Convective/Storm Discussion Thread 25/5/16 onwards

[IanR]

22 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

 

the sky is looking quiet thundery to my SW,getting darker.

its called dusk  

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, IanR said:

its called dusk  

Lol,i know that,check my last post(edited),you can see the difference in five minutes.

[IanR]

really cant see any thundery activity going to spark off over the the north west now, its was never a done deal,  

[Allseasons-Si]

Just now, IanR said:

really cant see any thundery activity going to spark off over the the north west now, its was never a done deal,  

I did say it was looking thundery,not that we are going to have a thunderstorm,nice developments though here,so something to talk about convective wise,would be nice if there was a surprise storm that popped up though

[Raidan]

1 hour ago, Bristle boy said:

It's Day 4 of the 'thundery spell' and we've had......erm.....10 minutes of rain. No thunder and no lightning.

Plenty of warmth and sunshine though.

It's a tough gig this weather forecasting business.

Ive had no rain at all here just day in day out humid conditions really hope it rains tomorrow only have to work half day will feel nice better than sitting outside the pub under the hanging basket after its been watered lol.

[Muffelchen]

Shower to my NW coming this way against the wind....  No thunder of rain in this spell here....yet!  Not confident tonight though.

[Greeny]

Sunday for my area has upgraded since last nights GFS run, I'm not going to look into too much detail but lapse rates steepen with reasonable SBCAPE and MLCAPE to boot. An upper trough is currently forecast to sweep over the UK from the south west extending across the entire UK,

Its thursday and will check again same time tomorrow night. Still looking looking interesting for next week which is promising.

EDIT: theres still some decent PWAT forecast through this period and dewpoints also (albeit probably a bit less than 15C as forecast by GFS).

Edited June 9, 2016 by Greeny

[Greeny]

Yeah it looks unlikely for anything your way tomorrow William, lapse rates are not really steep enough imo, perhaps a shower but I'm guessing really. Highest CAPE values are in the entire midlands mainly.

[Supacell]

4 hours ago, CreweCold said:

That may be so but EURO4 now shows that convergence line well with some torrential returns showing across the N Midlands tomorrow afternoon/evening

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2016/06/09/basis12/ukuk/prec/16061015_0912.gif

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2016/06/09/basis12/ukuk/prec/16061018_0912.gif

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2016/06/09/basis12/ukuk/prec/16061021_0912.gif

Yes CC, I may have to rethink my original post. There does appear to be a risk of some thunderstorms across the N Midlands with some half decent CAPE showing up on the NMM MUCAPE charts along with numerous convergence zones. Some interest at least.

[Darren Bown]

Morning all. ESTOFEX seem to be favouring the convergence line over the N Midlands (50% line), with possibility of some echoes here and into Northern England later on this afternoon.

[Summer Sun]

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 10 Jun 2016 - 05:59 UTC Sat 11 Jun 2016

ISSUED 20:59 UTC Thu 09 Jun 2016

ISSUED BY: Chris

High pressure to the north of Britain will continue to weaken, leaving a slack pattern in place. At the same time, height falls will continue aloft as well as cooling of mid-levels over Ireland into the afternoon. The steeping lapse rates in Ireland may produce a few isolated heavy showers with thunder very late in the day and into early evening there.

A lot of cloud and some dynamic rain is expected during the morning across central England, but south of that, an area of instability will develop into the afternoon. CAPE values for 400-500j/kg will be possible into the afternoon, with LIs only neutral or marginally negative. These relatively weak thermodynamics combined with virtually no shear and the fact that a similar airmass did not produce much thunder on Thursday mean that this slight risk is on the low end, and may need to be downgraded. Convection should initiate in the slight zone between 1200-1400BST on Friday. 

Mesoscale models indicate the warm/humid airmass will linger into the early evening across SCen England, suggesting a few heavy showers with marginal thunder risk may develop there into the evening. 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-06-10

Edited June 10, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Polar Maritime]

Some pretty heavy showers for parts of the Midlands from mid-day as shown by Net/Wx hi res in house model.

 

Edited June 10, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[William Grimsley]

Met Office forecasted heavy rain all morning last night and can only see drizzly rain currently, this should intensify and become thundery soon.

[Windblade]

Not much happening down here. Quite cool compared to what we have experienced these past few days although it is slowly warming. However, I can't see there being any storms today due to lack of instability from what I can see. Also, it just doesn't "feel" stormy or have the potential for storms for me and I have learned to trust my instincts over the years when it comes to storms. So, to quench my storm thirst a little, here are a couple of pics from wednesday of the cell that was to my east at bexley at 3:30pm which gave a couple of nice rumbles as I got out of the car. Sorry if these pics are a couple of days late...

Edited June 10, 2016 by Windblade

[Gordon Webb]

Seem to have a little rain shower nearby

[William Grimsley]

Cells starting to pop up to my south, raining here lightly, just managed to cut some of the grass.

[Windblade]

Good luck William. Hope you get something mate.

[Polar Maritime]

Heavy showers starting to form now in the Midlands. 

[Staffordshire]

Yet again I look set to JUST miss out, still only a few drops of rain this week, actually quite impressive how dry and stormless my town has remained given the very near surrounding towns

[weather09]

Nice to see day on day potential for perhaps week or so as we retain decent moisture at the surface with increasingly cool mid-levels going into next week, as upper trough over Atlantic moves over UK. Bit unusual to see GFS model relatively high CAPE in what would be a post-front, maritime air mass environment.  Though with it being June and solar input really high, combined with cold air aloft, recipe for some moderate or even strong storms despite the likelihood of very weak shear aloft as winds look to remain light at mid-upper levels. 

Still drying off from Wednesday's storm which left parts of my region under a few feet of water.  Can expect more of this for parts of the UK given synoptic pattern for the foreseeable.  

[William Grimsley]

Is looking good for my area, @weather09. Expecting several torrential downpours with thunder over the coming days, but maybe not today.

[Chris.R]

strike to my South,  27 miles. Feeling incredibly  oppressive here. Temp  21.2°C, DP  18°C. 

[Arnie Pie]

41 minutes ago, Staffordshire said:

Yet again I look set to JUST miss out, still only a few drops of rain this week, actually quite impressive how dry and stormless my town has remained given the very near surrounding towns

Becoming increasingly moody to the North....cells popping up all the time...Pretty sure you will get something today Staffy

[William Grimsley]

Unstable sky overhead, looks like Altocumulus Castellanus and Altocumulus cloud mixed in.

Just seen some nice "castles" going up to my east... Just shown by a developing shower to my east...

Edited June 10, 2016 by William Grimsley

[Polar Maritime]

Light to moderate shower over me just now. Temp 21c