Convective/Storm Discussion Thread 25/5/16 onwards

[A.J]

some thick Ac Cas here, sunshine has disappeared, hidden by said cloud...think I might head out soon

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

My eyes are to the MCS exploding in northern France. It's heading in our direction - just needs to speed up a bit

[Chris.R]

 Stupidly hot. 28.3°C, just  beaten yesterday's maximum. 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

4 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

 Stupidly hot. 28.3°C, just  beaten yesterday's maximum. 

managed 26.5 according to my vans thermometer. Felt proper hot

[William Grimsley]

Things starting to kick off now across the UK which is nice to see. Can see a nice active thunderstorm just north of Ilfracombe, wouldn't mind being there right now. LOL.

Just checking out this band of cloud coming in from the SW interacting with this unstable air could lead to elevated thunderstorms for southern coastal areas tonight, that's my thinking, but again I'm not sure about that. I've stayed put today simply because I think most activity will be in Wales and not much further SE. I probably will chase tomorrow especially as NMM and Met Office break out heavy showers/thunderstorms in this area, was hoping I wouldn't have to move but they may be more intense the further east I go, however I doubt I'll be chasing the ones near Salisbury, it'll be getting late.

Good luck to everyone this evening, I'm sure with all the reports of unstable looking skies it's about to go bang very quickly!

[Chris K]

Arrived home from work to hear a couple of faint rumbles over to my NW. Must have been those strikes picked up just over the River Severn towards Monmouthshire.

 

Pretty bang on from the NetWx-SR model so far this afternoon in my opinion.

 

 

 

Edited June 6, 2016 by Chris K

[Milocation]

Storms cropping up now over the UK

[Dami]

popped out back to school to take bubs to rainbows, and there is cloud building, thought could even be a shower, but radar doesn't show any close.

Lovely out, breeze has picked up and for once is welcome.

Not expecting anything today or tomorrow but good luck to those in the right spots =)

[Milocation]

42 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

some thick Ac Cas here, sunshine has disappeared, hidden by said cloud...think I might head out soon

hope you get something  

 

btw anyone know if that storm coming from Calais direction is surface based???

Edited June 6, 2016 by LimoPreacherman

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

New cells firing just south of the channel.

Anyone know if the water's warm enough yet to support any storms that journey over it?

[Frosty hollows]

Cloud suddenly building here and turned more humid.

To my east

[Frosty hollows]

And looking North and West

[alexisj9]

2 minutes ago, LimoPreacherman said:

hope you get something  

 

btw anyone know if that storm coming from Calais direction is surface based???

It will be for now, we'll see if it's strong enough later I expect. I think at first you will see it weakening, then as the evening goes on start making some inroads if we are lucky. That's dependant on a few things though. Like if the mlcape is strong enough, who knows. 

[Milocation]

do you recon it will make it far enough or will it die soon

[William Grimsley]

I'd think the thunderstorms over Benelux are surface based but over this evening as the fancy nocturnal cooling takes place they could reinvigorate over the English Channel!

[Speedway Slider]

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

That is some fairly impressive CAPE for any storms to tap in to over the next few hours...

 

With all this Cape around.... and by the looks of it, a bit further east than forecast (the triangle jutting into the Midlands) does this give us midlanders more of a chance of copping a thunderstorm than initially forecast today??

[Milocation]

Just now, William Grimsley said:

I'd think the thunderstorms over Benelux are surface based but over this evening as the fancy nocturnal cooling takes place they could reinvigorate over the English Channel!

cool (answer my PM WILLIAM! )

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Speedway Slider said:

With all this Cape around.... and by the looks of it, a bit further east than forecast (the triangle jutting into the Midlands) does this give us midlanders more of a chance of copping a thunderstorm than initially forecast today??

Generally speaking, a build up of CAPE is useless if there's nothing to act as a triggering mechanism (which unfortunately there isn't further E today). Where isolated cells do form over the next hour or two however, they could be relatively severe. Tomorrow looks potentially interesting with storm coverage looking increasingly widespread. 

[Milocation]

Sea Temperature: 12.4°C (54.3°F) i don't know whether this is hot enough

 

http://www.channelswimmingassociation.com/swim-advice/channel-water-temperatures/

 

 

[Ben Sainsbury]

5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Generally speaking, a build up of CAPE is useless if there's nothing to act as a triggering mechanism (which unfortunately there isn't further E today). Where isolated cells do form over the next hour or two however, they could be relatively severe. Tomorrow looks potentially interesting with storm coverage looking increasingly widespread. 

That's right and currently where the showers exist is where the trough is. Hopefully the trough will edge further in time to be in place with the heat and convergence zones.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Quick question: can a surface-based storm become elevated? If so, what are mechanisms involved, and over what sort of time scale?

Sorry if it's a dumb question but my knowledge is sketchy

[andymusic]

storm in the bristol channel has exploded

[alexisj9]

Just looked on lightning maps, don't think the current storm will do much over here, Euro 4 say's yes to imports, but later ones. We will see soon enough I expect.

[William Grimsley]

God, I'm so tempted to go up to that coast but it'll be a "get there and have to come back" scenario and it'll probably have died once I get there.

[Milocation]

is that a false positive over the channel???

Edited June 6, 2016 by LimoPreacherman