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Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 11/06/16 onwards

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Morning all. So we got hit again at 2am with another good storm. Lots of lightning and thunder and very heavy rain. This morning coming to work it was still torrential and I couldn't actually see most roads as they were under a foot of water! I've seen many storms and flash floods before but nothing like this. This was the view from blackheath...

IMG_20160623_073319834_HDR.jpg

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Where have all the peeps gone from yesterday saying kent clipper at best and saying nothing will happen :rofl:

 

On to today and later on and again MASSIVE model difference..

SAT: http://en.sat24.com/en

There is a lot of cloud around the main area associated with storms has moved off now but low level cloud has filtered in under it, I expect this to lift and clear through the morning to allow some sun in 

 

The EURO4 offers a better solution if you missed out yesterday (South east) or looking for another storm.. 

 

Netweather HIGH res favors Eastern areas.. 

 

 

Good luck all once again 

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Good watching last night! Stayed up far too late! Went to the kitchen for a drink of water at 04h00 and found the wall swarming in ants! By the time I dealt with that I was wide awake so did some more lightning maps watching. I saw the monster in the channel, which although it turned tail eastward, was amazing to witness - at one point the strike pattern did look like a big, fiery dragon! What a night, even if you like me had no storms, just to watch the dynamics and power of the weather...

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Forgot to mention the blackwall tunnel is closed both ways due to flooding this morning! Crazy night! Looks like there's more to come.

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What a night! The extreme weather has now become the second news story of the day after the referendum.

Localy we are under water in several parts of SE London,lightning strikes and flooding causing transport meltdown.

Sleepless until 4am!

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7 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Where have all the peeps gone from yesterday saying kent clipper at best and saying nothing will happen :rofl:

 

On to today and later on and again MASSIVE model difference..

SAT: http://en.sat24.com/en

There is a lot of cloud around the main area associated with storms has moved off now but low level cloud has filtered in under it, I expect this to lift and clear through the morning to allow some sun in 

 

The EURO4 offers a better solution if you missed out yesterday (South east) or looking for another storm.. 

 

Netweather HIGH res favors Eastern areas.. 

 

 

Good luck all once again 

Right here, literally posted about 15 minutes ago holding my hands up.

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Missed out here largely , apart from some distant flashes and odd bit of thunder but the rain was in the early hours was biblical .... Hoping for another chance later . Fingers crossed .

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17 minutes ago, Spikecollie said:

Good watching last night! Stayed up far too late! Went to the kitchen for a drink of water at 04h00 and found the wall swarming in ants! By the time I dealt with that I was wide awake so did some more lightning maps watching. I saw the monster in the channel, which although it turned tail eastward, was amazing to witness - at one point the strike pattern did look like a big, fiery dragon! What a night, even if you like me had no storms, just to watch the dynamics and power of the weather...

Yep was an epic night for sure. I too didn't get much sleep - I recon about 3.5 hours. Still, I enjoyed it! 

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17 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Where have all the peeps gone from yesterday saying kent clipper at best and saying nothing will happen :rofl:

 

On to today and later on and again MASSIVE model difference..

SAT: http://en.sat24.com/en

There is a lot of cloud around the main area associated with storms has moved off now but low level cloud has filtered in under it, I expect this to lift and clear through the morning to allow some sun in 

 

The EURO4 offers a better solution if you missed out yesterday (South east) or looking for another storm.. 

 

Netweather HIGH res favors Eastern areas.. 

 

 

Good luck all once again 

Guilty!! :oops::rofl:

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I've seen enough of these events over the last 43 years to know that it was never nailed-on. 

However, this one did deliver and now the Essex transport network is in meltdown. Expect the number of flood warnings to increase as the day progresses. 

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Yep I happily admit I underestimated it! Plenty of flooding on the roads here this morning though not a massive amount of lightning overnight.

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A lively night for the SE, and more on the way!

index.php?map=uk&period=24

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To think the southeast has had more rain last night than I've had all month is really quite incredible and unusual. Looked like a real show for some, just a shame it was confined to the southeast corner. I hope London has sorted itself out before I go there tomorrow.

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Even though most of the storm was 15-20+ miles away, the lightning show was fantastic. 

Hope this rubbish drizzle clears off along with the cloud, and hoping for some similar action this afternoon/evening. 

