Convective/Storm Discussion Thread 25/5/16 onwards

[StormChaseUK]

Not a bad days chase, left Clee Hill around 2pm to chase towards the Wolverhampton/early Brum storm.

Saw a couple of flashes, and heard a few rumbles but the darkness of the cloud impressed me more.

 

 

[Windblade]

31 minutes ago, ancientsolar said:

anyway, this little mushroom as seen from we Wales valleys... Of a shower between Newport and Usk 

 

24 minutes ago, Shane Wheeldon said:

Atomic! 

Thats exactly what I was thinking!

[Windblade]

The brentwood cell still hasnt arrived and has been sitting over the river decaying for the past hour. I was hoping for some rain to cool things down a bit but even that looks to be dissipating from that cell. Overall activity has wained and I think thats it for today. Still pleased with what I've seen and heard today.

Edited June 8, 2016 by Windblade

[StormChaseUK]

Can anyone with a zoom/editing video tool take a closer look at my attached timelapse loop.

It appears to show dust/smoke/mist swirling up from the ground in the area highlighted.

20160608_180354.mp4

[Arnie Pie]

Still humid as anything around these parts........... evaporation over the allotments

 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Did some timelapses earlier of the cloud-base as it passed over. The lightning literally died at the point of taking it so I'm not sure if what I was seeing was the chaos of the updraughts and downdraughts being forced together and choking the cell, but it was quite stunning to watch.

Anyhow here's two screen grabs from the video (which I'll make available at a later time):

[Windblade]

3 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Did some timelapses earlier of the cloud-base as it passed over. The lightning literally died at the point of taking it so I'm not sure if what I was seeing was the chaos of the updraughts and downdraughts being forced together and choking the cell, but it was quite stunning to watch.

Anyhow here's two screen grabs from the video (which I'll make available at a later time):

Really nice pictures. Looking forward to seeing the video.

[Milocation]

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

"Dear the North of England,

It's only been 24 hours but I must pass on a deeply heartfelt thanks for returning our weather - undamaged - in such a considerate and timely manner.

I seem to remember it containing several electrical items when it was handed over to you yesterday - and unfortunately these appeared to be missing on receipt - but I'm prepared to overlook this as I hear it did leak somewhat when it reached you, so I guess that evens things out.

 

Until next time - best regards,

The South"

Edited June 8, 2016 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

I find it rather strange and fascinating that the weather has turned a whole 360 degrees since yesterday, and during such an active period!

Shame that the events of the last 48 hours have been predominantly pulse-like in nature - which personally frustrates me as it always leads to a teasing chase but seeing all those forks dropping from that storm at Luton yesterday I'd still consider it the best storm so far this year.

but gutted I continued to chase to Northampton only to find it had fizzled out but that's what was on the forecast as shear was negligible.

Want to spend some time rooting through footage but have an important project to deliver this week so I'll post what I can in due time.

Meanwhile I hear William talk of elevated Friday storms - potentially. Any further information on this?

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 09 Jun 2016 - 05:59 UTC Fri 10 Jun 2016

ISSUED 20:10 UTC Wed 08 Jun 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper ridge will be present across the British Isles on Thursday, with associated dry mid/upper levels and subsidence providing a capping inversion around 600mb. Residual moisture will exist at low-levels across western Britain which, combined with diurnal heating and orographic forcing / low-level convergence will be sufficient to create isolated heavy showers, particularly over higher terrain. Given limited convective depth (and hence relatively warm ELTs), lightning seems rather unlikely, or at least will be fairly isolated if it does occur.

Geopotential heights will fairly relatively quickly on Thursday night as sharp Atlantic upper trough approaches from the southwest - enabling some convective activity (with limited depth) to continue to migrate eastwards across Midlands/northern England overnight into the early hours of Friday. Again, lightning seems unlikely / isolated with this. 

Scope also for some mid-level convection to develop over the western English Channel towards Friday morning (end of this forecast period) in the vicinity of Start Bay / Lyme Bay and Channel Islands - have omitted introduction of a LOW threat area here due to uncertainty.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-06-09

[Weather-history]

A really odd sort of day, started slowly as they say then convection kicked off in afternoon and it cleared in the late afternoon

 

Edited June 8, 2016 by Weather-history

[William Grimsley]

50 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Scope also for some mid-level convection to develop over the western English Channel towards Friday morning (end of this forecast period) in the vicinity of Start Bay / Lyme Bay and Channel Islands - have omitted introduction of a LOW threat area here due to uncertainty.

That's what I like to see, basically if that comes to fruition I'll be getting a thunderstorm.

[Costa Del Fal]

Some of the most prolonged torrential rain I have ever seen today. The effects were even worse further north around Wolverhampton. Check this link out. Very serious floods in places - http://www.expressandstar.com/news/2016/06/08/flash-floods-bring-traffic-chaos-to-stourton/

[RobR]

Some of the images from the Black Country are unreal. Didn't help it was in rush hour as well. Never seen pictures like it.

[Mapantz]

15 minutes ago, Costa Del Fal said:

Some of the most prolonged torrential rain I have ever seen today. The effects were even worse further north around Wolverhampton. Check this link out. Very serious floods in places - http://www.expressandstar.com/news/2016/06/08/flash-floods-bring-traffic-chaos-to-stourton/

I've just been looking for stations in and around the area:

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IENGLAND1234

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IENGLAND381

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWESTMID25

Those three recorded 30mm in hour or less. One registered 168mm/hr for a time.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Got a capture of a strike from Tuesday's storm and wondering if I may have caught a glimpse of a funnel...

And another still - funnel not very clear but I'm sure it's too smooth to be scud

[MartinD]

I was just looking through the UK CAPE+lifted index chart and the last one shows this.... This would be so awesome if it actually happened  

[SnowJoke]

11 minutes ago, MartinD said:

I was just looking through the UK CAPE+lifted index chart and the last one shows this.... This would be so awesome if it actually happened  

Pipe dreams this far out from the gfs, If it did occur the temperatures must be forecast to be excessive and quite frank;y that amount of CAPE & -LI in the UK would mean a mass rush to purchase new trousers. The storms would me monsters compared to what we usually see...

[MartinD]

1 minute ago, SnowJoke said:

Pipe dreams this far out from the gfs, If it did occur the temperatures must be forecast to be excessive and quite frank;y that amount of CAPE & -LI in the UK would mean a mass rush to purchase new trousers. The storms would me monsters compared to what we usually see...

Totally agree with you in every way, i would probably be first in line for some new waterproof trousers but what a dream it would be if we did have a day like that.... It would be a day off work for me that's for sure  

[William Grimsley]

Just looking at the NMM run for Friday, wow is all I can say!

[SteveB]

What's it showing William

[Karl83]

1 hour ago, William Grimsley said:

Just looking at the NMM run for Friday, wow is all I can say!

How do you access the NMM charts, William? Friday does look like there will be some potent showers around for sure.

[Harry]

It is looking like a very convective period of weather coming up, particularly so from Monday right the way through the week!

The jet will be in play across S England in particular so the potential for some severe convective elements here.

Could be an exciting week I think.

Edited June 9, 2016 by Harry

[Harry]

2 hours ago, William Grimsley said:

Just looking at the NMM run for Friday, wow is all I can say!

Instability looks meagre (although there is some reasonable MUCAPE drifting north from the SW into SE Wales/S/W Midlands).