June 2016 C.E.T. Forecasts

[Summer Sun]

15.9c to the 10th

2.3c above the 61 to 90 average

2.2c above the 81 to 10 average

[damianslaw]

9 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

15.9c to the 10th

2.3c above the 61 to 90 average

2.2c above the 81 to 10 average

A very warm start to June 2016 then, one of the warmest in a long time, but we may well have reached the high mark, and I can see the CET taking a slight downward turn in the coming days and perhaps holding steady thereafter, a finish in the 15's though most likely, an above average month a dead cert. Still believe it will be the best month of the summer.

[DAVID SNOW]

21 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

15.9c to the 10th

2.3c above the 61 to 90 average

2.2c above the 81 to 10 average

Hmm, I would expect a significant downwards correction, come months end.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today of 14.3C while maxima look like hitting about 20C, so an increase to 16.0C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

16.0C to the 12th (15.9: +2.0)
15.9C to the 13th (14.8: +0.8)
15.8C to the 14th (14.1: -0.3)
15.7C to the 15th (14.2: +0.0)
15.5C to the 16th (13.4: -1.4)
15.3C to the 17th (11.3: -3.7)
15.1C to the 18th (11.9: -2.9)
15.0C to the 19th (13.5: -1.7)
15.1C to the 20th (17.1: +2.0)

The GFS is still massively underestimating the minima, generally by about 3C, and is usually 1C under for the maxima too.
Anyway, a pretty variable 10 days coming up. 16.0C looks like being a potential high point for the month.

[reef]

It has been a different start to the month here compared to the CET zone due to an almost constant easterly component to the wind. Our average is a mere 13.2C to the 11th, which is 1.2C below the 1981-2010 average.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 14.7C above average for early June

[Summer Sun]

16.0c to the 11th

2.3c above the 61 to 90 average

2.3c above the 81 to 10 average

[Relativistic]

On 11/06/2016 at 11:21, damianslaw said:

A very warm start to June 2016 then, one of the warmest in a long time, but we may well have reached the high mark, and I can see the CET taking a slight downward turn in the coming days and perhaps holding steady thereafter, a finish in the 15's though most likely, an above average month a dead cert. Still believe it will be the best month of the summer.

Yes, certainly different to most recent Junes. The period 1st-10th June has produced some markedly cool periods over the last few years; the years 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2015 are all good examples. In fact, just last year, and in stark contrast to 2016, the CET to the 10th was just 11.8C.

The last time we were warmer than at present was in 2004, when the CET was running at 16.6C to the 10th, and the warmest recorded such period was a little less recently in 1982, with a very warm figure of 18.6C.

Edited June 12, 2016 by Relativistic

[Milhouse]

On Saturday, June 11, 2016 at 17:49, reef said:

It has been a different start to the month here compared to the CET zone due to an almost constant easterly component to the wind. Our average is a mere 13.2C to the 11th, which is 1.2C below the 1981-2010 average.

Apart from one day last week there has always been a noticeable coolness to the wind here. May be different though if the warm spell comes off at the end of the month, that is unless the high builds too far NE and drags in yet more easterlies.

[Roger J Smith]

Well, looking at the 12z GFS, would say that the CET will fall off to about 15.3 by Friday then if all maps verified from then to end of the run on 28th, the average for 18th to 28th would be close to 18 (with some days perhaps near 20) and that would imply 16.3 as we approach the end of the month. This warmer end of month scenario keeps coming and going on GFS runs, if the signal is not as strong (17) the average would reach 16.0. I think a good place to be at present is 15.5 to 16.5. But this could change.

[Man With Beard]

14 hours ago, Milhouse said:

Apart from one day last week there has always been a noticeable coolness to the wind here. May be different though if the warm spell comes off at the end of the month, that is unless the high builds too far NE and drags in yet more easterlies.

Sounds like the NE has really missed out. Complete contrast here, we've reached 22C on most days and even 24/25C on some. I haven't been monitoring my local CET too closely but I would have thought it was between 16-17C for the month - so a really good start to the month on the south coast (Though pouring with rain right now )

Roger, I agree, looking good for your estimate of 16C at the moment, perhaps a smidge lower?

Edited June 13, 2016 by Man With Beard

[Chris.R]

Running at  17.8°C for the month so far here. 