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Well that was a great night. Woken up at 1.45am by thunder/dog barking at it. Regular lightning, mainly elavated but the odd CG. Lasted a good 50 mins or so.

The rain however was something else. Dont think ive seen anything like it for such a long period. Went outside and recorded 88mm from 11pm untill 7am.

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That quenched my storm thirst. Caught the first storm down on Ryde beach. Came home had a cuppa and laid on the bed watching lightning and listening to the deep rumbles. Fell asleep n kept getting awoken by louder rumbles. Yes amazing.

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Where is @William Grimsley today and his Kent clipper :D

Anyway on current track those storms currently building are heading straight for London and the surrounding area's or will we miss them as they vear towards the low countries ???

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Storm & Convective Forecast

convmap_230616b.png

Issued 2016-06-23 09:54:51

Valid: 23/06/2016 06z to 24/06/2016 06z

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE / STORM FORECAST - THURS 23-JUNE-2016

Synopsis

Upper trough moving over EIRE today and extending south into western Iberia will drive a strong WAA regime across western Europe, band of storms have propagated NE overnight along the western periphery of a warm/moist plume from N Spain across NW France, SE UK and on into the Low Countries. The storms have developed where upper trough engages the plume's edge. Overnight storms have now cleared SE UK, but will re-develop this afternoon across SE England and E Anglia and may also be joined by further storms moving NE from the Bay of Biscay. Storms should clear out into the N Sea by early hours of Friday, as cold front clears east and introduces fresher conditions.

... SE UK ...

UKMO fax charts indicate slow-moving waving cold front will lie SW-NE from Weymouth to The Wash midday Thursday, ahead of this front – a warm/humid airmass characterised  by dew points of 16-19C / PWAT values of 1.2/ - 1.6 inches. Overnight thunderstorms that have cleared SE England and E Anglia have left a legacy of low cloud cover … but eventual cloud breaks will allow instability to rebuild as surface heating of humid airmass increases beneath steep mid-level lapse rates. GFS indicates 500-1000 j/kg CAPE across the above areas in the afternoon/early evening. Thunderstorms are indicated to redevelop as surface heating combines with approaching upper trough and surface convergence ahead of cold front to create forced ascent of humid airmass. Storms will form in an environment of veering and strengthening flow aloft that will be characterised by 40-50 knots of deep layer shear, so storms will likely organise quickly … initially a few supercells or bowing line segments are possible … though unidirectional winds aloft will tend to line out storms. Nonetheless, all severe weather hazards are possible from storms  … mainly the risk of isolated large hail (2-3cm diameter), damaging wind gusts, flash-flooding, frequent lightning and perhaps even a brief tornado where winds back SEly and increase SREH (Storm relative helicity).

Further storms, mainly elevated, downwind across the Bay of Biscay and NW France this morning may move NE across the far SE later too, brinigng a risk of flash-flooding, strong wind gusts, hail and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning.

Given uncertainty of how widespread storm development will be have issued a SLIGHT risk of severe weather for now, though may upgrade to MDT in later updates if organised severe storms become widespread.

… EIRE/N. IRELAND and SCOTLAND …

Atlantic upper trough axis moves in across Ireland and W Scotland on Thursday, associated cold mid-level temperatures will create steep lapse rates atop moist maritime surface airmass, with surface heating creating 200-500 j/kg CAPE in the afternoon – so scattered heavy showers and a few thunderstorms look likely to develop across the above areas. A few organised storms can’t be ruled out … producing a risk of hail, flash flooding and gusty winds locally … though modest instability and shear will limit severe risk.


 

Issued by: Nick Finnis

Edited by Nick F

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Once again bizarrely I was in a very low amount of lightning area last night whilst seemingly surrounded by 100's of strikes elsewhere nearby as per the strike maps, certainly quite a few flashes and big booms but no major strikes to get excited by, seems I nearly always end up in a tiny minimal lightning zone no matter what even though I'm in a supposed hotspot!  However the rain was something else, not seen it for years like it and the flooded roads, burst rivers and cancelled trains have stopped me getting into London for my first day of a new job!!  Great start! Roll on this afternoon, hopefully I'll see some decent electrical action.

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The Met office have just issued an amber 'be prepared' warning for London.

