South East and East Anglia weather discussion/Chat - 1st June onwards

[alexisj9]

Same here, not bad at all. Today so far it feel warm, cloudy with sunny spells and a few light spot of rain every now and then.

[stainesbloke]

Wind howling yet again here with a lot of cloud, but feels warm, especially in any sunshine which will hopefully increase soon. 

[alexisj9]

When are this weeks storms supposed to start, got a very nice sky now ac cas every where, the most pre storm looking sky I've seen all year. Probably won't do anything mind.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Certainly going to be a hot week down here!  

[Badgers01]

presently in Oxshott Surrey and the sun is poking out and it feels positively tropical!

 

[Methuselah]

Dry, bright, humid and breezy, 22C.

[stainesbloke]

47 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Certainly going to be a hot week down here!  

Glad I have this week off work hehe  Looks good for our region this week, am a bit anxious about the weekend, still very mixed signals at this range. Hope you get to enjoy the weather, Surrey. Will help bring those melons on!

[Dami]

very mild and windy here. Managed to get part of our watering can into next doors garden and it flew a fair distance to where we were watering. Don't ask !!!!!!

[seaside 60]

Another day over 24c here, 26c in Southend, countless days of this making it feel like a very good summer, esp July onwards.

Clouds gone, proberly the best feeling day this week before all the humidity sets in.

Hopefully we get the sea breeze.

[Methuselah]

Sunny, muggy and too hot - 24C!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Certainly feel that temperature going up over today as the warmer and humid air begins to set in.

Please ignore the few in the model thread that don't really have a scoobie when it comes to weather. (I say that a lot I know) I like both hot and cold weather, but there seems to be a few that pull the worst runs to spoil it for everyone.

I'm sure @Blessed Weather will be along shortly to give a better idea on this week, but despite the moan and groan about hot weather, I'm looking at this week with interest as it might turn out to be the longest consecutive amount of days we go above 30c for a long time 2-3 days even 4! That's pretty good going for the UK and in the last end of August!! 

[Captain Shortwave]

Quite a lot of cloud here this afternoon, still the temperature has climbed to 24C.

Hotting up tomorrow and remaining hot through the middle of the week.

[seaside 60]

44 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Sunny, muggy and too hot - 24C!

So you think its to hot today, lol...
You wont be a happy bunny the rest of the week, in fact nor will I....

[Methuselah]

Indeed...The RH is going to go sky-high!

[Dami]

i am hoping the seven day forecast is out. 25C at 1am? on yer bike. 

[SenlacJack]

With 2 outdoor events to attend over the weekend the weather gods were kinder than I was expecting and although very windy at times ( especially Saturday ), both events were thankfully rain free in this neck of the woods. Sunday afternoon even saw enough in the way of sunny spells to have me reaching for the sun lotion.

This afternoon has seen a return to near perfect summer conditions here and quite frankly I'm looking forward to the rest of the week and the forecast heat, albeit brief.

August really has been a very decent month here.

[Blessed Weather]

3 hours ago, Surrey said:

Certainly feel that temperature going up over today as the warmer and humid air begins to set in.

Please ignore the few in the model thread that don't really have a scoobie when it comes to weather. (I say that a lot I know) I like both hot and cold weather, but there seems to be a few that pull the worst runs to spoil it for everyone.

I'm sure @Blessed Weather will be along shortly to give a better idea on this week, but despite the moan and groan about hot weather, I'm looking at this week with interest as it might turn out to be the longest consecutive amount of days we go above 30c for a long time 2-3 days even 4! That's pretty good going for the UK and in the last end of August!! 

Thanks for your kind words @Surrey . I do sometimes wonder if I'm boring everyone by always posting charts, but I'm of a vintage prior to the Internet and from a time where there just wasn't the massive quantities of free info we now take for granted. Being a life-long weather freak I just love being able to mull over and analyse all the charts and forecasts at our fingertips! 

So... not to let you down, here's the latest forecasts from Arpege and NMM high res models. This afternoon's 12z Arpege run has slightly eased back the max temps for us, in particular for the hottest day, Weds. Yesterday it forecast 31C widely around the Region. Today it's 30C and for a smaller area - more in line with what the Beeb/Met Office are suggesting. (I've not shown the charts, but note NMM is still going for 30C widely on Weds, with several locations hitting 32C).

Here's the Arpege temps charts at 17.00. Note how the heat is pegged back to the eastern half of the Region by Thurs:

Tues  Wed  Thurs

Then with regard a possible thundery breakdown, today's forecast suggests this will start on Weds evening. The Met Office Fax Chart for midnight Wed (Thur 00.00) shows a trough straddling the Region.

Fax Chart Thur 00.00

The risk of thundery outbreaks continues through Thurs and into the small hours of Fri morning:

Wed 23.00  Thur 11.00  Fri 02.00

Although a few days to go - so caution needed - some decent CAPE & LI charts support the suggestion of prepitation being thundery. The areas of high (red) CAPE values (Convective Available Potential Energy) showing the atmosphere fairly unstable, and the negative LI (lifted index) suggesting sufficient convective lifting of hot air parcels to kick things off. 

