Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 11/06/16 onwards

[Supacell]

It's been an active start to summer with some good thunderstorms to see us into June. This past week has been characterised by a lot of warm, humid, sunny weather and an almost daily scattering of thunderstorms, some of which have been disruptive.  It looks like more to come through this weekend and into next week too. Again we are probably looking at a daily supply of them. Of course much like last week some of us will see them and some of us will not. Either way, summer 2016 has opened with a bang for a few of us.

The old thread can be seen here. Some useful posts and thoughts in here relating to the upcoming convective weather.

Please continue on and good luck to all those that want the storms. The upcoming period is likely to be busy and this thread is likely to build up quickly, please therefore try to keep your posts on topic  
 

Edited June 10, 2016 by Supacell

[Utahraptor]

I had to reupload my video of monday/tuesdays storm because I found a CG in the raw video that I somehow overlooked while editing...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rghgypGSkDE

[Mapantz]

One can hope!   

[Arnie Pie]

Staffordshire

"I actually didn't end up getting back untill about 6:45 due to a delayed train service... The main road back Into burntwood was flooded so I thought I may try the lanes... Even worse. A bit frustrating I wasn't there to witness an actual storm however"

The law of Sod was definitely working for both of us yesterday.....although seeing a long, bright bolt flash across the back of town, I realised that when i had re-positioned my camcorder to cover the skyline.....I neglected to press the record button again  [school boy error]

Still.....Thankfully at least we are seeing some action around these parts( or not in your case ).....and another chance tomorrow

 

Edited June 11, 2016 by Arnie Pie

[Gordon Webb]

metoffice office have issued warnngs again for today and the northern part of the west midlands is included as well but as expected in the warnings is that most places are expected to miss the worst and no mention of hazards of or frequent lightning as you sometimes see in these warnings which seems to suggest heavy downpours and thunder here and there

Edited June 11, 2016 by Gordon Webb

[Eye to the sky]

Biblical rain on the way to work just now,windscreen wipers couldn't cope.Very localised though.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Sun breaking through here, in fact if you look at the SAT I am not sure whether it is a coincidence or the MET already hit the money with their warning today..

 

The cloud is breaking almost perfectly in the areas highlighted greatest at risk from a Shower or T storm today.. 

 

 

[Shane Wheeldon]

I see Telford is in the met office warnings today. It will be the only time i will say this but i dont want any storms or rain today! Get married in just over 6 hours. So between 3 and 5 i would like it to stay dry. So Telford storm sheild i say this, please remain on the fullest of power, divert storms to Shrewsbury and the west midlands! 

[Gordon Webb]

7 minutes ago, Shane Wheeldon said:

I see Telford is in the met office warnings today. It will be the only time i will say this but i dont want any storms or rain today! Get married in just over 6 hours. So between 3 and 5 i would like it to stay dry. So Telford storm sheild i say this, please remain on the fullest of power, divert storms to Shrewsbury and the west midlands! 

well the warming do emphasise that most will miss the worst and a lot will dpend of how much and long long cloud breaks last for and did you say you are getiing married if so CONGRATULATIONS

[Darren Bown]

ESTOFEX level 1 for England, not seen that for a while!

[Gordon Webb]

3 minutes ago, Darren Bown said:

ESTOFEX level 1 for England, not seen that for a while!

bit specifi to the UK

...British Isles...

Slowly moving thunderstorms in the environment of weak CAPE and shear but moist vertical profile (PW > 30mm) are expected to develop due to diurnal heating. Thanks to PVA in the evening hours, their potential in producing heavy precipitation may be maintained until evening hours, thus creating a local threat for excessive precipitation, especially in N England.

doesn't tell anything we didn't already know

not a huge amount of cape so storms won't be everywhere

not a lot of shear so storms won't be organised

but a moisture vertical profile so plenty of rain

 

Edited June 11, 2016 by Gordon Webb

[Summer Sun]

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 11 Jun 2016 - 05:59 UTC Sun 12 Jun 2016

ISSUED 21:02 UTC Fri 10 Jun 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

Shortwave trough will slowly migrate NE-wards across the British Isles on Saturday. At the surface, a warm, moist airmass will be present, characterised by dewpoints in the low-to-mid teens Celsius, which when heated by strong insolation will yield some 200-300 Jkg-1 MLCAPE. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are likely to develop along areas of wind-convergence, persisting into the evening hours before weakening in intensity overnight.

Question marks surround how extensive cloud cover may be, and its ultimate affect on quality of insolation which may inhibit convection in some areas. For now we issue a broad low-end SLGT, but it is possible this may need to be shrunk locally. Main threats will be from local flash flooding given slow-moving heavy downpours.

