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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread 25/5/16 onwards

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I'm expecting a breakout of renewed electrical activity from that cell moving NW towards Guildford as it passes into the marginal area depicted by the risk maps.

The Brighton area has done well so far this morning and they weren't even pronged for much, so it figures today could be a day of pleasant/unpleasant surprises (based on your location and interest in such things!)

Good luck to all - especially supercell and fellow stop outs! :-P

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Afternoon all ,yesterday was a great day here in parts of my area [Somerset ] torrential rain and several overhead thunder claps .

my garden looked great with loads of bedding plants in bloom ,well now they look tatty and broken as the force of the rain hit them hard ,well lets hope for some action later and perhaps some late evening storms to light up the sky ,heres hoping Gang .

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latest bbc 1 forecast shows showers across southern england say oxford east and west in a line with more focus on SW and wales that was at 1600 hours their time not really showing them moving any further north if anything just staying there and judging by those in the SE / south coast overnight which moved very little in 2 or 3 hours if you happen to get one break out your water wings is my advice seems my local ie birmigham and the like should escape and have a dry day which is bad news in another sense as I have a large back garden needed mowing and very little desire to do so

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Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 28 May 2016 - 05:59 UTC Sun 29 May 2016

ISSUED 08:15 UTC Sat 28 May 2016

ISSUED BY: Chris

A similar set-up to Friday, warm, humid air will continue to persist across southwestern parts of Britain and Ireland leading to scattered heavy showers and a few thunderstorms. (A few thunderstorms from mid-level instability have already occurred across SE England on Saturday morning).  On Saturday afternoon, ELTs will reach near 50C, and surface to 500mb lapse rates near 40C suggest the environment is capable of produce some significant convection leading to thunderstorms. CAPE values by mid-afternoon across parts of SW England and S Wales will also reach 500-800 j/kg. Again, like yesterday moisture will be a limiting factor, so while storms are expected to develop, they may be isolated in nature. 

Heavy rain is also expected with these slow-moving heavy showers and thunderstorms and some localised flash flooding can be expected. 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-05-28

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2 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

Thanks, Summer Sun. I may revise my thoughts and go up the A303. Decisions...

judging by BBC graphics that would be the ideal road to go on

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23 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I'm expecting a breakout of renewed electrical activity from that cell moving NW towards Guildford as it passes into the marginal area depicted by the risk maps.

The Brighton area has done well so far this morning and they weren't even pronged for much, so it figures today could be a day of pleasant/unpleasant surprises (based on your location and interest in such things!)

Good luck to all - especially supercell and fellow stop outs! :-P

I'm about 10 miles west of Brighton and all we've had here is a few spits of rain!

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Hmm, A30 to Honiton then A303 to Ilminster? Sounds good plan or? Anyone got any suggestions? @Supacell?

Edited by William Grimsley

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Brighton looks like it's getting absolutely plastered today with one shower after another . Anyone near there ?

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1 minute ago, Mark wheeler said:

Brighton looks like it's getting absolutely plastered today with one shower after another . Anyone near there ?

depends how you define near if you mean 164.6 miles to the north then yes

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4 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Brighton looks like it's getting absolutely plastered today with one shower after another . Anyone near there ?

Yeah. In Worthing. West along the cost a few miles. It's hardly raining. 

Distant thunder now.

Edited by tomp456

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A late report but had a storm here yesterday but it came just as left to go into town to meet friends so got soaked, was still going when i got to the waterfront so got to watch it for a bit before hitting the dance floor to show off my dancing skills lol.

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It's just a matter of radar watching today, I think?! The models all agree on the potential, precip charts are a waste of bandwidth today. I'll see how it pans out it comparison to this.

Screenshot_2016-05-28-12-24-54.png

Should be fun later this afternoon! I hope many get lucky later. :)

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Got woken up by a very brief storm in the early hours, hoping for more to come!!

image.jpg

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22 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Brighton looks like it's getting absolutely plastered today with one shower after another . Anyone near there ?

I'm in Shoreham by Sea at the moment. Absolutely threw it down about an hour ago. Occasional thunder at the moment but all very embedded. Just grey, murky and very humid!

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Sea mist back in here, can't see anything happening for at least an hour, there's too much cloud further inland...

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1 minute ago, William Grimsley said:

Sea mist back in here, can't see anything happening for at least an hour, there's too much cloud further inland...

Storms in the channel with a sea mist happened here a couple of years ago, it was night time and looked really cool, could not only see the lightning flashes but also here the thunder from the storms for ages, and then they came over.

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33 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

Hmm, A30 to Honiton then A303 to Ilminster? Sounds good plan or? Anyone got any suggestions? @Supacell?

From sources elsewhere and on here i think Devon could do well this afternoon. I'd probably head a little inland though. Agree on the A30/ A303, it is a good E to W route for interception. I am hanging near to the same road, just further east, for the same reason.

Be ready to head north too if necessary.

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More sferics around Brighton, now a new location, near Crawley - rogue?

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5 minutes ago, Supacell said:

From sources elsewhere and on here i think Devon could do well this afternoon. I'd probably head a little inland though. Agree on the A30/ A303, it is a good E to W route for interception. I am hanging near to the same road, just further east, for the same reason.

Be ready to head north too if necessary.

Ok, thanks. Just wondering whether you think I should go now or wait? There are some nice clouds going up but none of them are even dropping anything yet!

Well, this hasn't happened... yet.

1b6e8d44eb5509aca29a64ae558eb536.png

Edited by William Grimsley

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3 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

Ok, thanks. Just wondering whether you think I should go now or wait? There are some nice clouds going up but none of them are even dropping anything yet!

I am guessing showers will probably start around 2pm. However that is a guess based on what happened yesterday. When you go depends on how good you are at sitting in a car waiting. I think its better to get in position ready with easy routes around you but I have currently been waiting since yesterday evening...it can get quite tiring :D

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Beeb have A30/ A303 satuated with showers by 4pm at least according to their graphics and essentailly staying there or at least moving with such speed a tortoise will seem rapid by comparison

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Brighton marina getting a drenching today..

Screenshot_2016-05-28-13-12-38.png

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Very slow clearance at the moment, need this cloud to shift. Occasional glimpses of very warm sunshine but otherwise white milky skies. Feeling muggy though at 18.8C.

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