June 2016 C.E.T. Forecasts

[Roger J Smith]

1981-2010 Daily and Cumulative Normals. plus Daily Extremes for June (1772-2015)

_________________________________________________________________________

Date __ CET __ cum CET __ MAX __________ MIN

01 ____ 13.5 ___ 13.5 _____ 20.9 (1781) ____ 7.7 (1802&1962)

02 ____ 13.8 ___ 13.7 _____ 22.3 (1947) ____ 7.6 (1991)

03 ____ 13.4 ___ 13.6 _____ 23.0 (1947) ____ 7.9 (1773)

04 ____ 13.2 ___ 13.5 _____ 20.3 (1982) ____ 8.0 (1871&1991)

05 ____ 13.3 ___ 13.4 _____ 21.3 (1982) ____ 8.2 (1991)

06 ____ 13.7 ___ 13.5 _____ 22.5 (1950) ____ 8.4 (1909)

07 ____ 14.0 ___ 13.6 _____ 21.6 (1846) ____ 8.6 (1814)

08 ____ 13.9 ___ 13.6 _____ 20.4 (1940) ____ 8.6 (1881&1914)

09 ____ 14.0 ___ 13.6 _____ 20.9 (1970) ____ 7.3 (1816)

10 ____ 14.3 ___ 13.7 _____ 21.5 (1970) ____ 8.2 (1821)

11 ____ 13.6 ___ 13.7 _____ 21.0 (1970) ____ 8.0 (1777)

12 ____ 13.9 ___ 13.7 _____ 20.8 (2006) ____ 8.6 (1841)

13 ____ 14.0 ___ 13.7 ____ 20.5 (1818,1989) __ 8.5 (1901)

14 ____ 14.4 ___ 13.8 _____ 19.4 (1814) ____ 7.9 (1903)

15 ____ 14.2 ___ 13.8 _____ 22.9 (1858) ____ 8.1 (1850)

16 ____ 14.8 ___ 13.9 ____20.7 (1858,1896) __ 9.6 (1869)

17 ____ 15.0 ___ 13.9 _____ 21.4 (1917) ____ 9.1 (1928)

18 ____ 14.8 ___ 14.0 _____ 21.2 (2005) ____ 8.1 (1855)

19 ____ 15.2 ___ 14.1 _____ 22.1 (2005) ____ 7.3 (1795)

20 ____ 15.1 ___ 14.1 _____ 21.7 (1846) ____ 9.0 (1795&1964)

21 ____ 14.4 ___ 14.1 _____ 22.7 (1817) ____ 9.8 (1903)

22 ____ 14.6 ___ 14.1 _____ 22.3 (1941) ____ 9.0 (1823)

23 ____ 14.8 ___ 14.2 _____ 21.8 (1935) ____ 9.4 (1823)

24 ____ 14.9 ___ 14.2 _____ 22.0 (1935) ___ 10.1 (1784)

25 ____ 15.3 ___ 14.2 _____ 21.6 (1935) ____ 8.7 (1835)

26 ____ 15.3 ___ 14.3 _____ 22.3 (1976) ____ 9.7 (1835)

27 ____ 15.6 ___ 14.3 _____ 22.8 (1826) ___ 10.2 (1862)

28 ____ 15.6 ___ 14.4 _____ 22.6 (1976) ____ 9.4 (1812)

29 ____ 16.0 ___ 14.4 _____ 22.4 (1976) ____ 9.7 (1839)

30 ____ 15.8 ___ 14.5 _____ 22.1 (1976) ____ 9.1 (1839)

[Bobd29]

Oops belated 15.6 for me please

[Summer Sun]

13.3c to the 1st

0.3c above the 61 to 90 average

0.2c below the 81 to 10 average

[Summer Sun]

12.5c to the 2nd

0.8c below the 61 to 90 average

1.2c below the 81 to 10 average

[Daniel*]

Incredibly late entry 15.8C please  

[seaside 60]

This may be a stupid question, aren't they always lol...

When we talk about the CET
What is the official definition 

As it seems that June could be below av up north and at times very warm down here, pos more than usual.

Thanks kindly.

[Summer Sun]

12.4c to the 3rd

1.0c below the 61 to 90 average

1.2c below the 81 to 10 average

[Chris.R]

Running at 14.7 C here for the month so far. 

