Yes, nice outlook for Tues/Weds on ECM/UKM where we see a negatively-tilted upper trough digging south to the west of Iberia, with an amplified stout upper ridge building over southern/central continent. At the surface, low pressure is modeled to approach from S/SW drawing up an increasingly warm, moist and potentially unstable air mass on the eastern flank.  GFS different with the trough not getting as far south, and upper pattern generally not as amplified as euro models. More inspiring that it's the ECM/UKM showing the favourable synoptics and not the GFS in isolation, as is usually the case.  

Bit far out, though, so wouldn't get excited just yet.

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4 hours ago, weather09 said:

Yes, nice outlook for Tues/Weds on ECM/UKM where we see a negatively-tilted upper trough digging south to the west of Iberia, with an amplified stout upper ridge building over southern/central continent. At the surface, low pressure is modeled to approach from S/SW drawing up an increasingly warm, moist and potentially unstable air mass on the eastern flank.  GFS different with the trough not getting as far south, and upper pattern generally not as amplified as euro models. More inspiring that it's the ECM/UKM showing the favourable synoptics and not the GFS in isolation, as is usually the case.  

Bit far out, though, so wouldn't get excited just yet.

To be honest, we had some great thunderstorms last month so I'm not praying for them this time, but it would be nice especially on Wednesday for my 18th! Ok, I'll shut up now. :p

Edited by William Grimsley

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IMHO - apart from the last day we were care-free and good friends with the rest of Europe - we haven't had any 'proper' storms yet this summer, just convective / heavily convective showers.

I'm looking for the sort of storm you can prepare for. Like summer 2014. Proper big significant storm like that.

If this sort of storm is on the cards - awesome! If not, let's not pretend these are the storms we should be getting in July / August. I'm happy about the one we got a couple of weeks ago. Massive and very regular lightning strikes, huge booms and incredibly heavy rain. This is the sort of storm we need for summer and this is what I'm looking for - nothing else will suffice!

(Sorry I've been half-watching a documentary about a war poet - hence the short, punchy sentences!)

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5 hours ago, William Grimsley said:

To be honest, we had some great thunderstorms last month so I'm not praying for them this time, but it would be nice especially on Wednesday for my 18th! Ok, I'll shut up now. :p

There's certainly going to be some nice warm air coming up from down here in France. If Météo France are right we are in for 32-33c by Tuesday, and staying the high 20s after that. Still a long way out, but they're also saying storms for Wednesday into Thursday for us. I suspect that warm air will have made it up to the UK by then, if things stay as they are in the charts/forecast. I'm flying back to the UK on Thursday and then hubby and I are taking the Eurotunnel back on Monday evening, camping the night in N. France then driving down to Limousin - would just fancy a) some storms next Wednesday night; b) some excellent cloudspotting on Thursday morning; and c) a nice warm and dry camping night! And of course, I'd really like you to have a nice big thunderstorm for your birthday :yahoo:

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I came tantalisingly close to having thunderstorms on my birthday (22nd June)- I could see the line of cumulonimbus clouds just to the south and east, but they weren't close enough for thunder to be audible.  The UKMO and ECMWF do show a classic south-west thunderstorms setup for around 20 July, but we need the GFS on board as well to be able to get much confidence in it coming off.

Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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GFS and NMM both showing some tasty CAPE values for next Tues/Weds. BBC longer range forecast published last night also mentioning thundery rain moving through mid week. It is a distance off but we may be onto something here :)

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8 hours ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

I came tantalisingly close to having thunderstorms on my birthday (22nd June)- I could see the line of cumulonimbus clouds just to the south and east, but they weren't close enough for thunder to be audible.  The UKMO and ECMWF do show a classic south-west thunderstorms setup for around 20 July, but we need the GFS on board as well to be able to get much confidence in it coming off.

 

2 hours ago, Supacell said:

GFS and NMM both showing some tasty CAPE values for next Tues/Weds. BBC longer range forecast published last night also mentioning thundery rain moving through mid week. It is a distance off but we may be onto something here :)

Come on, we can do this! :D

Just seen the GFS, it's in agreement! :D

Edited by William Grimsley

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A rather unscientific summary of what I have seen this morning, is that the 00z GFS teases a swathe of England & Wales for Weds next week in terms of storm potential. Shame it is out of the reliable time frame, although I would say the models have for now trended towards some thundery weather for parts of the UK mid next week. It is just a matter of where... ECMWF 00z shows similar surface pressure charts. The pessimist in me remembers how I often find as we move closer to the day, the modelled low from the Iberian region tends to move on a more NE path earlier on, rather than straight N into the UK first. I hope not though!!

Decent surface CAPE/Li for 1200hrs... think we know what this will show in a few days time :laugh:

ukcapeli.png

h500slp.png

By 1800hrs - although I would not rely on these precipitation charts at this range.

ukprec.png

h850t850eu.png

So certainly some interest to keep an eye on at least. Fingers crossed.

Edited by Chris K

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Yep, not surprised GFS modeling has converged with ECM/UKM on a potentially stormy outlook Tues/Weds - euros always leading  Already considering booking a day off for this one, should current outputs hold to Monday. Moisture in abundance, plenty of instability, and an adequate shear profile would ensure good storm development/low-end severe convective episode.  

Still a little too far out though, but, finally, something in NWP outputs to get interested about.

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2 hours ago, William Grimsley said:

The BBC is already on board! Come on! :D

116989a438784cb322aa9a92b376c09a.png

Well those charts wasn't even right 12 hours ago for now so at 5 days range take the biggest pinch of salt you can manage!!

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3 minutes ago, Andy Bown said:

Well those charts wasn't even right 12 hours ago for now so at 5 days range take the biggest pinch of salt you can manage!!

Yes, but at least it shows something, don't be so negative! :)

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1 hour ago, William Grimsley said:

Yes, but at least it shows something, don't be so negative! :)

Andy's not negative buddy, just realistic and experienced.............it does look good though for early next week, awaiting some hopefully mouthwatering model output over the weekend :)

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Looks promising (at this stage promising) might be finally out of the No storms club for this year up here but i'll wait to things actually start happening. Lot of water to go under the bridge before we get to tuesday/wednesday but looking promising so far

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Amazing charts. But it's still 4 days away yet. If it is still showing after the weekend, then I will start believing. 

Impressive how far out west the 15c isotherm gets. That's a good sign regarding potential eastward shifts, as it leaves more room for error. 

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Interesting at how warm it is across Ireland currently, a lot warmer than most places, very bizzare! Not really getting hopes up too much, but if the charts still look like this on Monday, I will be excited! :D

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15 minutes ago, bigguscumulus said:

Fudge, another Kent clipper on the way :pardon::bomb:

If it ends up like that, i'll drive to @William Grimsley's house and gatecrash his birthday!  timeout.gif 

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1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

If it ends up like that, i'll drive to @William Grimsley's house and gatecrash his birthday!  timeout.gif 

@William Grimsley, you're house has been designated as basecamp this coming week....oh and happy Birthday. :drunk-emoji:

Edited by bigguscumulus
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