Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 11/06/16 onwards

[A.J]

again, there is a separate thread for European storm discussion....thanks

[Odd Spot]

Non stop flashing on Duisburg cam. Looks like lens need a wipe as this is normally a clear video stream

http://www.wetter.com/wettercom-live/duisburg-sportschule-wedau/5295e2f857bad/

Also the Essen cam

http://www.wetter.com/wettercom-live/essen-ruhrturm/5295eabf9daa2/

And the Monchengladbach cam ready for in a bit when the storm hits

http://www.wetter.com/wettercom-live/moenchengladbach-best-western/53bfce02f124e/

And whoever controls these webcams, STOP ZOOMING IN

Edited June 23, 2016 by Odd Spot

[Greeny]

7 minutes ago, Odd Spot said:

Non stop flashing on Duisburg cam. Looks like lens need a wipe as this is normally a clear video stream

http://www.wetter.com/wettercom-live/duisburg-sportschule-wedau/5295e2f857bad/

Also the Essen cam

http://www.wetter.com/wettercom-live/essen-ruhrturm/5295eabf9daa2/

 

13 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

again, there is a separate thread for European storm discussion....thanks

[Mullet69]

That line of heavy stuff between Donny and York has literally just become electrical. Seen 2 flashes from it, and it's slow moving. First thunder I've heard in months

[Odd Spot]

5 minutes ago, Greeny said:

 

Ooops

Yeah but folk rarely use the Euro thread, although I have noticed a few on this evening

[William Grimsley]

31 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

The southwest compared to the east William is merely a slash in the wind bud. If you had a choice to live in an area purely on the decision of convective activity, would you really choose Cornwall or Devon over the likes of Kent or Lincolnshire? 

Devon, because my place of living isn't decided by the weather?

[Mesoscale]

France, Belgium, Germany and maybe Luxembourg get all the fun these days, I wonder if these same storm systems would have been the same types that would have affected the UK throughout the 80s and 90s? or are these storms something substantially different? 

Also did these Benelux countries and Germany get the same amount of storms as now or did they have different patterns of weather? If they did what has changed for the British weather?

So many questions though. 

Edited June 23, 2016 by Mesoscale

[Supacell]

As AJ has said, please can we keep this thread to UK convective discussion and post about European storms in the dedicated thread.

Some people have already moved over there, so please follow suit. That thread should be buzzing currently with all the excitement over there.

 

[Craigers]

Amazing views from Doncaster!

Edited June 23, 2016 by Craigers

[weather09]

10 minutes ago, Greeny said:

Just a quick look at tomorrows potential which still has some DLS albeit a little less than today forecast to slowly exit the east overlapping CAPE and there is supercell parameters in place for the midlands plus from west to east throughout the day significant tornado parameters forecast by Lightningwizard.com ..

Yes, still strong mid-level flow over country tomorrow though jet shifting east into Saturday as upper low and cooling mid-levels migrates eastward over the course of Fri/Sat. Environment becoming unstable to surface heating (perhaps several 100J/kg CAPE)  over much of UK under cool 500mb profile and steepening mid-level lapse rates. In that respect, looks better than today as clearer skies look more likely.

Being a post-front, maritime environment, however, no real warmth, low-level moisture nowhere near as high as the last 36 hours, and relatively low instability means significant convective weather would appear to be low.  Though could be an ideal mix of CAPE and shear, particularly toward the east where models have the overlap of strong SW'erly flow aloft and instability. So shear possibility taking advantage of any stronger updrafts that can develop (enough for updraft/downdraft separation) to bring about a more sig. risk. Moderate size hail and gusty downdraft winds the main risks in that case.  Otherwise generally a showery day with moderate risk of scattered storms.

[Bolt from the Blue]

Radar showing that a cell has fired just south of York, can anyone verify? 

[Muffelchen]

Stuff is developing to the SW of here now and there as been a few strikes between here and York.  This line is now growing southwards and making progress eastwards. If we have anything, it will be the first time this year, which must be some kind of record!

[knocker]

 

[Mullet69]

12 minutes ago, AIRMET said:

Radar showing that a cell has fired just south of York, can anyone verify? 

Verified. Formed a line between (almost) Donny and York, some of it died as it reached York but it spawned another cell that formed just north of York (towards Helmsley). Caught a couple of flashes to the south and had a see bit of moderate rain but it's moving more eastwards now - I'm on the east side of York but wouldn't be surprised at some major rainfall rates from the south side of town and a bit further south.

[Daniel*]

Let down of the year almost verging to the heartbreak of not getting a dusting of snow an amber warning but to no avail too much cloud it's a shame, the wait is on?

[stainesbloke]

1 hour ago, Mesoscale said:

France, Belgium, Germany and maybe Luxembourg get all the fun these days, I wonder if these same storm systems would have been the same types that would have affected the UK throughout the 80s and 90s? or are these storms something substantially different? 

Also did these Benelux countries and Germany get the same amount of storms as now or did they have different patterns of weather? If they did what has changed for the British weather?

So many questions though. 

The type of storms that affect the near continent in recent years certainly used to affect parts of the UK, mainly the S and SE in particular but not exclusively. I think France etc have always had these storms; imho what has changed for the UK is that we experience far less in the way of proper plumes that have at least several days of hot sun and reach further north than they do now. As to why? No real idea, could be the jet stream being too far south?

[Frosty hollows]

1 hour ago, Daniel* said:

Let down of the year almost verging to the heartbreak of not getting a dusting of snow an amber warning but to no avail too much cloud it's a shame, the wait is on?

Did you not have enough last night??

[Daniel*]

10 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:

Did you not have enough last night??

Yes got a hammering, perhaps I'm getting greedy I was alluding to this.

 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

6 hours ago, William Grimsley said:

Devon, because my place of living isn't decided by the weather?

No, but I think over the years, somewhere like Lincolnshire has had more storms in a one year period than Devon probably has had in 5, maybe more. You are never going to get the ingredients for supercell storms or thrilling surface based activity being surrounded by waters at 15 degrees. Just a simple fact! 

[Chris.R]

GFS has  wildly underestimated minima for last night in this area.  Already 5°C warmer than predicted. I'm thinking maybe the CAPE will be  greater than what is shown later on, providing of course we get enough insolation. 

[Greeny]

http://www.estofex.org/

Estofex has Ireland under a level 1. (they do state low end level 1 and no severe weather is expected)

Edited June 24, 2016 by Greeny
low end level 1

[William Grimsley]

3 hours ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

No, but I think over the years, somewhere like Lincolnshire has had more storms in a one year period than Devon probably has had in 5, maybe more. You are never going to get the ingredients for supercell storms or thrilling surface based activity being surrounded by waters at 15 degrees. Just a simple fact! 

I don't really care? As I said in my post which you quoted, my place of residence is not determined by the weather!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

5 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

I don't really care? As I said in my post which you quoted, my place of residence is not determined by the weather!

Never said it was! 

But I have noticed the IMBYism and overestimation in quite a few posts that you share on here, and then have the tendency to rule things out or underestimate other places at risk when Devon for example isn't featured in the risk zone. Just a bit of friendly criticism! 

[William Grimsley]

Give me all the evidence you can find on that! Anyway, back on topic...

[Windblade]

10 hours ago, Craigers said:

Amazing views from Doncaster!

Wow.