Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 11/06/16 onwards

[Harry]

3 minutes ago, Windblade said:

I'm not so sure about that Harry. The charts and forecast looks good for our area imo with a wide region of instability that can sustain both imports and possibly develop new storms right over us. If those imports are fast moving and get across the channel quickly, the airmass and moisture over us should sustain them imo. As there is talk of possible supercells these storms will be huge and cover a vast area, even if they don't develop into supercells the potential is there for huge far spreading storms imo. I don't want to build up any false hopes and its essential to remain grounded in these matters but personally just in my own opinion I think we're in for a wild night.

Very true, however I'm basing my expectations on a median point of all the various models (which on closer inspection diverge quite significantly). Some initiate storms very early and then repeatedly through the night, others develop very isolated cells in the night followed by an MCS around 06z-07z onwards, while others are keen to keep the bulk of the storm activity (take MetO rainfall projections as an example) south of line say from Brighton to Rochester.

Exciting period coming up, but as should be expected the models are struggling with the detail (albeit the broader consensus is about there)

[A.J]

over here it's claggy....20C, muggy with total cloud cover with low bases, typical warm sector muck....still probably too far west to see anything (70 miles west of London) but I live in hope!

[Harry]

Interestingly, the latest FAX chart shows the warm sector staying in place beyond 00z Friday...this is a decent improvement on previous charts.

Edited June 22, 2016 by Harry

[Lauren]

I am, as ever, remaining unexcited. Been burned far too many times with better set-ups than this.

 

If it happens though, then I'll party

[Methuselah]

Just to get y'all warmed up: 

 

[Mapantz]

2 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

over here it's claggy....20C, muggy with total cloud cover with low bases, typical warm sector muck....still probably too far west to see anything (70 miles west of London) but I live in hope!

A nice bit of sunshine down here aj! The dewpoint getting close to 17°C now..

I'm starting to wonder of the SR NetWx model could be on to something?

[Stormyking]

9 minutes ago, Harry said:

The difficulty will be, I suspect, that initial storms are more or less modelled to erupt around or just off the coast of Kent/E Sussex. Thereafter it looks as if storms will develop further west of that general zone, meaning that there is a risk you could stay put waiting for that eventuality (and they stay further east) or you could move east, never quite catch them and then they develop over your patch. 

Personally I am staying put and hoping for the best, but then I am on the edge (wrong side) of Dan's 'moderate' and the MetO's amber so am hopeful of catching at least some peripheral storms, but not expecting to enjoy the main feast.

If the storms do develop west of that general zone then the area im in isn't too bad, I also live on the East Coast of the Isle of Wight, which is in the risk zone quite nicely, but again its the fact of being on an island is the annoying, i got a feeling we are probably gonna stay put unless the 12z does shift it a bit further East

 

11 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

What were your initial plans? I would still hop over to the mainland, and head to Bognor Regis, and then keep track on the radar.

We have had 2 things in mind for our initial plans, orginaly we were gonna drive down towards Brighton/Hastings area, but the last few runs we have  been thinking of just staying here. Driving to Bognor Regis wouldn't be a bad shout as it isn't far from the Island, its obviously ferry prices we also need to take into account just incase the island does get soem storms

[Harry]

2 minutes ago, Stormyking said:

If the storms do develop west of that general zone then the area im in isn't too bad, I also live on the East Coast of the Isle of Wight, which is in the risk zone quite nicely, but again its the fact of being on an island is the annoying, i got a feeling we are probably gonna stay put unless the 12z does shift it a bit further East

 

We have had 2 things in mind for our initial plans, orginaly we were gonna drive down towards Brighton/Hastings area, but the last few runs we have  been thinking of just staying here. Driving to Bognor Regis wouldn't be a bad shout as it isn't far from the Island, its obviously ferry prices we also need to take into account just incase the island does get soem storms

I know tell me about it   

Edited June 22, 2016 by Harry

[A.J]

3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

A nice bit of sunshine down here aj! The dewpoint getting close to 17°C now..

