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Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 11/06/16 onwards

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Thunderstorm Forecast for 1st July 2016: Slight Risk of Thunderstorms! (Slight Risk where CAPE and DLS overrun and possible convergence zone!)

Similar to ConvectiveWeather, just no further south than M4, as very shallow CAPE Amounts. (Must note incredible 80kts of DLS here!)

1st July.png

Edited by Ben Sainsbury

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quite a broad outlook today, so i would go with:

weather6.png

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Storm & Convective Forecast

convmap_010716.png

Issued 2016-07-01 08:59:18

Valid: 01/06/2016 06z to 02/06/2016 06z

CONVECTIVE / STORM FORECAST - FRI 1ST-JULY-2016

Synopsis

Unseasonably deep upper low moves in across NW Britain on Friday, with a deeply cyclonic southwesterly flow across the UK. Surface low will move slowly NE to the NW of Scotland, cold front clearing SE England in the morning will be followed by a cool and showery maritime flow, with surface heating allowing a few thunderstorms to develop.

… EIRE, N. IRELAND, SCOTLAND, N WALES, N ENGLAND, N MIDLANDS …

Cold pool associated with upper low moving in across the NW will steepen lapse rates across the above areas through the day … which with surface heating of moist maritime flow will contribute to around 300-600 j/kg CAPE this afternoon. As a result, heavy showers already across EIRE/N. Ireland and western Scotland will become more widespread across the above areas through the day, with increase in surface heating leading to the development of scattered thunderstorms. Deep layer shear will be weak across Scotland and Ireland … so storms will struggle to organise. Better overlap of stronger shear (40-50 knots) near jet stream across the south and instability will exist across N Wales, N England and N Midlands – where storms may potentially organise to bring a risk of localised flooding, hail to marble-size and strong wind gusts. Generally, organised storm risk looks below severe probabilities, given cool temperatures / modest instability.


 

Issued by: Nick Finnis

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Nothing on my detectors. Pretty quiet at the moment the low temps could well be the killer today

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2 hours ago, Azazel said:

quite a broad outlook today, so i would go with:

weather6.png

I like knowing we have similar forecasts! I just find it useful when looking for storm potential myself too! I thinking myself as a beginner, creating forecasts gives me a better understanding of storms and just learning from mistakes makes the experience of storms so much better!

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A few photos from june,had some storms and convergence around a couple of times...IMGP2889 lightning 12th june 2.jpgIMGP3433-wall.jpgIMGP2771 spring lane 3.jpgIMGP2770 small funnel ukww.jpg

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Potential cell approaching Edinburgh from the south west

IMG_0901.JPG

 

 

Edited by Martin Auld

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Just heard 2 rumbles in my neck of the woods. Ligtningmaps. org shows strike SW of Designer outlet in Livingston

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9 minutes ago, AIRMET said:

Interesting, i've only heard about 4-5 claps of thunder and they were last week, yet apparently i've had many more.

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None event here and it seems activity is dying away now. Have managed to get to 0.4mm of rain though.

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Typical may have brewed a cell for someone north east of us. A big red blob just gone up.

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Intermittent heavy downpours for last hour or so, short burst of hail 30 mins ago and couple rumbles of thunder.

Edited by Alison Jeffrey

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3 minutes ago, Alison Jeffrey said:

Intermittent heavy downpours for last hour or so, short burst of hail 30 mins ago and couple rumbles of thunder.

Had the  downpours but not the hail or thunder...yet. 

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Absolutely throwing it down with T&L in DN7 (North East Doncaster) at the moment. Came from nowhere.

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Heard a rumble of thunder to the distant south, but it looks like it is missing here on radar. May produce towards Nottingham though.

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3 hours ago, AIRMET said:

 

London is the hotspot who said London is a bad place for storms? I think that's nonsense, I got 6 thunder days according to that sounds about right - it is turning out to be significantly better than last year. 

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Looks like Beverley caught a good storm around 5-30ish from the radar, strikes all round us, Malton, out in the North Sea and Beverley area but nothing here just a heavy shower

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11 minutes ago, mike57 said:

Looks like Beverley caught a good storm around 5-30ish from the radar, strikes all round us, Malton, out in the North Sea and Beverley area but nothing here just a heavy shower

I suspect that might be the cell we brewed earlier.

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Lovely Rainbow here just now.

 

20160701_200014_Richtone(HDR).jpg

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IMG_1010.jpgIMG_1019.jpg

Here are some cloudscapes from the recent storm activity and a random carrot grown in my garden:sorry:IMG_1017.jpgIMG_1011.jpg

Edited by lassie23

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