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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread 25/5/16 onwards


A.J

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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
  • Weather Preferences: Columus Bigus Convectivus
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl

Well the Sun is rising over Brum.....it will be interesting to see whether any warming of the upper atmosphere, will have any effect on the cells over the city at present

IMG_9731.JPG

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Posted
  • Location: Hereford
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Hereford
2 hours ago, Supacell said:

Saw some distant flashes at around 2am last night from the storms that broke out between Gloucester and Hereford but other than that a quiet night for me. I managed about 2 hours sleep overall in the car.

Awaiting the mornings model runs but currently my eyes are on Somerset from around midday. I'll be getting a strong tea and a fry up first though :-)

heard a couple of claps of thunder before it died away.. came as close as Rotherwas (maybe a mile or two south east of there by the looks of the strikes scanner). tho there was a stray strike around ledbury which my sister commented on (mainly because it made her jump outta her skin and she had to wake me up to tell me about it).

other than that looked like the rest headed up to Worcester.

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Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

Some early morning strikes in the southeast . As some showers already develop. Going to be a busy day.

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bournemouth

If this doesn't whet the appetite, nothing will!! 

Bournemouth 3rd July 2015

Epic storm - the world seems to be ending at its peak!! (I had a front seat view of this from the clifftop, but can't take credit for this excellent video) 

 

Screenshot_2015-07-04-00-00-43.png

Screenshot_2015-07-04-00-01-56.png

Screenshot_2015-07-03-23-47-41.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hawkhurst (TN18) Kent
  • Weather Preferences: All weather extremes
  • Location: Hawkhurst (TN18) Kent

Incredibly heavy rain here the past 10 minutes, surprised there's no t+l from it. 
Did hear a few distant rumbles in the early hours

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
28 minutes ago, Luke Best said:

If this doesn't whet the appetite, nothing will!! 

Bournemouth 3rd July 2015

Epic storm - the world seems to be ending at its peak!! (I had a front seat view of this from the clifftop, but can't take credit for this excellent video) 

 

Screenshot_2015-07-04-00-00-43.png

Screenshot_2015-07-04-00-01-56.png

Screenshot_2015-07-03-23-47-41.png

Love it love it love it!!!! 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
2 minutes ago, <<Ryan>> said:

Incredibly heavy rain here the past 10 minutes, surprised there's no t+l from it. 
Did hear a few distant rumbles in the early hours

Those cells are moving north in roughly my direction, with CAPE across this part of the world due to rocket this morning before retreating westwards through the afternoon. If we are to benefit from any storms it needs to be before 2-3pm I would suggest

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Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL

Morning everyone.

Got a view screen grabs from the videos I shot last night of the lightning to are south, although most of the lightning was up in the clouds some strikes were visible.

Apologies if the quality isn't great as I'm no expert in editing they were shot on the Nikon D3200 DSLR for anyone interested in what camera they were shot from.

lightning 1.jpg

lightning 2.jpg

lightning 3.jpg

lightning 4.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Bridgend, south east Wales [CYMRU]
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm
  • Location: Bridgend, south east Wales [CYMRU]
1 hour ago, Luke Best said:

If this doesn't whet the appetite, nothing will!! 

Bournemouth 3rd July 2015

Epic storm - the world seems to be ending at its peak!! (I had a front seat view of this from the clifftop, but can't take credit for this excellent video) 

 

Screenshot_2015-07-04-00-00-43.png

Screenshot_2015-07-04-00-01-56.png

Screenshot_2015-07-03-23-47-41.png

I saw that storm from Cardiff - it was like a christmas tree lightning up in the distance! 

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Sun making some glimpses now here in sarf London afternoon a cool grey morning so far, so may help pep the heavy showers sporadically drifting north over Kent and Sussex this morning. Not very electrically active so far and they may weaken before surface instability builds this afternoon across southern and western parts.

My convective forecast for today - best chance of storms probably west of London again:

Storm & Convective Forecast

convmap_280516.png

Issued 2016-05-28 08:09:58

Valid: 28/05/2016 0600z to 29/05/2016 0600z

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE FORECAST - SAT 28TH MAY 2016

Synopsis

Increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough to the west of Europe, with its base moving into western Iberia today, drives a warm and moist S to SWly mid-upper upper flow across western and Central Europe including the UK. A slack pressure pattern exists across the UK and Ireland today between high pressure to the N of the U.K. And low pressure centred just west of Iberia. 

... EIRE/N IRELAND, WALES, S ENGLAND and THE MIDLANDS ...

Scattered heavy showers and a few elevated thunderstorms will continue to edge slowly north over the next few hours across parts of SE England, slow-moving nature of these showers/storms will lead to localised flooding where they pass.

Then as morning cloud breaks up elsewhere by early afternoon, steep lapse rates aloft above a fairly moist boundary layer warmed by the sunshine is indicated to contribute to around 300-800 j/kg CAPE developing this afternoon across the above areas. Weak ascent aloft and surface convergence will likely allow further heavy showers and thunderstorms to develop more widely this afternoon in this zone of instability. Despite weak vertical shear, leading to pulse-type storms, slow-movement of cells may lead to flash flooding locally, also strong updrafts / high cloud tops may allow growth of isolated  marginally large hail. Frequent cloud-to-ground lightning maybe an additional hard to outdoor activities. Therefore have issued a MARGINAL risk for severe weather. Storms should fade after dark as diurnal heating supporting afternoon storms wanes.

