Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 11/06/16 onwards

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Can't believe how this summer has gone from hero to zero on the convective front. Nothing but a snoozefest in the foreseeable to my eye. 

[Greeny]

Nice, hot and humid here with some nice convection bubbling but capped as expected. Could have been good if conditions above were right.

[Summer Sun]

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 10 Jul 2016 - 05:59 UTC Mon 11 Jul 2016

ISSUED 08:44 UTC Sun 10 Jul 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

Scattered showers / showery outbreaks of rain will affect many areas through Sunday, and with some marginal instability may just produce a few lightning strikes - especially across S Scotland down into E England.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-07-10

[Greeny]

I'm surprised convective weather hasn't issued a convective outlook for tomorrow unless I'm missing something, perhaps the area is too small, ok things are not overly impressive and lapse rates not that steep but some CAPE showing although modest over eastern Scotland (early afternoon) and East England a little later. Occluded fronts moving in according to metO SLP chart including a trough. GFS shows increased upper level vorticity spreading from southwest to EA and out over the north sea and beyond. DLS weak so pulse storms at best if any. Unlikely any CZs and looks to be a little windy the more east you are and losing intensity throughout the course of the day according to GFS any way. Low cloud bases forecast, LLS reasonably strong. Certainly nothing widespread and certainly not a great deal forecast for tomorrow but worth a mention I guess

A feeling of uncertainty and noone else on board mentioning it does give me a sense of reluctancy but its the convective forecast topic so what the hell.

Edited July 10, 2016 by Greeny

[Mapantz]

Tuesday holds some interest as well @Greeny

[Greeny]

Yeah thats true I did notice but decided to look in more detail for tomorrow

[William Grimsley]

Not getting any hopes up, but lets say by the start of next week, we should've had a thunderstorm!

[William Grimsley]

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 11 Jul 2016 - 05:59 UTC Tue 12 Jul 2016

ISSUED 21:58 UTC Sun 10 Jul 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

A messy situation once again on Monday with a mixture of dynamic and convective precipitation, as various old occlusions / troughs pivot eastwards in the flow. There is scope late morning / early afternoon that some heavy showers may develop across E / SE Scotland and NE England, before clearing eastwards out across the North Sea during the afternoon - a low chance of thunder with this.

Farther south, late initiation (late afternoon into the evening) seems possible as a couple of convergence zones develop; one from SE Wales - Midlands - East Anglia, and another just inland from the south coast curving NE towards SE London / Thames Estuary, provide the focus for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. 20-30kts DLS should allow some cells to become organised, with the potential for some gusty winds and perhaps some small hail.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-07-11

Edited July 11, 2016 by William Grimsley

[alexisj9]

10 hours ago, Greeny said:

I'm surprised convective weather hasn't issued a convective outlook for tomorrow unless I'm missing something, perhaps the area is too small, ok things are not overly impressive and lapse rates not that steep but some CAPE showing although modest over eastern Scotland (early afternoon) and East England a little later. Occluded fronts moving in according to metO SLP chart including a trough. GFS shows increased upper level vorticity spreading from southwest to EA and out over the north sea and beyond. DLS weak so pulse storms at best if any. Unlikely any CZs and looks to be a little windy the more east you are and losing intensity throughout the course of the day according to GFS any way. Low cloud bases forecast, LLS reasonably strong. Certainly nothing widespread and certainly not a great deal forecast for tomorrow but worth a mention I guess

A feeling of uncertainty and noone else on board mentioning it does give me a sense of reluctancy but its the convective forecast topic so what the hell.

Well even the forecast mentions the possibility of storms later, saying most will see heavy showers, some of which will be thundery.

[Greeny]

11 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Well even the forecast mentions the possibility of storms later, saying most will see heavy showers, some of which will be thundery.

I feel better now its in

[Windblade]

On 07/07/2016 at 16:56, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Good to see something on the (proverbial) horizon!

Yes, its certainly looking more interesting towards the end of this week. I spotted a huge amount of cirrus last night at sunset as well, and although they let me down last time I have good faith in that cirrus usually indicates severe weather in 24-48 hours and usually gets it right about 80% of the time from my experience. Trying not to get my hopes up too much only to be left disappointed, but its a good sign that compliments the forecast that something could happen towards the end of the week.

[Windblade]

Ok, so I didn't expect much to happen today but we have some nice towers just starting to go up in london. Could be on for something later.

Edited July 11, 2016 by Windblade

[Greeny]

40 minutes ago, Windblade said:

Ok, so I didn't expect much to happen today but we have some nice towers just starting to go up in london. Could be on for something later.

Looks like a squall line west of London heading east northeast. Some small cells over London too. Cell close to me also.

[Andy Bown]

42 minutes ago, Greeny said:

Looks like a squall line west of London heading east northeast. Some small cells over London too. Cell close to me also.

Not a squall line, a convergence zone stretching all the way from East Anglia to Cornwall, very impressive.

[Harry]

Having just stepped outside, despite the breeze and the passing of a cold front over the weekend, still very warm feeling airmass outside and fairly humid. 

Suspect any downpours through this afternoon could be quite torrential.

Remain unsure about coverage of any electrical activity.

Edited July 11, 2016 by Harry

[Hurricane Debby]

Very, very dark here !

[Greeny]

33 minutes ago, Andy Bown said:

Not a squall line, a convergence zone stretching all the way from East Anglia to Cornwall, very impressive.

I missed it cause it isn't at such an acute angle as we saw a couple of weeks back. I guess as the winds are stronger at the surface they don't have to be colliding head on as such. More to add to what I've learn't.

PWAT values are forecast as 27mm so yeah could drop a fair amount.

Edited July 11, 2016 by Greeny

[Biggin]

Mod rain here now and darker of course.

[Harry]

Pretty thunderous downpour here right now - no thunder, but rainfall quite intense.

[William Grimsley]

Feeling quite thundery here, downpours developing to the SW.

[Methuselah]

No thunder here, but some quite impressive rainfall. It's as muggy as hell!

[matt111]

Been sat under that rain all afternoon with moderate to heavy rain almost non-stop. Feels very humid despite the temperature dropping from 21c to 15c in a short space of time along with the strong wind. 

Edited July 11, 2016 by matt111

[William Grimsley]

Some really torrential downpours just south of here, won't be surprised if I hear a rumble of thunder soon.

[TropicThunder]

35 minutes ago, matt111 said:

Been sat under that rain all afternoon with moderate to heavy rain almost non-stop. Feels very humid despite the temperature dropping from 21c to 15c in a short space of time along with the strong wind. 

I've been in the Bishops Waltham area most of the afternoon and it's been warm and sunny, not a drop of rain and I hadn't even realised there was a risk today but thought the sky to the north looked quite stormy! Just got home and checked the radar, a bit surprised there hasn't been more electrical activity.

[matt111]

22 minutes ago, TropicThunder said:

I've been in the Bishops Waltham area most of the afternoon and it's been warm and sunny, not a drop of rain and I hadn't even realised there was a risk today but thought the sky to the north looked quite stormy! Just got home and checked the radar, a bit surprised there hasn't been more electrical activity.

Shows the difference a few miles can make. 8.8mm so far today all fallen this afternoon. 

Edited July 11, 2016 by matt111