Convective/Storm Discussion Thread 25/5/16 onwards

[Mark wheeler]

7 minutes ago, Carl46Wrexham said:

strike showing near Bury st Edmunds - genuine?

 

 

Hey you beat me to it . I saw it flash up and thought what????. It's not on there now so must have been alien aircraft :-)

 

strike showing again can you have LIghtning without precipitation?

Edited May 30, 2016 by Mark wheeler

[Carl46Wrexham]

Strikes now less than 50 per minute..ah well

[Stephanie Starr]

The strike came up on my detector to. Fingers crossed for south Lincolnshire late

[Mapantz]

Just now, Mark wheeler said:

Hey you beat me to it . I saw it flash up and thought what????. It's not on there now so must have been alien aircraft :-)

It's possible that an aircraft heading to or from that point, may have triggered some lightning that the ground based detectors picked up. The other alternative is that triangulation caused an error, if less than three detectors managed to pick it up, it does cause quite a margin for error..

The astrogenic map shows plenty of them, not surprising when there's that much activity going on.

[Carl46Wrexham]

40 strikes per minute and falling..

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Showers being pushed southerly when they hit the ocean if the rain radar is to be believed, this isn't helping them to make the crossing :-(

[alexisj9]

27 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Hey you beat me to it . I saw it flash up and thought what????. It's not on there now so must have been alien aircraft :-)

 

strike showing again can you have LIghtning without precipitation?

If this cloud is connected to the storms, and is also over bury St Edmonds, it's Slightly, and I mean very slightly possible . Some did report hearing thunder in Colchester so who knows.

[alexisj9]

Forget where the storms are now, we are waiting for the low  to move west, then the front will move west with it. I expect anything thudery to build near the coast when the rain gets here.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Halfway there. Come on you can make it! 

[Harry]

Storms are reinvigorating over the North Sea, activity seemingly picking back up

[Allseasons-Si]

There is new activity between the two now,could all this join as one?

also there is a new line of intense ppn just ahead of the main ppn

this could get interesting IF it holds up

the north sea is alive

Edited May 30, 2016 by Allseasons-si

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Go on north Sea.. Bring home the bacon 

[Nick F]

Been out for most of the day, so not really had time to focus on the potential coming out of the Low Countries overnight until now, suffice to say IMO we are unlikely to see the intensity of storms seen over the Netherlands this evening, though can't rule storms embedded in the heavy rain expected to spread west across the south N. Sea in the early hours. As a guide, the 500mb flow should be a general guide of storm motion around the mid-level low over NE France tonight. The cool northerly surface flow is NOT steering the storms, bearing in mind storms are rooted above a cool and stable boundary layer

 

Anyway, have issued a storm forecast on Netweather, may turn out to be a bust, but this is an unusual direction to get storms from. Closest storm event I can think of from the east, was in early May 2001, when a badly forecast storm system erupted over the Dover Straits late evening before drifting NW as an MCS, producing frequent lightning,  across SE England, despite the day beforehand being cool and grey with a keen NEly wind! Not saying this is likely to happen tonight though!

Storm & Convective Forecast

Issued 2016-05-30 20:53:26

Valid: 30/05/2016 1800z to 31/05/2016 1200z

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE / STORM OUTLOOK

Synopsis

Slow-moving upper low will be centred over NE France during the forecast period, a surface low will drift west across the Low Countries. A plume of warm, moist and unstable air aloft across Poland, Gemany and the Netherlands Monday evening, that has destabilised into mass of thunderstorms, will spread west towards eastern England during the next 12 hrs, bringing an increasing risk of heavy rain and isolated embedded elevated thunderstorms to eastern England Monday night / Tues morning.

... E / SE ENGLAND UNTIL 12Z TUES 31/05 ...