Issued by: Nick Finnis

Forecast can be seen here too: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

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Posted
  • Location: Near Southampton
  • Location: Near Southampton

Great video there Luke. I watched that storm from Southampton, and in terms of lightning activity I've never seen anything like it in this country. I'm thinking of going storm chasing today, hopefully Hampshire region will be in with a shout

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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

Currently near to Warminster watching the cloud disperse to reveal some humid, hazy sunshine.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

I remember watching the Bournemouth pier cam and being amazed by the lightning.. some strikes were really close, and people were just walking around like nothing was happening LOL.

Who knew that those storms that started off the south coast would go on to move 300 or so miles over the country, into the North Sea and then towards the Dutch coast.

https://www.lightningmaps.org/blitzortung/europe/index.php?bo_page=archive&bo_map=6&bo_hour_from=18&lang=en&bo_year=2015&bo_month=07&bo_day=03&bo_hour_from=18&bo_hour_range=10&bo_animation=1#bo_arch_strikes_maps_form

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
2 minutes ago, Supacell said:

Currently near to Warminster watching the cloud disperse to reveal some humid, hazy sunshine.

Near longleat forest? your already all the way down here from Derby!

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Cell just NW of Brighton recently given out a strike on Atd. Showers moving painfully slowly and seem to die out as they head toward M25/S London.

Meanwhile, in France, was some supercells yesterday over central parts, more likely today: http://www.estofex.org/

Doubt many will be chasing in France though, given the fuel shortages :D

 

Edited by Nick F
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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
8 minutes ago, tomjwlx said:

Near longleat forest? your already all the way down here from Derby!

I drive fast :p

I was chasing around the area yesterday and didn't have much luck so decided to stay the night in my car so I would be well placed to reach the risk area today.

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Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
2 minutes ago, Supacell said:

I drive fast :p

I was chasing around the area yesterday and didn't have much luck so decided to stay the night in my car so I would be well placed to reach the risk area today.

That's dedication well good luck today, your in a good starting point, thinking the activity could be a tad further south today.

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
23 minutes ago, tomjwlx said:

Near longleat forest? your already all the way down here from Derby!

Supacell stayed in Swindon overnight if I'm correct! :D

Nevertheless today looking a great day for storms, working all day today so storms to others!

Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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Posted
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything unusual
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex

Not expecting any thunder here today, had some heavy rain with a couple of claps of thunder at about 3am this morning.

 

sky looks heavy to the west and north.

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
31 minutes ago, cheese said:

I remember watching the Bournemouth pier cam and being amazed by the lightning.. some strikes were really close, and people were just walking around like nothing was happening LOL.

Who knew that those storms that started off the south coast would go on to move 300 or so miles over the country, into the North Sea and then towards the Dutch coast.

https://www.lightningmaps.org/blitzortung/europe/index.php?bo_page=archive&bo_map=6&bo_hour_from=18&lang=en&bo_year=2015&bo_month=07&bo_day=03&bo_hour_from=18&bo_hour_range=10&bo_animation=1#bo_arch_strikes_maps_form

I've got a video of that MCS as it flickered away over the North Sea. Most amazing distant storm I've seen first-hand:

(excuse the rotating camera and soundtrack but I had to get rid of my inane narration!)

As I recall it went on past 4am! Could still see the atmos flashes from my Dad's place nr Woking

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W

seems to focus today is The SW of england , wales and northen ireland , met office have updated their warnings to included herefordshire and worcestershire and I again seem to be just enough E to avoid them again hopefully today convectiveweather and estofex seem to highlight similar regions for focus as the met office so that appears to be the place to be just so glaid I'm not there

good luck for those wanting storms today

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

Can't see any convection starting yet and the sun is rather hazy. I'm slightly concerned about the encroaching cloud from the east that's currently over Dorset, however it does seem to be thinning as we speak. I'd hope to see towers starting to my north within the next hour otherwise I'd start to get concerned. Met Office map shows a variety of thunderstorms breaking out with areas of interest being Cornwall, NW Dartmoor, central Devon and N Dorset. Good luck folks!

Can see some towers going up on Dartcom, but nothing here as yet, I think my plan is to drive to Honiton shortly, park up and review the situation then drive NW to Cullompton...

Edited by William Grimsley
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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

Hazy blue skies and sunshine with just a few fair weather cumulus clouds in Mere, Somerset. Feels very warm despite my thermometer only reading 18c. That'll be the humidity.

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
1 minute ago, Supacell said:

Hazy blue skies and sunshine with just a few fair weather cumulus clouds in Mere, Somerset. Feels very warm despite my thermometer only reading 18c. That'll be the humidity.

Where do you think you'll end up today, Supacell? I'm still confused as to which way to go. I was thinking of trundelling between Honiton and Collumpton but I may have to go back towards Exmoor again!

Edited by William Grimsley
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