Wed 15.00  Wed 20.00  Thur 14.00

So all in all, an interesting and enjoyable few days of weather coming up! Unless of course you hate heat and storms, in which case it's looking pants!

[Mark wheeler]

45 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

Thanks for your kind words @Surrey . I do sometimes wonder if I'm boring everyone by always posting charts, but I'm of a vintage prior to the Internet and from a time where there just wasn't the massive quantities of free info we now take for granted. Being a life-long weather freak I just love being able to mull over and analyse all the charts and forecasts at our fingertips! 

So... not to let you down, here's the latest forecasts from Arpege and NMM high res models. This afternoon's 12z Arpege run has slightly eased back the max temps for us, in particular for the hottest day, Weds. Yesterday it forecast 31C widely around the Region. Today it's 30C and for a smaller area - more in line with what the Beeb/Met Office are suggesting. (I've not shown the charts, but note NMM is still going for 30C widely on Weds, with several locations hitting 32C).

Here's the Arpege temps charts at 17.00. Note how the heat is pegged back to the eastern half of the Region by Thurs:

Tues  Wed  Thurs

Then with regard a possible thundery breakdown, today's forecast suggests this will start on Weds evening. The Met Office Fax Chart for midnight Wed (Thur 00.00) shows a trough straddling the Region.

Fax Chart Thur 00.00

The risk of thundery outbreaks continues through Thurs and into the small hours of Fri morning:

Wed 23.00  Thur 11.00  Fri 02.00

Although a few days to go - so caution needed - some decent CAPE & LI charts support the suggestion of prepitation being thundery. The areas of high (red) CAPE values (Convective Available Potential Energy) showing the atmosphere fairly unstable, and the negative LI (lifted index) suggesting sufficient convective lifting of hot air parcels to kick things off. 

Wed 15.00  Wed 20.00  Thur 14.00

So all in all, an interesting and enjoyable few days of weather coming up! Unless of course you hate heat and storms, in which case it's looking pants!

Superb thanks blessed weather . I read your posts often and it's a fine contribution you make . One that I envy . I only post sometimes in here but always read . Thank you . Starting to feel closer now my house is always too hot so it will be uncomfortable for a few days . A sacrifice I'm more than willing to make to get some lovely outdoor weather . 

[Captain Shortwave]

1 hour ago, Blessed Weather said:

Thanks for your kind words @Surrey . I do sometimes wonder if I'm boring everyone by always posting charts, but I'm of a vintage prior to the Internet and from a time where there just wasn't the massive quantities of free info we now take for granted. Being a life-long weather freak I just love being able to mull over and analyse all the charts and forecasts at our fingertips! 

So... not to let you down, here's the latest forecasts from Arpege and NMM high res models. This afternoon's 12z Arpege run has slightly eased back the max temps for us, in particular for the hottest day, Weds. Yesterday it forecast 31C widely around the Region. Today it's 30C and for a smaller area - more in line with what the Beeb/Met Office are suggesting. (I've not shown the charts, but note NMM is still going for 30C widely on Weds, with several locations hitting 32C).

Here's the Arpege temps charts at 17.00. Note how the heat is pegged back to the eastern half of the Region by Thurs:

So all in all, an interesting and enjoyable few days of weather coming up! Unless of course you hate heat and storms, in which case it's looking pants!

Here we are sitting here Monday night and in relation to Thursday onwards we really still don't how how things will pan out. For example the arpege gives a high in the low twenties for my location, whilst the GFS/NetWx-MR give temperatures in the low thirties.

Such a fine line with respect to how far north and west the heat gets.

So tomorrow looks hot and sunny, Wednesday looks hot and sunny, Thursday could be hot and sunny or cool with rain/thunderstorms, Friday looks mostly fine and warm, possibly very warm still. Then we have Saturday where we could see the continental heat return with the risk of some elevated storms along the warm front pushing north from France. A real mess with no real consistency from the models though the GFS seems to be more positive in terms of heat.

Edited August 22, 2016 by Captain Shortwave
Removed charts from quote to shrink post.

[Methuselah]

I think I'd rather Thursday was cool with thunderstorms...IMO, this summer has been far too Betty Swollocks!

[Blessed Weather]

^ Many thanks for your kind words @Mark wheeler.

A quick look at the latest Arpege charts this morning shows little change from the 12z charts I posted yesterday. But the Met Office Fax Charts do give a clue about the timing of the hottest air being shunted off to our East. The chart for midnight Thur (Fri 00.00) shows the advancing Cold Front has yet to cross our Region, with a trough very close to the East Anglian coastline, hopefully pepping up thundery outbreaks. By Fri noon the Cold Front has finally cleared the far SE corner, clearing the rain away to give a very pleasant day, with temps still hitting a very respectable 23C - 25C.

Fri 00.00  Fri 12.00

[stainesbloke]

Absolutely lovely morning here, cloudless skies, 25C already and that awful wind has finally gone. 

[alexisj9]

Lovely day today, a high so far of 24.4, heading downwards now. A very slight breeze in the air, perfect weather.

[LetItSnow!]

Absolutely beautiful weather here! Not a single cloud in the sky, also very warm, with temperatures rising very quickly; 27.4C so far. 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Boys and girls, what a day! Proper summer what's not to like?!?!

And more to come