Falling heights over/behind the approaching Atlantic occlusion and strengthening DLS may also allow a cluster/line of convection to develop on Saturday night, sliding across S Ireland and extended towards Pembrokeshire/SW England towards 6z Sunday. Have extended the LOW threat area to cover this risk, but there may be potential to upgrade to SLGT if lightning activity proves to be significant - too much uncertainty for now.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-06-11

[Gordon Webb]

5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 11 Jun 2016 - 05:59 UTC Sun 12 Jun 2016

ISSUED 21:02 UTC Fri 10 Jun 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

Shortwave trough will slowly migrate NE-wards across the British Isles on Saturday. At the surface, a warm, moist airmass will be present, characterised by dewpoints in the low-to-mid teens Celsius, which when heated by strong insolation will yield some 200-300 Jkg-1 MLCAPE. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are likely to develop along areas of wind-convergence, persisting into the evening hours before weakening in intensity overnight.

Question marks surround how extensive cloud cover may be, and its ultimate affect on quality of insolation which may inhibit convection in some areas. For now we issue a broad low-end SLGT, but it is possible this may need to be shrunk locally. Main threats will be from local flash flooding given slow-moving heavy downpours.

Falling heights over/behind the approaching Atlantic occlusion and strengthening DLS may also allow a cluster/line of convection to develop on Saturday night, sliding across S Ireland and extended towards Pembrokeshire/SW England towards 6z Sunday. Have extended the LOW threat area to cover this risk, but there may be potential to upgrade to SLGT if lightning activity proves to be significant - too much uncertainty for now.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-06-11

There are a lot of IF's in all these forecasts , a lot of places aint going to see this type of weather and ones that do , the greatest threat is the rainfall , not sure how prolific T & L will be no forecast gives that a lot of prominence

 

Edited June 11, 2016 by Gordon Webb

[Supacell]

8 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

There are a lot of IF's in all these forecasts , a lot of places aint going to see this type of weather and ones that do , the greatest threat is the rainfall , not sure how prolific T & L will be no forecast gives that a lot of prominence

 

I think today looks quite similar to yesterday, the caveat being a little more cloud which may subdue the development of storms somewhat. As you say the greatest threat will be rainfall though. Some areas have already had a deluge and so the ground is saturated in parts. 

[Nick F]

Storm & Convective Forecast

Issued 2016-06-11 08:17:28

Valid: 11/06/2016 06z to 12/06/2016 06z

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE FORECAST - SAT 11TH-JUNE-2016

Synopsis

The UK and Ireland will be on the edge of cyclonic upper flow ahead of upper low over the N Atlantic, a shortwave trough ejecting E and NE ahead of this upper low will cross the UK today, with a trailing surface cold front also moving NE into western areas by midnight. Warm moist surface airmass will likely destablise as upper trough passes through, with a risk of thunderstorms developing across central and southern Britain on Saturday.

... EIRE/N. IRELAND, E WALES, S ENGLAND, MIDLANDS, N ENGLAND ...

A warm and moist airmass, characterised by PWAT (Precipitable Water) values of 1.1/ to 1.5 inches resides across much of the UK and Nern EIRE away from the far SW UK and S Ireland. Despite a lot of mid-level cloud cover, pockets of hazy sunny spells, already evident across some southern areas, will generate modest surface heating to yield 300-900 j/kg CAPE by mid-afternoon across the above areas. The combination of increasing large scale upper ascent and surface convergence ahead of approaching shortwave trough moving in from the W/SW will create enough forcing to produce scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms from late morning through to late evening across the above areas.

Vertical shear will be rather weak, but given light mid-level steering winds, storms will be slow-moving and may back-build along surface convergence lines to produce locally high rainfall totals (15-30mm) within a short space of time - leading to flash flooding - particularly across inland northern, central and southern areas of England. Therefore, have issued a MARGINAL risk of severe weather. Storms may also be accompanied by frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, hail and gusty winds.

Issued by Nick Finnis

[Supacell]

Finally I have finished editing the footage from the 7th June when I was out chasing near to and eventually in Bedford. Overall I have over 2 hours of video which I condensed down to around 1hr 40 for my own video files. However, for the purpose of broadcasting on YouTube I have cut it down further to half an hour. 

I originally heard this storm in the distance from the village of Ampthill and then chased it east where I stopped near the village of Houghton Conquest (around 5 miles south of Bedford). Most of the footage on this video is taken from stop off in the same position, braving the rain to get some lightning footage. Luckily the rain was not that heavy where I was.

After filming for around half an hour I headed into Bedford. Once in Bedford I got stuck in heavy traffic caused by a combination of it being rush hour and the weather. The core of the storm and the heaviest of the rainfall remained just to my west as I headed through Bedford. Once I got through (took around an hour) I headed towards Kettering and then Northampton. I haven't published the footage of this as it was basically just torrential rainfall with the odd flash of lightning every couple of minutes, nothing like what I saw around Bedford itself.

Apologies about the length, but it was hard to cut it down any further. If you can sit through half an hour of storm footage then enjoy

 

Edited June 11, 2016 by Supacell

[Frosty hollows]

Can't see much apart from isolated heavy downpours. I'm having a garden party late afternoon so no doubt I'll be copping one of these showers

[The PIT]

I think the mist and low temps will kill any storm prospects of. Waiting for the shower to come up from the south then I can wash the car and let it rinse naturally. If the sun comes out that may do the honours though.