I'm starting to wonder of the SR NetWx model could be on to something?

certainly food for thought mate.....I'm 50 miles away from you, just east of due north.....still only an outside chance for my neck of the woods, but will certainly keep an eye on the radar, and for folks further east (say Reading eastwards & down to southampton, I'd be getting rather excited at the prospects!)

[paul_montague]

4 minutes ago, Stormyking said:

If the storms do develop west of that general zone then the area im in isn't too bad, I also live on the East Coast of the Isle of Wight, which is in the risk zone quite nicely, but again its the fact of being on an island is the annoying, i got a feeling we are probably gonna stay put unless the 12z does shift it a bit further East

 

We have had 2 things in mind for our initial plans, orginaly we were gonna drive down towards Brighton/Hastings area, but the last few runs we have  been thinking of just staying here. Driving to Bognor Regis wouldn't be a bad shout as it isn't far from the Island, its obviously ferry prices we also need to take into account just incase the island does get soem storms

Going to head down to my usual viewpoint near Sandown and look out to sea later. The Wightlink pirates really love to fleece us 

[Mesoscale]

My parents are on a P&O cruise to Belgium tonight from Southampton, I bet they will be getting a good show! 

[William Grimsley]

All I'm going to say is models are pointless now, just wait and see what happens! Good luck, everyone!

[Stormyking]

3 minutes ago, paul_montague said:

Going to head down to my usual viewpoint near Sandown and look out to sea later. The Wightlink pirates really love to fleece us 

You know that, prices are just too much its ridiculous! Red funnel is no better either!

Knowing us if we stay it will be our trust spot up on Culver downs, get a very good view of Bognor up there!

[Azazel]

Can't believe there's been a westward shift! That is literally due to me posting earlier about the models always shifting everything East. Sod's law!

 

Not that i'm complaining;)

[anything-but]

Times like this i'm glad i have a south facing window with a clear view from due east to due west!

Charge up those cameras people, could be a good 'un.

 

[SnowJoke]

4 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Can't believe there's been a westward shift! That is literally due to me posting earlier about the models always shifting everything East. Sod's law!

 

Not that i'm complaining;)

I did say in an earlier post, it looked much better than other setups due to the weak Jet not tearing everything apart or pushing it away into Benelux. Upper steering winds are backed much more strongly than forecast which will also help everything form further west and push NNE instead of eastward.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Must not get hopes up.. must wait 

 

 

[William Grimsley]

Quite humid here in Cornwall, just been looking at the dew points over the SE! Crazy!

Edited June 22, 2016 by William Grimsley

[Nick F]

06z Arpege (French model) suggests east of a line from IoW to Norwich in for a shout tonight ... ties in with what GFS is showing

NMM furthest west, but does show increased backing of the 500mb flow later this evening, so this maybe why its bringing storms further NW than other models.

As always with plume situations, models can have difficulty handling storm coverage and extent, so will be a case of nowcasting ...

[Methuselah]

17 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

All I'm going to say is models are pointless now, just wait and see what happens! Good luck, everyone!

How can you say that, Will  -  without the models we be all be a'guessin'?

[A.J]

the current state of play for lightning detections.....looks defo further west than modelled....hmm

[William Grimsley]

Just now, Ed Stone said:

How can you say that, Will  -  without the models we be all be a'guessin'?

Models are good up until about 1 day before then they're all over the place. LOL.

[MP-R]

10 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

Quite humid here in Cornwall, just been looking at the dew points over the SE! Crazy!

Dewpoint of 17C here currently, certainly humid enough! Humidity at 85% but very grey indeed.

[Nick F]

12z HIRLAM indicates perhaps 2 waves of storms. 1 late evening then another from 5/6am across the far SE ...

21z and 00z

03z and 06z Thurs

[TheToastPeople]

Thinking of driving down to dungeness power station, great view out to sea from there. Will be tricky with the 9am start at work tomorow though lol