[BornFromTheVoid]

The minimum today is 11.2C, while maxima look like being about 20C, so an increase to around 13.2C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

13.8C to the 5th (16.0: +2.7)
14.0C to the 6th (15.3: +1.6)
14.3C to the 7th (16.2: +2.2)
14.8C to the 8th (18.4: +4.4)
15.0C to the 9th (16.3: +2.3)
14.9C to the 10th (14.4: +0.1)
15.1C to the 11th (16.3: +2.7)
15.2C to the 12th (16.8: +2.9)
15.3C to the 13th (16.7: +2.7)

Above average temperatures dominating for the foreseeable future, but nothing exceptional yet, with no days coming within 2C of daily records or threatening the top 5 warmest for any individual day.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield a poor 10.2C so far.

[DAVID SNOW]

On ‎31‎/‎05‎/‎2016 at 18:51, Roger J Smith said:

16.0

 

Will post the table of entries about 0500h as I won't be in for the rest of the daylight hours here.

Thanks to you and J10 for putting in the effort to keep this great and interesting competition going.

And with 6 furlongs still to go, I can now, just about see you turning into the straight....

[Summer Sun]

13.4c to the 4th

Bang on the 61 to 90 average

0.1c below the 81 to 10 average

[Summer Sun]

14.2c to the 5th

0.8c above the 61 to 90 average

0.8c above the 81 to 10 average

[Roger J Smith]

On June-04-16 at 14:13, DAVID SNOW said:

Thanks to you and J10 for putting in the effort to keep this great and interesting competition going.

And with 6 furlongs still to go, I can now, just about see you turning into the straight....

Well also thanks to Summer Sun and Born From the Void who contribute a lot to these threads as well.

As to the horse race, nothing much settled yet, I could have a lot of hoofprints all over me at end of June if the warmth comes and goes never to return.

[Roger J Smith]

So I had a look at the CET daily temperature file and found the following facts about June, first half to second half ...

The mean for 244 years (1772-2015) was 13.8 C in the first half of June and 14.9 C in the second half, an increase of 1.1 deg.

The number of occasions when the second half ran cooler than the first half was 50 or just over 20%.

The largest decreases were these::

YEAR ______ decrease ___ first half _ second half

1997 _______ 2.7 ________ 15.4 _____ 12.7

1835 _______ 2.6 ________ 16.3 _____ 13.7

1813 _______ 2.5 ________ 14.9 _____ 12.4

1933 _______ 2.5 ________ 16.8 _____ 14.3

2004 _______ 2.5 ________ 16.6 _____ 14.1

1919 _______ 2.4 ________ 15.5 _____ 13.1

1963 _______ 2.4 ________ 16.1 _____ 13.7

1980 _______ 2.3 ________ 14.9 _____ 12.6

1982 _______ 2.3 ________ 16.7 _____ 14.4

1925 _______ 2.2 ________ 16.1 _____ 13.9

1940 _______ 2.2 ________ 17.5 _____ 15.3

The warmest first halves of June included 18.6 (1846), 17.8 (1822), 17.6 (1858), 17.5 (1940), 17.2 (1775), 17.1 (1970), 16.8 (1933 and 1950), 16.7 (1818 and 1982).16.6 (1896 and 2004).

The coldest first half of June (not a record under much threat) is 10.6 (1916) followed by 10.7 in 1909 and 11.0 in 1991.

Now, odd fact is that no second half of June has ever been warmer than the first half of June 1846, not even 1976 despite the average of over 20 in the last nine days, the second half average was only 18.4. That's the warmest of the 244 years. Second place here goes to 1826 with 18.1 and third to 1941 with 18.0, then in fourth 1817, 1846 and 2005 tied with 17.8.

The coldest second half of June goes to 1907 at 11.9, followed by 1823 with 12.1; then 1812, 1813, 1814, 1821 and 1972 all with 12.4, and 1981 with 12.5. More recently, 1997 managed only 12.7.

[Relativistic]

7 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

So I had a look at the CET daily temperature file and found the following facts about June, first half to second half ...

The mean for 244 years (1772-2015) was 13.8 C in the first half of June and 14.9 C in the second half, an increase of 1.1 deg.

The number of occasions when the second half ran cooler than the first half was 50 or just over 20%.

