Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 11/06/16 onwards

[Windblade]

9 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

The type of storms that affect the near continent in recent years certainly used to affect parts of the UK, mainly the S and SE in particular but not exclusively. I think France etc have always had these storms; imho what has changed for the UK is that we experience far less in the way of proper plumes that have at least several days of hot sun and reach further north than they do now. As to why? No real idea, could be the jet stream being too far south?

I've been wondering the same thing mate. I don't really understand whats changed.

[Nick F]

Storm & Convective Forecast

Issued 2016-06-24 08:42:35

Valid: 24/06/2016 06z to 25/06/2016 06z

CONVECTIVE / STORM FORECAST - FRI 24TH-JUNE-2016

Synopsis

Upper trough/low moves eastward above the UK and Ireland on Friday, with a shallow surface low drifting E/SE across Scotland. A slack and unstable SWly or Wly flow covers much of the UK.

... NORTHERN, CENTRAL AND WESTERN UK + EIRE ...

Upper low and associated cold mid-level tempeatures will create steep lapse rates across the above areas as it edges east. As a result, strong sunshine creating surface heating of fairly moist maritime flow will yield CAPE values of 300-700 j/kg quite widely over land. So diurnally-driven scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms will develop late morning and through the afternoon.

0-6km wind shear will be weak across northern and western areas and with light winds aloft, storms will be slow-moving across Scotland and EIRE/N. Ireland - bringing a localised risk of large spot rainfall totals in a short space of time leading to localised flooding. Storms here may also be accompanied by hail and gusty winds. Surface breeze convergence over Scotland near centre of low drifting SE combined with light winds and low cloud bases will create conditions favourable for funnel clouds or even brief/weak tornadoes too.

Wind shear across E Wales, N England and Midlands will be somewhat stronger, 30-40knts, thanks to being on the edge of strong SWly jet aloft. So some organisation of storms into clusters is possible, bringing a localised risk of torrential rain leading to flash flooding, strong wind gusts, frequent lightning and perhaps isolated marginally large hail. Have issued a MARGINAL risk for these areas.

 

Issued by: Nick Finnis

[Windblade]

Looks like we're out of the zone today. Tomorrow late afternoon/evening is looking slightly better according to netweathers local storm forecast so will keep an eye on that. Good luck to everyone else for today.

Edited June 24, 2016 by Windblade

[William Grimsley]

50 minutes ago, Windblade said:

Looks like we're out of the zone today. Tomorrow late afternoon/evening is looking slightly better according to netweathers local storm forecast so will keep an eye on that. Good luck to everyone else for today.

Think we all need good luck for another reason...

[Supacell]

I will be finishing work in about 2 hours and then hopeful of a storm this afternoon (even if I have to take a short drive out).

[Bridgehill Blizzard]

Bouncing down in Durham, no thunder just  yet. Might as it passes Newcastle.

[mckaymckaymckay]

No rain or thunder in Newcastle yet.

[Bridgehill Blizzard]

Thunder reported in Northumberland 

[Windblade]

1 hour ago, William Grimsley said:

Think we all need good luck for another reason...

Whys that mate?

[Windblade]

I see towers shooting up in all directions here in tower hamlets with plenty of sunshine. Its also quite warm. Is there any chance we may indeed get in on any action today? Nick, what do you think? Any chance the convergence zone can move south a bit today?

Edited June 24, 2016 by Windblade

[Ben Sainsbury]

For those that don't follow me a twitter, I created a storm forecast an hour ago.

[NUT]

Looking over in the ireland direction surprised there's not more strikes on radar as it looks kind of wet there

[Fiona Robertson]

A few strikes in Scotland showing on lightningmaps.org, nothing huge as yet. Fingers, toes and eyes crossed.

[William Grimsley]

Some lovely cells have developed around home, surprised they haven't electrified!

[William Grimsley]

Lightning just detected near Bridgwater!

[MrNooo]

Torrential shower here, no sparks or bangs but it's certainly coming down.

[Supacell]

A nice storm looks to be moving towards Bridgnorth which may then be coming my way, it has to survive a distance to manage it though but my eyes are on it.

[Allseasons-Si]

A nice little cell has popped off WSW of Bridgnorth W midlands.

[Stormraider]

Couple of rumbles from the cell Bridgnorth way...

 

[Allseasons-Si]

3 minutes ago, Supacell said:

A nice storm looks to be moving towards Bridgnorth which may then be coming my way, it has to survive a distance to manage it though but my eyes are on it.

Talk about timing

looks like i am in the middle of two cells,one in Mancherster and the one we are talking about,may chase later depending on the activity.

[Supacell]

4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Talk about timing

looks like i am in the middle of two cells,one in Mancherster and the one we are talking about,may chase later depending on the activity.

The Bridgnorth cell is developing an interesting radar signature - 15:25 and 15:30

  

Edited June 24, 2016 by Supacell

[Allseasons-Si]

3 minutes ago, Supacell said:

The Bridgnorth cell is developing an interesting radar signature

  

You on about the comma shape,looks to be rotation on that

[NUT]

Getting 1 or 2 showers here now

[Supacell]

4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

You on about the comma shape,looks to be rotation on that

Yes, it is hard to tell from the radar though. It would be interesting to hear what it looks like from the ground.

[Stormraider]

Rumbling well to my south, can't see signs of rotation from here. Maybe Kain can confirm?