Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 11/06/16 onwards

[Noahjoe]

Cloud breaking very nicely down here on the south coast, hopefully bodes well for later on!

[Rw3991]

It's defiantly getting brighter here 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Sun trying here 

[Biggin]

Cloudy with light rain atm here.

[Mapantz]

3 minutes ago, Rw3991 said:

It's defiantly getting brighter here 

Satellite image shows this nicely..

[Windblade]

The sun was really trying a few minutes ago and almost came through but alas it seems to have gone again. Still, I'm not ruling anything out for later at all at this stage. Still a long way to go yet and still a good chance of imports.

[Flash Elvis]

Kent Clipper anybody??? 

[Mesoscale]

Just read on Twitter that a large tornado has killed over 50 people in the Chinese province of Jiangsu. Can't find anything on it yet but I shall keep an eye out. 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-36607600

Edited June 23, 2016 by Mesoscale

[Biggin]

18 minutes ago, Flash Elvis said:

Kent Clipper anybody??? 

[Flash Elvis]

Anybody from the IOW seeing anything from that cell bouncing across the channel?

 

[Martin Auld]

Looks like a pitch fork coming to Stab England 

[paul_montague]

2 minutes ago, Flash Elvis said:

Anybody from the IOW seeing anything from that cell bouncing across the channel?

 

Nothing as yet but will keep updates coming

[Norfolk Sheep]

20 minutes ago, Windblade said:

The sun was really trying a few minutes ago and almost came through but alas it seems to have gone again. Still, I'm not ruling anything out for later at all at this stage. Still a long way to go yet and still a good chance of imports.

Yep same here, honestly thought I might see sunshine just one day before 6pm! 

[Stormyking]

Hearing thunder again, getting closer! This would be a nice surpirse

[Nick F]

Severe drizzle here in south London 

[Windblade]

4 minutes ago, Norfolk Sheep said:

Yep same here, honestly thought I might see sunshine just one day before 6pm! 

Oh no! You too eh? Lol.

 

Its still looking pretty gloomy to my west but looks to be getting a little brighter to the east.

[Windblade]

7 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Severe drizzle here in south London 

Hi Nick. I'm in brixton at the moment and its very gloomy but no drizzle. Must be pretty localised at the moment as I gather you're not too far away?

 

EDIT - The drizzle has just arrived!

Edited June 23, 2016 by Windblade

[Methuselah]

18 minutes ago, Martin Auld said:

Looks like a pitch fork coming to Stab England 

Is that Missile Command? I know, I'm getting old!

[Fiona Robertson]

3 hours ago, Nick F said:

Storm & Convective Forecast

Issued 2016-06-23 09:54:51

Valid: 23/06/2016 06z to 24/06/2016 06z

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE / STORM FORECAST - THURS 23-JUNE-2016

Synopsis

Upper trough moving over EIRE today and extending south into western Iberia will drive a strong WAA regime across western Europe, band of storms have propagated NE overnight along the western periphery of a warm/moist plume from N Spain across NW France, SE UK and on into the Low Countries. The storms have developed where upper trough engages the plume's edge. Overnight storms have now cleared SE UK, but will re-develop this afternoon across SE England and E Anglia and may also be joined by further storms moving NE from the Bay of Biscay. Storms should clear out into the N Sea by early hours of Friday, as cold front clears east and introduces fresher conditions.

... SE UK ...

UKMO fax charts indicate slow-moving waving cold front will lie SW-NE from Weymouth to The Wash midday Thursday, ahead of this front – a warm/humid airmass characterised  by dew points of 16-19C / PWAT values of 1.2/ - 1.6 inches. Overnight thunderstorms that have cleared SE England and E Anglia have left a legacy of low cloud cover … but eventual cloud breaks will allow instability to rebuild as surface heating of humid airmass increases beneath steep mid-level lapse rates. GFS indicates 500-1000 j/kg CAPE across the above areas in the afternoon/early evening. Thunderstorms are indicated to redevelop as surface heating combines with approaching upper trough and surface convergence ahead of cold front to create forced ascent of humid airmass. Storms will form in an environment of veering and strengthening flow aloft that will be characterised by 40-50 knots of deep layer shear, so storms will likely organise quickly … initially a few supercells or bowing line segments are possible … though unidirectional winds aloft will tend to line out storms. Nonetheless, all severe weather hazards are possible from storms  … mainly the risk of isolated large hail (2-3cm diameter), damaging wind gusts, flash-flooding, frequent lightning and perhaps even a brief tornado where winds back SEly and increase SREH (Storm relative helicity).

Further storms, mainly elevated, downwind across the Bay of Biscay and NW France this morning may move NE across the far SE later too, brinigng a risk of flash-flooding, strong wind gusts, hail and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning.

Given uncertainty of how widespread storm development will be have issued a SLIGHT risk of severe weather for now, though may upgrade to MDT in later updates if organised severe storms become widespread.

… EIRE/N. IRELAND and SCOTLAND …

Atlantic upper trough axis moves in across Ireland and W Scotland on Thursday, associated cold mid-level temperatures will create steep lapse rates atop moist maritime surface airmass, with surface heating creating 200-500 j/kg CAPE in the afternoon – so scattered heavy showers and a few thunderstorms look likely to develop across the above areas. A few organised storms can’t be ruled out … producing a risk of hail, flash flooding and gusty winds locally … though modest instability and shear will limit severe risk.

 

Issued by: Nick Finnis

Yay!!! Go, Scotland! It's currently about 70F in the shade, the humidity is a killer and the midges are being vicious. Looks like the main risk is a wee bit to the north of me, but at least I have a chance now 

[Windblade]

Good luck Fiona. Hope you get to see some sparks 

[matt111]

Feels tropical here now. Warm and very humid with light rain falling. 

[Rw3991]

although it's not looking good atm let's keep the spirit up an hope things get going 

[tomp456]

Spitting with rain now. 

Sun has not come out all day. 

Today is a bust. 

[Cableguy]

Sferics in the channel off IOW dying out by the looks of it

[Flash Elvis]

Just now, Cableguy said:

Sferics in the channel off IOW dying out by the looks of it

I had just noticed that .... the cloud cover is killing everything I feel ....but hey still plenty of hours left in the day to give us another light show