Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 11/06/16 onwards

[NUT]

If anything the potental seems to have increased. Going to be a interesting say 48 hours Tuesday/Wednesday but better to look near the time

[William Grimsley]

55 minutes ago, bigguscumulus said:

Fudge, another Kent clipper on the way 

 

Haha, I doubt it this time. It's a shame that the GFS doesn't want to break a lot out over this area but further north, again not sure how thundery this will be, but things will most likely change to hopefully be more favourable for all parts instead of the Irish Sea...

39 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

If it ends up like that, i'll drive to @William Grimsley's house and gatecrash his birthday!   

Feel free, wouldn't mind meeting you!

21 minutes ago, bigguscumulus said:

@William Grimsley, you're house has has been designated as basecamp this coming week....oh and happy Birthday. 

Thanks, it's a great place for thunderstorm watching!

5 minutes ago, NUT said:

If anything the potental seems to have increased. Going to be a interesting say 48 hours Tuesday/Wednesday but better to look near the time

Yeah, it's looking good, I'm not getting my hopes up, though looks like if we do get anything, it will be quite severe!

[bigguscumulus]

1 hour ago, NUT said:

If anything the potental seems to have increased. Going to be a interesting say 48 hours Tuesday/Wednesday but better to look near the time

Ugh you're right, it's only Friday. Googling MCS and MCC four days prior to a non event must be bad for ones health. 

 

[Dangerous55019]

I've just seen the Cape and LI chart for my area on Tuesday!! 
Whilst not a fan of the heat and humidity, I'll gladly suffer to watch this lot go bang!! 
Lets just hope for yet more upgrades as time goes on 

[William Grimsley]

27 minutes ago, Dangerous55019 said:

I've just seen the Cape and LI chart for my area on Tuesday!! 
Whilst not a fan of the heat and humidity, I'll gladly suffer to watch this lot go bang!! 
Lets just hope for yet more upgrades as time goes on 

That's surface based so no use to me, let's just hope we can get some imports!

[Dami]

I hope we don't get anything tues/weds to be honest as bubs is still at school. Evening time around 8pm oh go on then

Doesn't look like it's Bedford's turn again.

\o/

 

Edited July 15, 2016 by Dami

[Dangerous55019]

2 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

That's surface based so no use to me, let's just hope we can get some imports!

Fingers crossed for you William 
Lets just hope that this turns into an event that loads of us, from all around the country can enjoy... Like Early July last year 

[Windblade]

Wow. I hate the extreme heat, but if we have to suffer it at least let it bring some proper storms with it and not these hit and miss pulse type affairs. Can we please have a proper night time mcs (preferably on a fri or sat night)? Still, that being said next week looks interesting. Things can change a great deal in 4 days so lets see what happens nearer the time, as right now there is a lot of potential, plus depending on wind direction maybe even some imports. Lets wait and see.

[Spikecollie]

16 minutes ago, Dangerous55019 said:

Fingers crossed for you William 
Lets just hope that this turns into an event that loads of us, from all around the country can enjoy... Like Early July last year 

Be careful what you wish for - we still have the dents in our car from the golf ball hail of July 1st 2015...

[William Grimsley]

18 minutes ago, Dangerous55019 said:

Fingers crossed for you William 
Lets just hope that this turns into an event that loads of us, from all around the country can enjoy... Like Early July last year 

Don't remind me of 2015 please! It was terrible!

[bigguscumulus]

1 minute ago, William Grimsley said:

Don't remind me of 2015 please! It was terrible!

Wait what? Something happened in 2015? 

[Dangerous55019]

Just now, Spikecollie said:

Be careful what you wish for - we still have the dents in our car from the golf ball hail of July 1st 2015...

OUCH!! No offence or further damage intended Spikecollie 
In my defence I did say "Lets just hope that this turns into an event that loads of us, from all around the country can enjoy", and not suffer damage as a result 

[Dangerous55019]

3 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

Don't remind me of 2015 please! It was terrible!

Sorry 

[William Grimsley]

11 minutes ago, bigguscumulus said:

Wait what? Something happened in 2015? 

No, nothing bad, there was just a very low amount of thunder and lightning that year here.

9 minutes ago, Dangerous55019 said:

Sorry 

No worries.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

17 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

Don't remind me of 2015 please! It was terrible!

Certainly wasn't terrible! The majority saw some amazing storms with lightning frequencies higher than probably the past decade. On the contrary, whilst some people saw the same thing in 2014, I saw very little activity up here that year. Doesn't mean it was terrible!! 

[William Grimsley]

18 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Certainly wasn't terrible! The majority saw some amazing storms with lightning frequencies higher than probably the past decade. On the contrary, whilst some people saw the same thing in 2014, I saw very little activity up here that year. Doesn't mean it was terrible!! 

