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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread 25/5/16 onwards


A.J

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
30 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

Potential for me to be woken up by loud thunder tomorrow morning before more thunderstorms move in from the south during the day, it's got to happen now I'm feeling unwell. LOL.

I agree with Mapantz.....nothing from the model outputs shout out 'thunderstorms' for your area....parameters look underwhelming, CAPE through the surface and medium layers look meagre, low lapse-rates, a very weak disturbance passing along the channel and northern france may just produce some forcing in the mid-levels allowing limited elevated convection, but it does seem limited and is hindered by some capping at that level, no cold pool aloft, and slack(ish) winds aloft..........still, the earlier NMM06z was more bullish on developing some showery rain (some convective) over some parts of the SW, but should not taken as gospel (it really over-cooked today's shower/storm potential)......Still, lets see what the 12z NMM output brings

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Posted
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight

To me the stuff coming up tonght and tomorrow, doesn't look that convective, especially by the time it reaches the South West Coast, best chance for storms tomorrow looks to be further North!

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

A couple of cells have fired up just west of me,strongest one WSW of here,will they produce lightning:nea:,we shall see.

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

To me, it looks very thundery on the NMM run, good amount of CAPE at mid-level so quite confused, GFS also brings this in so we'll have to see. BBC are just saying rain though. :(

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
9 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

To me, it looks very thundery on the NMM run, good amount of CAPE at mid-level so quite confused, GFS also brings this in so we'll have to see. BBC are just saying rain though. :(

The ML in "MLCAPE" stands for mixed layer, not mid level :)

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

Meteo Group app is usually very accurate and shows storms late afternoon in the Home Counties. I believe it uses ECM data but is manually edited by forecasters 

image.png

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
6 minutes ago, Nick L said:

The ML in "MLCAPE" stands for mixed layer, not mid level :)

Interesting, some website's have stated this is mid level, my bad.

Oh, and no offence AJ, but you seem to never agree to anything that resembles my thoughts. Seems ironic.

If I could actually see the sky above, I bet it would be covered in instability, Met Office satellite shows a tonne of it coming up from the south. :)

Edited by William Grimsley
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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
9 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Meteo Group app is usually very accurate and shows storms late afternoon in the Home Counties. I believe it uses ECM data but is manually edited by forecasters 

image.png

Yes, it is. I remember in September 2014 it forecasting severe thunderstorms and boy we got some!

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Posted
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside

Really overcast here, can see some structure to my S/SE. 22c with a slight breeze and 70% humidity. Feels quite close.

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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
16 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

Interesting, some website's have stated this is mid level, my bad.

Oh, and no offence AJ, but you seem to never agree to anything that resembles my thoughts. Seems ironic.

If I could actually see the sky above, I bet it would be covered in instability, Met Office satellite shows a tonne of it coming up from the south. :)

I'm sorry William but there does not look much chance of storms tonight or tomorrow in the SW. NMM keeps the instability out in the Channel and GFS builds just a small amount of CAPE further north around the Midlands tomorrow, but even here it is very little and wouldn't likely lead to much thundery activity. Best chances look to be from Sunday onwards now.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
42 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

Interesting, some website's have stated this is mid level, my bad.

Oh, and no offence AJ, but you seem to never agree to anything that resembles my thoughts. Seems ironic.

If I could actually see the sky above, I bet it would be covered in instability, Met Office satellite shows a tonne of it coming up from the south. :)

*sigh*....contact me via pm if you have an issue with my posts and not here..........for the record, I didn't agree with your earlier post because I think it was inaccurate at that time, simples

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
3 minutes ago, Speedway Slider said:

Can't believe this hasn't sparked up in north Wales yet!!

Screenshot_2016-06-09-18-43-00.png

Too much high level cloud and capping.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
31 minutes ago, Supacell said:

I'm sorry William but there does not look much chance of storms tonight or tomorrow in the SW. NMM keeps the instability out in the Channel and GFS builds just a small amount of CAPE further north around the Midlands tomorrow, but even here it is very little and wouldn't likely lead to much thundery activity. Best chances look to be from Sunday onwards now.

 

That may be so but EURO4 now shows that convergence line well with some torrential returns showing across the N Midlands tomorrow afternoon/evening

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2016/06/09/basis12/ukuk/prec/16061015_0912.gif

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2016/06/09/basis12/ukuk/prec/16061018_0912.gif

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2016/06/09/basis12/ukuk/prec/16061021_0912.gif

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
48 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

latest beeb forecast i saw showed the showers over northern england with the midlands dry

edit - met office local forecast does have possible heavy showers in NW midlands tomorrow but dry for the majority (midlands that is)

Edited by Gordon Webb
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Cell building towards Holmes Chapel way....can see it to my N and wouldn't be surprised if it turns electrical, has that look about it.

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Posted
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
1 hour ago, William Grimsley said:

Too much high level cloud and capping.

2 days of yellow warnings - not a drop of rain.

Today - no warning - Deluge of rain and hail, chaotic roads with surface water flooding!

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Posted
  • Location: Walsall,West Midlands
  • Location: Walsall,West Midlands

If you like Time-lapse video then you like this from Yesterday afternoon i'm no expert in making these but first one.

A bit of Thunder at the end.

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos

It's Day 4 of the 'thundery spell' and we've had......erm.....10 minutes of rain. No thunder and no lightning.

Plenty of warmth and sunshine though.

It's a tough gig this weather forecasting business.

Edited by Bristle boy
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Posted
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside

Still not rained here, been 14 days since the last drop of rain!

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
5 minutes ago, Darren Bown said:

Still not rained here, been 14 days since the last drop of rain!

It's on your doorstep Darren,though it does look to be fizzling out,i am more interested in those two cells that has fired up south of Macclesfield and west of Newport.

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Posted
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside
1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

It's on your doorstep Darren,though it does look to be fizzling out,i am more interested in those two cells that has fired up south of Macclesfield and west of Newport.

The rain definitely doesn't like crossing Merseyside currently! Pretty confident we will have rain tomorrow though.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
13 minutes ago, Darren Bown said:

The rain definitely doesn't like crossing Merseyside currently! Pretty confident we will have rain tomorrow though.

Yes,and hopefully some embedded storms in it too

just looking at the last two radar returns and a little potent cell has fired up over Shrewsbury

the sky is looking quiet thundery to my SW,getting darker.

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Somethings def brewing to my SW now,getting darker by the minute

five minutes ago

DSC00662.JPG

now

 

DSC00666.JPG

Edited by Allseasons-si
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