Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 11/06/16 onwards

[Cloud 10]

Quite a potent cell near Newcastle at the moment giving a few strikes.

 

[mckaymckaymckay]

Nothing in South Shields yet, however a few strikes in newcastle reported.

 

[Allseasons-Si]

14 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

Quite a potent cell near Newcastle at the moment giving a few strikes.

 

Did you thunder cloud 10,sferic near you.

[Methuselah]

No thunder, but the raindrops a huge!

[mckaymckaymckay]

Just seen a flash, just west of washington by the looks of it.

[Cloud 10]

29 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Did you thunder cloud 10,sferic near you.

 

Yes,heard a few decent rumbles about 20 minutes ago.

[Methuselah]

Torrential rain and thunder. I didn't expect too any today...

[Stephanie Starr]

2 hours ago, Supacell said:

I think tomorrow I may take a trip to Lincolnshire and stay there for the afternoon/evening

Really does it talk of something storm 

[Weather-history]

Some good convective weather today from Irlam. Heavy showers and sunshine

 

[Supacell]

47 minutes ago, Stephanie Starr said:

Really does it talk of something storm 

Quite a widespread risk of heavy showers and thunderstorms tomorrow but with a W to NW flow I would expect eastern areas to fair best. Lincolnshire and East Anglia are always a good bet in a W'ly flow.

[carl1980]

Nice cloud formations this evening, maybe a small funnel as it developed

[Allseasons-Si]

It has been a good day for cloudscapes,structures and rainbows,even though i didn't get a storm...AGAIN i did enjoy today,here is a few pics

shower #1

a CB to my west

shower #2 that did produce sferics over Buxton before it got here then slowly died out but produced a nice rainbow

another CB firing up behind shower #2

and a CB in the sunset(2-5 minute intervals)

hope to catch a storm tomorrow.

 

 

 

 

 

[Nick F]

My storm forecast for Saturday

Storm & Convective Forecast

Issued 2016-06-24 21:56:32

Valid: 25/06/2016 06z to 26/06/2016 06z

CONVECTIVE / STORM FORECAST - SAT 25TH-JUNE-2016

Synopsis

Upper trough axis toward the western side of UK on Friday continues to shift further east on Saturday, with slow-moving surface low pressure centred near the east coast, which will focus greatest instability for showers/storm production further east.

... SCOTLAND, N ENGLAND, MIDLANDS, E ANGLIA, CENTRAL S and SE ENGLAND ...

Trough of cold air aloft shifting slowly east atop of moist maritime surface flow warmed by sunny spells will create steep lapse rates and yield 300-900 j/kg CAPE per GFS and ECMWF. As a result ... heavy showers and thunderstorms will readily develop across the above areas after a dry start in many places. A few convergence zones are indicated by models, one from western Scotland southeast across Pennines of England and toward E Anglia ... perhaps another W-E zone across SE England. These zones will tend to focus and allow training of thunderstorms which will bring the threat of locally high spot rainfall totals and localised flooding risk given slow-movement of storms. Also storms may produce hail, frequent lightning and gusty winds. Weak winds aloft and convergence will create ideal conditions for funnel clouds or even isolated brief/weak tornadoes with stronger updrafts. These diurnally driven storms will tend to die out after dark.

Issued by: Nick Finnis

Edited June 24, 2016 by Nick F

[Allseasons-Si]

No marginal Nick!

[Supacell]

I will certainly be out an about with my camera tomorrow. It looks like I may stay close to home but with the plan to head eastwards at some point. One of the best techniques tomorrow would be to locate the convergence zones and stick near them.

[Allseasons-Si]

18 minutes ago, Supacell said:

I will certainly be out an about with my camera tomorrow. It looks like I may stay close to home but with the plan to head eastwards at some point. One of the best techniques tomorrow would be to locate the convergence zones and stick near them.

I have the car to service tomorrow(myself)so hopefully get  it done before things kick off

i see where Nick f is coming from with the convergence zones,i have drawn a couple of red lines illustrating this(hope you don't mind Nick),,if i have got this wrong then correct me but i did look carefully at this,looks good for this neck of the woods

 

 

Edited June 24, 2016 by Allseasons-si
spell check

[Martin Auld]

I don't know if I'm seeing things out of desperation but I was observing a shower to the east of my location and there was a massive flash in the sky so obviously I got excited until I realised there was no thunder to follow up the flash and nothing has been detected in either blitzortung or the net weather storm Radar so I have no idea what that flash was, anyone have an idea?

[Greeny]

9 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

I have the car to service tomorrow(myself)so hopefully get  it done before things kick off

i see where Nick f is coming from with the convergence zones,i have drawn a couple of red lines illustrating this(hope you don't mind Nick),,if i have got this wrong then correct me but i did look carefully at this,looks good for this neck of the woods

 

 

Its the convective discussion thread, I'm sure Nick won't mind one bit  Its worth taking into consideration earlier times. 12Z and 15Z is a good time to look at imo, initiation is more likely to be around those times. Plus if on pulse storm like days where shear is weak if you're trying to see a funnel like Im trying then its more likely to produce one as its intensifying when the updrafts are strongest and are not being choked off by downdrafts.

[Polar Maritime]

Showers look to be slowly building here, Chance of convection and heavy showers here in the forecasts so fingers crossed.  Looking W/N/E..

Edited June 25, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[Allseasons-Si]

@Greeny,thanks for the info

big shower developing just to my west now,and fast

[MrNooo]

Very unstable today here, clouds building up very quickly, reckon showers will be kicking off here within the next hour or less

[The PIT]

For once the s8 avoid showers is working in my favor. Washing out showers gone either side of me not a drop here so far.

[paul_montague]

Nice deep rumbles of thunder here. Being spoilt with storms at the moment.

[Rw3991]

Storm developing overhead here big shotgun thunder 

[The PIT]

Washing dried just had a light shower. Looks like we are on the edge of the shower field so probbaly be the story of the day light showers all the action further south and maybe northeast England.