Convective/Storm Discussion Thread 25/5/16 onwards

[Cloud 10]

19 minutes ago, Stephanie Starr said:

Any chance of storms in south Lincolnshire are tomorrow 

 

Lincolnshire always has a chance of a storm.

[Sparkiee storm]

Good luck for everyone who's hoping for  a storm tomorrow.

Does anyone know if the storms tomorrow could be organised?

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 07 Jun 2016 - 05:59 UTC Wed 08 Jun 2016

ISSUED 20:37 UTC Mon 06 Jun 2016

ISSUED BY: Chris/Dan

A complicated setup exists on Tuesday with various rounds / potential for thunderstorms through the forecast period. Synoptically, a plume of warm, moist air continues to advect north from the nearby Continent, capped initially by a notable warm nose aloft. However, it is likely that elevated convection will be ongoing Tuesday morning over the Irish Sea into eastern Northern Ireland / extreme SW Scotland, and perhaps also feeding into SE England from remnant overnight convection over France / English Channel - although the extent and amount of lightning activity with this remains questionable.

Otherwise, diurnal heating combined with low-level convergence (sea breeze and orographic forcing) with a shortwave trough nudging slowly NE-wards will allow isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop through the afternoon and evening hours, forming into clusters along areas of pronounced wind convergence. DLS is rather weak in the main, leading to fairly disorganised convection, but given slow storm motion, relatively high MLCAPE (700-1100 Jkg-1) and 28-32mm PWAT, any storms that do develop could produce frequent lightning, local flash flooding with rain accumulations of 15-30mm in 1 hour, and hail up to 2.0cm in diameter. Converging low-level winds and rapidly rising updrafts may allow a couple of brief funnels / tornadoes to develop.

Storms will gradually decay through the late evening hours, although may still produce lightning well beyond 00z Thursday across the East Midlands / Home Counties. The SLGT over the Home Counties may need to be merged with the SLGT over northern England if confidence continues to increase, along with perhaps the introduction of a MDT - trends will be monitored for this during Tuesday.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-06-07

[Staffordshire]

3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 07 Jun 2016 - 05:59 UTC Wed 08 Jun 2016

ISSUED 20:37 UTC Mon 06 Jun 2016

ISSUED BY: Chris/Dan

A complicated setup exists on Tuesday with various rounds / potential for thunderstorms through the forecast period. Synoptically, a plume of warm, moist air continues to advect north from the nearby Continent, capped initially by a notable warm nose aloft. However, it is likely that elevated convection will be ongoing Tuesday morning over the Irish Sea into eastern Northern Ireland / extreme SW Scotland, and perhaps also feeding into SE England from remnant overnight convection over France / English Channel - although the extent and amount of lightning activity with this remains questionable.

Otherwise, diurnal heating combined with low-level convergence (sea breeze and orographic forcing) with a shortwave trough nudging slowly NE-wards will allow isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop through the afternoon and evening hours, forming into clusters along areas of pronounced wind convergence. DLS is rather weak in the main, leading to fairly disorganised convection, but given slow storm motion, relatively high MLCAPE (700-1100 Jkg-1) and 28-32mm PWAT, any storms that do develop could produce frequent lightning, local flash flooding with rain accumulations of 15-30mm in 1 hour, and hail up to 2.0cm in diameter. Converging low-level winds and rapidly rising updrafts may allow a couple of brief funnels / tornadoes to develop.

Storms will gradually decay through the late evening hours, although may still produce lightning well beyond 00z Thursday across the East Midlands / Home Counties. The SLGT over the Home Counties may need to be merged with the SLGT over northern England if confidence continues to increase, along with perhaps the introduction of a MDT - trends will be monitored for this during Tuesday.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-06-07

thanks for this as always but just a quick q, you mention storms are likely to continue later in the east midlands, however much of the east midlands misses out on the SLGT?

[<<Ryan>>]

Can see the top of the small cell that's developed in the channel from where I am. A nice white cloud shooting upwards being lit up by lightning every now and again. I'm going to head for the coast and see what happens

[Chris.R]

6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 07 Jun 2016 - 05:59 UTC Wed 08 Jun 2016

ISSUED 20:37 UTC Mon 06 Jun 2016

ISSUED BY: Chris/Dan

A complicated setup exists on Tuesday with various rounds / potential for thunderstorms through the forecast period. Synoptically, a plume of warm, moist air continues to advect north from the nearby Continent, capped initially by a notable warm nose aloft. However, it is likely that elevated convection will be ongoing Tuesday morning over the Irish Sea into eastern Northern Ireland / extreme SW Scotland, and perhaps also feeding into SE England from remnant overnight convection over France / English Channel - although the extent and amount of lightning activity with this remains questionable.

