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Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 11/06/16 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight

E

27 minutes ago, Speedway Slider said:

Where's this stuff coming from? Actually, I mean where is it's birthplace? I have attached a screen grab from Blitzortung which shows some thunderstorm/s activity exiting the Bay of Biscay, is that the focal point of where this potentially severe weather is coming from??

Thanks in advance....Screenshot_2016-06-22-12-56-12.png

Nice area of Elevated storms in the bay of biscay for sure, once they hit land there gonna turn into some proper surface based beasts for time, damn wish I was there!

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Posted
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny with night time t-storms
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
2 minutes ago, Stormyking said:

E

Nice area of Elevated storms in the bay of biscay for sure, once they hit land there gonna turn into some proper surface based beasts for time, damn wish I was there!

Careful what you wish for - I'm happy to be well south of that lot. The golf balls could be flying up there tonight! I've a couple of friends in Normandie who'll keep me updated, and I pass on anything significant.

Whatever of any of you decide to do regarding chasing - just stay safe...

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Posted
  • Location: Lochmaben Dumfries & Galloway
  • Weather Preferences: Spicy weather
  • Location: Lochmaben Dumfries & Galloway

wow. Looks brilliant for SE tomorrow afternoon/evening for storms according to Meteox.  Am jealous :angry: Hope no-one gets hurt but hope everybody has a stonkin good time watching. Hope to see videos :D 

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Posted
  • Location: Staines upon Thames Surrey
  • Location: Staines upon Thames Surrey
18 minutes ago, Odd Spot said:

Looks quite dark looking on this cam with some strikes showing, and I assume it is part of what's heading towards the SE later

http://www.viewsurf.com/univers/plage/vue/12824-france-pays-de-la-loire-la-baule-escoublac-live

Some great convection going on there..... Great webcam

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Posted
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
33 minutes ago, Stormyking said:

Sure thing mate, we are making our final decisions based on the 12z updates, not over sure where we would go for definite

This is the problem I have haha as we gotta take into consideration of the ferry cost, however we are thinking of the Brighton area. Saying that though some of the latest High rez updates have made things more awkward, quite a few of them have now put the stuff smack bang over the island! This is givng me a headache!

Should be leaving the house at about 9:30 have got a good veiwing spot about 10 mins away from me on the Ashdown forest. If it looks like they are going east of me I might head down to Hastings. 

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Posted
  • Location: Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Anything even slightly exciting & less Vanilla.
  • Location: Kent

On the forecasts I've seen the storms are likely to start kicking off in the Kent/E. Sussex area from around 18,00.

I don't think these ones are in Brest but rather will grow rapidly over N France before crossing the Channel.

 

Edited by TN26
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Posted
  • Location: Chesterfield, North Derbyshire.
  • Location: Chesterfield, North Derbyshire.
24 minutes ago, Gary Alan Cowee said:

Some great convection going on there..... Great webcam

Yes it is a good site for webcams on the coasts around France

 

The Hastings webcam could make for good viewing tonight. Remember to adjust the settings to HD

http://www.beaming.biz/company/hastings-pier-webcam/

 

And maybe depending which direction the area of storms goes is the Bognor Regis one which has sound

http://www.bognorregisbeach.co.uk/live

 

Edited by Odd Spot
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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

interesting....06z NMM hi-res pushes the risk of certainly heavy rain considerably further west (somerset/wilts/dorset eastwards) both tonight and tomorrow......and yes some bright echoes starting to appear over NW France heading NNE ..

screen.png

Edited by ajpoolshark
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Posted
  • Location: Livingston (ish)
  • Location: Livingston (ish)
4 hours ago, Martin Auld said:

I had this MCS in the early hours of July 2nd 2015 seems like the same thing might happen tonight in the south east of England so good luck to anyone down there it could be quite the spectacleimage.jpgimage.jpg

You got me all excited there until I noticed the date... sigh

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Posted
  • Location: Staines upon Thames Surrey
  • Location: Staines upon Thames Surrey
3 minutes ago, Odd Spot said:

Yes it is a good site for webcams on the coasts around France

 

The Hastings webcam could make for good viewing tonight. Remember to adjust the settings to HD

http://www.beaming.biz/company/hastings-pier-webcam/

 

And the Bognor Regis one which has sound

http://www.bognorregisbeach.co.uk/live

 

Thanks for the links:D

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Posted
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, rain, tornados, funnel clouds and the northern lights
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent

Bit late to the party today but just took a look at the forecast. Oh yes, it looks like we're going to get some proper mcs at last! Bring it on! Also the mention of supercells gets the heart beating a little faster! Might be in for some tornados. As always trying not to get hopes up too much but it's looking better for the next 48 hours than its done for years. Lets see what happens.

Edited by Windblade
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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

Brighton seems to be the storm capital of the UK these days, so I would go there if I was chasing.

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Posted
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, rain, tornados, funnel clouds and the northern lights
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent
18 minutes ago, TN26 said:

On the forecasts I've seen the storms are likely to start kicking off in the Kent/E. Sussex area from around 18,00.

I don't think these ones are in Brest but rather will grow rapidly over N France before crossing the Channel.

 

Post is messed up and is not showing the video but that looks like a real nice storm and I'd love to have been there.