[Summer Sun]

16.0c to the 12th

2.3c above the 61 to 90 average

2.3c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

No change here 14.7c cool days offset by very mild nights.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today of 13.1C while maxima look like being in the mid to high 17s, so 15.9C or 16.0C on tomorrows update.

After that, th 06z GFS has the CET at:

15.8C to the 14th (14.4: +0.0)
15.7C to the 15th (14.3: +0.1)
15.6C to the 16th (13.9: -0.9)
15.5C to the 17th (13.6: -1.4)
15.4C to the 18th (13.3: -1.5)
15.3C to the 19th (13.1: -2.1)
15.3C to the 20th (16.9: +1.8)
15.4C to the 21st (16.9: +2.5)
15.4C to the 22nd (15.4: +0.8)

A clear warm trend in the latter half of the GFS, but some cool temps for the time of the year in the near term.

[Summer Sun]

15.9c to the 13th

2.2c above the 61 to 90 average

2.2c above the 81 to 10 average

[DAVID SNOW]

Gone, it would seem any real heat towards Junes end. (last week of).

So the CET now looking to end up in the low 15's .

Subject to change of course.

[Roger J Smith]

Based on 12z GFS I would say 15.8 to 16.4 most likely, while there's no absolute heat wave, there are quite a few warm days where highs would easily surpass 23 C with any sunshine. Usually temperatures run above normal when the 558 thickness moves north of any given region, both of the very warm spells so far this spring (early summer) have not quite reached 564 but that value does appear close to the CET zone on several occasions later in June.

I'm seeing perhaps 15.3 as a low point, possibly reached twice with a mini-peak between them of 15.7, then a slow rise in last week into the 16 range. ECM also looking quite warm near end of its run. Signals are not strong though, anyone's guess at this point. The only forecasts seemingly excluded are the top and bottom three or four perhaps.

[Lettucing Gutted]

So the curse of December 2015 has returned.  A very warm June looks practically guaranteed now.

[Summer Sun]

15.9c to the 14th

2.1c above the 61 to 90 average

2.1c above the 81 to 10 average

[Roger J Smith]

5 hours ago, Lettucing Gutted said:

So the curse of December 2015 has returned.  A very warm June looks practically guaranteed now.

For this month to resemble December 2015, it would have to start like 1947, have a mid-section like 1846 and end like 1976. Mind you the current pattern looks a bit like last December, only for the fact that 552-558 thicknesses are not that unusual in June. I would say that only May 1833 comes close to matching the anomalous nature of December 2015 when compared with the rest of the months of same name. The 1976 heat wave is probably equally anomalous except that it failed to dominate an entire calendar month (it was half as long in any case).

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today of 11.8C, while maxima look like being close to 18C, so a drop to 15.8C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

15.7C to the 16th (14.7: -0.1)
15.6C to the 17th (13.8: -1.2)
15.5C to the 18th (13.2: -1.6)
15.3C to the 19th (12.6: -2.6)
15.3C to the 20th (15.1: +0.0)
15.4C to the 21st (16.4: +2.0)
15.3C to the 22nd (14.3: -0.3)
15.4C to the 23rd (16.0: +1.2)
15.4C to the 24th (16.8: +1.9)

Starting off cool, but hints of something a bit warmer for the final 10 days.

[Man With Beard]

2 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Minimum today of 11.8C, while maxima look like being close to 18C, so a drop to 15.8C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

15.7C to the 16th (14.7: -0.1)
15.6C to the 17th (13.8: -1.2)
15.5C to the 18th (13.2: -1.6)
15.3C to the 19th (12.6: -2.6)
15.3C to the 20th (15.1: +0.0)
15.4C to the 21st (16.4: +2.0)
15.3C to the 22nd (14.3: -0.3)
15.4C to the 23rd (16.0: +1.2)
15.4C to the 24th (16.8: +1.9)

Starting off cool, but hints of something a bit warmer for the final 10 days.

Latest ensembles give last week of the month averaging around 10C in the 850s category - above average - so I'd imagine the final CET might be between 15.5C and 16C (before corrections). Very warm!

Thanks BFTV for the stats, by the way

[Roger J Smith]

Agree with all of the above and based on 12z GFS would say end of month 15.8 to 16.4 still. Some 18-20 days around 27th to 30th.Back in May the GFS was fairly accurate at this range although I think it overdid late warming by about 1 deg.

[DAVID SNOW]

Low 15s by the 24th seems likely, it really then does depend on the last week, which is Fantasy Island territory for the models.