Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 11/06/16 onwards

[Spikecollie]

15 minutes ago, Harry said:

In any event, planning your life around a plume breakdown 4 days in advance is madness....those charts will change considerably between now and then...as happens every single year

Give the lad a break! I think I'd be wildly excited, even all these days out, if there was a possibility of amazing thunderstorms on my 18th birthday...

I'm pretty enthusiastic about next week to see what happens over here, and I know I'll be like a kid in a toy shop on Thursday flying back to the UK if I get to see some CBs from aloft!

However, there are some beautiful days for all of us to enjoy before then - let's stay in the moment and relish them...

And why are the hottest days always work days...

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

I don't think Harry will get an invite to William's birthday party this year... Hehehehe

I'm unashamed in my admission that with 4 days to go I'm planning all aspects of my life around this potential plume event - although I'm lucky that I usually finish work at about 3:30pm and I usually have my laptop with me so I can work on my projects whether or not the storms happen.

The only problem is the cost of all that driving about - which again is ok cos my van has a tiny and relatively economic engine.

...so bring on the [potential for] storms!

[A.J]

32 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

Ok, let me get this straight. Firstly, I'm NOT planning my life around this event! Where did I say that? Nowhere! Yes, I do remember those events! The reason I was surprised is simply because forecasted conditions look good for Tuesday and Wednesday, as W09 did mention a few days ago. Quite offended.

Also, not sure if you noticed, but on Tuesday and Wednesday the UK is under a low not an azores high. Jeez.

Calm down William.....in this instance, Harry is right in what he says

[Dangerous55019]

2 hours ago, Polar Maritime said:

Tue/Wed next week continues to look 'hopefull'

HOLY COW!!! I know I said I was hoping for upgrades... 
But this is more than ever I could of imagined 

[William Grimsley]

8 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

Calm down William.....in this instance, Harry is right in what he says

I'm chill bro! Well, like always I never seem to be right on this forum. This time you're wrong too.

Edited July 16, 2016 by William Grimsley

[Azazel]

so, the good news is about 8 weeks ago I booked these two weeks off work in the hope we would get some hot weather in July, so i'm off work next week;)

 

I'm stupidly happy that we are finally going to get some warmth/heat after enduring the most dismal summer thus far i can remember. It will do wonders for my SAD.

 

Like William, I am hoping for elevated imports, because surface-based homegrowns are a no-no for my area, we are always too far south and the midlands/east anglia will get a hammering.

 

Good luck everyone!

[A.J]

1 minute ago, William Grimsley said:

I'm chill bro! Well, like always I never seem to be right on this forum. This time you're wrong too.

I forgot that the likes of Harry and myself know absolutely nothing about storm forecasting, we both bow to your wisdom 

[William Grimsley]

5 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

I forgot that the likes of Harry and myself know absolutely nothing about storm forecasting, we both bow to your wisdom 

I'm not saying that, but it always seems as if I never get anything right when it turns out I do. Most of us on here are novices in this kind of thing and we've just got to wait and see what happens. Currently, things aren't looking too optimistic here, what do you think AJ?

[Chris K]

It is worth thinking about why there are these inaccuracies. If you take a look at the T96 and T120 fax chart, there are still differences to the surface pressure pattern when compared to the GFS/ECM etc. This means the positioning and movement of the surface based troughs and weather fronts will also change - the likely main trigger to any storms that do develop as it engages with the more unstable, warm air.

These will update shortly but so far the fax charts suggest the center of the low by the Bay of Biscay moves up across SE England. The GFS 00z seems to want it to move up near the W coast. The ECMWF 00z  is closer to the UKMO fax charts. To me this suggests we may see a shift eastwards by the GFS operational in the coming days, but we will have to wait and see.

So yes, until the models firm up on this, it's pin the tail on the donkey in my opinion. We can only have a rough estimate where any storms *could* initiate. 

I still find using the UKMO fax charts a fantastic tool within 1 day of any forecast storm period, alongside the higher resolution models in regards to instability and precipitation. You can be under low pressure and high heat/humidity but still end up with a fully storm-free day.