[Staffordshire]

3 hours ago, Gordon Webb said:

metoffice office have issued warnngs again for today and the northern part of the west midlands is included as well but as expected in the warnings is that most places are expected to miss the worst and no mention of hazards of or frequent lightning as you sometimes see in these warnings which seems to suggest heavy downpours and thunder here and there

I'm actully up in Manchester today, not sure if that will serve me any better, guess I will see

[Darren Bown]

I'm in Manchester now. Humid and there are already cells popping up around here on radar.

[Nick F]

37 minutes ago, Supacell said:

Finally I have finished editing the footage from the 7th June when I was out chasing near to and eventually in Bedford. Overall I have over 2 hours of video which I condensed down to around 1hr 40 for my own video files. However, for the purpose of broadcasting on YouTube I have cut it down further to half an hour. 

I originally heard this storm in the distance from the village of Ampthill and then chased it east where I stopped near the village of Houghton Conquest (around 5 miles south of Bedford). Most of the footage on this video is taken from stop off in the same position, braving the rain to get some lightning footage. Luckily the rain was not that heavy where I was.

After filming for around half an hour I headed into Bedford. Once in Bedford I got stuck in heavy traffic caused by a combination of it being rush hour and the weather. The core of the storm and the heaviest of the rainfall remained just to my west as I headed through Bedford. Once I got through (took around an hour) I headed towards Kettering and then Northampton. I haven't published the footage of this as it was basically just torrential rainfall with the odd flash of lightning every couple of minutes, nothing like what I saw around Bedford itself.

Apologies about the length, but it was hard to cut it down any further. If you can sit through half an hour of storm footage then enjoy

 

Haven't watched the whole lot, but some good footage there 20 minutes or so onwards with a few cgs and continuous rumbling ... similar to the storms we had roll through south London that day. 

Have you ever been or ever considered chasing in the U.S,A in May or early June? On another level compared to the crowded roads and generallynon-severe storms of the UK ... with generally not much problems with traffic in U.S.A. other than chaser convergence when there's only one dominant storm for miles, but you get vast vistas in the Plains, amazing structures - lots of CGs, very large hail and, of course, tornadoes.

Back to home, milky sunshine and feeling oppressive here in south London.

 

Edited June 11, 2016 by Nick F

[BrickFielder]

Looking at the broad view of the forecast today then we have very moist air right the way up to the tropopause which should give us some storms embedded in grey murk moving from the south west across the UK during the afternoon and into the evening. The prime risk will be for local flash flooding. Weak winds through the atmosphere and relatively weak instability should limit the ability for severe storms to develop.

However some of the detail charts have one or two things about them that make me feel a little nervous about suggesting severe storms will not develop today.

I am looking at drier air coming aloft behind the band of storms with a touch of wind around the cloud tops. Cloud tops could be a little higher than we have seen over the week. Low level winds could pick up a little ahead of and behind the storms suggesting storms could develop their own low level wind field.  Mid Level (500hpa) vorticity and wind field charts show some anomalies which might suggest storms will deviate a little from the expected. EuMetsat satellite show a  band of vorticity coming in ahead of the drier air aloft. Some pretty low cloud bases forecast and looking out of the window low level cloud is scooting along quicker than I would have expected for the environment.

So the prime risk is still flash flooding, but there is some potential for significant lightning and I would not rule out a localised marginally severe storm especially if cloud begins to break ahead of storms. It should be an interesting day to see how it all unfolds.

[William Grimsley]

Just a general shower risk today as per usual. Next week looking a lot better for our area.

@BrickFielder, nice to see you back. I see we have a slight risk of thunderstorms then later on, but nothing like what's going to happen up north, once again!

Edited June 11, 2016 by William Grimsley

[Supacell]

21 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Haven't watched the whole lot, but some good footage there 20 minutes or so onwards with a few cgs and continuous rumbling ... similar to the storms we had roll through south London that day. 

Have you ever been or ever considered chasing in the U.S,A in May or early June? On another level compared to the crowded roads and generally weak storms of the UK with generally not much problems with traffic other than chaser convergence when there's only one dominant storm for miles, but you get vast vistas in the Plains, amazing structures - lots of CGs, very large hail and, of course, tornadoes.

Back to home, milky sunshine and feeling oppressive here in south London.

 

Thanks Nick. 

I have never been, but have definitely considered and thought a lot about chasing in the USA. It is actually my life long dream to do it! Chasing in the UK does have its rewards but I am well aware that even the best storms here do not rival what the storms that occur over the pond. Problem is affording it. I would need to discipline myself to save more and even then it may be difficult. I wouldn't feel as comfortable going it alone like I do here as there are obvious dangers and so would need a tour group. I will get there one day, I will make sure of it.

Edit: Hazy sunshine appearing here, bodes well for later.

Edited June 11, 2016 by Supacell

[William Grimsley]

Cells readily developing over Cornwall now.