Sorry, I was being very IMBY, please note that whenever I talk about weather that's terrible I'm on about IMBY not the country as a whole.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

3 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

Sorry, I was being very IMBY, please note that whenever I talk about weather that's terrible I'm on about IMBY not the country as a whole.

Ah fair do's mate. A terrible year would have to be 2011 I think. Hope we never see the like again. El Gordo was the biggest bust I think I ever had the misfortune of witnessing, and then we saw virtually nothing all summer after! 

[Supacell]

38 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Ah fair do's mate. A terrible year would have to be 2011 I think. Hope we never see the like again. El Gordo was the biggest bust I think I ever had the misfortune of witnessing, and then we saw virtually nothing all summer after! 

Yes I would say 2011 is the worst year I have endured since I started storm chasing. Very interested in Tues/Weds of next week. I am working so I am hoping for evening/night time action. A repeat of the 3rd/4th July 2015 would be very welcomed here, that or the 22nd/23rd July 2013. I would rather not a repeat of 28th June 2012 as had I not been off on that day I would have missed the entire event.

[Polar Maritime]

Tue/Wed next week continues to look 'hopefull'

[Spikecollie]

10 hours ago, Dangerous55019 said:

OUCH!! No offence or further damage intended Spikecollie 
In my defence I did say "Lets just hope that this turns into an event that loads of us, from all around the country can enjoy", and not suffer damage as a result 

No offence taken! That (July 1 2015) was an amazing event to witness, but I wouldn't want too many of them...

On that note, there will certainly be some heat coming up from this direction by next week, with up to 40c forecast - going to work in that will be fun!

I think we could all be in for a very interesting week ahead...

[William Grimsley]

BBC Weather graphics still on board with widespread thunderstorms on Tuesday Night and Wednesday, though only showing light rain showers for my location, will be just putting this down to innacuracy for now.

What's even more strange is the lack of preciptation on both the NMM and GFS for this area even though ML CAPE is at it's highest, again putting this down to innacuracy.

Edited July 16, 2016 by William Grimsley

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Well I have the storm van back (along with my cameras!) so already planning a night of chasing Tuesday night.

i know it won't happen but if we did get 40°C just imagine how much energy there would be... It would be fantastic!

Anyway I'm getting carried away so I'll stop... Hope those who need it get their big storm!

[Harry]

1 hour ago, William Grimsley said:

BBC Weather graphics still on board with widespread thunderstorms on Tuesday Night and Wednesday, though only showing light rain showers for my location, will be just putting this down to innacuracy for now.

What's even more strange is the lack of preciptation on both the NMM and GFS for this area even though ML CAPE is at it's highest, again putting this down to innacuracy.

Why on earth would you put it down to inaccuracy? The Azores High is a notorious bit of a kit at suppressing thunderstorm activity - furthermore, if there's no trigger, all that juice will not materialise. Can I not cast your minds back to El Brummo when the SE baked in 33C and obscene humidity (with as much convective juice, if not more, than those areas which saw widespread severe storms) but skies here remained clear all day - as correctly predicted by the major models including GFS. Or cast your minds back to July last year where the SE quarter erupted with widespread thunderstorms, while N France and Benelux saw nothing.

In any event, planning your life around a plume breakdown 4 days in advance is madness....those charts will change considerably between now and then...as happens every single year 

 

Edited July 16, 2016 by Harry

[William Grimsley]

8 minutes ago, Harry said:

Why on earth would you put it down to inaccuracy? The Azores High is a notorious bit of a kit at suppressing thunderstorm activity - furthermore, if there's no trigger, all that juice will not materialise. Can I not cast your minds back to El Brummo when the SE baked in 33C and obscene humidity (with as much convective juice, if not more, than those areas which saw widespread severe storms) but skies here remained clear all day. Or cast your minds back to July last year where the SE quarter erupted with widespread thunderstorms, while N France and Benexlus saw nothing.

In any event, planning your life around a plume breakdown 4 days in advance is madness....those charts will change considerably between now and then...as happens every single year 

 

Ok, let me get this straight. Firstly, I'm NOT planning my life around this event! Where did I say that? Nowhere! Yes, I do remember those events! The reason I was surprised is simply because forecasted conditions look good for Tuesday and Wednesday, as W09 did mention a few days ago. Quite offended.

Also, not sure if you noticed, but on Tuesday and Wednesday the UK is under a low not an azores high. Jeez.

Edited July 16, 2016 by William Grimsley

[stevofunnelcl]

Going from recent experience, the south-west tends to miss out a lot.

I may head over somewhere in the south-east if things look good for Wednesday

I've learn from past experience, during intense heatwaves, never stay in a non-air conditioned room