Otherwise, diurnal heating combined with low-level convergence (sea breeze and orographic forcing) with a shortwave trough nudging slowly NE-wards will allow isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop through the afternoon and evening hours, forming into clusters along areas of pronounced wind convergence. DLS is rather weak in the main, leading to fairly disorganised convection, but given slow storm motion, relatively high MLCAPE (700-1100 Jkg-1) and 28-32mm PWAT, any storms that do develop could produce frequent lightning, local flash flooding with rain accumulations of 15-30mm in 1 hour, and hail up to 2.0cm in diameter. Converging low-level winds and rapidly rising updrafts may allow a couple of brief funnels / tornadoes to develop.

Storms will gradually decay through the late evening hours, although may still produce lightning well beyond 00z Thursday across the East Midlands / Home Counties. The SLGT over the Home Counties may need to be merged with the SLGT over northern England if confidence continues to increase, along with perhaps the introduction of a MDT - trends will be monitored for this during Tuesday.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-06-07

  I assume it's meant to say 00z Wednesday rather than Thursday? :-) 

[Greeny]

Nocturnal cooling certainly taking effect, I wonder to what extent it will go to.

[Frosty hollows]

Oh hello, what's approaching from the channel?

[Harry]

Awesome, I can see the cell in the Channel from here - some form of an orange glowing tower on the horizon which is flashing away nicely!!

[Greeny]

Just now, Frosty hollows said:

Oh hello, what's approaching from the channel?

I didn't mention that part cause someone already did but yeah its just a small cell at the moment surely sparked by nocturnal cooling but to what extent will it go I wonder.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

It's shifting shape a bit on radar but still there! Could be a nice little surprise, I wonder if there's anywhere near me I might be able to see the top

[Sparkiee storm]

BBC did show some storms getting into the southeast overnight, this could be the start.

[William Grimsley]

Well, looks like tomorrow is out of the question for me, certainly not going to drive 100 miles tomorrow. LOL. As others have mentioned, a nice little cell has developed in the English Channel, would be nice if that could be repeated to the south of here...

Having said that, BBC breaks out thunderstorms just east of here.

Edited June 6, 2016 by William Grimsley

[Ben Sainsbury]

We almost have an outflow situation in the Bristol Channel! (Backbuilding) I'm not quite sure how to describe it!

Edited June 6, 2016 by Ben Sainsbury

[Sparkiee storm]

Spoiler

Just now, William Grimsley said:

Well, looks like tomorrow is out of the question for me, certainly not going to drive 100 miles tomorrow. LOL. As others have mentioned, a nice little cell has developed in the English Channel, would be nice if that could be repeated to the south of here...

Sometimes there are surprises, or I might be being optimistic  

 

[Gordon Webb]

with it been forecast to be a little more cloudy generally tomorrow and with actually less cape and instability if my amateur reading of the GFS model is correct than today is that going to have any impact on proceedings or are different elements in play to make storms more likely which by reading other peoples posts does seem likely

Edited June 6, 2016 by Gordon Webb

[Frosty hollows]

17 minutes ago, Greeny said:

I didn't mention that part cause someone already did but yeah its just a small cell at the moment surely sparked by nocturnal cooling but to what extent will it go I wonder.

Looks like it's moving this way and not petering out for a change. Be a nice light show for the Kent coast!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Euro4 does show some showers hitting the coast.. 

[dragon falls]

7 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

We almost have an outflow situation in the Bristol Channel! (Backbuilding) I'm not quite sure how to describe it!

Might get something here later or has it lost the energy the Bristol channel is helping.

[Arnie Pie]

Just saw a distant flash here http://siptu.ie/media/webcam/

Be warned the cam is on some kind of pre-programed acid trip

edit Dublin

Edited June 6, 2016 by Arnie Pie

[Noahjoe]

I can see distant flashes every 30 seconds or so from the channel cell, with the tower lighting up an unusual shade of orange with each flash.

[Ben Sainsbury]

ESTOFEX Forecast: (No Text About UK)

[Greeny]

I need to say it just to throw it out there but the storm over France looks like a supercell signature, not classic perhaps an LP variety.

[Nick F]

Is a plume of increasing moisture spreading NW out of northern France tonight, isentropic ascent of the leading edge of this plume above drier NEly surface flow probably what's allowing the storm to erupt over the Channel just off Kent coast, any maybe outflow from storms over France too, be interesting to see if it grows as it drifts NW or other cells pop along the leading edge of the plume.

Edited June 6, 2016 by Nick F

[William Grimsley]

1 minute ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

ESTOFEX Forecast: (No Text About UK)

Nothing remotely close to me in the risk area shown, I'll just have to "Wait and *beep* see!"