Seems the thinking is that storms will fire in the same zone as last night,or the severity will be around the capital.

Goes against earlier thoughts that impacts of this plume would hit Kent and Easy Sussex worst.

My experience is that storms rarely hit the same area twice in 48hrs and move to different spots.....time will tell,although latest radar grab seems to back. M.O  with storms firing over France in the same places as yesterday evening. 

Certainly an improvement on recent years this Westward shift in continental storm imports, apart from a notable July storm imported last year.

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8 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Storm & Convective Forecast

convmap_230616b.png

Issued 2016-06-23 09:54:51

Valid: 23/06/2016 06z to 24/06/2016 06z

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE / STORM FORECAST - THURS 23-JUNE-2016

Synopsis

Upper trough moving over EIRE today and extending south into western Iberia will drive a strong WAA regime across western Europe, band of storms have propagated NE overnight along the western periphery of a warm/moist plume from N Spain across NW France, SE UK and on into the Low Countries. The storms have developed where upper trough engages the plume's edge. Overnight storms have now cleared SE UK, but will re-develop this afternoon across SE England and E Anglia and may also be joined by further storms moving NE from the Bay of Biscay. Storms should clear out into the N Sea by early hours of Friday, as cold front clears east and introduces fresher conditions.

... SE UK ...

UKMO fax charts indicate slow-moving waving cold front will lie SW-NE from Weymouth to The Wash midday Thursday, ahead of this front – a warm/humid airmass characterised  by dew points of 16-19C / PWAT values of 1.2/ - 1.6 inches. Overnight thunderstorms that have cleared SE England and E Anglia have left a legacy of low cloud cover … but eventual cloud breaks will allow instability to rebuild as surface heating of humid airmass increases beneath steep mid-level lapse rates. GFS indicates 500-1000 j/kg CAPE across the above areas in the afternoon/early evening. Thunderstorms are indicated to redevelop as surface heating combines with approaching upper trough and surface convergence ahead of cold front to create forced ascent of humid airmass. Storms will form in an environment of veering and strengthening flow aloft that will be characterised by 40-50 knots of deep layer shear, so storms will likely organise quickly … initially a few supercells or bowing line segments are possible … though unidirectional winds aloft will tend to line out storms. Nonetheless, all severe weather hazards are possible from storms  … mainly the risk of isolated large hail (2-3cm diameter), damaging wind gusts, flash-flooding and perhaps even a brief tornado where winds back SEly and increase SREH (Storm relative helicity).

Further storms, mainly elevated, downwind across the Bay of Biscay and NW France this morning may move NE across the far SE later too, brinigng a risk of flash-flooding, storng wind gusts, hail and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning.

Given uncertainty of how widespread storm development will be have issued a SLIGHT risk of severe weather for now, though upgrade to MDT in later updates.

… EIRE/N. IRELAND and SCOTLAND …

Atlantic upper trough axis moves in across Ireland and W Scotland on Thursday, associated cold mid-level temperatures will create steep lapse rates atop moist maritime surface airmass, with surface heating creating 200-500 j/kg CAPE in the afternoon – so scattered heavy showers and a few thunderstorms look likely to develop across the above areas. A few organised storms can’t be ruled out … producing a risk of hail, flash flooding and gusty winds locally … though modest instability and shear will limit severe risk.


 

Issued by: Nick Finnis

All looking very good, thanks for the forecast Nick. Can I ask, I may have missed it but although you mention storms clearing out to the northeast do you think we may see overnight storms in the south east again like last night or will these have moved on by then and thus be daylight storms only in that area?

Edited by Windblade

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10 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

The Met office have just issued an amber 'be prepared' warning for London.

Seems the thinking is that storms will fire in the same zone as last night,or the severity will be around the capital.

Goes against earlier thoughts that impacts of this plume would hit Kent and Easy Sussex worst.

My experience is that storms rarely hit the same area twice in 48hrs and move to different spots.....time will tell,although latest radar grab seems to back. M.O  with storms firing over France in the same places as yesterday evening. 

Certainly an improvement on recent years this Westward shift in continental storm imports, apart from a notable July storm imported last year.

Agree, nice to see London in the firing line. Though maybe less rain lol? I'd still love to see an 'old style' classic plume with 3+ days of sun and 28C+ heat before the instability arrives.

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