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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread 25/5/16 onwards


A.J

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Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
2 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

Terrible. I'm off home as low on fuel, maybe another day. None of the convection here looks significant. Ah well. :)

pretty sure home-grown convection is meant to fire anytime between now and like 9pm?

 

I'm usually the most pessimistic person ever but i'm pretty sure somewhere is going to see something. Might be ten minutes from now, might be a few hours. Think you threw the towell in a little early

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Posted
  • Location: Hedge End, Southampton SO30
  • Location: Hedge End, Southampton SO30
8 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

Terrible. I'm off home as low on fuel, maybe another day. None of the convection here looks significant. Ah well. :)

Give it a chance! Haha:D

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Posted
  • Location: Near Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Severe storms and heavy snow
  • Location: Near Hull

I've noticed gatwick has gone from prob 30 to prob 40 for cumulonimbus in the early hours through tomorrow moring. That's a good sign for us in the south. 

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

It's a fairly safe bet that there's going to be no storms around here today. The wind has picked up and there is still plenty of cloud with barely any sunny spells.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
14 minutes ago, Davethedog said:

A nice little altocumulus castellanus building over Yorkshire (see pic)...

longform-original-32047-1444664511-4.jpg

That's altonimbus lol(altitudal nimbus);)

Will,listen to us all,pick ya towel up,

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat Waves, Tornadoes.
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol

Just had a quick drive round the Bradley Stoke and Aztec West Area, here. The Sun is out in parts but you definitely see the clouds getting larger in the gaps. Humid too.

William I think you have given up far too early. Others seem to be writing it off already. The day is not over yet!

Edited by Karl83
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Posted
  • Location: Downton, Wiltshire
  • Location: Downton, Wiltshire
7 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

I'm not sure whether they are showers or anaprop over Salisbury?

I'm 5 miles south of Salisbury and we've got light rain from the edge of this....

IMGP0445_sm.jpg

I suspect those to the NW of here might well do OK later.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL

Salisbury deffo the place to be, things are no beginning to get going. To the SW a classic radar trace shows nicely of a cell there that has just fired up.

Another just fired up to the SE of Salisbury and NW of Southampton, here we go..

Edited by Dorsetbred
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Posted
  • Location: Devizes Wiltshire
  • Location: Devizes Wiltshire
8 minutes ago, jtay said:

I'm 5 miles south of Salisbury and we've got light rain from the edge of this....

IMGP0445_sm.jpg

I suspect those to the NW of here might well do OK later.

 

Looks promising for later :)

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Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire

Yes it's gone very dark approaching Warminster from the S/SE in the last 15 minutes after a very warm and quite sunny 3 to 4 hours, although it's hazy TCu can certainly be seen. Those showers from South Wiltshire into Dorset have started developing quickly and I would expect torrential downpours by 16.00, whether they turn thundery remains to be seen.

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Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL

Cells are now firing up to the SW & SE of Salisbury, deffo the place to be right now.  A line is beginning to form from Southampton across to Wells & Weston SM.

Unfortunately I'm too far south to gain the benefit of these, as the tracks begin to show their northerly movement.

 

Edited by Dorsetbred
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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

Brilliant looking storm over west Wales - it's good they're getting in on the action too!

Does nocturnal cooling play a part in this type of setup or is that more of a hindrance? My knowledge of storm ingredients doesn't stretch that far.

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Posted
  • Location: Downton, Wiltshire
  • Location: Downton, Wiltshire
11 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

Cells are now firing up to the SW & SE of Salisbury, deffo the place to be right now.  A line is beginning to form from Southampton across to Wells & Weston SM.

 

It's borderline moderate rain here now, but decent convective drops.

Edit - Scratch that. Heavy rain here now.

Edited by jtay
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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
8 minutes ago, Andy Bown said:

Yes it's gone very dark approaching Warminster from the S/SE in the last 15 minutes after a very warm and quite sunny 3 to 4 hours, although it's hazy TCu can certainly be seen. Those showers from South Wiltshire into Dorset have started developing quickly and I would expect torrential downpours by 16.00, whether they turn thundery remains to be seen.

yes Andy.....showers are forming along a convergence line which is supplying the forcing needed....pretty much as per Nick F's forecast as the NMM hi-res modelling....this particular convergence zone is progged to lift north to the M4 corridor as the afternoon/evening progresses......with that in mind, Wilts, Bristol/BANES would be the areas to watch

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
1 minute ago, ajpoolshark said:

yes Andy.....showers are forming along a convergence line which is supplying the forcing needed....pretty much as per Nick F's forecast as the NMM hi-res modelling....this particular convergence zone is progged to lift north to the M4 corridor as the afternoon/evening progresses......with that in mind, Wilts, Bristol/BANES would be the areas to watch

Oh boy isn't that what I like to hear!

Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat Waves, Tornadoes.
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
5 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Oh boy isn't that what I like to hear!

Fingers crossed!

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
14 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

yes Andy.....showers are forming along a convergence line which is supplying the forcing needed....pretty much as per Nick F's forecast as the NMM hi-res modelling....this particular convergence zone is progged to lift north to the M4 corridor as the afternoon/evening progresses......with that in mind, Wilts, Bristol/BANES would be the areas to watch

Excellent, if we could just get something into North Somerset too that would be perfect. :D

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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Wight
  • Location: Isle of Wight
15 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

yes Andy.....showers are forming along a convergence line which is supplying the forcing needed....pretty much as per Nick F's forecast as the NMM hi-res modelling....this particular convergence zone is progged to lift north to the M4 corridor as the afternoon/evening progresses......with that in mind, Wilts, Bristol/BANES would be the areas to watch

Does that mean, nothing is likely below that.. 

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

that new stuff developing looks like it's heading North rather than North West, either way it aint heading this way.

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