Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 11/06/16 onwards

[Nick F]

12 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

the current state of play for lightning detections.....looks defo further west than modelled....hmm

Trajectory of current storms would still take them mainly east of IoW in my opinion with NEly steering flow ... though depends on whether new cells can erupt father NW.

Thunder being reported in Guernsey now.

[suffolkboy_]

Anyone come across this on Metcheck before?

http://www.metcheck.com/SEASONAL/thunderstorm_satellite.asp

It claims to show where storms are developing/decaying by looking at cloud top temperatures and vertical velocity.

[MP-R]

I can confirm convective drizzle and high humidity here as that cold front peps up.

[William Grimsley]

Anyone got Altocumulus Castellanus cloud yet?

[Biggin]

54 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Can't believe there's been a westward shift! That is literally due to me posting earlier about the models always shifting everything East. Sod's law!

 

Not that i'm complaining;)

Convective Weather agree with your earlier post

 

"UPDATE 12:03 UTC No changes made to the forecast for now - still large amount of uncertainty over spatial extent of thunderstorms tonight, as is to be expected given the setup, but overall current thoughts remain in-line with previous forecast issuance. If anything, recent trends in guidance so far today has shifted forecast activity marginally farther SE, and so a slight trim to the western side of the MDT may be required. Still also a low risk of an isolated thunderstorm developing over Lincs/E Anglia this afternoon"

 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/

[Biggin]

28 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Trajectory of current storms would still take them mainly east of IoW in my opinion with NEly steering flow ... though depends on whether new cells can erupt father NW.

Thunder being reported in Guernsey now.

Yep I make you right Nick.

[William Grimsley]

So, they'll definitely be thunderstorms over SE England tonight, but what's the chances of an MCS?

However, it looks like they're starting to head more eastward once again...

Edited June 22, 2016 by William Grimsley

[NO LONGER POSTING]

certainly activity over North France increasing early days

[paul_montague]

Now a case of Radar watching. Good luck to all in the firing line.

 

[Harry]

I have to emphasise that we should not just be looking for action to kick off over N France and growing disheartened if the Brest peninsula isn't lighting up like the 5th November...different models have suggested rapid development of thunderstorms over the Channel or indeed over the UK mainland, possibly well after sunset. Patience will most certainly be order of the day - so should anyone start posting doom and gloom melancholia, I shall be inclined to report you to the Feds, sorry, Mods

Notwithstanding the ConvectiveWeather.co.uk noon update, over the past several hours the MetO precip forecast model has been slowly bringing outbreaks more N and W bit by bit, so still early days.

Edited June 22, 2016 by Harry

[Harry]

Some may find this interesting from Meteociel website...note the area of amber compared to yellow.....

[stainesbloke]

Well it does appear that projected thundery activity may have shifted slightly westwards, very unusual for so close to the 'event'. Very muggy here, temps average with heavy cloud cover. 

[William Grimsley]

Looks like Dorset eastward is where the chance is now looking at the latest observations, I really hope nothing moves over East Devon, I'll be gutted. LOL.

[titchjuicy]

Question from a newbie regarding Central London. Does the urban heat island effect have the opposite effect in these kind of situations than it does in the winter?

Whereas in the winter the slightly higher temps can have an effect on snowfall; at times like these can it encourage more intense storms?

 

Thanks

[William Grimsley]

Just imagine if the upper wind was SE - NW tonight, I'd be getting excited.

Edited June 22, 2016 by William Grimsley

[Buckster76]

Feels very very humid here in Essex

 

Looking forward to it going proper bang later ☺

[William Grimsley]

The sky looks quite unstable on my Nest cam live stream now.

Has anyone got Altocumulus Castellanus cloud yet?

Edited June 22, 2016 by William Grimsley

[paul_montague]

Very humid now. Lets hope something goes bang soon.

 

[West Sussex Kate]

Very warm here in Sussex. 

Edited June 22, 2016 by West Sussex Kate

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

Skies are now clearing in Essex

[toggerob]

It's quite a stretch for me, but if the cloud tops out towards Norwich are substantial enough and there's clear skies ahead there may just be a chance, with a clear view out to the south, in looking for anvil-strikes or the possibility of sprites. At 150-miles though it's probably unlikely but it'll take anything I can get from these storms.

[William Grimsley]

Massive bank of Altocumulus Castellanus cloud overhead at home! https://i.gyazo.com/7c11cf0993d31d34f9720951f90899f4.png

[Mesoscale]

I have some nice comparisons here,

So this was July 3rd 2015, that night we had one of the best thunderstorms I have ever seen in the UK.



And here is todays sky...



I might be eating my words later........ 

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

1 minute ago, Mesoscale said:

I have some nice comparisons here,

So this was July 3rd 2015, that night we had one of the best thunderstorms I have ever seen in the UK.



And here is todays sky...



I might be eating my words later........ 

 

For hinting at a comparison and potential for development or playing down the chances earlier? I'm not sure which one lol

[Wivenswold]

1 hour ago, William Grimsley said:

So, they'll definitely be thunderstorms over SE England tonight, but what's the chances of an MCS?

However, it looks like they're starting to head more eastward once again...

I like your youthful exuberance but it's that type of comment that leads to disappointment. There won't "definitely" be thunderstorms over the SE, there's a risk. 

The UK is not an ideal location for storms but they do occur from time to time. But every time a risk is forecast we then have days of pointless complaining that people didn't see lightning and that the weather here is disappointing. It's not, it's just UK weather doing what it does.