 

 

Edited July 16, 2016 by Chris K

[A.J]

in reply to William......one word....imports.....that's what I'm pinning our hopes on...........the FAX charts show troughing over north west france....that'll help as a forcing mechanism for possible imports....I haven't had too closer look at the output to see if whether elevated imports (not reliant on surface heating) are likely...Wednesday's fax charts look messy, a right old dogs dinner with fronts and troughs all over the place. With the residual heat still lingering there's a good chance of SB storms just about anywhere in england and wales, but probably more so inland and away from the coasts...........but by looking at the messy fax charts, at this stage anything could happen 

 

 

edit, just seen Chris's post above.....yep 100% agree with his assessment

Edited July 16, 2016 by ajpoolshark

[ChezWeather]

Well im in Lincolnshire this week so regardless of what the charts say, my hopes are high 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

29 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

Well im in Lincolnshire this week so regardless of what the charts say, my hopes are high 

Must say that Wednesday is looking like it could get exciting over this way as it stands. 

No doubt it will chop and change, but all the parameters seem to be there to my mind for some potential supercells. 100knts of DLS, temps touching 30c, 2000+J/kg CAPE / -8 LI and a trough for the trigger. The timing just needs to be right! 

[Mapantz]

.. This is why I'm learning how to read the skew-t diagrams, for my location specifically. Generally, thunderstorms don't arrive as a frontal mass, that is the size of Wales, so to avoid disappointment, I always curb my excitement until I see something heading this way on the radar.

[weather09]

Period still covered with uncertainty at this range, naturally, but some quick thoughts having glanced at latest outputs.

Tuesday likely to be storm-free with very warm temperatures (perhaps hot toward the south-east) with long draw southerly to south-easterly flow off the continent. Plenty of CAPE showing on GFS, however strong, amplified continental ridge and dry profile aloft means likely to be very little in the way of deep convective activity, save for a very low likelihood of isolated break outs over high elevation over north and west UK.

Tues night and into early Weds sees 500mb heights fall from the west with approach of upper trough, with low-level moisture also ramping up from the SW as sfc low moves north and east during Weds.  This forcing aloft breaks out mass of thunderstorms from the SW/W, per GFS/ECM modeling, with likelihood of MCS given adequate shear profile. Storms would be rooted above the boundary layer, transferring north and east through early part of Weds. Further risk of surface based storms during Weds if very moist and unstable air mass sticks around long enough before cold front pushes east.

[A.J]

7 minutes ago, weather09 said:

Period still covered with uncertainty at this range, naturally, but some quick thoughts having glanced at latest outputs.

Tuesday likely to be storm-free with very warm temperatures (perhaps hot toward the south-east) with long draw southerly to south-easterly flow off the continent. Plenty of CAPE showing on GFS, however strong, amplified continental ridge and dry profile aloft means likely to be very little in the way of deep convective activity, save for a very low likelihood of isolated break outs over high elevation over north and west UK.

Tues night and into early Weds sees 500mb heights fall from the west with approach of upper trough, with low-level moisture also ramping up from the SW as sfc low moves north and east during Weds.  This forcing aloft breaks out mass of thunderstorms from the SW/W, per GFS/ECM modeling, with likelihood of MCS given adequate shear profile. Storms would be rooted above the boundary layer, transferring north and east through early part of Weds. Further risk of surface based storms during Weds if very moist and unstable air mass sticks around long enough before cold front pushes east.

super summary....thanks 

[William Grimsley]

42 minutes ago, weather09 said:

Tues night and into early Weds sees 500mb heights fall from the west with approach of upper trough, with low-level moisture also ramping up from the SW as sfc low moves north and east during Weds.  This forcing aloft breaks out mass of thunderstorms from the SW/W, per GFS/ECM modeling, with likelihood of MCS given adequate shear profile. Storms would be rooted above the boundary layer, transferring north and east through early part of Weds. Further risk of surface based storms during Weds if very moist and unstable air mass sticks around long enough before cold front pushes east.

An MCS?! Come on! Or, am I too far south?!

[Daniel*]

Sultry conditions, widespread very warm to hot temperatures, which is always good to have in place for the risk of severe storms , it is a shame we go back to average on Thursday but let's enjoy this.

Edited July 16, 2016 by Daniel*

[Supacell]

I think it is time for a new thread. I am going to lock this shortly and open a new one for the possible plume this week and on into the second half of July.

[Harry]

Almost feel obliged to qualify my earlier post...

@William Grimsley my point about people planning their life was not aimed at you specifically, which I had hoped would be clear from starting a new paragraph (but was evidently mistaken).

Where I was directing at you was the flip comment about there having to be inaccuracies in the models - I was highlighting that it is entirely possible they are more or less correct and recent years will and do attest to that possibility.

It is an exciting period coming up and I do not wish to poop any parties - but equally I dread reading the doomsday "where are my storms" posts which are now all too common.

Edited July 16, 2016 by Harry

[Supacell]

Ok all, new thread here as locking this now: