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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread 25/5/16 onwards


A.J

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Posted
  • Location: East Hants
  • Weather Preferences: Supercells n snow
  • Location: East Hants
11 minutes ago, SnowJoke said:

At least you were in the right place and no change of trousers needed! :rofl:

Ha, too right! Bit of an overreaction perhaps on my part, but did startle me! Was a close strike. 

Shame just saw another few strikes and nothing more, albeit much closer than the Slough storm earlier tonight. 

Just belting it down now but no more lightning. 

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Posted
  • Location: worcester (approx 54m asl)
  • Location: worcester (approx 54m asl)
3 minutes ago, MartinD said:

This year unfortunately it's not us but if you ever want to meet up for a drink and chat about weather i'm up for that lol :-) You can never have enough friends in this electrifying world!

thats a shame, once i got my new place sorted I may just take you up on that offer

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Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes, Buckinghamshire, England. 108.7m ASL
  • Location: Milton Keynes, Buckinghamshire, England. 108.7m ASL
3 minutes ago, paul_montague said:

Strike near Guildford so its not dead yet!!!

Everything is slowly decaying, GFS has CAPE disappearing slowly overnight with only a small pocket at 3AM around north Cambridgeshire, then slowing increasing again from 6AM on wards. If the little area of rain in north Cambs holds together it may well reinvigorate towards dawn with solar heating.

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Posted
  • Location: Worcester
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and tornadoes
  • Location: Worcester

So do we stand a chance of seeing anything exciting tomorrow in the West Midlands area, Your thoughts would be very welcome indeed...

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Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District

Grinning like a cheshire cat at the moment, I couldn't have been better placed for the Derbys/Cheshire border storm. Right in the clear-slot but with lightning striking west occasionally within a mile. Some big booms thrown in for good measure.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes, Buckinghamshire, England. 108.7m ASL
  • Location: Milton Keynes, Buckinghamshire, England. 108.7m ASL
13 minutes ago, MartinD said:

So do we stand a chance of seeing anything exciting tomorrow in the West Midlands area, Your thoughts would be very welcome indeed...

GFS showing precipitation in the west midlands tomorrow afternoon, along with a couple of hundred kilo joules of cape and a slight lifted index of -1 to -2. Possibility of showers but unsure if anything electrical will occur, perhaps with wind convergence and topography you might see something. Nowhere near the amount of latent energy about as available yesterday. 

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester (LE3)
  • Location: Leicester (LE3)

Just popped out of nowhere, this shower went from nothing, 40 mins ago, to this with a pink/purple core, with corresponding lightning (5 strikes) on Blitzortung in last 15 minutes!! Please confirm, and what the hell caused it!!! Everything else seemed to die off in last 2-3 hours, then this!!!!

Screenshot_2016-06-08-03-17-10.png

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Posted
  • Location: Nantwich, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storms, Extreme Weather
  • Location: Nantwich, Cheshire

Looks to be quietening down bar that small cell above.

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester (LE3)
  • Location: Leicester (LE3)

That small cell just appeared! Grew from small green/blue dot to that in 45 mins, it's now graduated to this....... What's next for this little growing baby? Leicester perhaps around 05.30?

 

It will wake me if it makes it.....

 

Sleep time, now, 03:42

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Well dry uneventful night here missed the boat yesterday. Should be a dry today so could be a long wait for the next stormy outbreak.

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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
43 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Well dry uneventful night here missed the boat yesterday. Should be a dry today so could be a long wait for the next stormy outbreak.

Nothing in Derby either, although i got my fix elsewhere. Still a chance today, although most models favour areas to the west of the Pennines.

Thundery showers look possible most days next week too.

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Good morning gang,

So to say I got lucky last night was an understatement..It all started around 10pm when some cells on radar exploded to the west of London along a Convergence zone that set up.

By roughly 10:30pm they turned electrical, and I mean they really fired up. At peak flashes ever 5-10 seconds with some amazing thunder. This cell continued to dump a load of rain and some spectacular lightning before filling in around 11:15pm.. 

Then, just as I head to bed I'm dosing of to sleep, I saw on radar further south and west a new cell had fired, although only short lived this cell was not elevated, unfortunately I didn't get much footage as I like to enjoy the storms, but my word the CG lightning lasted around 5-10 minutes before it collapsed..

Anyway, so I am laying in bed nearly a sleep huge flash of lightning instantly followed but the most tremendous crack of thunder it went right through me.

So now I'm back up at the window and as I stick my head out the window a pair of forks come right down in front of me and the thunder well, I can only describe it as the whole of West London heard it and me being under it felt it shake my bones. 

This cell then died very quickly and I managed to catch some flashes off the cell over Basingstoke way.. 

All in all a night to remember with a show lasting well over an hour.. 

Some stills:

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Note all the different colours of lightning, was like a disco at one point! 

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

More potential for something down here again today, but not getting hopes up, other than today this weekend offers some surface based thunderstorms but this time from an Atlantic flow so more likely for something to form more locally however details are still shady.

Edited by William Grimsley
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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

I'm not even bothering to see if there's a chance for me, because even if there was it's unlikely to happen.

 

Looks like my best chance now is from any dross that sweeps in from the Atlantic weekend onwards.

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
25 minutes ago, SteveB said:

I'm not even bothering to see if there's a chance for me, because even if there was it's unlikely to happen.

 

Looks like my best chance now is from any dross that sweeps in from the Atlantic weekend onwards.

Best way to go, Steve. Recently, I've not even got excited about thunderstorms, just gone to chase to see if I can find anything, which most of the time I can't. Something has changed from recent years, not sure what though.

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Storm & Convective Forecast

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Issued 2016-06-08 07:57:41

Valid: 08/06/2016 06z to 09/06/2016 06z

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE FORECAST - WEDNESDAY 8TH-JUNE-2016

Synopsis

Upper ridge will build in across the S/W UK between upper trough over the N Atlantic and upper trough over NE Europe and Wern Russia. A slack surface pressure pattern will cover the UK characterised by a warm and moist airmass which will be unstable to surface heating. Surface breeze convergence will trigger heavy showers and thunderstorms in places on Wednesday.

... W SCOTLAND, NW ENGLAND, EIRE/N. IRELAND, WALES, MIDLANDS, CENTRAL S and SE ENGLAND ...

Stagnant warm and humid airmass across much of the UK and Ireland, characterised by PWAT (Precipitable Water) values of 1/ to 1.4 inches will become unstable to surface heating in sunny spells, ECMWF indicates 300-900 j/kg CAPE developing across the above areas early afternoon. Breeze convergence will develop inland from NE Wales/NW England SEward towad SE England, with a combination of orographic lift and breeze convergence across NW England, Scotland, EIRE/N. Ireland ... to create forced ascent to trigger localised heavy showers or storms ... which will generally move SEward. Thunderstorms will be less widespread than Tuesday, due to increased ridging aloft. However, where they occur they will again bring a risk of localised flooding, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, hail and gusty winds. Given localised risk of flash flooding, have issued a marginal risk for parts of mainland UK in the above areas. Storms should fade after dark as diurnal heating stops.

Issued by Nick Finnis

Edited by Nick F
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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

Looking at the satellite/radar images from yesterday and having been sat under the storm that tracked across Bedford/Milton Keynes it appears very much like the storm was an MCS. This just goes to show that you can get organised severe thunderstorms without wind shear if there are enough of the other ingredients. CAPE values were very high yesterday.

Today CAPE forecast is lower than yesterday, but still very reasonable. There is also the addition today of some 30knts of deep layer shear which is a new addition over what we have had on previous days. Working against this their is a stronger ridge in place again, much like there was over the weekend and on Monday.

My take on this is that storms that do develop will be more isolated than those yesterday, and will probably not have the same level of intensity, but they will have more longevity than the storms over the weekend and on Monday. Most places will remain dry today but storms that do form will likely contain a lot of lightning, a lot of rain and will likely last some time before pulsing out. Met Office once again shows a small trough running from the far NW of England into CS England by early afternoon. Could be an interesting day for a few of us.

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Posted
  • Location: Epsom
  • Location: Epsom

Amazing and distant artillery sounding thunder last night from the slough area (heard in epsom) while it lasted it was impressive...great commentary from all and thank goodness for technology in being able to track as close as possible in realtime!

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Posted
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, rain, tornados, funnel clouds and the northern lights
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent

Saw this on the way to work (Tower Hamlets today). Multiple kind of clouds but this stood out. Is this AC?

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
1 minute ago, tempesta said:

Amazing and distant artillery sounding thunder last night from the slough area (heard in epsom) while it lasted it was impressive...great commentary from all and thank goodness for technology in being able to track as close as possible in realtime!

Welcome to the forum, it was a great day for most in the south east yesterday. I also enjoy all the commentary here.

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
Just now, Windblade said:

Saw this on the way to work (Tower Hamlets today). Multiple kind of clouds but this stood out. Is this AC?

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I think so.

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