The largest decreases were these::

YEAR ______ decrease ___ first half _ second half

1997 _______ 2.7 ________ 15.4 _____ 12.7

1835 _______ 2.6 ________ 16.3 _____ 13.7

1813 _______ 2.5 ________ 14.9 _____ 12.4

1933 _______ 2.5 ________ 16.8 _____ 14.3

2004 _______ 2.5 ________ 16.6 _____ 14.1

1919 _______ 2.4 ________ 15.5 _____ 13.1

1963 _______ 2.4 ________ 16.1 _____ 13.7

1980 _______ 2.3 ________ 14.9 _____ 12.6

1982 _______ 2.3 ________ 16.7 _____ 14.4

1925 _______ 2.2 ________ 16.1 _____ 13.9

1940 _______ 2.2 ________ 17.5 _____ 15.3

The warmest first halves of June included 18.6 (1846), 17.8 (1822), 17.6 (1858), 17.5 (1940), 17.2 (1775), 17.1 (1970), 16.8 (1933 and 1950), 16.7 (1818 and 1982).16.6 (1896 and 2004).

The coldest first half of June (not a record under much threat) is 10.6 (1916) followed by 10.7 in 1909 and 11.0 in 1991.

Now, odd fact is that no second half of June has ever been warmer than the first half of June 1846, not even 1976 despite the average of over 20 in the last nine days, the second half average was only 18.4. That's the warmest of the 244 years. Second place here goes to 1826 with 18.1 and third to 1941 with 18.0, then in fourth 1817, 1846 and 2005 tied with 17.8.

The coldest second half of June goes to 1907 at 11.9, followed by 1823 with 12.1; then 1812, 1813, 1814, 1821 and 1972 all with 12.4, and 1981 with 12.5. More recently, 1997 managed only 12.7.

June 1846 was remarkable. The hot spell ended on the 23rd, with the period 23rd-30th June 1846 averaging just 15.5C, with the month as a whole still sitting head and shoulders above the rest (bar 1676) at 18.2C.

The period 1st-22nd June 1846 is what makes my jaw drop though. With a CET of 19.2C, this period was as hot as August 1995! Granted, it occurred over a shorter time frame, but we're talking about early June and not the height of Summer. The next hottest for this period is 1858, with a mean of 17.4C, a full 1.8C below 1846. The average for all years for this period of 14.1C looks pathetic next to 1846.

The third week of June 1846 (15th-21st) had a mean of 20.2C, making it by far the hottest third week of June on record. Miles behind in second place is 1893 at 18.6C, and third is 1989 at 18.4C. The average over all years for this period of 14.5C, again, looks feeble against 1846.

If the heat had sustained itself through to month's end we could have been looking at one of the hottest months ever recorded. Definitely the May 1833/ December 2015 of the June months.

Edited June 7, 2016 by Relativistic

[Summer Sun]

14.8c to the 6th

1.4c above the 61 to 90 average

1.3c above the 81 to 10 average

[Matthew.]

The date record could be a close one on the 8th. The min looks very high on the bbc for the area.

[Summer Sun]

15.2c to the 7th

1.7c above the 61 to 90 average

1.6c above the 81 to 10 average

[Summer Sun]

15.5c to the 8th

2.0c above the 61 to 90 average

1.9c above the 81 to 10 average

[Mapantz]

I hope it's OK to post this he here? Thank you to the main contributors to this thread. I like to keep an eye on the official CET as well as my own average, the last  three days have seen it take a big jump up here:

15.6°C compared to the MO regional average of 13.8°C

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 14.2C

[Summer Sun]

15.7c to the 9th

2.1c above the 61 to 90 average

2.1c above the 81 to 10 average

[Man With Beard]

A few days ago I was thinking the June CET might end up low 14s but looking at forecast temps for the Midlands next week, they aren't as bad as some models might look at a first glance. CET unlikely to be below 15C by 20th in my opinion - so any punts between 14.5C and even 16C could consider themselves to have a chance at this stage - all IMO of course!!

[Matthew.]

16 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

A few days ago I was thinking the June CET might end up low 14s but looking at forecast temps for the Midlands next week, they aren't as bad as some models might look at a first glance. CET unlikely to be below 15C by 20th in my opinion - so any punts between 14.5C and even 16C could consider themselves to have a chance at this stage - all IMO of course!!

Yes i agree. I estimate 15.2 to the 20th. If the last third was average it would take it up to 15.3.