Edited by Windblade
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Posted
  • Location: Clacton-on-Sea, Essex
  • Location: Clacton-on-Sea, Essex
2 minutes ago, Staffordshire said:

The meto graphics have something over the midlands this evening. Can't really see where that potential is coming from, can anyone shed some light?

Seems like the risk is transferring further west with time so much more of the UK could be affected.  Don't quote me on that but it does seem steering winds are more backed than originally thought.

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Posted
  • Location: Bethnal Green, East London
  • Weather Preferences: Storms of any kind, Snow
  • Location: Bethnal Green, East London
16 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Brighton seems to be the storm capital of the UK these days, so I would go there if I was chasing.

You think so? I suppose we haven't done too badly this year so far, nothing of much significance so far though. We haven't had anything big down here since the whole July 2014 event and I was away for that!

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
4 minutes ago, fujita5 said:

Seems like the risk is transferring further west with time so much more of the UK could be affected.  Don't quote me on that but it does seem steering winds are more backed than originally thought.

I'd agree with that, seems to be the general trend being spat out of the models - relatively marginal so I wouldn't expect any change to the current warning areas issued, but if you are in a 'slight' or 'low' area then perhaps the odds have slightly improved.

One thing is for sure I might be a bit scared of falling asleep tonight in case I miss anything. Strikes me (pun, sorry) that any storms could develop extremely rapidly, with some cells being imported while others will erupt overhead in a very short space of time.

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Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
12 minutes ago, Staffordshire said:

The meto graphics have something over the midlands this evening. Can't really see where that potential is coming from, can anyone shed some light?

Is it along the cold front moving in?

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Posted
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight
7 minutes ago, Harry said:

I'd agree with that, seems to be the general trend being spat out of the models - relatively marginal so I wouldn't expect any change to the current warning areas issued, but if you are in a 'slight' or 'low' area then perhaps the odds have slightly improved.

One thing is for sure I might be a bit scared of falling asleep tonight in case I miss anything. Strikes me (pun, sorry) that any storms could develop extremely rapidly, with some cells being imported while others will erupt overhead in a very short space of time.

The fact its been tracking a bit further west in the last few runs, is making me wander if there is any point in going anywhere and just staying where I am. final decision is all down to the 12z I guess.

And I know for a fact I wont be sleeping tonight haha

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Posted
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, rain, tornados, funnel clouds and the northern lights
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent

I'm staying put. Looks like there's a good chance of something coming to me. Besides, I'm still suffering with a cracked rib (motorcycle accident, detailed in my status update if anyone's interested) so chasing is going to be too much for me at the moment. I'm only just making it into work by driving very gently. I think I'll leave the curtains drawn and the window open tonight so I can hear if anythings approaching. Might not get much sleep tonight if we get a decent storm as I'm going to be watching it!

Edited by Windblade
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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
3 minutes ago, Stormyking said:

The fact its been tracking a bit further west in the last few runs, is making me wander if there is any point in going anywhere and just staying where I am. final decision is all down to the 12z I guess.

And I know for a fact I wont be sleeping tonight haha

The difficulty will be, I suspect, that initial storms are more or less modelled to erupt around or just off the coast of Kent/E Sussex. Thereafter it looks as if storms will develop further west of that general zone, meaning that there is a risk you could stay put waiting for that eventuality (and they stay further east) or you could move east, never quite catch them and then they develop over your patch. 

Personally I am staying put and hoping for the best, but then I am on the edge (wrong side) of Dan's 'moderate' and the MetO's amber so am hopeful of catching at least some peripheral storms, but not expecting to enjoy the main feast.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
7 minutes ago, Stormyking said:

The fact its been tracking a bit further west in the last few runs, is making me wander if there is any point in going anywhere and just staying where I am. final decision is all down to the 12z I guess.

And I know for a fact I wont be sleeping tonight haha

What were your initial plans? I would still hop over to the mainland, and head to Bognor Regis, and then keep track on the radar.

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Posted
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, rain, tornados, funnel clouds and the northern lights
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent
5 minutes ago, Harry said:

The difficulty will be, I suspect, that initial storms are more or less modelled to erupt around or just off the coast of Kent/E Sussex. Thereafter it looks as if storms will develop further west of that general zone, meaning that there is a risk you could stay put waiting for that eventuality (and they stay further east) or you could move east, never quite catch them and then they develop over your patch. 

Personally I am staying put and hoping for the best, but then I am on the edge (wrong side) of Dan's 'moderate' and the MetO's amber so am hopeful of catching at least some peripheral storms, but not expecting to enjoy the main feast.

I'm not so sure about that Harry. The charts and forecast looks good for our area imo with a wide region of instability that can sustain both imports and possibly develop new storms right over us. If those imports are fast moving and get across the channel quickly, the airmass and moisture over us should sustain them imo. As there is talk of possible supercells these storms will be huge and cover a vast area, even if they don't develop into supercells the potential is there for huge far spreading storms imo. I don't want to build up any false hopes and its essential to remain grounded in these matters but personally just in my own opinion I think we're in for a wild night.

Edited by Windblade
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Posted
  • Location: Hilversum, Netherlands
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Sun, Deep Snow, Convective Goodness, Anvil Crawlers
  • Location: Hilversum, Netherlands

debating whether to head towards the east Thames estuary or just sit tight and let it come to me. Going to be a radar job tonight I think. Pretty opressive in London this afternoon.

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