Leading edge of warm/moist plume advecting west over Low Countries is producing an area of active mutlicell thunderstorms across The Netherlands this evening, as isentropic lift (upglide of warm moist air above cooler NEly surface flow) generates strong convection. These storms are being further aided by a shortwave trough, visible on WV imagery, moving NW over Germany this afternoon/evening. This lift/ascent of warm moist air spreading west will continue to push an area of heavy convective rainfall and embedded thunderstorms west across the south North Sea / Low Countries / N France - reaching eastern England in the early hours of Tuesday. There is some uncertainty over the extent of thundery activity reaching England, however, ECMWF does highlight an area of CAPE spreading west across E England early Tuesday morning as warm moist low-mid level conveyor and steeper lapse rates edge further west from the Low Countries, with continued ascent of warm/moist air by isentropic lift and approaching shortwave moving NW oVER near continent. There is a risk of torrential downpours spreading from the east in the early hours across E and SE England leading to flash-flooding and accompanied by frequent cloud-to-ground lightning locally. Therefore have issued a MARGINAL risk for severe weather.

 

Issued by: Nick Finnis

 

Edited May 30, 2016 by Nick F

[Buckster]

great forecast as always Nick cheers

was there not another set of storms that came over from the East to hit Essex etc more recent than 2001 ? 

or am I really that old that 15 years has passed that quick!

[alexisj9]

4 minutes ago, Buckster said:

great forecast as always Nick cheers

was there not another set of storms that came over from the East to hit Essex etc more recent than 2001 ? 

or am I really that old that 15 years has passed that quick!

It tried earlier this year, but didn't make it across, was never going to, was interesting to watch lightning maps though.

[William Grimsley]

Still quite an active thunderstorm for the North Sea, my guess would be that it'll be thundery rain by the time it reaches eastern England.

[StormChaseUK]

12 minutes ago, Nick F said:

May 2001, when a badly forecast storm system erupted over the Dover Straits late evening before drifting NW as an MCS, producing frequent lightning,  across SE England, despite the day beforehand being cool and grey with a keen NEly wind! Not saying this is likely to happen tonight though!

 

Issued by: Nick Finnis

 

Yes I remember May 2001, I was at a Neil Finn concert in London and drove back to Fulham at about 10.30pm , the day had been quite cold around 10C with a lot of mist then about 11pm-1am frequent lightning occured

it struck a tree in the garden where I was staying with shotgun thunder, it did introduce very warm air though the following day was around 23-24C.

[Allseasons-Si]

A line of ppn is developing between the two now,lets see what happens,will it electrify?

i am using this radar as the netweather one doesn't pick that up yet

http://beta.meteoradar.co.uk/zoom/1242/887/bliksem?zoom=6#

Edited May 30, 2016 by Allseasons-si

[William Grimsley]

There is potential for the remenants of that rain to become thundery as it moves west due to low amounts of MUCAPE present.

Actually, re-checking more likely Tuesday, but knowing my luck it'll probably be just rain... 

Edited May 30, 2016 by William Grimsley

[Allseasons-Si]

It's certainly interesting watching this unusual event unfold

[steve86]

Id like to be on the east Anglian coast watching the light show. If visibility allows of course.

[Mapantz]

The composite radar certainly suggests heavy rain, doesn't suggest any hail though- low lightning risk I say?!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Nevertheless, this is a very rare event. Cannot remember a single storm from the East/Northeast here apart from one time in summer 2003 I think, late evening time (21:00-22:00). Was very astounded at how active it was too, and even as a youngster thinking how unusual it was to see storms roll in from the east, as opposed to the south or the west. Remember watching it from my east facing window and then move west over towards Leicester and Rutland. 

Have not seen the like since, not even close. 

Does anyone on here have any memories of it? 

Edited May 30, 2016 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[William Grimsley]

I'm surprised how I get somewhat excited over something that's not even coming this way (it is but it will end up being drizzly rain here).

Lightning still being detected quite frequently for a North Sea thunderstorm!

Edited May 30, 2016 by William Grimsley

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Interesting to note tonight that due to the unusual nature of this weather event the usually accurate adage of "red sky at night / shepherds delight" is - in fact - incorrect, as the red sky usually signifies clear air to the west (where the sun sets) whereas tonight the west is where the clear air went!

(Edit: I know ive over-simplified it!)

Edited May 30, 2016 by Flash bang flash bang etc