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Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 11/06/16 onwards

Supacell

By Supacell
in Storms & Severe Weather

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Stormyking Rising Star

Stormyking

Posted
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight
Posted
7 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Zoiks!  scare3.gif 

2016-06-21 (3).png viewimage.png

I like this :D And I like Estofex too 

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Greeny Aficionado

Greeny

Posted
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny, stormy and I don't dislike rain only cold
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Can someone explain what absolute vorticity means?

Some good info on vorticity within the below link..

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/charts/500/basics/

Edit: also click links to other pages for more info

Edited by Greeny
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Ben Sainsbury Accomplished

Ben Sainsbury

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
Posted
1 minute ago, Stormyking said:

I like this :D And I like Estofex too 

Considering it's my birthday on the Thursday too! Birthday MCS ayee? Exciting times ahead for SE'ers.

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NUT Accomplished

NUT

Posted
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
Posted

My other half's near Guildford. I wonder if she might get something Juicy (looks like it)

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted
3 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Considering it's my birthday on the Thursday too! Birthday MCS ayee? Exciting times ahead for SE'ers.

Mine is on Sunday. Strangely, this is what I wished for when I blew out last years candles..

2016-06-21 (4).png

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alexisj9 Maestro

alexisj9

Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
Posted
28 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Could you imagine... LOL!

LOL.png

Is that text box for real?

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Stormyking Rising Star

Stormyking

Posted
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight
Posted
39 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Considering it's my birthday on the Thursday too! Birthday MCS ayee? Exciting times ahead for SE'ers.

You never know mate, that would be a pretty decent birthday present eh.  Ive got everything crossed!

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Ben Sainsbury Accomplished

Ben Sainsbury

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
Posted
Just now, alexisj9 said:

Is that text box for real?

No no, I've edited it aha! Sorry I didn't make it very clear!

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Hodgheg Community Regular

Hodgheg

Posted
  • Location: Near Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Severe storms and heavy snow
  • Location: Near Hull
Posted

Its these kind of things that make me glad i now live in the south east! Oh well off to bed. Fingers crossed for everyone tomorrow. 

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alexisj9 Maestro

alexisj9

Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
Posted

lol no worries was thinking the BBC wouldn't use that language, no one would understand what they were saying.

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Hodgheg Community Regular

Hodgheg

Posted
  • Location: Near Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Severe storms and heavy snow
  • Location: Near Hull
Posted

Well at least if we get a good storm tomorrow night, it'll be a lot more interesting than watching the referendum results. 

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alexisj9 Maestro

alexisj9

Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
Posted
3 minutes ago, John Hodgson said:

Well at least if we get a good storm tomorrow night, it'll be a lot more interesting than watching the referendum results. 

I just hope they don't interfere with the electric to much, would like to watch some american streams tomorrow, unless there weather is to destructive, in which case I won't want to watch it.

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Blake Explorer

Blake

Posted
  • Location: Hastings (Seafront)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Hastings (Seafront)
Posted (edited)

Haven't been on here since relocating to Hastings 3 months ago. I shall spend tomorrow evening from around 4pn under Bottle Alley on the seafront as the storms roll in. Unobstructed views out to sea. One of the reasons I moved here was because this area often gets decent convection.

 

Edited by Blake
Typo
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Mesoscale Rising Star

Mesoscale

Posted
  • Location: Watford, Hertfordshire, 68.7m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Humid Continental Climate (Dfa / Dfb)
  • Location: Watford, Hertfordshire, 68.7m ASL
Posted

Have you guys forgotten we live in the UK? Somebody asked earlier why people were being so pessimistic and the answer... Look at how many times we get great forecasts like this and they don't verify. My personal forecast (not scientific) is, a large band of rain moves over the SE with occasional lightning but most if not all storms staying in northern France and Belgium. I would love to be wrong but any good activity will not be wide spread as suggested. This is my personal opinion.

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Cableguy Enthusiast

Cableguy

Posted
  • Location: West Byfleet, Surrey
  • Location: West Byfleet, Surrey
Posted

Looking good for those people down in Kent/East Sussex this evening/overnight might have to jump in the car to see anything myself.

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matty40s Maestro

matty40s

Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
Posted

Quite humid in the Northampton area already, with fat raindrops pelting me as I moved the boat to a new more scenic mooring.

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted (edited)

Thinking I could be on the periphery tonight - difficult to call to be honest.

UKMO rainfall projections keeping it very much across E Sussex/Kent, whereas yesterday much of the SE quadrant was projected to get pummelled.

WRF-NMM keen to smother much of the SE quarter, even if only temporarily, in reasonably high CAPE, with convective outbreaks maybe reaching London and parts of EA.

 

Edited by Harry
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weather09 Aficionado

weather09

Posted
  • Location: Birmingham
  • Location: Birmingham
Posted
5 hours ago, Mesoscale said:

Have you guys forgotten we live in the UK? Somebody asked earlier why people were being so pessimistic and the answer... Look at how many times we get great forecasts like this and they don't verify. My personal forecast (not scientific) is, a large band of rain moves over the SE with occasional lightning but most if not all storms staying in northern France and Belgium. I would love to be wrong but any good activity will not be wide spread as suggested. This is my personal opinion.

Ah, well there you have it.  Forget your reasoning and forecasting, everyone. It appears mother nature is discriminating against certain nations to bring exciting weather.  

No-one has said that any activity is going be widespread.

Your personal opinion has no reasoning to back it up. ".a large band of rain moves over the SE with occasional lightning".  Really?

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William Grimsley Seasoned

William Grimsley

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted
10 hours ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Even if this is the case, hopefully we could see some very interesting structures, we shall see tho! I'm in Bath so the further east the better! :D

I thought you were in Torquay?

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NO LONGER POSTING Veteran

NO LONGER POSTING

Posted
Posted

Its all to play for, whether it be jUst Kent the channel or a wider area there is great model diffrence this morning and they can't get to grips.

Until it happens we won't know for sure what's going to happen, that's the beauty of this beast.

For me, I would say yes eastern areas are the favoured spots.

 

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William Grimsley Seasoned

William Grimsley

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted
5 hours ago, Mesoscale said:

Have you guys forgotten we live in the UK? Somebody asked earlier why people were being so pessimistic and the answer... Look at how many times we get great forecasts like this and they don't verify. My personal forecast (not scientific) is, a large band of rain moves over the SE with occasional lightning but most if not all storms staying in northern France and Belgium. I would love to be wrong but any good activity will not be wide spread as suggested. This is my personal opinion.

I have to agree with W09, here. Where have you got this from? Just looks like some mashed up rubbish to me.

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Azazel Veteran

Azazel

Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
Posted

I agree with Mesoscale looking at some charts this morning.

 

We've just seen this so many times in recent summers. GFS always seems to shift things East as the time draws closer and the Benelux countries get a pounding while the South Eastern corner of the country MAY catch the North Western tip of any MCS that does form over France.

We then get left with the clag and murk which will inhibit homegrown convection tomorrow.

 

Hope i'm wrong but i'm quite confident.

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William Grimsley Seasoned

William Grimsley

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted (edited)

Oh, Azazel, unfortunately I don't agree with your statement, there is no such thing as "We've seen this so many times in recent summers". It doesn't matter what Summer we're in, it's just that recently parameters have not been good enough to sustain MCS development over the UK, nothing to do with the year, it's to do with that. I have good confidence that at least thunderstorms with a certain degree of MCS development will move across Kent this evening, there's already thunderstorms in France so will be quite interesting to see what happens later.

Edited by William Grimsley
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